smurison01

Hi Chris Some great insights there. I believe you are right in terms of outcome being binary, although my point of view is that if not on Friday, then after ANC conference (end 20 Dec) the downgrade will come. So i believe SA bond and CDS markets have priced or partly priced in this occurrence, although on the actual event date we probably end up with sharp knee **** reaction with the ultimate result being further weakness in ZAR and some forced basket selling as we get dropped from Citi World Bond index. In terms of the technicals, i think the relevance thereof is how you use them. Good technicals for me reflect the underlying fundamentals /economics and are not the actual cause of any directional movement. The price is the sum of all external forces and to me they currently support the view of continued weakening of the rand against the dollar. Obviously the catalysts are not just domestic (SA specific) but probably more geared to external catalysts and US monetary tightening theme. Against the EUR we have the tapering theme and the GBP we have the brexit theme but to me the trends to me currently favour strength against a weakening ZAR.