Hi Chris
Some great insights there. I believe you are right in terms of outcome being binary, although my point of view is that if not on Friday, then after ANC conference (end 20 Dec) the downgrade will come. So i believe SA bond and CDS markets have priced or partly priced in this occurrence, although on the actual event date we probably end up with sharp knee **** reaction with the ultimate result being further weakness in ZAR and some forced basket selling as we get dropped from Citi World Bond index.
In terms of the technicals, i think the relevance thereof is how you use them.
