[Gold - Buy or Sell in 2021?]

I bought into a Gold ETF last week, but am having second thoughts, after reading 2021 outlooks from the likes of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. I'll list the arguments for and against below. Please share your thoughts:

Arguments for:
Goldman Sachs expects that the price of gold will reach $2,300 per ounce by the end of 2021 (20% higher from current prices) because of concerns over rising inflation. Source: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-commodities-research-goldmansachs/goldman-hikes-12-month-gold-price-forecast-to-2300-idUSKCN24T1QA

Arguments against:
As expectations of future inflation rise, so do Treasury rates. In fact, the 10-year Treasury burst through 1% last year (after the Democrats took the Senate). Gold has historically been inversely correlated with long term rates. Interestingly, Morgan Stanley is bullish on inflation in 2021, and believes it could come sooner and faster than most expect, perhaps even as early as Q1. This would dampen the price of gold in my opinion.

[Social Trading]

If you're curious about how it works, check have a look at my video review:  https://allabouttrading360.wordpress.com/2021/01/03/my-etoro-copy-review-three-years-later/

[FX market, manipulated?]

Hey there, I also believe that institutional traders have an edge over retail investors when it comes to day trading Forex. They'll have access to more information faster than you and can execute traders at algorithmic speeds.

They'll also be content with lower returns (below 5%), whereas retail investors tend to chase high returns to earn a living. This can also lead retail investors to take on more risk than they should.

However, I think there's room for retail investors to trade Forex over longer time frames. For example, many observers expect the USD to weaken across most currencies in 2021. It isn't rocket science to sell the USD for EUR or CHF for example, before cashing in later in the year.  This requires a bit of fundamental analysis.

 

[Demo account versus Live account]

Hi Glenn, a demo account does indeed show actual prices, however, you won't experience actual trading conditions. This means you won't experience slippage or requotes, and won't get an opportunity to assess how good (or bad) your broker truly is.

Also, you won't experience the rises and falls in adrenaline that come with trading real money. That's important in my opinion because you'll need to learn to stay on top of your emotions if you are to become a successful trader.

[Trading ban]

I wonder to what extent these changes announced in the UK and US will take some air out of crypto-currency prices.

[Subscription market news websites]

On 06/11/2020 at 09:26, u0362565 said:

Anyone got any recommendations on market news websites? and if they're worth paying for. MarketWatch seems to have some good articles but you have very limited access without a subscription. Any good free ones?

I've used SeekingAlpha, Barrons, the WSJ and FT in the past.

SeekingAlpha has well researched articles and it has opened up my eyes to companies I wouldn't have considered otherwise. However, some writers may own shares in the companies they cover, and you'd need to take that in mind when you read their writings.

I like that the WSJ and the FT tend to have longer form articles about certain companies or industries that wouldn't get coverage otherwise. If I had to chose one, I'd chose the WSJ. I found some of their recent articles on NIO, Wizz Air and Southwest Airlines very well written.

Barrons isn't bad either for daily news, although I find their articles often lacking in depth. However, I strongly recommend Barrons' StreetWise podcast, which you can listen to for free.

[Covid and the Economy]

I totally agree with that. Switzerland's experience with COVID back this up. They succeeded in halving COVID infections this winter WITHOUT a national lockdown. Instead, they've implemented local changes where the diseases was out of control and health systems were under stress. But only minimal changes in the rest of the country.

[Tesla shares]

Tesla's share price has had a pretty wild ride this year, but NIO isn't bad either, up 1,340% year-to-date. Historical price chart is on fire: https://trustedbrokers.com/uk/stocks/nio

[Best markets for mean reversion]

20 hours ago, u0362565 said:

Hi all,

On average are Forex markets more suited to mean reversion strategies than say indices or commodities? And do you choose your market type based on the conditions at the time or do you steer clear of some on purpose?

Thanks for your insight

 

 

 

Hi - To answer your question, Crypto is my favourite asset class when it comes to mean reversion because it's the most volatile. It's a lot more volatile than Forex or even stocks. This chart is particularly insightful: https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-volatility-vs-other-assets/

[Brexit]

I've bought around $100k's worth of GBP/USD. If there is a deal, and I now believe that one is likely, we can expect GBP/USD to surge instantly to 1.40 in my opinion. This would bring that pair back in line with levels last seen 2 years ago. Keen to hear what others think.

[Autochartist Any Good?]

Fellow board members, if you have experience using Autochartist, I'd like to hear from you.

How have you used it to find profitable trading opportunities?

Or have you been overwhelmed by the noise?

Look forward to hearing from you.

 

[Question on Commissions]

Thanks for clarifying, this was also on my mind.