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Rintel

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Everything posted by Rintel

  1. Math says there is still a lot of downside risk
  2. Current Economic Leading Indicator Outlook: Always Look At The Big Picture The last 9 months have been nothing but epic in terms of the performance of risk asset if you have made some money great! If you have lost some, don't worry there is always a bull market somewhere. Given the current confidence and state of affairs, I think it's time we begin to begin to reassess our current economic situation. Bonds have been getting destroyed since the relation story started to take a hold late last year, commodities have been spectacular as inflation has risen due to base effects. The
  3. Nah I didn't write the paper, took multiple reads to understand the concept and I'm sure someone is going to one day tell me I'm wrong haha. Got a monkey brain my friend 😆. What I meant to say was I derived the formula as in I "borrowed" it . And yes there are assumptions impeded in the math also, Its not perfect because it doesn't seem to work on securities that don't have options data. Which is a huge limitation. I am currently working on with someone with bigger brains than I have to come up with a solution to fix that. Think of the ranges as moving targets , the calculation takes
  4. This Is Why You NEVER EVER Buy Anything At The Top Of The Range
  5. Oil Risk Range 14/04/2021 Risk range for Crude Bullish Last Price (60.96) Top Range 65.96 Low Range 58.50 Oil Volatility (OVX) last 35.26 Bearish Top Range 42.72 Low range 35.51. This is an interesting one because the oil price is near the low end of the range and it's volatility is at the low end of the range. One of two possible scenarios ; A) Oil vol keeps getting compressed and it blows past the low end of the range and oil goes a lot higher. Or B) Oil vol bounces off the low end and oil corrects a little more. I am not sure . Still
  6. That would be giving away the secret sauce😂. Jking. I can't give you my math because it's customised to my taste in terms of duration of investments, ( I can however tell you the principles and ideas behind the math. If you put it together you can build your own personalised one ( a major component of my model is actually on my profile page 😁) Price Observations ; Price moves in a horizontal range in smaller or larger time frames before moving higher or lower. The objective is to capture the statistical “best price” of a security by purchasing it at or near the botto
  7. Morning, here are volatility adjusted trading ranges for today ISF Last $678.3. ( 690.2-------661.3) MIDD Last. 2103. ( 2127-------2028) Vixx last 16.9 ( 18.1-----16.8) God Bless CA
  8. Doing The Least Amount Of Work For The Biggest Possible Return ; There Are No Original Ideas. History Always Repeats Itself. Part of the investing, is the grindy process of trying to generate new ideas. A lot of people think Hedgefund managers and money managers are more intelligent than the average person. I don't think so. Otherwise they would have figured out that rising rates as the economy opens back up is BULLISH for the economy. Rates rise as the economy improves so do commodities and corporate profits. Yes there is a point at which rates become too high and at which rising rat
  9. Here to help. Share with anyone who wants to improve their game.
  10. I was , but I find the CEO a bit abrasive a bit insulting and not to my taste . So I made my own model and do all the work myself.
  11. A Better Way To Go About Technical Analysis I have never been a chartist. I knew nothing about moving average crossovers, chart patterns, candlesticks and oscillators. Matter of fact in all honesty I still don't. One of my role models is Anton Kriel; the man manages almost 100 million in assets, runs an online academy, manages 1000 traders and is active on tweeter he is simply a beast! In his educational talks to students, technical analysis is the last 10 percent of his investing process and he only knows basic patterns ! I did that at first ( support and resistance patterns) and I w
  12. Spot on. The FX market is “influenced by policy makers through the purchase or sales of bonds “ their mandate is to keep the confidence in their respective economies as high as possible. That confidence is what the Fiat monetary system is based on, the moment that goes the system evaporates. If you recall a few years ago during Theresa Mays government, the key phrase was strong and stable? . That's their mandate. They can't let a currency move too far towards one extreme or the other. So if you wana make money on fx you need to extend your time horizon or take the other po
  13. Good morning. Here we are again. Friday, a day where bears have been taken out to the back of the barn and shot. As I have been saying, I am still quite bullish on the world economy. Things are moving along nicely on the vaccine front, Stims have been passed, Biden wants infrastructure and most importantly, we are coming up against some of the best comps in the history of economic data series since the 20s. A time will come when the tide will change and when that happens, my portfolio will look a lot different but for now the wind is behind us so we remain bullish. Looking at my Vol
  14. Are You A Market Tourist ? Before the lock-down I went to the Maldives with the woman who would turn out to be the mother of my first child. God bless her. She is the most patient/no nonsense woman I have ever known.She actually dragged me there knowing how much I hate traveling. Well not travelling per say more like packing . Whilst I was there on the secluded island I noticed that there were no "tourists" around. The beaches were empty except for a handful of people. It was pure bliss. It was the first time I ever saw a ''proper beach'' and by beach I mean the sea, sand and very littl
  15. Good morning ramblers ! Please see trading ranges below for the Ftse 100 and 250 etf; the ranges are getting tighter which means don’t chase the price wait for it to get to the low end of the range before getting involved ISF.LON (Bullish) 664.58-686.857 prev. close: 683.3 MIDD.LON (Bullish) 2046.494 - 2117.343 prev. close: 2110.0 Take care and good luck out there ! CA
  16. To clarify, I am in agreement with your post , my math says the risk reward is not worth is not worth it trying to chase this one.
  17. correction the VXN @23.15 and CNX1 @57054
  18. Looking at my vol signal for nasdaq volatility, the VXN is extremely bullish and at the low end of its volatility range (23.15) whilst very near the top end of its price range @57054. Whilst you are right that pull backs can occur and very probable at these levels , it is important to be cognisant that if the volatility of the VXN keeps getting compressed and stays compressed , we are blowing past that level with no pull backs.
  19. Day trading during periods when my volatility calculation tells me to do so; (When vol spikes or looks like it is going to be episodic ) , and investing/managing a long term portfolio when volatility is low.
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