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Everything posted by Rintel

  2. On the 27/05/21, I put this post up suggesting that taking some money off the table and not chasing prices higher was a better way to manage risk. Admittedly, there were moments over the last three weeks I began to doubt myself . But it looks like I made the right decision. I now have some capital to deploy into assets I like.... God is good 😂.
  3. https://twitter.com/Retailintel/status/1405548292071698435?s=20 Checkout the thread above. Hope it helps you in your investing/ trading journey. Take Care CA
  4. I thought vola would be higher by the end of the week... Was off by 6 days 😂.
  5. Quick Market Thread see the link , Follow me for regular updates https://twitter.com/Retailintel/status/1402975153382903814?s=20
  6. `Hi guys I have posted a short thread on twitter as to what investing opportunities we could be faced with over the next 6 months. This is based on the work of other analysts in the field of macro economics. Enjoy and good luck. https://twitter.com/Retailintel/status/1402611918586658823?s=20
  7. It’s been a while ! Sorry for any missed absence. I updated my MacBook and ever since, I have been unable to log into IG . I think the update has effed up my Mac so I have to take it to the nerds at Apple to see what they can do. Currently typing this on my phone so it’s gonna have to do until I get something sorted. Ok, now back to the topic at hand . How do I collect profits to ensure consistent gains and proper risk management ; it’s pretty simple for me . I use the volatility assessment of the asset I am trading or investing in as a guide for when to book profits. Check out the example below; Yesterday I was quite busy booking a lot of gains on positions that have worked. If you recall in March I was 30 percent down 😂😂. I can laugh about it now because like Stella I finally got my groove back and as to how, read on playa. Like I mentioned earlier, It's pretty simple. I use the volatility assessment of the asset I am interested in as a guide. When the volatility of the asset drops, I manage the position by taking some cash off the table. I don't sell all of it, I simply start taking some cash off maybe a third at a time. There are no hard and fast rules. But if capital preservation is your objective like mine, I take a third off at a time as the vol comes off. Check out the vol of the spy below ( log returns ) Those dips are periods where the spy expressed negative returns. My strategy simply waits for those moments and when the arrive I execute my buy orders. If you observe those dips eventually become positive and as gains start to materialise, I start to collect my profits as returns become more and more positive there is a rising probability that future returns will likely be negative. Therefore I take as much profits as I can without closing the entire position. This is done in the hope that correction occurs, which provides me the opportunity to buy more of the asset I like at a lower price ( if it's in a bullish trend ) . Rinse and repeat. If a correction doesn't occur, having banked a bit of profit, I let the rest ride sit back and observe. This is quite systematic prevents any fear of missing out. Understanding the volatility of the asset you are trading allows you to buy when others are fearful and sell when others are euphoric. That's it. Simple. That said when I look at markets today, euphoria seems to be the theme with economies reopening. In this scenario I would be cautious about chasing highs at these levels. I have been busy booking profits I don't think it's a bad idea to do so at this juncture. Why ? Check out the charts below.. What you are seeing are log returns of the vix and returns of the vix differentiated with fractions respectively. Historically, we have always had a slight surge in the vix when returns are this depressed. This is why I am very comfortable taking some money off the table without feeling like I'm missing out on any upside ( remember I a not all out, I still have some capital in) . This should hopefully workout should we get a correction as it will provide me with enough capital to buy if / when prices come down. Which I think they will. That's it from me folks, take care out there!! CA
  8. Ahoy! VIX down stonks up .......This is the way The market continues to remain bullish as the reopening continues. The bearish tilt everyone had 10ish days ago has since evaporated as we are now closer to all time highs than we were during the correction. I did say bears would get killed in my post here 👇 Are we due for a correction ? I don't know . What I do know is that the base effects gripping the global economy right now hasn't been observed for a very long time. Seeing that the VIX is now trading lower and could possibly go even lower maybe sub16, It is very important to not get FOMOed into buying or chasing prices higher. I executed some purchases during the correction last week and I am now looking to collect some profits slowly. Not selling all my shares of course just a little bit ( Remember I had a 30% drawdown in March before building my current tool kits which are now by the grace of God starting to pay off, hence my decision to collect some profits. ). If you recall I was thinking about the Energy Sector earlier in the week. See post down below. This is the refreshed data as of close yesterday. We can see that my spread calculation between 30d Implied Vol and Realised Vol vs the last 30 days has collapsed more than 70% to -2.65%....BUT in the last day or so it's ALOT LOWER and has jumped from -0.39 to -10.89% . This could mean that we maybe getting a good buying opportunity in the immediate to short term as realised volatility is alot higher than what the option market has priced in. Also, the oil volatility OVX time series is now sitting at a very very low point. When I put these all together, it tells me prices could go lower, but seeing as we are still in a reflationary and recovering economic playhouse, I would be comfortable buying the dip should we get one in the immediate to short term. I have developed a 3 month return matrix that I am currently implementing as another tool in my toolkit. It measures the return of an asset vs three months ago and color codes them so that a user can get more insight into the behaviour of the returns of any asset. ( Green = bullish , below = neutral , red = bearish) . Quite excited to see what insights I can gain whilst using this new tool . Check it out below I also did one for Cyrptos .... cuz why not ;-). Just like my other tools these refresh every day based on the closing prices of the previous day. Any who good luck out there guys Take care CA.
  9. @Caseynotes nothing gets past you... quick with the fingers lol
  10. ‘’I said I loved you but I lied’’…. Micheal Bolton The 90s was a unique time in music indeed . From Micheal Bolton’s mahoosive hits to the cooling off in popularity of Micheal Jackson the consolidation and rise of the girl power movement that gave birth to Celine Dion, Janet Jackson , Britney Spears , Destiny’s Child, Dido, Whitney Huston, Brandy and most importantly the multi million dollar music videos. Talk about going all out! Back on the good ol days, all you could do was watch bands live in concerts but CDs stole the show and you could soon have a side of movie to go with your audio. The music industry was booming. All an aspiring artist needed was to make one hit song, create an OTT music video and they could just print money. Then in the 2000s limewire, napster, bittorrent showed users a way to have access to these videos without the need to part with their cash…. and the industry collapsed, leaving only the best and most talented artists as the strongest hands who would go on to become the biggest names of the early mid and late 2000s. What does this have to do with my note this morning ? Well nothing. Forgive me, today, nostalgia washes over me and I day dream about the good old days where good heart-felt lyrics and song writing and producing skills were the most important factors in a musician’s career …. I said I loved you but I lied. Any-who, lets see what the math says about the markets today 🙂 Small cap growth is down on a trending basis as of this morning Vs Large Cap which is now outperforming on a 3 month basis. If you recall I initiated a purchase of the QQQs on the 17th of May. To date it’s up almost 3 percent as reflation continues to be the name of the game and economies reopen. China on the other hand, is underperforming. If you also recall I also made a public post on IG about how I thought China was becoming concern in the beginning of April . Now down on a trending basis, it is no surprise that cryptos are down too. Should the global economy slow down significantly expect to see some follow through in other assets as the scrabble for safety increases. Gold, the dollar and high quality , low debt tried and tested companies will be the winners should this scenario play-out. Let’s go through our tried and true idea generation process to see what opportunities await us this week. The VIX is back down again on a trending basis as the market continues to price in growth. This is bullish for stonks. We may be approaching the point where where should start thinking of banking some of those hard earned gains. Remember the point here is the grow my money slowly over time not looking for riches here, Just need to preserve and protect. With the SP500 higher on low volume vs the 1 and 3 month averages, plus volatility slowly coming off its time to be aware of any liquidity traps so we don't get snagged. Cyptos continue to bleed out on the roadside as institutions collect profits leaving a-lot of retail investors as bag holders . When I run my model on the space on ETH and BTC for example, The likelihood of the returns over the next few days having a NEGATIVE sign on them is quite high. Anyone bullish on the space would be wise to exercise some patience. Your time will come HODLERS just not yet IMHO. Financials continue to dominate as interest rate rises provides an extra tailwind to their performance with the XLF up 13% vs the last three months as of the time of writing this. As the days go by I will be removing old lovers who have underperformed from my portfolio and seek to replace them with new investing / trading ideas from that sector as they relate to the current economic conditions..... said I loved them but I lied...... Look out for a note on that. Thats it from me today folks . Take Care out there. If I find anything interesting will be sure to share it . CA
  11. No response so I guess I'm going ahead with it then.
  12. Hi Charlotte. Don't know how else to get in touch with you. But I have a question; Can members of the community post invitational links to webinars or organise short zoom meetings as a way for us to engage with each other and share educational materials in order to improve our skill set ?
  13. Talk to people on here. There are some good traders in the community they would gladly help you.
  14. Back at it again folks. Another day plus 2 hours of sleep :-). Life is good. Sometimes she gives you not what you want but exactly what you need. Having slept a full two hours last night, I feel like I am ready to take on the cosmos aliens and any superpower being in macro land. Until 10am when my mood crashes and the tiredness takes over of course :-). Not to worry thats not why you are here. Lets get on with the show. Todays dashboard update in the Energy space ( XLE) is showing some interesting outputs. Strong performance over the last three months. With a down day on volume yesterday vs the three month average, but up vs the one month average. Also sitting at the top end of the range. You know what to do…. Book some gains if not already booked. Plus, the spread between Implied vol and realised vol over a 30day period in percentage terms with respect to the last 3 days is now yuuuge @ 12.33% with respect to where it was 30 days ago it was 9.70% … that 30% differential should not be ignored. people are complacent and do not see the need for protection. So please if you have any energy exposure now would be a good time to book some gains. BTC is still s&^%$^g the bed down another 7.28% this morning. C’mon HODLERS don't let GOLD eat your lunch! Speaking of Gold, its starting to look attractive again up over 5% in the last three months as real rates have backed off a bit. Now is the time to start looking into the miners and precious metal space for good opportunities. If policy makers intend to financially repress their way to economic prosperity, then allocating some capital to the precious metal space is not a bad idea. Thats it from me for now look out for updates as the day goes on. Good luck boys and gals. follow me on twitter for more https://twitter.com/Retailintel CA
  15. All posts are free BTW. No need to sign up for anything
  16. Follow me on " twatter" for regular updates
  17. Wow . Why did you put the position on in the first place ? Just want to get an idea on your process ?
  18. I have written a full length post on my thoughts this morning on my twitter page check it out feel free to ask any questions ... Ignore the gammer and spelling mistakes 🙂 https://twitter.com/Retailintel/status/1394276394851577860?s=20
  19. In reflation, Canada generally does very well. So shorting the CAD based on lines on a chart is pretty risky.
  20. process check , mike check , paycheque..... I actually missed this move ... 😅 .... Very hard trying to juggle a 50plus hour week and trading ..... any way here is the follow up from my post on the FTSE from 11-05-2021👇 With the greatest respect to IG INDEX , it's not time to be bearish .... not yet at least..... Here is what the FTSE did a few days later.........
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