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Rintel

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Everything posted by Rintel

  1. @Caseynotes nothing gets past you... quick with the fingers lol
  2. ‘’I said I loved you but I lied’’…. Micheal Bolton The 90s was a unique time in music indeed . From Micheal Bolton’s mahoosive hits to the cooling off in popularity of Micheal Jackson the consolidation and rise of the girl power movement that gave birth to Celine Dion, Janet Jackson , Britney Spears , Destiny’s Child, Dido, Whitney Huston, Brandy and most importantly the multi million dollar music videos. Talk about going all out! Back on the good ol days, all you could do was watch bands live in concerts but CDs stole the show and you could soon have a side of movie to go with your audio. The music industry was booming. All an aspiring artist needed was to make one hit song, create an OTT music video and they could just print money. Then in the 2000s limewire, napster, bittorrent showed users a way to have access to these videos without the need to part with their cash…. and the industry collapsed, leaving only the best and most talented artists as the strongest hands who would go on to become the biggest names of the early mid and late 2000s. What does this have to do with my note this morning ? Well nothing. Forgive me, today, nostalgia washes over me and I day dream about the good old days where good heart-felt lyrics and song writing and producing skills were the most important factors in a musician’s career …. I said I loved you but I lied. Any-who, lets see what the math says about the markets today 🙂 Small cap growth is down on a trending basis as of this morning Vs Large Cap which is now outperforming on a 3 month basis. If you recall I initiated a purchase of the QQQs on the 17th of May. To date it’s up almost 3 percent as reflation continues to be the name of the game and economies reopen. China on the other hand, is underperforming. If you also recall I also made a public post on IG about how I thought China was becoming concern in the beginning of April . Now down on a trending basis, it is no surprise that cryptos are down too. Should the global economy slow down significantly expect to see some follow through in other assets as the scrabble for safety increases. Gold, the dollar and high quality , low debt tried and tested companies will be the winners should this scenario play-out. Let’s go through our tried and true idea generation process to see what opportunities await us this week. The VIX is back down again on a trending basis as the market continues to price in growth. This is bullish for stonks. We may be approaching the point where where should start thinking of banking some of those hard earned gains. Remember the point here is the grow my money slowly over time not looking for riches here, Just need to preserve and protect. With the SP500 higher on low volume vs the 1 and 3 month averages, plus volatility slowly coming off its time to be aware of any liquidity traps so we don't get snagged. Cyptos continue to bleed out on the roadside as institutions collect profits leaving a-lot of retail investors as bag holders . When I run my model on the space on ETH and BTC for example, The likelihood of the returns over the next few days having a NEGATIVE sign on them is quite high. Anyone bullish on the space would be wise to exercise some patience. Your time will come HODLERS just not yet IMHO. Financials continue to dominate as interest rate rises provides an extra tailwind to their performance with the XLF up 13% vs the last three months as of the time of writing this. As the days go by I will be removing old lovers who have underperformed from my portfolio and seek to replace them with new investing / trading ideas from that sector as they relate to the current economic conditions..... said I loved them but I lied...... Look out for a note on that. Thats it from me today folks . Take Care out there. If I find anything interesting will be sure to share it . CA
  3. No response so I guess I'm going ahead with it then.
  4. Hi Charlotte. Don't know how else to get in touch with you. But I have a question; Can members of the community post invitational links to webinars or organise short zoom meetings as a way for us to engage with each other and share educational materials in order to improve our skill set ?
  5. Talk to people on here. There are some good traders in the community they would gladly help you.
  6. Back at it again folks. Another day plus 2 hours of sleep :-). Life is good. Sometimes she gives you not what you want but exactly what you need. Having slept a full two hours last night, I feel like I am ready to take on the cosmos aliens and any superpower being in macro land. Until 10am when my mood crashes and the tiredness takes over of course :-). Not to worry thats not why you are here. Lets get on with the show. Todays dashboard update in the Energy space ( XLE) is showing some interesting outputs. Strong performance over the last three months. With a down day on volume yesterday vs the three month average, but up vs the one month average. Also sitting at the top end of the range. You know what to do…. Book some gains if not already booked. Plus, the spread between Implied vol and realised vol over a 30day period in percentage terms with respect to the last 3 days is now yuuuge @ 12.33% with respect to where it was 30 days ago it was 9.70% … that 30% differential should not be ignored. people are complacent and do not see the need for protection. So please if you have any energy exposure now would be a good time to book some gains. BTC is still s&^%$^g the bed down another 7.28% this morning. C’mon HODLERS don't let GOLD eat your lunch! Speaking of Gold, its starting to look attractive again up over 5% in the last three months as real rates have backed off a bit. Now is the time to start looking into the miners and precious metal space for good opportunities. If policy makers intend to financially repress their way to economic prosperity, then allocating some capital to the precious metal space is not a bad idea. Thats it from me for now look out for updates as the day goes on. Good luck boys and gals. follow me on twitter for more https://twitter.com/Retailintel CA
  7. All posts are free BTW. No need to sign up for anything
  8. Follow me on " twatter" for regular updates
  9. Wow . Why did you put the position on in the first place ? Just want to get an idea on your process ?
  10. I have written a full length post on my thoughts this morning on my twitter page check it out feel free to ask any questions ... Ignore the gammer and spelling mistakes 🙂 https://twitter.com/Retailintel/status/1394276394851577860?s=20
  11. In reflation, Canada generally does very well. So shorting the CAD based on lines on a chart is pretty risky.
  12. process check , mike check , paycheque..... I actually missed this move ... 😅 .... Very hard trying to juggle a 50plus hour week and trading ..... any way here is the follow up from my post on the FTSE from 11-05-2021👇 With the greatest respect to IG INDEX , it's not time to be bearish .... not yet at least..... Here is what the FTSE did a few days later.........
  13. This is why I think using volatility as an important input is a much better way..... It's not about predicting the markets, it's about proactively preparing for what maybe around the corner. Follow me on twitter for more updates. Took me all night to model that price action and it paid off “ biggly”. Take care out there CA
  14. Nah...... buy the dip.... Bears will get killed
  15. Hello ladies and gents. If you recall I posted this on the 27th of April concerning the FTSE. I recall emphasising it was time to collect some profits. A 2.64% draw down is why you never ever buy at the top of the range. This is the current update the FTSE 100. It has been fractionally differentiated so as to give it stationary statistical properties. This is where I like getting involved. I will look to make purchases around these levels. As always take care out there CA
  16. Hi guys. Wanted to thank you guys for viewing my posts and hope you have found it helpful . If anyone has any feedback as to how I can improve them to provide more help please shoot them here. God Bless CA
  17. Cant delete the charts in the bottom... ignore them 😀
  18. Good morning. Interesting day in the market yesterday. London had a flash crash . got traders spooked . Some ISM data was release and it showed a slight decrease in the economic momentum that we have had since the middle of last year. I continue to remain bullish, however I am starting to pay more attention to these data readings, I think at some point in the next 3-4 months, things could deteriorate and its important to be ahead of that. If my thoughts don’t come to fruition the response is simple keep buying stocks till the cows come home. If they do , then I Would allocate some capital to bonds and gold plus stay away from speculative assets such as cryptos. Anyway lets get on with the show. Commodities had a good day yesterday especially Brent which was up >20% three months to date. In the industrial space copper corrected 0.11% but up 28% in the last three months. Cryptos **** the bed all across the board with BTC and ETH down over 6 and 5% respectively. Bearing in mind that ETH is up over 100% in the last three months BOOOOYAAAA!!! The only Crypto that was up on my board ( granted it is a limited sample) was LINK which was up 8%. In the volaspace if you recall on today morning I warned that we could see periods of higher volatility. Well ladies and gents we are currently experiencing periods of higher vol. And as a result most 5/10 are down as of the close on Tuesday. This is welcome news for now as should provide the good buying opportunity I was referring to earlier in the week. That being said, I would like to point out a few things I found interesting in the implied volatility space. That table, is the implied vs realised volatility differentiated and put in percentage terms vs where it has been in the last 1,3,5,10 and 30 days. Future expected volatility is now trending higher on a 30 day basis. So Whilst we are bullish it is important to not get suckered into buying things at the top end go their respective ranges. The reason is if these green volatility premiums get realised and manifest into high/ realised volatility , you will pretty much be buying a top in your respective markets . So it is important to start paying attention . Are you near the top of the range ? Sell some and collect some profits. Charts BTC-USD Right still in no-mans land from April its lost some momentum as ETH has taken over the mantle of performance. ETH— unstoppable ( for now) For anyone who wants to get involved I think patience is key here . A parabolic move like this always corrects. ADA near the top end of the range and looking super bullish. Wait for a pull back. LINK to the moon... wait for a pull back DOGE WOW………. I was hoping that it's stationary returns would come back to acceptable levels but….didn't happen this Mfka touched it and went blasting off…. Remarkable .. Touched the top end of its range and said good bye. BUT we are not here to pontificate on missed opportunities were are here to risk manage and protect our capital. As per the process it hasn’t changed…. Wait for the price to get to the bottom end of the range… don’t chase resist the fear of missing out. Thats is why you have the math on your side. Thats it for now folks any special requests buzz me and I will look up any ticker you want . Peace !!! CA. Before I go one more thing ...... US treasury bonds are now lower than they were 6 weeks ago.......... as treasuries go so does inflation ... the crypto party may well come to an end soon but not yet... Plenty of spelling and grammar errors... focus on the ideas..
  19. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/05/04/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/amp/ They called it a “ Flash Crash” I call it the math. I recall warning that those levels were not a good risk reward play. Don't chase guys. There are always many opportunities.
  20. Last week I posted some model outputs for XLE vs Oil on Twitter. Since then the XLE has outperformed Oil by almost 100%. With Oil @ 5.9% and the XLE over 12%. That is what we call a good week. 😂
  21. For anyone paying attention over the last few days, if you recall I stated that the FTSE had a better risk reward on the 21-04-21 here I updated the model today here and it looks like we are right at the top of the vol adjusted range. I took a 22 day rolling average and plunged in a 1 standard dev I repeated the same calculation on a 5 day rolling avg( Upper and lower bound are respective standard devs) and it appears to be edging very close to it. I would not be buying up here. This is where I would collect some profits. Reflation and recovery are still I play BUT, let's not get too greedy. Hopefully we get a decent pullback to add some more. Take Care . CA
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