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Rintel

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Everything posted by Rintel

  1. I was , but I find the CEO a bit abrasive a bit insulting and not to my taste . So I made my own model and do all the work myself.
  2. A Better Way To Go About Technical Analysis I have never been a chartist. I knew nothing about moving average crossovers, chart patterns, candlesticks and oscillators. Matter of fact in all honesty I still don't. One of my role models is Anton Kriel; the man manages almost 100 million in assets, runs an online academy, manages 1000 traders and is active on tweeter he is simply a beast! In his educational talks to students, technical analysis is the last 10 percent of his investing process and he only knows basic patterns ! I did that at first ( support and resistance patterns) and I was relatively successful before using other indicators and TA , didn't do too bad but returns were not out of this world either. I did however I noticed that recently, my losses began to accelerate whilst using them. Not that there is anything wrong with indicators per say, its just that there is no standardised indicator that can capture the behaviour of price at granular/deep level ( for me at least) . I have always been obsessed with tinkering with things and exploring ideas about their inner workings. Problem with doing this with a live account is education in the form of losses can be psychologically draining, Taking losses with large positions whilst experimenting, comes with sleepless nights and short tempered flareups with family members. This is why I thought there has to be a better way to do this. A way that bears the least emotional and personal toll. So after 1/3rd of my account got wipped-out I turned to math. More on this later. In 1854 there was an outbreak of cholera in London. Nasty disease . It was thought to have been spread through "miasma" ; which is some sort of vapour or smell like entity or something. But a man called Jon Snow was skeptical. His skeptisism was so pronounced that he measured and mapped out all sightings / points where the disease was reported and came the realisation that the water supply in soho was the source of infection. The story goes that he marched into soho and broke the handle of the pump that supplied water to the area. Soon after the pump was destroyed the infection stopped . Upon investigation, it was realised that the water supply was within close proximity to a cesspit hence the source of the cholera outbreak. Jon was able to come to that conclusion by deliberately measuring , mapping and taking copious notes on the cases of cholera the he came upon. This is part of my process. I measure and map EVERYTHING that is relevant to my portfolio/ positions /ideas views outlook forecast etc. WRITE S&^$ DOWN . If it has a number, write it down somewhere. A note book is preferable but write it somewhere on something. Get into the habit. After writing things down calculate the % change on a historical basis. i.e. how has this number changed vs where it has been in the past ? it doesn't have to be organised at first, that will come later but get into the habbit. Be cognisant of the numbers and how the numbers change. It could be price, economic data points name it . Just write it somewhere you will be surprised the insights you come up with yourself before they become the narrative. Top things I like to have in my note book ( I have at least 30-40) is the prices or change in prices of common macro drivers: 1) The Dollar 2) The Move Index ( bond volatility) 3) The Vix ( spy vol) 4) Commodities / Oil 5) VXN ( nasdaq vol) 6) OVX ( oil vol) 7) Major market Indexes. These are the things that you should at least be watching. If you notice there are a few volatility drivers up there. That is deliberate. Before I explain why let me dive into a personal anecdote from my time as a child. I skipped school a lot as a teenager and as a result my grades deteriorated , as function of that my annual school report was abysmal as a function of that my mother seeking answers came to the school and found out that I was skipping classes which ended in her beating the dogS%$% out of me in from of my teachers and friends. That embarrassment I felt was the 6th derivative of a bad decision I made 6 months prior. 1st derivative was me skipping classes 2nd was deteriorating grades 3rd was my mum getting pissed off because private school is expensive 4th was her coming down to school 5th was the beating and 6th was the embarrassment . As an investor you have to start thinking in derivatives ie what will be the knock on effect if x happens ? I always did this when I thought about running my business but I never thought to do this when looking at prices. Which brings me to volatility . VOLATILITY IS THE FIRST DERIVATIVE OF PRICE. This is why it is very important to keep it on your dash board. The standard deviation of volatility or the VOL of VOL is the 3rd derivative of price. Understanding how that derivative behaves has gotten me out of a lot of trouble and put me on the path to slowly making my money back. Did you know that since 1999 the S&P500 price moves have a 96% correlation with the calculation of volatility for the Implied volatility of options that are at or near the money in the option market? Well I didn't know this either ..... MATH! . Understanding volatility is crucial as a risk management tool. It is the keys to the city. I have attached a paper below that you can all read to get more understanding so that you can build you own models. My model is built around the principles in this paper. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis/article/unknown-unknowns-uncertainty-about-risk-and-stock-returns/6E0E98349D20C1DCF67F3A0452361B80 Good Luck CA
  3. Spot on. The FX market is “influenced by policy makers through the purchase or sales of bonds “ their mandate is to keep the confidence in their respective economies as high as possible. That confidence is what the Fiat monetary system is based on, the moment that goes the system evaporates. If you recall a few years ago during Theresa Mays government, the key phrase was strong and stable? . That's their mandate. They can't let a currency move too far towards one extreme or the other. So if you wana make money on fx you need to extend your time horizon or take the other position when things go too far into one extreme. I am only 32 but remember I the dollar decline and the dollar inflation story that has been around for along time now. It's the same old story once you realise it's the new cycle, you learn to side step it and focus on what's important and that's the economy. Economic strength expresses itself in currency strength. Focus on that and you will get the big moces right.
  4. Good morning. Here we are again. Friday, a day where bears have been taken out to the back of the barn and shot. As I have been saying, I am still quite bullish on the world economy. Things are moving along nicely on the vaccine front, Stims have been passed, Biden wants infrastructure and most importantly, we are coming up against some of the best comps in the history of economic data series since the 20s. A time will come when the tide will change and when that happens, my portfolio will look a lot different but for now the wind is behind us so we remain bullish. Looking at my Volatility signal on the VIX and VXN plus a lot of things I own and these indices are coming up against the top of their respective trading ranges we may see a pull back so I will be reticent about buying up here. I put a note out this morning in the education section below 👇 It covers stripping away sources of unnecessary noise such as news headlines, talking points and my fav #WUFLU conspiracy theories ( which may or may not be true) and admonishes readers to focus to the most important drivers of markets which is data. There is also a spreadsheet tool at the end to help track the data sources so check it out. Trading ranges for the day SPY (Bullish) 395.465 - 413.78 prev. close: 408.52QQQ (Bullish) 318.763 - 341.741 prev. close: 335.08IWM (Neutral) 205.285 - 229.55 prev. close: 222.56XLK (Bullish) 133.228 - 143.284 prev. close: 140.42XLF (Bullish) 33.422 - 35.652 prev. close: 34.85XLE (Bullish) 45.836 - 50.891 prev. close: 48.51XLU (Bullish) 64.101 - 66.085 prev. close: 64.89XLI (Bullish) 96.19 - 102.12 prev. close: 99.54XLC (Bullish) 72.709 - 78.371 prev. close: 76.94XLP (Bullish) 67.841 - 70.93 prev. close: 69.04XLB (Bullish) 76.666 - 82.11 prev. close: 79.36XLY (Bullish) 166.26 - 177.304 prev. close: 174.32XLV (Neutral) 115.184 - 119.193 prev. close: 116.67XLRE (Bullish) 39.315 - 41.256 prev. close: 40.28XRT (Bullish) 83.032 - 94.208 prev. close: 90.79GLD (Bearish) 157.821 - 166.687 prev. close: 164.51SLV (Bearish) 21.905 - 24.079 prev. close: 23.62USO (Bullish) 37.221 - 42.845 prev. close: 40.82BNO (Bullish) 14.475 - 16.823 prev. close: 15.97TLT (Bearish) 135.223 - 141.142 prev. close: 138.01UUP (Neutral) 24.733 - 25.206 prev. close: 24.79VIX (Bearish) 15.269 - 19.372 prev. close: 16.95BTCUSD (Bullish) 55762 - 63788 prev. close: 5857 Good Luck out there CA
  5. Are You A Market Tourist ? Before the lock-down I went to the Maldives with the woman who would turn out to be the mother of my first child. God bless her. She is the most patient/no nonsense woman I have ever known.She actually dragged me there knowing how much I hate traveling. Well not travelling per say more like packing . Whilst I was there on the secluded island I noticed that there were no "tourists" around. The beaches were empty except for a handful of people. It was pure bliss. It was the first time I ever saw a ''proper beach'' and by beach I mean the sea, sand and very little human presence. Contrast that to Paris or London or New York in the summer. The latter environments are noisy, brownian and full of flash. They even have what Anton Kreil calls the "rat-tube" which is the mechanism that transports people from work to home and back through the dark underground in absolute darkness in a city that spends more than half of the year in the dark (London). The point of my anecdote is that if you want to be successful at this you have to focus on data points that actually matter. Jumping from headline to headline like a tourist jumping from high street to high street / attraction to attraction is a; unproductive and b; unprofitable. No disrespect to IG they have to make money but turn off their news feed its all a distraction. The platform should only be used for EXECUTION purposes. To have a better investing/trading experience turn off the noise and follow the economic data yourself. Following economic data points that lead the the economy enables you to see market moves months/weeks before it happnes. Economic data points and market prices lead the narrative. Simply put the numbers lead the narrative. Thefore follow the numbers don't trade based on headlines. Only Follow Trusted Data Sources I love hive mind communities these are where people pool together with the objective of solving common problems. I sincerely hope the IG community reaches this level one day. The power of the internet is that you can form collaborative unions with people and put heads/ideas together to solve common problems. Someone has created this spreadsheet and kindly put it out for free. Within it you will find a list of links that will direct you to data points that are relevant your investing and TIME SERIES THAT ACTUALLY MOVE THE MARKET. When going through the sheet focus on the Leading drivers/ Leading Indicators these drivers are what the market focuses on, changes in the ebb and flow of the time series ( the rate at which the data changes ) is what moves the markets. Where you can get the raw data yourself, download them bend them play with them and see what insights you can derive for yourself. There should be no whining no complaining and no laziness, we can do this if we put our minds to it. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jm739fcSZdPqks28oqA5eHAvSFZLMiXV/edit#gid=1736687311 Follow the link to the spreadsheet, cut out the noise and leave the tourists in the city. Good Luck. Trading ranges will be released shortly. CA
  6. Good morning ramblers ! Please see trading ranges below for the Ftse 100 and 250 etf; the ranges are getting tighter which means don’t chase the price wait for it to get to the low end of the range before getting involved ISF.LON (Bullish) 664.58-686.857 prev. close: 683.3 MIDD.LON (Bullish) 2046.494 - 2117.343 prev. close: 2110.0 Take care and good luck out there ! CA
  7. To clarify, I am in agreement with your post , my math says the risk reward is not worth is not worth it trying to chase this one.
  8. Looking at my vol signal for nasdaq volatility, the VXN is extremely bullish and at the low end of its volatility range (23.15) whilst very near the top end of its price range @57054. Whilst you are right that pull backs can occur and very probable at these levels , it is important to be cognisant that if the volatility of the VXN keeps getting compressed and stays compressed , we are blowing past that level with no pull backs.
  9. Day trading during periods when my volatility calculation tells me to do so; (When vol spikes or looks like it is going to be episodic ) , and investing/managing a long term portfolio when volatility is low.
  10. I am making money now with a lot less stress. I was taking too many big bets not managing my account well ( emotionally incapable) and being reactive rather than proactive. Currently, my returns are measured in basis points ( 1 basis point is = 0.01%) I allocate capital to shares ( zero leverage) 25 basis points at a time ( 0.25%) of my total capital standing today at 116 basis points at the end of march vs the FTSE which was up 195 basis points in that time. So I am slowly making the money back. The main thing I want to cement is massive returns are great but I am on a path to slowly preserve and compound my capital over time. This money belongs to my family and I cannot afford any more expensive lessons.
  11. Hi Guys ! I have created this page for new comers and anyone interested in my strategy of trading/investing. My Background My name is Courage I am a pharmacist and I have been investing for a few years. Tried the trading approach and it resulted in a 30% drawdown over the last three months! (I know!). The most embarrassing fact about my losses are that I lost money in a bull market! Having swallowed these losses I learnt a very important lesson over the last three months and that lesson is ; any strategy that doesn't have an input for or doesn't take volatility into account is garbage. I have been researching on a better way and I am fairly confident that I am on the path to finding it. My strategy I employ a macroeconomic as well as a fundamental approach with quantitative means to make investing decisions. What does that mean? It means I make my decisions systematically; step by step. Investing decisions are only made if certain economic and market conditions are met. I look at economic data points and using publicly available data, I narrow down where I would prefer to allocate capital. Then using my limited knowledge of volatility, I invest when the volatility of the asset I like is being compressed or bearish on a trending basis ( 1-6months ). Combining this with a calculated rescaled range for prices, I risk manage my investments ( At the top of the range I sell if trading, and at the bottom of the range I buy or accumulate shares) . I have used other methods whilst investing that involve analysing price and chart patterns. The problem with these are chart patterns are subjective, they depend on your own bias and can be interpreted in different ways and as for price, what is classified as cheap vs expensive ? One man's cheap is another man's expensive so again that doesn't work and if a stock is cheap, it is cheap for a reason likewise if its expensive. I simply run a customised volatility calculation and the numbers along with my calculated risk range tell me when to make purchases or sales. It's all math, no emotions, no feelings. Over the next few days I will be updating this thread with educational and principles and tools to help newcomers so that they don't make the same expensive mistakes I did. Looking forward to interacting with you all. God Bless. CA
  12. Good Afternoon below are my volatility adjusted trading ranges for the day. Submit any ticker requests and I can calculate it for you as long as I have enough data. SPY (Bullish) 393.982 - 411.175 prev. close: 406.59 QQQ (Bullish) 316.555 - 338.157 prev. close: 331.62 IWM (Neutral) 204.441 - 227.788 prev. close: 220.69 XLK (Bullish) 131.725 - 141.445 prev. close: 138.42 XLF (Bullish) 33.408 - 35.608 prev. close: 34.84 XLE (Bullish) 46.309 - 51.35 prev. close: 49.15 XLU (Bullish) 63.144 - 65.987 prev. close: 64.94 XLI (Bullish) 95.978 - 101.803 prev. close: 99.3 XLC (Bullish) 72.639 - 77.88 prev. close: 76.93 XLP (Bullish) 67.823 - 70.781 prev. close: 68.97 XLB (Bullish) 76.581 - 81.946 prev. close: 79.26 XLY (Bullish) 165.65 - 176.122 prev. close: 173.5 XLV (Neutral) 115.024 - 118.991 prev. close: 116.49 XLRE (Bullish) 39.335 - 41.379 prev. close: 40.48 XRT (Bullish) 82.656 - 93.462 prev. close: 90.06 GLD (Bearish) 157.218 - 165.143 prev. close: 162.76 SLV (Bearish) 21.835 - 23.806 prev. close: 23.33 USO (Bullish) 37.301 - 42.817 prev. close: 40.86 BNO (Bullish) 14.471 - 16.773 prev. close: 15.93 TLT (Bearish) 134.358 - 140.238 prev. close: 136.88 UUP (Bullish) 24.768 - 25.239 prev. close: 24.9 VIX (Bearish) 15.471 - 19.574 prev. close: 17.16 BTCUSD (Bullish) 55113 - 62332 prev. close: 56828 Take Care out there CA
  13. Good Afternoon peeps . Here are my volatility adjusted Risk ranges for today SPY (Bullish) 393.032 - 410.218 prev. close: 406.12 QQQ (Bullish) 315.822 - 335.269 prev. close: 330.82 IWM (Bullish) 206.225 - 230.352 prev. close: 224.31 XLK (Bullish) 131.229 - 139.923 prev. close: 137.69 XLF (Bullish) 33.28 - 35.433 prev. close: 34.67 XLE (Bullish) 45.833 - 51.185 prev. close: 48.98 XLU (Bullish) 63.106 - 65.874 prev. close: 65.02 XLI (Bullish) 95.799 - 101.954 prev. close: 99.76 XLC (Bullish) 72.378 - 77.351 prev. close: 76.34 XLP (Bullish) 67.918 - 70.797 prev. close: 69.14 XLB (Bullish) 77.305 - 82.807 prev. close: 80.65 XLY (Bullish) 165.771 - 175.936 prev. close: 174.02 XLV (Bullish) 115.213 - 119.07 prev. close: 116.75 XLRE (Bullish) 39.206 - 41.288 prev. close: 40.43 XRT (Bullish) 82.639 - 93.874 prev. close: 90.8 GLD (Bearish) 157.381 - 164.397 prev. close: 163.22 Good luck out there. Courage
  14. Bullish on BKNG Note on Booking from Bank of America. Buy, PO $2,950 ( $500 upside) 2Q investment thesis Booking Holdings (formerly Priceline) is an online travel business offering price disclosed and opaque airline tickets, hotel rooms, rental cars, vacation packages and cruises. BKNG is a leader in the European travel market and has an opportunity to leverage its Booking.combrand and business model to gain traction in North America, Asia and LatAm. It is pursuing a large opportunity in alternative accommodations. It is a top beneficiary of vast vaccine supply increase in Europe by 3Q and see upside from travel/transportation multiple expansion (Expedia, Uber). It could see a similar benefit as ROW data points show an improving travel environment over the next 6-12 months. We also see a valuation disconnect between OTA’s (which should have between 20-35% bookings exposure to Alternative Accommodations, or AA, in 2022), and Airbnb. We think Airbnb’s business deserves a multiple premium to OTAs given AA category share leadership and a broader base of individual hosts, but even when using a 33% discounted P/S multiple to Airbnb, our sum of the parts analysis suggests Booking core OTA businesses is trading at 11x a still depressed 2022 EBITDA. Our PO of $2,950 is based on 25x multiple on 2023 EPS Market Cap (mn) $$95,434.4 Price $2,329.84 P/Sales (2020)* 13x % of sell-side rated Buy 40% Short interest % of float 2% Source: BofA Global Research estimates, Bloomberg Catalysts: 1) Declining COVID case counts and evidence of European economic reopening and recovery in 2Q driving optimism on favourable operating conditions for Booking and subsequent earnings upside in 2022. We see Booking as a top recovery play given: 1) Big boost in vaccine distribution over next 6 months: Booking should be a top beneficiary of vast vaccine supply increase in Europe beginning in 2Q, with likely greater visibility on economic reopening in 3Q; 2) Growing interest in travel: Our travel data shows growing travel search activity, and Booking has indicated a ramp up in UK/Israel travel activity where vaccines distribution is more widespread; 3) Opportunity for Multiple expansion: Increasing anticipation of a recovery in the US has led to multiple expansion for Expedia and Uber’s stocks (multiple expansion), and we think Booking could show a similar benefit as ROW data points show an improving travel environment over the next 6-12 months; 4) Attractive risk/Reward: based on our upside and downside cases using 2023 estimates when travel is expected to more fully recover. Latest report: Booking Holdings Inc: Upgrade Booking to Buy as longer- duration play on vaccine rollout 22 March 2021 Risks: Downside risks are: 1) emergence of potentially vaccine resistant new virus strains or delayed European/ROW recovery due to delayed vaccine rollout or lack of stimulus; 2) Margins disappoint in the near term due to added marketing spend to boost bookings or investments for long-term air/connected trip growth; 3) Direct traffic competition from Airbnb in the Alternative Accommodations space and Google, Expedia & hotels in lodging sector; 4) Internet sector multiple compression driven by shift toward value/cyclical stocks, though we think Booking could still outperform the high- growth Internet group. Company Description: Booking Holdings (formerly Priceline) is an online travel business. Chart Currently sitting near the top end of its trading range. Maybe wait for a pull back before getting involved Thats all for now folks, Take Care out there. Goodluck with the grind today. CA
  15. Yep I tried it , its ****. A monkey can buy when one line crosses another.Working on building a model using python that has volatility as an input to determine price directions. Investing should be a lot easier. The model should simplify the decision making process when it comes to investing so that I can make better decisions in less time without any emotion. Hired a coder and working on some new ideas. Stay tuned. Read this paper for a hint. https://nicep.nottingham.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/2016-10-Casal-Bertoa-Deegan-Krause-Haughton.pdf
  16. Good afternoon people! The first trading week of q2 is upon us, March surveys very strong again, multiple countries with a new 12M high reading, 84% breadth reading, MT Global score 56.2%, US 59.1%, Euro area 62.5%, UK 58.9% Outlier is indeed China at 50.6% and 11M low reading. Should China keep deteriorating the AUD will continue to be weak. Check out monthly Production Managers Index below. Hopefully, the Chinese kick things back up and the global economy can start humming again. Over in Europe, ( *Face palm*) European politicians can’t stop digging no matter how deep they are in the hole. Everyone should know by now about the probability of infection and who are mostly in real danger. Overall survival rate is 99.85%. Yet, some regions cases rise again and they immediately lockdown again. National lockdown in France. Again. This causes or will cause disruption, but the last reading of IFO, INSEE, NBB, ESI and so forth was very strong. Germany, France, Italy, Spain – the “big4” – galloping higher in confidence. and so is the inflation outlook. With a higher inflation outlook plus robust consumer confidence readings, I maintain and reiterate my bullish out look. Currently seeking to add more exposure to energy, financials and consumer discretionary stocks. Below are calculated Trading Risk Range levels ( buy when the price nears the low end sell at the top end) SPY (Bullish) 389.852 - 404.825 prev. close: 400.61 QQQ (Bullish) 312.454 - 329.255 prev. close: 324.57 IWM (Bullish) 206.687 - 228.873 prev. close: 223.74 XLK (Bullish) 130.055 - 137.634 prev. close: 135.48 XLF (Bullish) 33.062 - 35.177 prev. close: 34.47 XLE (Bullish) 46.455 - 51.883 prev. close: 50.31 XLU (Bullish) 62.376 - 65.262 prev. close: 63.98 XLI (Bullish) 95.155 - 100.855 prev. close: 98.78 XLC (Bullish) 71.595 - 75.91 prev. close: 74.58 XLP (Bullish) 67.239 - 69.923 prev. close: 67.98 XLB (Bullish) 76.59 - 81.669 prev. close: 79.49 XLY (Bullish) 163.187 - 171.863 prev. close: 169.42 XLV (Neutral) 114.894 - 118.583 prev. close: 116.39 XLRE (Bullish) 38.944 - 40.963 prev. close: 40.12 XRT (Bullish) 82.056 - 92.403 prev. close: 89.51 GLD (Bearish) 157.23 - 163.888 prev. close: 161.98 SLV (Bearish) 21.991 - 23.727 prev. close: 23.15 USO (Bullish) 38.027 - 43.63 prev. close: 41.84 BNO (Bullish) 14.72 - 17.024 prev. close: 16.31 TLT (Bearish) 132.816 - 140.337 prev. close: 137.51 UUP (Bullish) 24.847 - 25.211 prev. close: 25.01 VIX (Bearish) 15.774 - 19.951 prev. close: 17.33 BTCUSD (Bullish) 51259 - 62012 prev. close: 58274 Good Luck out there . CA
  17. Happy Hols everyone. Below is an excerpt of a note by mi2 partners with my idea at the end. BoJ Trims April JGB Buying Operations The Bank of Japan announced its JGB buying operation schedule for April on Wednesday. The new plan calls for only one buying operation for JGBs with maturities longer than ten years during the month, down from two operations during March. In addition, the BoJ will cut the number of operations in the 5-year to 10-year maturity range from five to four and will pur- chase ¥450 billion in each operation. The BoJ is cutting back on its JGB purchases to make it easier for long-term rates to rise. At its last meeting earlier this month, the Monetary Policy Board approved a wider trading band of 25 basis points on either side of zero percent for 10-year JGBs. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGB rose to 0.120% following the announcement. Production Index Falls 2.1% as Semiconductor Shortage Bites The Mining and Manufacturing Production Index for February fell 2.1% from January at 95.7. The decline in production re- flects production cuts at automakers due to the shortage of semiconductors used in automobiles. Eleven of the fifteen sectors in the survey showed slower production, partly due to the lack of semiconductors and partly be- cause of supply chain disruptions caused by a large aftershock to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake during the month. The outlook is for continued weakness in March as the fire at the Renesas Semiconductor Manufacturing plant will make the supply of semiconductors still tighter with no relief in sight. Companies are also worried that a new spike in COVID cases may cause fresh supply chain disruptions during the spring. Nissan Motors (7201) Develops Cobalt-Free EV Battery Nissan Motors said it is developing a cobalt-free electric vehicle (EV) battery that should go into mass production around 2025. Current EV batteries use cobalt in the battery’s cathode. Cobalt is a rare metal that is largely supplied by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is an unreliable source of such an important strategic material. Nissan has replaced cobalt in the battery cathode with manganese. Along with other changes to the battery architecture, the company has managed to eliminate cobalt from its batteries entirely. Chinese companies have been developing cobalt-free batteries for some time. However, they have a big disadvantage in that they discharge much faster than traditional EV batteries which means the range of an electric vehicle using cobalt-free batteries is too short to be practical. Nissan says it has solved this problem and that its cobalt-free batteries have the same range as EV batteries now in use. By eliminating cobalt, Nissan says it can cut the cost of an EV battery from the current US$150/kwh to less than US$100/kwh by 2030. Comment: There is a lot of R&D going on in improving battery technology. You never know where the next big breakthrough will come from. Seeing as semi conductor shortage looks like it will be here for a while, I have compiled 5 of the top10 holdings in the smh etf to take advantage of the shortage one could add small amounts of these to the portfolio if we ever get a pull back whilst shortages remain. Or should we get dollar strength. Trading ranges are highlighted on the charts. Will be modelling future trading ranges and posting them here in the coming days. God Bless you with the grind
  18. Hi guys I have been doing some research on how to capitalise on the reopening of the US economy. I already own some recovery stocks which have been working and I think this play still has some juice left. Below is an a excert of a note for the company DAVE & BUSTERS ENTERTAINMENT ticker PLAY by Andrew Strelzik of BMO Key takeaways ''Recovery progressing and demand is there. Comp improvement through FY1Q, while aided by stimulus, is indicative of consumer willingness/readiness to re-engage with the brand as COVID-related restrictions are lifted and vaccines are more widely disseminated. Top quartile stores that are indexing 90%+ pre-pandemic volumes and are concentrated in less restricted regions with higher consumer mobility offer further evidence of strong demand as the environment further normalizes. Several near-term drivers to sustain building top-line momentum. In addition to the normalizing environment, near-term levers include 1) New York/California re- opening/re-ramping; 2) summer marketing campaign highlighting revamped food/bev platform among other inititiatives; 3) greater focus on marketing through digital/social platforms broadly; and 4) six new games including several big-name titles (Minecraft, Top Gun). PLAY should also benefit from likely reduced competitive headwinds as competitors slow unit growth and focus on core business recovery.'' Personally, looking at the balance sheet and analyst's future estimates, both the earnings and revenue estimates have been upgraded. These are the things I like to see before I get involved in a company. Momentum/Performance Last price as of close 01-04-2-21. $45.32 ====> VS 1D 1.55%. VS 1W 5.55%. VS 1M 8.04% VS 3M 57.1% VS 6M 198% Right now, looks like momentum is slowing down in the short term which could mean a buying opportunity. I have deployed 1/4 of my max position ( only about £300) will look to add more upon weakness or go full max if as it starts to work with a time horizon of 6 months. I added a volatility adjusted rescaled range to the price chart. based on the daily close , it looks like the top of the price range is about $57and the price is sitting comfortably near the bottom of the range. Hopefully, I get a meaningful correction and can get involved at a much better price. See chart below. Right now the trading signal looks bearish in the short term pithing a bullish trend therefore overall looks bullish.
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