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GaryB

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  1. IG quote a continuous price as a $ cash contract, so there is no "rollover" Or you can also trade the specific month contract with an expiry date.
  2. Consider the different reasons the share might be held, from the day trader simply holding a momentum move or the longer term investor holding for year on year growth. With the monumental amout of information available including ongoing investment analysis provided by the broker research and other specialised research houses, there is more than enough current information about companies earnings and expected earnings. When theses numbers are confirmed in line with a consensus of research there are no surprises and the shorter term trader investor would be looking to take profits and look for
  3. Staying with the 4 hour chart of US Crude: from the base set during March and the following rally into the $54 levels, clear reversal took place with the rejection period and lower high. The following price action gave plenty of indication of price weakness as the 20 period centre Bollinger band average provided resistance until the capitulation move back to $50.50. The following price action simply walked down the lower Bollinger band. All hindsight analysis. So here we are at the right hand edge with a potential buy set up unfolding with a very specific stop loss. On the 20th and 21st o
  4. A wild swing in the US indices overnight may be the tipping point for the bulls. From the outstanding ADP employment numbers early in the session lifting the DOW from yesterdays close a massive 282 points to the intraday high and followed by commentary from the Fed wanting to start unwinding the $4.5 trillion balance sheet, within hours the indice had finished 41 points in the red. The S&P500 followed the same pattern. This type of violent swing can be the longer term defining point for the bulls, as all long positions taken during the session get closed out or sit as unrealised losses o
  5. The play out of OIL in the 4 hour is complete with the 3 spike lows completing the basing pattern. While it can never be known when a price will reverse, the trading technique is looking for a set up that can be proven. The key to this pattern has been the move above the lower high $48.40. The first break over a high with 3 spike lows in the background. *This pattern showed up in daily Copper last week.
  6. Attempting to pick the low in a falling market is often a futile game. From a trading psychology perspective the danger is the trader gets it right and is rewarded for this bad behaviour by a profitable positon. The next attempt may be the one that does not turn around and simply runs the position and trading account into the red. Evidence based decision making is the road to travel in this trading endevour. One of the long standing observations in price analysis is the number 3. Technical analysis books are full of examples that show pictures of triple tops, triple bottoms, the head
  7. Matching time frames to build a trading system. When establishing a trading method based on the two R’s of risk and return, it’s management of trading decision based on proven observations that will dictate the outcome of any trading system be it a discretionary or algorithmic. Often the focus and reasoning behind trading are “how much can I make”? This internal thought process often goes one step further and asks how much can I make in a short amount of time? New traders are often blinded with the hindsight of seeing past data and are convinced that the outcome going forward will be the sam
  8. Price gaps occur as traders views change during the period the market is closed overnight or over weekends. On the re-open of the market the first trade is considered the sum of all expectation at the time where after market news is factored in to the opening auction. Many text books describe an opening gap as being a bullish sign that the buyers are out in force. This works as long as you know where you are in the price trend, and as no one knows what the future holds in price movement, then we can never know where we are in the trend. An observation lost on traders who insist on holding
  9. Oil just got interesting, with the Fakeout low followed by the inside period. bolliinger bands contracting with the price back over the $48.60 key level. Agressive price action traders have taken an entry on the move over the high of the inside period. The long range bar set at the close looks to be a short cover, Resistance at the middle avaergae of the bollinger would be montiored, still looking for a break of $50.50
  10. 4 hour analysis. US OIL. With the breakdown in US Oil below the $52.80 support, the price can be seen pushing outside the Bollinger band on two occasions.I have highlighted the WEEKLY support level of $48.60 ( established at the midpoint support of the primary move up on the 28th November) this chart now highlights the traders adage of dont catch a falling knife. The upper bollinger band has now turned back towards the price action suggesting the volatility is falling. With this type of price action underway look for a base to be set with an outside period or bullish hammer and pivot ba
  11. Technical analysis unprofitable? I am not sure putting the blame on the tools of trade is really the answer. After all it just reports price action from the exchange. Take the time to use the information a little differently than everyone else, after all if you try and see and do the same you would get the same results..right? Take the time and build some stats on how often that bullish hammer follows thru into a pivot point buy signal (btw 75%) or that down close outside range reverses the price action using the daily time frame in the AUD/USD cross (btw 100%). How often does that
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