01-03-2017 10:10 AM
Very interesting article on the persistent 3 year ranging of eurusd and why, after the round of Euro elections, it may bounce.
20-07-2017 10:33 AM
Big day for eurodollar, balanced on the monthly range top and waiting for directions up or down from the Draghi presser at 1:30 pm.
25-08-2017 07:55 AM
August bull flag consolidation, beware over weekend positions with Jackson Hole symp, Draghi and Yellen speeches and UK August bank holiday Monday.
EURUSD looking for a direction push and may find it as news from the symposium is digested.
List of key CB phrases to listen out for by Bloomberg.
EURUSD daily chart.
11-10-2017 09:22 AM
Is at an interesting level, after completing the head and shoulders pattern on daily chart now retesting the neckline. FOMC minutes from last meeting released today at 7 pm may determine which direction next for eurusd.
Daily and 1 hour chart.
15-11-2017 08:58 PM
Interesting pin bar shaping up on the daily chart at repeated resistance/supply level 1.1860 which would suggest a down turn to find new support/demand, most recently found at 1.1600.
24-11-2017 10:22 AM
Re-visiting resistance at 1.1860, set to break-out or reverse, not much on the calendar next week to provide a push up so may well return to 1.1712.
28-11-2017 03:18 PM
Having broken out on Friday price is now re-testing the breakout level. Snagged by RSI divergence. Will have to rely on bad US data this week if there is to be an attempt on 1.2090.
06-12-2017 02:19 PM
Bank of America say US tax reforms not fully priced in, targets eurusd 1.10 and gbpusd 1.26 by end of Q1 2018.
08-01-2018 08:37 AM
The monthly resistance level 1.20921 has blocked progress yet again and looks very solid, price now looking for support. The 1.19610 is previous resistance and may provide weak support but probably will not hold. The zone between weekly support level at 1.17172 and the 23.6 Fib around 1.16686 looks more likely. Failing that there is the monthly support level at 1.15538.
The 100MA may also provide a bounce as it has in the past, wait and see.
The main trend is still up but the MAs are levelling off and the weekly and monthly charts are shaping into a double top.
There is not much on the calendar to give this a push either way until Friday with US CPI and retail sales.
08-01-2018 02:58 PM
BoAML have just released an interesting short note warning of a potential Bull Trap risk on this pair. They warn that a weekly close above 1.2092 - 1.21 could well be a trap, so clearly they think this run up is over and price will soon be heading down.
09-01-2018 08:54 AM
You don't need BOA to telly you anything
You could have read the charts and price action. Price action works sometimes, but you need patience and longer time frame trading.Only reason why price action does not work, is "it is difficult to time the markets".
What Happens When You Try to Time the Market?
I can show you hundreds of examples why market timing screws up price action.
*** Intraday Price Action Scalping on FX Majors ***
09-01-2018 10:23 AM
I wrote yesterday "The 1.19610 is previous resistance and may provide weak support but probably will not hold."
That seems to be the case as the sharp drop off continues. Price now well below the 200ma on the 1 hour chart.
09-01-2018 11:24 AM - edited 09-01-2018 11:28 AM
Do you fink Tradecity can market this George Soros formula(real trader not forum fake)?
George Soros set and forget strategy
11-01-2018 08:20 AM
Oh look, the cut and paste fantasist has been back on this thread again, ignore. US PPI data out today, the euro was not able to capitalise on the dollar shaking news yesterday that China may cut or stop buying US Treasuries. Price has fallen back below 1.19610. The most likely scenario for today is a search for support.
12-01-2018 08:54 AM
US CPI and retail sales today 1:30 pm. Business Insider article hinting at a possible very low figure putting more pressure on USD and bond yields.
12-01-2018 10:28 AM
You do all this analysis.They you debunk trading psychology
Here is a way to test , why mindsets and mental states dictate the failure of technical analyses, price action snake oil , trend trading and trend losses and chop outs.
If traders were given the above price action , trend trading ,chop outs and fundamental analysis , if the they were in the following emotional states , what would be the end results of the analyses?
I know you will be dismissing my discussions, this is because you can not give a healthy debate.
12-01-2018 12:12 PM
It is very rare I ever follow any of your links, they are usually to some public forum site where there is a thread that matches your own jaundiced view on TA and educational material that I know to be false, hypocritical and usually irrelevant.
I do my own TA on a daily basis and share anything I see that I think may have some bearing on the day's market, I might also link to a story that may pan out to have some relevance on the day's events. If anyone doesn't like it fine, don't look at it. You seem to imply anyone who does as such is in some way trying to scam people. I have never been interested in providing trading tips and am wary of anyone who does, and I am especially not interested in calling trades as only stats over a large number of trades would actually have any relevance as to performance, and then again I don't actually need to prove anything to anyone.
15-01-2018 08:08 AM
Sits above 1.20920 for the first time since the end of 2014 having been lifted at the end of last week on data releases. Being such an important level and there being minimal data this week that might cause follow through I would be looking for a retest of 1.20920 before an attempt to move on.
15-01-2018 08:28 AM
Most people struggle when they are just buying the highs as it comes down to a simple coin toss. Most like to apply a little analysis to give themselves an edge.
15-01-2018 08:34 AM
Can you make your analysis a bit more professional by adding entry point, price action , few more indicators, a few more moving averages.Don't talk psychology in those analysis.
Thanks for analysis.
24-01-2018 08:29 AM
Continuing it's climb upward after prolonged sideways period, currently respecting the 100 MA on the 5 min but so far unable to clear prior high at 1.2335. Good correlation analysis @mostlyharmless, new week new scenario.
25-01-2018 12:10 PM
eurusd happily ranging while awaiting a Draghi sensation but the chart is setting good levels to bear in mind. The problem with pressers is that price can reverse on each sentence and this one usually goes on for 3/4 of an hour. Usually worth holding off til some kind of consensus is reached.
01-02-2018 12:07 PM
Monthly chart sees trendline resistance dead ahead. Strong January overcame the 5 month resistance (and prior support) level 1.2092, will be interesting to see how this plays out.
16-02-2018 08:46 AM
Slightly off topic but... I never get the logic of MA's or EMA's (admitidly I've never really looked into it much). But why pick arbitry 'x' numbers of days.
Why 7 or 21 for example, when the candles will only print on actual market open trading days, so why not 5 or 15 for the '1 week and 3 weeks worth'? Why three weeks anyway, and now 4?
Why 100 and 200 days, rather than 252 which is the number of trading days in a year (generally)?
16-02-2018 10:02 AM
Hi @247trader, good question. MA's are the basis of nearly all indicators you will see on any drop down list, sure they may have been through some convoluted math but the origin of most is the humble MA.
MA's are obviously a lagging indicator as most are but they do provide historic and up to the tick information on trend direction, and on momentum by the increasing or decreasing degree of angle of slope. They are often also used as dynamic support lines.
Which one to choose is the key question, the answer is to experiment to find a best fit for whatever time frame you are looking at and which market you are trading. As with any indicator you are trying to figure what the market movers are using (and they will be using them) so zoom out and see which ones are being used for support in a trend. Common favourites are 20, 50, 100, 200. SMA's tend to be used by the older traders on established markets such as stocks, EMA's tend to be used by younger traders on newer markets such as FX and crypto.
This is not an exhaustive appraisal of MA's but just thoughts off the top of my head based on my own experience. No indicator will determine the future but if enough large players are using one they will become a sort of 'self fulfilling prophesy'.
So again, the key is to zoom out and see if one is relevant, if not move on and look for some thing else.
a month ago
Did break down through 1.2300, now looking at prior low support level 1.2275, a successful break down here would target the weekly support level 1.2200.
3 weeks ago
eurusd sitting at a pivotal point, a break either way could signal a larger move. A eurusd long is IG's 'trade of the week' but ran into trouble yesterday on new Fed chair Powell's testimony.
2 weeks ago
A reversal pattern here would be in keeping with the monthly chart where price has run into trendline resistance. Will probably depend on how the US Dollar scenario plays out which is currently sitting just 100 points below major resistance having looked to have bottomed out over the last 7 weeks.
Interesting break down out of range on the 1 hour chart yesterday, currently retesting the range bottom and trying to decided which why to go. FOMC decision this evening with high prediction of a rate rise so we may see euro test lower in anticipation.