a month ago
Good point, and thanks for contributing, i think that perhaps though there is a lot of work gone into the commentary many will still find it all a bit cryptic especially if they are not well versed in binaries and ladders etc. Perhaps you could point to some good educational material which would enable a better understanding of the basics. Also useful to know is how are you using the AUS200/S+P (XJO) and the AUS200 Futures (SPI) to help in the decision making?
a month ago
Hi @Caseynotes Thanks for the post and good point. I will try and add some simple ideas/concepts/basics in the next days to help. I don't know of any educational material to link to sorry, and I don't think I could teach how I watch the SPI in detail - mostly intuitive these days. I thought of branching out into the DAX/FTSE or Dow (concepts might carry over), but haven't the time.
It might be helpful for me to try and outline some of the thinking for digital 100's - it is a bit different to futures/CFD's but once you've taken the red pill....
But sorry for rabbiting on while not being helpful.
a month ago
@Zero, thanks for any additional input you can muster. I understand the problem of trying to teach and have mentioned before how some skills are just not transferable and so learning by experience is the way but any tips and clues would be most helpful.
As you say, to outline some of the thinking behind the decisions would also be most helpful to the many readers of the thread, thanks.
(on the ed vids page slide the slider along a fifth of the way to find the digi 100 vid.
a month ago
A one-move-wonder sort of day for the SPI, which is not uncommon. Early trading was a bit confused, with a small rally fading to a low, over an hour or so (a few skirmishes up and down, but a tight 15pt range). Then 12pm and China seemed to give us the bid as we raced higher by about 25pts. Then we ranged at this level into 1pm, with some selling at these higher prices. I expected that and spied some value with the up 30-40 range binary. It was a buy at 51 (probably 45-55 during the 20mins till expiry) with the XJO at +31, 12:38pm. It was cheap because the surge seemed out of the ordinary and IG's pricing seemed to expect a slight pullback - which is common sense, but not what happened into 1pm. XJO 5984.40 up 30.80.
Then we relaxed a touch, but the buying kicked in after 2pm, taking the XJO and SPI to new highs by a few points. Ranging again at these new levels, tight range 10pts. Decent buying strength, which you'd expect to hold up into the close.
China seemed to be the driving force, up 0.7% like the XJO (0.6%). Dow futures were also up 30 early, to 50 after 1pm, and then/now 80-ish 3:51pm. The Nikkei was positive but not interested. DAX futures up 29, FTSE up 13. $AUD down 150pips, not much really.
On the cash market the big banks are up 1% or more, and BHP down a little while RIO up a little. End of month today, so that might be influencing some of the trading decisions globally. Some cheapish binaries now, 7mins to go. The 5985 ladder 45 buy, and the 30-40 range a buy at 49, while the 20-30 range is the same, 49 buy. XJO +30.40 at 5984.00.
Seeing as it is so borderline, and 1pt might be significant, it is often better to wait and watch until closer till expiry. You will probably get similar prices. There has been slight selling pressure in the last 10mins, yet whether that is enough to offset the general PM trend is the question.
a month ago
Waiting often is the better trade, and this arvo it was. It did give better prices, but for shorts. However that would have been a bit of a on the spot intuition. I noted a 58 sell for the 5985 ladder. IG upped their prices quite quickly - while I was posting (making my post redundant before I posted it!), so the cheap binaries would have been overpriced and not worth trading. But the selling pressure, and internal dynamics of the SPI and XJO were making it an even bet buy or sell.
Closed 5982.70 yet the SPI was pretty much unch. One of those tricky closes.
The real action was after the cash closed with really serious heavy selling (end of month?) knocking the SPI down. It since bounced back, and the size of the move was huge, but the short sharp dump was noticeable.
Not much of a reaction from US futures in my opinion to the Korean news over the weekend. See what tonight brings...
4 weeks ago
I'll give you grandmother.... As if the SPI/XJO heard that remark as it rallied higher today despite the weak overnight lead and general flat-weak markets in Asia.
On the open we rallied hard 22pts, had a breather while the cash market opened, then pulled back a bit before surging higher. I expected a ranging start (so not a fall as the Dow would have suggested) but not the surge - that put my expectations off just a bit so I sat on the sidelines. Come 12pm and 54pts higher, the SPI ranged in a 10pt range, with selling kicking in there and then. It was setting up for some nice binaries, with the 6015 hourly ladder binary a sell at 51 12:50pm and the up 20-30 range binary a buy at 41 (too cheap!) 12:55pm. Good (luck not skill) timing as at 12:56 the market got hit 2 pts which dropped the XJO from +30.40 to +28.70. Weirdest thing it stayed there for 2 minutes! Work that out. 1pm binaries expired in the money at 100 XJO6011.90 +29.20.
After lunch the market ranged at high, with selling being absorbed by big players. Tight range, and controlled moves. There was a clear market and day high at about 2:41pm which you could take to the bank. Instead at 3:16pm there was a really (too) cheap binary - up 30-40 daily for 30 buy. A long way out but with my expectations it was the best time to buy. XJO was +29 at the time.
The range is continuing into the close.
Dow has been up about 50 most of the day, but was only +25 say before our surge. Nothing else followed. The Nikkei down about 40 (was -110 early) and China down about 23. $AUD up 100 or so points. Everything (big) on the XJO up over 1% except RIO which is down a touch, perhaps due to ASIC (our regulator) threatening further action.
DAX -7 FTSE +3 at 3:55pm, so there's not much interest in anything on their open.
Binaries are alive here though, and the 6015 ladder is too cheap at 49 buy. The XJO is 6015.80. The range binary already bought - now too expensive. Lets see...
4 weeks ago
Thank you IG is what everyone should be saying (if you traded that ladder binary). For some reason just after posting, the price dropped (the market came off 1pt) way way too far. I was buying at 41, then 36, then even 26. Really too cheap considering the XJO was at 6014.60 (only had to rally 0.4). As with binaries it could have been a weak close and that binary go to zero, but I expected a stronger close - and stronger than it did. Just snuck home by the way, so it wasn't an easy trade so to speak. Just well rewarded. XJO closed 6015.20 up 32.50. Volume was above average for the banks, and a touch below average for BHP and RIO.
Seeing as it was an expected non-event, I forgot about the RBA. It met as per usual and kept our rates on hold at 1.50%. Been like that for a record length of time. Will probably read some transcript to see if they are going to change their mind. But for now, carry on as is it seems.
Curious what tonight brings. The SPI is holding its afternoon range, and unless the Dow plays catch-up we are a touch out of step with everyone else...
4 weeks ago - last edited 4 weeks ago
Deja-counter-rally day on the ASX with another positive day, bucking the overnight lead again, and the flat context in Asia. Quite interesting to ponder - nothing's really changed, so a few big players, locally or international, have business to do and aren't ashamed to do it.
I expected a weaker start then a decent bounce into 1pm. We got a ranging start and then a slow melt-up into 1pm. Ranged a bit then made new highs after 12pm. Those highs held for three touches - and possibly a fourth soon (now 3:33pm) YET interesting - a bit of off-loading going on up here.
The Dow has been negative most of the session, about -30, China just staying positive, the Nikkei keeping a small loss. Compared to the XJO being up 0.6%. The gains are mixed, with BHP the only real notable negative, and only 0.2% weaker so nothing.
Binaries were easy-ish for IG to price into 1pm. Actually now we are back at the high (no higher) and there are no well priced binaries to trade. Selling a ladder (expecting the market to fall) is too cheap and the range is easily priced as the XJO is mid-range. You'd expect a slight weakening on the close (I would I guess) yet a larger fall is possible but not worth the risk. Still 20mins to go.
Anyway, 1pm again there was no range binary - I was watching at about 12:15pm and the 30-40 was cheap, but as soon as I looked (quantum mechanics binary) the market took off and stayed higher, so the binary was priced out of value. Yet at 12:52pm there was good value for buying a 6050 ladder binary. The XJO was coming off a touch, and the binary priced a bit cheap - 42buy with the XJO at 6050.00 exact. It dropped a little more and the binary price fell to 33 - a definite buy to me. Probably went as low as 28 but anyway, at 12:57 there was a 3pt surge that pushed things nice and safe, yet that relaxed a touch into 1pm but didn't muck up the trade, 6050.30 at 1pm. Not bad really - a $670 per contract profit.
Right now the XJO is just above 6050 (6050.80). Yet the ladder binary is priced at 37-45 - which is too low, and despite me expecting some weakness on the close, the risk-reward is above 50 and so I'd leave it. The ladder binary has the rule that it expires at 100 if the price is above the strike price of the ladder level so you'd buy it if you think the market is going to rise above that level and sell it if you think it is going to fall. There are 5pt increments for the ladder, or 10 as you go further out of the money. So if you think it is going to rise or fall by more than 5pts, you can buy or sell these ladders. They are priced cheaper (buy out of the money) or closer to 100 (in the money) which reflects IG's expectations. Risk and reward. For example, the hourly 6047 ladder binary is priced at about 69-79. So the market would have to fall over 3pts for this to expire at zero (if you sell you want it to go to zero - ie. you don't want the condition of the binary to be fulfilled, and the condition is that the price is above the ladder strike on expiry). Likewise, it is in the money by over 3pts, so it is more certain to expire at 100 and so you are only going to make 20pts if it does expire at 100 (ie. above the strike of 6047).
Unlike directional trading where you seek to expect a certain size move, for this type of trading with binaries (close to expiry and close to at-the-money) you are only making one decision: will the price of the XJO be above or below the strike - which right now is 6050. The SPI is at 6034-45 and the XJO 6051.10 - both just went up, the SPI by 1pt and the XJO by about 0.6. So in the next 9mins, will the SPI and XJO rise or fall say two points and then stay there or improve in the lock-out 10mins.
You can see range binaries are a bit easier in these flat markets. The level of 6050 for the XJO is the equivalent of being up 35 for the day. This is right in the middle of the "up 30-40" range binary so priced easily. As equally likely to rise or fall 5pts, so those either side will be priced according to these expectations, and seeing as the range for the whole afternoon is about 10pts, for it to move 5 in 10mins is unlikely. Therefore IG can price these binaries close to 100 - 100 meaning it stays in the range, and if you believed that you would buy them. Often not worth selling them, as the spread washes out the benefit. If you think it is going to move outside the range, you BUY the range above or below the current range. As of now the up 40-50 range is 16-31, the in-the-money range 30-40 is 64-79 and the lower range 20-30 at 0-14. The XJO has popped higher at 6053.20 +38.00.
Then there are the hourly ladders, and the 20min ladders, which are exactly the same as the daily but can have different levels for the ladder, and so provide better value. There is a 6052 for example, which is now probably a good trade, but depends on the price...49-60 for in-the-money 6053.60. A touch cheap (55 sell would be better) or a touch risky to put it another way.
The SPI just made a new high, the XJO probably too, meaning that it is a tricky close. I would be happy with the 1pm trade - really good value - and wait.
4 weeks ago
The big difference in the indices is that dax and nikkei have been banging against their respective weekly chart resistance levels (light red on all charts) for some time now while waiting for dow to make a more positive move. AUS200 has been using the time to catch up.
4 weeks ago
Good trading lessons this afternoon - watching now, the SPI is making a new high after a serious dump into 4:10pm XJO close, rallying 12 since then to a new high. YET it was clear (90% certainty) the XJO had made it's high early in the afternoon and kept that high 3mins before its close. The SPI waited till it was closed, then resumed the rally to whatever its doing up here.
The close panned out as expected, weaker, but the drop was intense. About 8pts, yet the XJO only 3, 6050.20 up 35.00. So the higher 6052 ladder was the right trade and waiting and watching that to come into play was the good tactic. The risk-reward a touch too high.
Volumes on the cash market a touch under average (banks about average) but the SPI quite strong. Serious stuff going on up here. And we keep moving higher, with decent buying pressure. Nothing really correlated with it (Dow or EU/UK or Asia basically unch).
The thing is - common sense would tell you to sell the SPI (uncorrelated strength) - you'd be margin called by now for that trade.
4 weeks ago
Cracks appearing in the break-away surge as selling kicked in all day. Prices still rose - interesting.
Anyway, a small rally on the open, despite the lead (again) fell back, then bounced back to highs and new highs into 1pm. Would have been some good binaries. The move was sort of symmetrical - up 27, down 23, up 27, then ranged, until about 20mins into 1pm. That would have taken the XJO from the 40-50 range over into the above 50 range, and the binary would have been probably just near a 50buy.
For this rise, the Dow was flat, the Nikkei down 120 and China down a similar % (to the Nikkei) -17. The $AUD was strong (some positive data might have helped) up 230.
Yet across this rise and then over lunch and into the afternoon the selling continued. The high was set (algo's tipped their hat) and the price fell as the selling continued, but this settled into a range, a decent range of about 20pts. It is just relaxing back now near the lower half of the range (3:48pm). Not enough to bring any binaries into play. The 6095 ladder is out of the money and a buy at 29, which seems fair-cheap. The selling is by big players, and has intensified on this down leg of the range.
You'd expect it to continue into the close, but...
The Dow and China turned positive this afternoon, up a few tenths of a percent, but the Nikkei has stayed weak, -130. The Aussie ($AUD) is holding its gains. The DAX and FTSE are priced down about 30 by IG at 3:51pm. That is more in line with the US.
Another 0.7% gain by the ASX - third day in a row (at least) and the Dow has fallen about 400pts over those three days. You can see why logical ideas and rules for trading never work.
I was expecting a more positive end to the range for the day, so it better show some form now or else...
4 weeks ago
Hi @Caseynotes Thanks again for providing that nice visual weekly context. I should look at it more often. The question is (and the associated general discussion that could possibly melt-down the forum) : did anyone sell at the resistance, or buy expecting the surge through and beyond. Or sell, get stopped out, and then have the trading psyches to buy (which is impressive).
That is THE "thing" with TA.
4 weeks ago
Don't know what I would have done if my threat didn't come about... Yet was saved by the unbelievable weirdness going on. The rally kick-in as suggested right after my posting, helped by China (and the Dow) surging. Then the SPI ranged in the 10min lockout, higher than the 4pm level. But with about 1min to go the selling just capitulated the SPI and it dropped about 7pts, meaning that 6095 ladder was dead (the XJO at 4pm was 6095.80.
Yet the last 30sec say saw buying reverse that fall and take the SPI higher, and the XJO to close at 6098.30. Good value for the 6095 ladder at 29 buy (was 22 even).
Things have settled a bit now, yet China has kept its strong close.
Vols. on the XJO about average, the miners a touch less than average volume, but good gains, BHP 1% RIO 1.7%.
$AUD kicking along a bit too, now 333pips.
Interesting to consider - today a good old-school algo controlled day. Things may not make sense from whatever analysis perspective you use, but it is still well controlled.
(Why have I got 55 notices on the forum... better check that out).
4 weeks ago
Hi @Zero you're welcome. Another interesting thing I noticed on the AUS200 chart was the high proportion of opening blue 4 hour bars in this recent up trend (that's the bar starting 0:00 (BST) and marked with a red arrow) and that they didn't usually get much in the way of follow through, either price reversed a bit or just went sideways for the afternoon session.
Note too that price has now reached the weekly resistance level and has the monthly just above it (light red and dark red lines).
The dax 1 min on yesterday's open looked like this, there was an early (euro open) faint then the London open high vol push and then pullback which ended with a high vol pin bar followed by a strong continuation bar. That was the opening but then I thought those large bars about 8:30 looked exhaustive so ducked out. Was then looking for a V reversal that didn't come and instead watched the channel (I hate channels, when are you supposed to get in?)
4 weeks ago - last edited 4 weeks ago
Well spotted @Caseynotes That's why I invested the time to get familiar with binaries. If you miss that open (which is often mostly the night session so you'd have to get in then) then the day is over unless you can trade those beloved channels. Binaries are perfect for this type of action in my opinion.
A possible reason to back-explain these moves: The market is front-running the expected "Big Bank" results. (In Australia, there are 4 large banks with profits over 1billion dollars each and who pay a div. of about a 6% yield. CBA, NAB, WBC and ANZ). NAB today - undercooked ie lower than last year, not sure about expectations but it fell today. That should mean two other of our big banks should report soon. They are the only thing that can move our market so strongly and independently of the rest of the world so to speak.
Anyway, thanks again for your posts.
3 weeks ago
A 400pt fall on the Dow recovered, with a 50pt rally in the dying minutes of the session. The SPI had a large range, with a new high into its session close.
Expect a relax on open to recover and range 1pm. Lower range over the afternoon, higher range into end of day.
3 weeks ago
The ASX was slapped back to reality today - after a quiet open, the algo's did two things before letting the bottom fall out of the SPI (hinting it was one-way traffic from then). At about 11:50am. Strong selling pushed the SPI down about 30pts to erase most (if not all) of yesterday's gain. Selling by the big players, which continued over lunch - though it steadied then to be more of a range. I expected a relax - it was more pure selling. But my expected sentiments were correct.
The Dow and China were both negative too, yet they recovered leaving the ASX to its own devices (again).
Selling continued after 1pm, yet it was basically a continuation of the range, with the market comfortable here at this level (6046 SPI XJO 6066. Yet the Dow and China have both rallied, and the DAX is up 75, the FTSE up 34 suggesting a positive start for those markets.
Binaries are not priced to my liking as IG are too expensive. If you wanted to sell you'd get good value, yet I was anticipating a positive close. The down 20-30 range for 36 might be interesting, yet the price would have changed by now.
Volume strong on the SPI, and overnight, yet on the cash (XJO) it is below average. Banks are the biggest losers today, down about 1.0% each. BHP flat-positive, RIO down a little, a bit of a defensive rotation it seems. Lower volume so not a big deal.
A day where the Dow is up and we sell off - the opposite to the week yet keeping the anti-correlation theme going. Bizzarro market.
3 weeks ago - last edited 3 weeks ago
The XJO close was more of the same - selling into the range. Good value on the binary sell - the XJO was 6065 on the dot at 4pm, and IG were selling at 55. When I looked earlier, there was a bit more juice in the price as it was a 68 sell, XJO only 6066ish.
I would have missed out on a trade - conflicted signals (even though the obvious was .... obvious in hindsight) and prices. The waiting side of trading - who just posted that (EA Trader) - Bill Lipschutz. And as Caseynotes mentioned yesterday, you'll get a decent move then have to deal with the channel (daily). So lots going on today to give the trading skills a workout.
As well, the SPI-XJO internal correlation narrowed during the day, widened into the close. Nothing mysterious - most futures contracts will be pricing the underlying cash market in anticipation, so there is always a premium or discount between the two.
The range is holding as of now, yet on the EU open the Dow was hit down, from +24 near 4pm to -20 now.
3 weeks ago - last edited 3 weeks ago
Monday started strongly on the back of Sat. morning's gains, yet it was basically selling into this strength till 12pm. China woke up and it dragged us higher into 1pm (+4 to +33 to +66 after 1pm) along with the Dow futures, which were about +25 to +50 to +80ish similarly. I took a longer range binary into 1pm - at 12:38 the 6095 ladder was cheap between 37-40 buy as the XJO relaxed a touch (6094.40). Expired at 100 XJO 6099.40.
Then the selling kicked in, taking the SPI to its lows (the XJO still +20ish), and more strongly after 2pm to new lows by 4 where it ranged. Just in the last 10mins making new lows from this range by 3 pts - so sort of a fumbling range lower. I expected a stronger close inside the range, so might have to update that expectation or sit out. The selling is decent, and volume good. Potentially the 6080 ladder for 49 buy.
The XJO started with the majors all higher (except NAB) - one of our big banks (Westpac, WBC) announced a $4.2billion half-year profit, up 7% but in line with expectations. That must have shown up the NAB who reported last week, so it was up while the NAB a touch lower. Now they are up or down 20-80cents, RIO just positive, yet BHP up 1.5% - the best of the majors.
Apart from WBC and NAB, volumes lower than average on the cash market.
That rally kicked in as expected, yet the selling strength may still influence the last 10mins. We'll see. The Nikkei has finally woken up after a flat day, that might give things a boost.
Edit: Sat morning not night as originally.
3 weeks ago
Like a wrestling move - ramp the SPI up 10pts into and after 4pm, then slam it down 10pts into the 4:10pm close. Decent buying and selling too. All of that kept the XJO a touch higher (v the 4pm level) into the close, 6084.50 (in the 20-30 range). That 6080 was a good buy, and the positive expectation was ok. Yet hard to trade in real-time.
As of now 4:22pm the market is relaxing back to the low as other markets come off a touch.
3 weeks ago - last edited 3 weeks ago
Bit of a dud day really - early gains from the overnight rally didn't inspire the market, with a small sell off on the open rallying back to a range. That was just a set up for selling at those higher prices. Interesting the high was the overnight high.... Held strong. Selling into that in a 10pt range, with a small surge into 1pm. Bit of a risky move but I took the 6109 binary (hourly) for 37 pts and 42pts (buying) at 12:39pm. There was a bit of ground to make up - XJO at 6107.40 - and the SPI was just meandering up till then. But thankfully there was a small surge to take the XJO to 6109.40 and the binaries to 100.Try making that from a directional trade on a morning like today.... Other binaries were easily priced by IG and so not worth the risk.
Maybe this afternoon it (a directional trade) would have been ok, if you got in on 2pm for 15pts - as after 1pm the weakness tried to rally but it wasn't convincing and the market just faded all afternoon. Made new low with continual selling. The Dow has kept its +20ish level, the Nikkei up 90 early but that has faded too, yet China opened strong, and has gotten stronger up around 50 (1.3%). Its trade balance (USD denominated) was close to the expected value, and strong. The $AUD has come off 200pips too.
Oddly the FTSE futures (well IG's market) is down 45 (1.6%) and the DAX down 24 only 0.2%.
On the cash index, the big three banks are up about 1% but NAB is still in the naughty corner, down 5 cents. BHP is down 0.5% and Woodside (Petroleum) down a lot, 1.8%, considering Crude Oil hit the $70.00 mark last night. RIO positive up 0.4% (non-oil miner).
Volumes a touch low on the cash index however still strong on the SPI. Seems to be becoming the norm these days. I might have to tweak any expected "average volume" amounts.
Local news today is our Federal Budget being released tonight. Already there are slow pre-releases so some of the news is being baked into the relevant share prices. It is a pre-election budget (election still a way off) so everyone gets something sort of budget. More money in the bank too for Aus which is good... yet it is not really in the bank, but being spent on votes.
Fed Chair tonight is always something to keep an eye on.
Selling persisting now, and binaries are probably priced to be out of my risk range. XJO +5 meaning easy to price. A possible ladder to sell if that's the plan (was the plan earlier...) yet on investigation that they aren't priced well enough to justify the trade. No need to try and make things happen (especially with 1pm working out ok).
Edit: for clarity.
3 weeks ago
Flat close at 16:10 but there was some underlying buying, enough to kick the XJO up. Not what I expected, yet I was staying out so would only have missed some decent buys (6089 and 6090 ladder at 40 and 45 buy).
SPI has since rallied 7pts since the cash close at 4:10pm. Not bad considering it kept a 5pt range at the lows for over an hour. Short covering by some big players. No external correlated moves, so local buying since 4pm.
Vols on the banks were good today, rest probably average.
Buying before tonight ... hmm.
3 weeks ago
I seem to have missed the last 30mins in my expected price moves for the day. Up till then it was ok. So I will wing it - yet the morning was more selling. The open relaxed, had a re-think of that, revisiting a high that seems to be important - the 6093 level. Had a few bites at it, and like I mentioned yesterday that was the high from Monday night, and the close of Friday (the high that night being 6098). So it is a level where stuff is getting done.
This morning it was selling, as the market then faded down to a tight range into 1pm. A small 20pt fall, not much happening today.
Binaries priced a bit skewed by IG into 1pm, but they picked the right side to bias their prices (pretending they do that) so that it was too exp. for me to buy. The XJO was on 0 basically, about 0.5 either side. So you'd expect the up/down binary to be 50:50. Yet IG were 64 buy for the upside. 1pm the XJO was up 0.4 but 1min earlier just positive. So a fine line between profit and loss. The art of binary trading. The better trade was the short an hour earlier at the high. I was thinking of that, got distracted and then got left behind. About 11:30am the market was hit - the Dow to -36 (v -14 earlier) the Nikkei to -100 v -40, and China -11 v -2.5 earlier. So that started the slow fall into 1pm.
The currencies were more active than usual, the USDJPY the standout up 450 pips, the $AUD coming off 200 (at about 11am).
These have stayed much the same all day, and the Chinese index has weakened, -26, yet the Dow recovered to about +2, and we followed. After 1pm a small rally,which faded, so setting up the range, but that was broken at 3:30pm with that unexpected rise back to the high. The buying significant too, but not urgent. Not sure how I will play out the close, but first thoughts is to expect the levels to hold. The 6110 ladder is good value to sell at 46 with the XJO 6107 3:45pm. That is good value, yet a touch under my risk level. If I had had a good morning or week so far, it might be worth the risk, BUT - like yesterday, the XJO should be higher than it is or the SPI will have to fall back a touch and the XJO stay unch. If the XJO adjusts and not the SPI, all binaries will be torpedoed.
As Caseynotes pointed out (thanks again) - the Donald was going to announce his Iran intentions, which created some volatility. The headlines were that he was, he wasn't, he told Macron, he didn't..... We know of course he did what everyone expected, so that didn't seem to cause much trouble today.
The local Federal Budget was generally positive, but what trumped that (problem using that term when it doesn't apply to him) by some political news - ongoing saga that members of Parliament have dual citizenship, which is against the law. The High Court (the highest) ruled that a particular member of the opposition is ineligible to sit so her seat is up for changes, along with 3 of her colleagues (and their leader promised months ago in a signed statement they were all legit ...!) Anyway, that has created political uncertainty, as other members of Parliament might be suspect, or it might be best to call an early election to sort it all out etc.
Yet this afternoons mini rally doesn't fit this fundamental news - so it seems the markets aren't concerned about much. It will be used in the near future to explain any surprise move I guess.
On the XJO BHP and Woodside are up over 1%, RIO just positive, banks likewise just positive, yet the CBA (our biggest) down 2.9%. Unusual - they have agreed to settle over their manipulation of the Bank Bill Swap Rate, maybe the reason. Volumes close to average.
A revisit to the high at the end of the day, slight selling kicking in. Might keep my powder dry. The 6110 ladder a sell at 62 or more, which is where I would err, the range binaries priced at 55 each for a buy so too high for me. XJO at 6111.10 +19.20.
3 weeks ago
Sold off on the close, then rallied back to high. That held - 6093 - solid. Can't tell me that is conventional buying and selling.
Binary was good, the XJO closing at 6108. That 6110 ladder sold at 63 was a good trade.
Two days in a row some buying after 4:10pm, which goes nowhere. Hmm.
3 weeks ago - last edited 3 weeks ago
I'd give $100 for anyone who could guess the low of today (on the SPI) yet it is a bit too easy to find out the answer... Well, the day is still young in binary terms, 3:24pm, but I'll call it. Make my own binaries...
After last night's rally on the back of irrational buying because of the Iran Deal withdrawal, the SPI opened even stronger than where it closed for the night session (at 7am). The 6093 level, respected all day, was leaped over at 5pm (yesterday afternoon, just after it had held all day) and was treated like any other price as the SPI moved higher. Interesting - yet this morning there was a bit of a pause around the opening levels, a 7point rally to the high for the day, then down down down 28pts to a lunch range. A local move as the Dow moved higher to +52, and China +13 at 11:30am.
Nothing much was happening till about 12:53. I could see a bit of selling pressure building up, but the binaries didn't seem to think it was going to amount to much. Set up a good opportunity - buy the "up 0-10" range binary for 41, the XJO up 10.50 (so a good price to buy, a touch cheap which is good). The selling kicked in so that became in the money, but the ladder binaries were still a bit slow to adjust to the move. So I thought the 6117 ladder was worth a sell, at 68 (the spread 68-83, the XJO 6117.60 at 12:56). Hopefully that is sort of obvious that it is a really good risk-reward - 4mins, XJO only has to fall 0.6, and the risk 32 to make 68.
The selling pressure was there, but it seemed like there was no chance it was falling below 6116, the SPI 6095. Oscillated here for the 4mins, amazing to watch - as if someone else was trading that ladder binary (6117). Seems too controlled.
Anyway, come 1pm, the XJO went from 6117.20 to 6116.80, +8.80, both binaries to 100. Hmm.
Then the SPI ticked down a touch to make the algo's happy, and then popped higher about 10 to set up a tight range for the rest of the day including now 3:45pm. Still selling here.
The rest of Asia has kept its strength, the Nikkei up 80, China up 8 (though it did fall to +1) and the Dow up 45. The DAX and FTSE seem to be starting strongly, though it seems there is a holiday??? BoE tonight too, but if they are like my RBA it might be a non-event.
Miners are strong on the XJO, up over 1.5% each (BHP RIO). The star of the day (for my "watchlist" ie mostly the majors) is Woodside Petroleum, up over 5% on the back of crude oil (why I watch it). I guess there is a bit more risk-factor baked into that than purely the price of oil moving higher overnight. Banks mixed half-percent moves, Telstra (our biggest listed "telco") down 2%. Volumes decent, average on average... (ie. banks average, TLS above average, miners a touch below average - so far).
The small surge now has set up a selling opportunity (binaries, sell the ladder) but there isn't anything of value now 3:43pm, so I might wait. No pressure.
The low by the way is 6094....
3 weeks ago
Not on purpose, but often right when I post any suggestions for the close, the market moves and the tip becomes redundant. Same thing today - the market sold down about 5 pts right as I posted so my suggestion to sell a ladder binary was a bit late. Yet there was still life in the move, the next level ladder still a sell. Well priced too, the 6120 ladder a sell at 57, XJO 6120.40 at 3:58pm.
That was looking borderline, until the last minute when there was a bit of a dump, pushing the SPI down to the magic number 6094. That held - remarkable - the selling pressure was held off perfectly to keep that level. There was a 4pt bounce, then back down - held again, and now 4:22pm another 4pt bounce.
I only tell this as it is instructional - and pretty amazing.
The XJO closed at 6118.70 so the binary was good.
Right as I was going to post, the algo's made sure their perfection was obeyed, with a new low of 6092 yet that was in line with algo-logic. This will hold till 4:30pm.
The Dow and UK/EU has come off a touch since 4pm.
3 weeks ago
Yes Ger and French BH, dax went for a stroll up to tag the 13000 before returning to resistance turned support at 12960, just to prove it could do it. Would expect it to have another go during the day if the London session can produce enough volatility.
2 weeks ago
The Friday algo kicked into gear today, as the SPI and XJO meandered in a small-ish range. It just doesn't want to move above these levels, despite some positive leads and context.
A flat to positive start only invited more selling, fading the XJO's early gains (up 20ish)down about 15. That steadied, then ranged higher into 1pm as expected. There were no binaries on offer when I was watching, as the XJO was at a mid-range level, easy for IG to price so to speak. No surprises there. The Dow and the Nikkei led our surge into 12pm, the Dow moving from +20 to +44, the Nikkei +155 to plus 230. They've stayed there all day, whereas China was not interested, starting flat and then falling 9 - nothing major. Quiet on the FX front.
In the afternoon, the ASX faded those gains back down near the low, setting up a range around the low (12pt range so far). There's been constant selling, picking up a touch into the close now. I expected a close off the bottom of the range, so in 5mins that will have to appear or else my predictions are wrong. Binaries 6120 ladder was cheap at a 37 buy a minute ago, yet now, with the XJO lower and the SPI the same, they are priced higher at 49.... ! To explain - they should be cheaper again as the XJO has fallen and they are out of the money, but now they are probably fairly priced. I don't see the shorter time frame having that much of an impact on the price, but maybe IG's pricing algo's are factoring that in.
Anyway, there is still a bit of selling, so that binary may not be worth the effort. Friday close is not the best time to trade, as it can make or break a weekend.
On the XJO, a similar theme to yesterday, with our big miners BHP and RIO up 1.2%, Woodside down despite crude being higher, down 1.1% too, so not insignificant. The big banks are off about 0.5% - 1.0%. Volumes trust-worthy too, the miners a touch less than average.
Binaries are not being priced correctly, the up down binary having the up at 55 buy, the down at 45 buy, yet the XJO is down 0.5. Technically it should be the other way around (it seems to be a bit better now, last minute of trading) Can't see any trades I like, and with the constant selling it is tricky. There are two signs that the algo's should back off...
2 weeks ago
The algo's did pop 8pts on 4pm as expected, but from then on it was another sell-into-strength. Yet the selling pushed the market to new lows, including the XJO on close. I was staying out, but my expectations from the get go were off for this last ten mins. Annoying considering the rest of the day.
The XJO closed 6116.20, down 2.50, setting the day's low. Tough trading for binaries with the prices offered. Unless you got in over the afternoon.
The nice thing of the day was that the algos were still perfect, and our magic number ruled the day, 6093 the goal for the selling. Hmm.
Dow fell on the 4pm open/close (whichever market you're watching), with China falling more, the Nikkei dragged down after its close, and the European markets coming off a touch.
Not sure what you're implying - "lost support" ???
Today either the 6083.10 20min ladder binary which was 44 or less at 3:55pm "bought", and the 6083.00 hourly ladder binary at 43 to 36 buy at 3:55pm, or less in the 2 mins till lockout. XJO 6084.50, binaries to 100.
At the moment I am limited in how I can post on the forum. That's about all I can say. Last week I was visiting family.
It is probably known but IG have changed how they determine their strike price for the ASX (XJO). Who knows why.
They now take the price of the XJO just before the expiry time, not on/at the expiry time. It shouldn't be an issue as they disclose when this is and a trader has to accept that that's how the binary is set up. Philosophically it might be more or less accurate. In reality it makes absolutely no difference as a trader couldn't trade within that 1 minute regardless.....
One thing that isn't openly disclosed is that they now shut their binary market 1 minute earlier than before.
That question is something that assumes a certain trading approach that I believe is incorrect. If in the past 6084 was an important value/price, it is not necessarily true that it will remain important, as the context then and the next time it is at that price has normally changed (assuming a time frame of a week or more say). Technical analysis, in other words, is so one dimensional.
The XJO went below 6084 today but it wasn't a significant number. I haven't looked at the charts to see if it is either. To me I would take every day as it comes, and decide on the day whether a certain price or combination of prices is a good trade. That would mean I would trade a larger position and look for a smaller range than your strategy. Just my personal preference.
At the moment, and considering what is happening this week, it is more likely you'd get stopped out of that trade before it returns to come close to the target. I also don't trade with stops, and would rarely trade overnight. So again, it is hard for me to be confident about this trade with the trading style / money management I would use.
Short answer, there would be a better trade in my opinion (assuming a CFD directional trade, not a binary. Binaries would obviously be a totally different consideration, and a blunt no. You would understand this I know.).
As of now, 10:48am Tuesday morning, the IG ASX200 low is 6044.4 and the XJO low 6046.10. Either way, that trade would be stopped out. The market is still weak, trying to find some buying.
Not knowing the rational behind the earlier trade (buy 6084, stop 6050, target 6135) I can't offer much more commentary on it.
I'd expect a range to develop off these lows. No clear sign of a bottom/low yet. China is strong (+0.5%) the Nikkei weak (-35) and that's off a positive lead overnight.