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Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

Everything looks clear after the event, trading requires a different brain  to trade in foresight, it is all very easy after the event.All analysis is done with our rational brain, real trading is different.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

What are you referencing this remark to? It doesn't actually make any sense.

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

elle  

 

said it was all clear , as always everything is so clear in hindsight.It is never  clear   before the trade, only after the event  trade it looks easy trade.

 

I was just pointing out it is always difficult before the trade.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

elle said it was clear because price just crashed through support, you weren't expecting it, no one was, so what is this utter tripe about foresight and hindsight. It was just a heads up, a statement of fact for anyone who was not watching at the time, that is helpful if you were watching something else.

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

Which support?

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

The support and resistance levels on the higher time frames that everyone (else) uses rather than the transient lower lows or higher highs that you use on your 'system' indicator.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

I expected it to be broken,that is why I bought a put.Euro strength is bad for the Dax, so dax was going to breakdown.I was trying to short it and it chopped me out above 1.3540.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

The dax was a dead bore all day until it broke down thought the upper white zone which was, at the time, the 4 hour support level. The massive bar used to crash through what is resistance on the weekly chart meant business. (see 5 min chart) You can take those as they go through because the risk is minimal (stop just above the red line). 

 

GER30(£)M5.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: dax

[ Edited ]

dax is putting in an interesting 1 hour bar bounce up off the trendline but has some heavy resistance to work though if it's to make any progress.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

How a pro looks at charts

 

DR CASEY.jpg

Regular Contributor
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎04-06-2016

updateCapture ddx.PNG

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Yes, the resistance held and the trendline broke. Taking it's lead off the Dow.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngUS30(£)H1.png

 

 

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

Casey 

 

You are looking at the wrong trend linescasey.jpg

 

 

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

Get pro real time   

 

It will also help by drawing automatically

 

casey pro real time.jpg

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

No I'm not actually, a three touch is a good indication the line is being used and is not random. Your channel lines on the other hand are routinely violated invalidating them, any subsequent touch is random. 

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

The amateurs don't understand fractals and noise.

Regular Contributor
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎04-06-2016

update   Capture dax.PNG

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Both the dax and the dow took a 3 AM plunge for some reason, no news.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngUS30(£)H1.png

Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

Apple shares dropped.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Keeps on dropping but closing in on multiple support. (trendline, 200day EMA, weekly support level, and a broadeniing formation bottom).

 

GER30(£)Daily.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Dax returning to yesterday's range before breakout, 12521 key resistance for this move back up.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Interesting tweet re bunds, euro stoxx and dax. The IB (resistance level at 3390 in euro stoxx chart) looked to break upward at around 9:30 this morning.

 

ib1.PNG

 

 

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Dax and Dow turning down in unison at the 50% retracement (and 100ema) of the big move down. Dax now reacting to the 38.2 Fib level.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngUS30(£)H1.png 

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Remains trapped between the 38.2 and 50% Fib levels, heading up but about to run into the 100 ema on the hourly chart. Still a range play until either fib level breaks.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)Daily.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Dax is trying to breakout down past the 23.6 Fib level (12140).

 

GER30(£)M5.png

Highlighted
Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Failed yesterday to break up through the 100 ema and 38.2 Fib level, now checking support. Looking for a break of 12218 to the down side or 12379 to the up side.

 

 

GER30(£)H1.png

 

 

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Dax on US CPI data takes 10 minutes to drop 200 tick, bounces off trendline, then climbs back up 200 over the next 90 minutes to challenge the high from this morning.

 

GER30(£)M5.pngGER30(£)H1.png

Regular Contributor
Posts: 179
Registered: ‎28-11-2017

that is quite a violent swing. markets are really choppy right now, however it looks as though faith is being restored (slowly) and money is coming back into markets. I was actually trying to trade the dax (dummy account) and was caught by this move, so thankful I have a demo account to experiment with.

 

Its not been a great week for me with one stock crashing, I am currently penning some notes about that.


For me the indices are a bit too volatile to be trading but there is clearly opportunities with such 200pt swings.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

 Hi @rimmy2000,  CPI would not usually cause such a stir but the chatter for over a week was that this time it could be different given the drop in indices (long overdue a correction)  following the last NFP data which showed increasing wages (inflationary) so if the inflationary aspect was confirmed today everyone was expecting a further indices drop with a correlated US dollar gain (except USDJPY because Yen was where much of the money from Dow was going).

 

The reality was the expected drop followed by instant recovery suggesting the initial correction a week ago was enough which bodes well for indices in the near future.

 

Dax tends to be more lively than most but on this occasion kept pace with the Dow which also had a 200 tick drop and recovery while currencies remained more subdued with lower volatility as has been the case for over a year now, EURUSD dropped just 100 pip before recovery. May well see 'buy the dip' traders returning to Dow now the correction looks done which will also cause USDJPY to move sideways rather than continue it's downward path.

 

The long run up in indices this last year has been at the expense of currencies and that looks like continuing post correction so worth keeping an eye on them. Take a look at the monthly Dax chart and see those long run ups interdispersed with sharp corrections and that same pattern is played out on the lesser time frames as well so like all else it's a question of timing and keeping an eye on the chart and an ear to the ground. 

 

On all charts even the lesser time frames dax is a good respecter of moving averages so experiment with the chart you prefer and see if one is being exploited (see the 1 hour chart below with 100 ema in yellow and 200 in purple). 

 

GER30(£)Monthly.pngGER30(£)H1.png

 

 

 

 

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Dow breaks up out of triangle pattern closely followed by dax.

 

US30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)H1.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

London open turn around counters European open attempt to push higher leading to a big push down through daily support and equalling the daily range of the last 2 days in just 2 hours.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)Daily.png

Regular Contributor
Posts: 206
Registered: ‎22-02-2018

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Apprehension going into fed Powell’s testimony? Global markets seem focused on those rate rises.
Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Seems to be a continuation of the indices slide started Tuesday (Powell's first testimonial) and had follow through on the Asian overnight session as reported in the morning call. The Euro open tried to reverse the slide but then Dax tracked an identical move down in the Dow, both around 160 ticks not long after the London open this morning. That makes around 1000 tick total down for Dow since Tues.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Dax is looking to break out up past resistance this morning having climbed above the 100 and 200 MA. A break out could lead to a considerable move higher.  Dow is also tight against resistance.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Regular Contributor
Posts: 210
Registered: ‎04-06-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Capture dax.PNG

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Hopefully the ECB rate decision and presser will give it a kick one way or the other. The problem being that it's likely to be the presser that has most influence and lasts about 45 minutes during which there can be a lot of whipsawing until a final direction is decided.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Dax setting up another bull flag while awaiting NFP today.

 

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Worth noting that today dax progressing very similar to yesterday. Holding a bull flag til late morning then dropping away to test support. Yesterday 3 hourly bars tested 12176, checking RSI (bar close) for divergence shows none on the hourly chart but get closer on a 15 min chart and divergence shows up very clearly.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)M15.png

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 64
Registered: ‎08-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Strange behaviour, i was sure that dax should join the usa uptrend friday evening but after initially rally (NFP) then dax dropped and was like a dead fish rest of the evening (did pop a couple of points but normally it should have reach day high and beyond)

 

and its was not caused by the euro

 

maybe some hedgefunds are shorting fdax?

 

 

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Yes, I was waiting as well and was watching Dow also, was surprised dax didn't continue to the upside but after 2 pm dax just faded away. As did US 10 year treasury (immediately after me posting 'heading for 3%') so inevitability did usdjpy. Ho Hum. I wasn't watching futures, as you suggest worth doing a post mortum on.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Never seen that before, dax spread failed to drop from 5 points to 2 at 7:00 am, FTSE has dropped from 4 to 2 as per normal. What will happen at 8:00 when dax should go from 2 to 1?

 

The usual 7 am leap on EU market open is non existent. 

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

IG client help has the answer ...

 

hour.PNG

Community Manager
Posts: 1,154
Registered: ‎20-09-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

[ Edited ]

thanks @Caseynotes - There were issues at Eurex: http://www.eurexchange.com/exchange-en/trading/production-newsboard (although due to significant traffic as you would expect, you may get timed out )

 

We were pricing DAX, STXE, SMI out of hours until the exchange comes back online, which it now seems to have done. Spread back to normal. 

 

Follow @IGClientHelp on twitter for faster updates Smiley Happy

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Exchange open and back to normal now.

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Dax is trying to break up past today's high.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Having failed at the top of the range Dax went on to retest the bottom for a third time. The Dow daily also put in a strong daily bull bar off support for a potential double bottom. So today looking for dax to break up through 12000.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)Daily.pngUS30(£)Daily.png 

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Reminder: IG webinar on trading the Dax today at 12:30, register at https://www.ig.com/uk/learn-to-trade/ig-academy/sessions

 

dax1.PNG

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Dax thinking about striking out past resistance and making a dash for 12610. Has the 100 and 200 ma underneath for the first time since January. 

 

 

GER30(£)H4.png

Esteemed Contributor
Posts: 2,277
Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Weekend gap filled on dax, now looking to retest 12394 or 12557, the latter looking more likely half way through the current 1 hour bar.

 

 

GER30(£)H1.png

Valued Contributor
Posts: 532
Registered: ‎06-08-2015

Re: DAX (Germany 30)

Looks like the same algo as the SPI - too precise to ignore...