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Respected Contributor
Posts: 1,141
Registered: ‎21-03-2016

Everything looks clear after the event, trading requires a different brain  to trade in foresight, it is all very easy after the event.All analysis is done with our rational brain, real trading is different.

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Registered: ‎10-03-2016

What are you referencing this remark to? It doesn't actually make any sense.

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Respected Contributor
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Registered: ‎21-03-2016

elle  

 

said it was all clear , as always everything is so clear in hindsight.It is never  clear   before the trade, only after the event  trade it looks easy trade.

 

I was just pointing out it is always difficult before the trade.

Respected Contributor
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elle said it was clear because price just crashed through support, you weren't expecting it, no one was, so what is this utter tripe about foresight and hindsight. It was just a heads up, a statement of fact for anyone who was not watching at the time, that is helpful if you were watching something else.

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Respected Contributor
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Which support?

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The support and resistance levels on the higher time frames that everyone (else) uses rather than the transient lower lows or higher highs that you use on your 'system' indicator.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

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I expected it to be broken,that is why I bought a put.Euro strength is bad for the Dax, so dax was going to breakdown.I was trying to short it and it chopped me out above 1.3540.

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The dax was a dead bore all day until it broke down thought the upper white zone which was, at the time, the 4 hour support level. The massive bar used to crash through what is resistance on the weekly chart meant business. (see 5 min chart) You can take those as they go through because the risk is minimal (stop just above the red line). 

 

GER30(£)M5.png

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Re: dax

[ Edited ]

dax is putting in an interesting 1 hour bar bounce up off the trendline but has some heavy resistance to work though if it's to make any progress.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

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Respected Contributor
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How a pro looks at charts

 

DR CASEY.jpg

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Registered: ‎04-06-2016

updateCapture ddx.PNG

Respected Contributor
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Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Yes, the resistance held and the trendline broke. Taking it's lead off the Dow.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngUS30(£)H1.png

 

 

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Casey 

 

You are looking at the wrong trend linescasey.jpg

 

 

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Registered: ‎21-03-2016

Get pro real time   

 

It will also help by drawing automatically

 

casey pro real time.jpg

Respected Contributor
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Registered: ‎10-03-2016

No I'm not actually, a three touch is a good indication the line is being used and is not random. Your channel lines on the other hand are routinely violated invalidating them, any subsequent touch is random. 

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The amateurs don't understand fractals and noise.

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update   Capture dax.PNG

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Registered: ‎10-03-2016

Both the dax and the dow took a 3 AM plunge for some reason, no news.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngUS30(£)H1.png

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Apple shares dropped.

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Keeps on dropping but closing in on multiple support. (trendline, 200day EMA, weekly support level, and a broadeniing formation bottom).

 

GER30(£)Daily.png

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Dax returning to yesterday's range before breakout, 12521 key resistance for this move back up.

 

GER30(£)H1.png

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Interesting tweet re bunds, euro stoxx and dax. The IB (resistance level at 3390 in euro stoxx chart) looked to break upward at around 9:30 this morning.

 

ib1.PNG

 

 

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Dax and Dow turning down in unison at the 50% retracement (and 100ema) of the big move down. Dax now reacting to the 38.2 Fib level.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngUS30(£)H1.png 

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Remains trapped between the 38.2 and 50% Fib levels, heading up but about to run into the 100 ema on the hourly chart. Still a range play until either fib level breaks.

 

GER30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)Daily.png

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Dax is trying to breakout down past the 23.6 Fib level (12140).

 

GER30(£)M5.png

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Highlighted
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Failed yesterday to break up through the 100 ema and 38.2 Fib level, now checking support. Looking for a break of 12218 to the down side or 12379 to the up side.

 

 

GER30(£)H1.png

 

 

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Dax on US CPI data takes 10 minutes to drop 200 tick, bounces off trendline, then climbs back up 200 over the next 90 minutes to challenge the high from this morning.

 

GER30(£)M5.pngGER30(£)H1.png

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that is quite a violent swing. markets are really choppy right now, however it looks as though faith is being restored (slowly) and money is coming back into markets. I was actually trying to trade the dax (dummy account) and was caught by this move, so thankful I have a demo account to experiment with.

 

Its not been a great week for me with one stock crashing, I am currently penning some notes about that.


For me the indices are a bit too volatile to be trading but there is clearly opportunities with such 200pt swings.

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 Hi @rimmy2000,  CPI would not usually cause such a stir but the chatter for over a week was that this time it could be different given the drop in indices (long overdue a correction)  following the last NFP data which showed increasing wages (inflationary) so if the inflationary aspect was confirmed today everyone was expecting a further indices drop with a correlated US dollar gain (except USDJPY because Yen was where much of the money from Dow was going).

 

The reality was the expected drop followed by instant recovery suggesting the initial correction a week ago was enough which bodes well for indices in the near future.

 

Dax tends to be more lively than most but on this occasion kept pace with the Dow which also had a 200 tick drop and recovery while currencies remained more subdued with lower volatility as has been the case for over a year now, EURUSD dropped just 100 pip before recovery. May well see 'buy the dip' traders returning to Dow now the correction looks done which will also cause USDJPY to move sideways rather than continue it's downward path.

 

The long run up in indices this last year has been at the expense of currencies and that looks like continuing post correction so worth keeping an eye on them. Take a look at the monthly Dax chart and see those long run ups interdispersed with sharp corrections and that same pattern is played out on the lesser time frames as well so like all else it's a question of timing and keeping an eye on the chart and an ear to the ground. 

 

On all charts even the lesser time frames dax is a good respecter of moving averages so experiment with the chart you prefer and see if one is being exploited (see the 1 hour chart below with 100 ema in yellow and 200 in purple). 

 

GER30(£)Monthly.pngGER30(£)H1.png

 

 

 

 

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Dow breaks up out of triangle pattern closely followed by dax.

 

US30(£)H1.pngGER30(£)H1.png

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