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By AlphaTrade · Posted
Good morning: Alpha Trade US data weakened further, and the US dollar fell steadily against G10 currencies again, as did gold. With gold prices reaching a 13-month high, the US dollar against gold is currently in a unilateral downward trend. The weaker-than-expected JOLTS data and the decline in job vacancies to the lowest level since May 2021 have panicked the market, and dovish interest rate bets have been digested, with the market expecting the Fed to either raise interest rates or pause at its next meeting. The sharp decline in job vacancies has put pressure on stocks, and this tone remained when European markets opened. Also shocking the market was that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced a 50 basis point rate hike and said it would raise rates further to bring inflation back to target levels. The unexpected rate hike made the New Zealand dollar stand out among G10 currencies. The background of New Zealand's rate hike is that the New Zealand economy is heading for recession, and housing data released during the session also showed that house prices fell 10% year-on-year, the largest drop on record, making the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand even more difficult to understand. Asia-Pacific stocks were mixed, with the NZX50 giving up gains after New Zealand raised rates. The dollar index was just above 101.50 and was trying to get back to 102. The euro was just above 1.0950 and the pound was just below 1.2500. A number of US data are due to be released soon, including ADP data, international trade data and the ISM services PMI. The data will be closely watched, and market makers want to study the data to predict the path of US rate hikes. Regarding the ADP private sector employment data, the market expects the US to add 200,000 jobs in March, compared with 242,000 in February. Meanwhile, the much-watched ISM services PMI is expected to fall to 54.5 in March from 55.1 in February, and the ISM employment index, prices paid index and new orders index will also fall compared with previous months. There is no doubt that the disappointing data will cause the US dollar to fall, and the New Zealand dollar and gold will be the main beneficiaries. Alpha Trade The current price of gold is $2,023, mainly due to the weaker-than-expected JOLTS data yesterday. Gold traders will now be keeping a close eye on the $2030-2035 area above, which if breached (perhaps due to weak data in the afternoon) could test the all-time high of $2070. Currently $2000-2010 is seen as support, having previously been resistance. -
By tradinglounge · Posted
V Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Daily Chart, Visa Inc., (V) Daily Chart V Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Flat POSITION: Minor wave C. DIRECTION: Downside in wave C. DETAILS: We are standing at equality of (4) vs. (2) at 270$. Looking for either a triangle in wave (4) or else, a triangle in wave B as displayed. V Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge 4Hr Chart, Visa Inc., (V) 4Hr Chart V Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Counter Trend MODE: Corrective STRUCTURE: Flat POSITION: Wave {iii} of C. DIRECTION: Downside in {iii}. DETAILS: Looking for equality of C vs. A as 258$ as main downside target for this scenario. Welcome to our latest Elliott Wave analysis for Visa Inc. (V) as of June 13, 2024. This analysis provides an in-depth look at V's price movements using the Elliott Wave Theory, helping traders identify potential opportunities based on current trends and market structure. We will cover insights from both the daily and 4-hour charts to offer a comprehensive perspective on V's market behavior. * V Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – Daily Chart* In our Elliott Wave analysis of Visa Inc. (V), we observe a counter-trend corrective pattern characterized by a Flat structure. V is currently positioned in Minor wave C, indicating a downside move in wave C. The analysis shows that V has reached the equality of wave (4) vs. wave (2) at $270. We are monitoring for either a triangle formation in wave (4) or a continuation pattern in wave B as depicted. Traders should watch for further declines and potential completion of wave C, with a focus on price behavior around the $270 level to gauge whether a triangle will form or if a more direct path downward will unfold. *V Elliott Wave Technical Analysis – 4Hr Chart* On the 4-hour chart, V is following a counter-trend corrective mode within a Flat structure, specifically in wave {iii} of C. The current analysis indicates that V is targeting equality of wave C vs. wave A at $258 as the main downside objective. This target serves as a key level for potential support where a bounce could occur. Traders should observe the approach to $258 closely, as this level may offer opportunities for positioning either for a short-term reversal or continuation based on further pattern development. Technical Analyst : Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here! -
By tradinglounge · Posted
IBEX 35 (Spain) Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Day Chart, IBEX 35 (Spain) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: corrective STRUCTURE:orange wave 4 POSITION: navy blue wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: orange wave 5 DETAILS:orange wave 4 still is in play and looking near to end. Wave Cancel invalid level: 4618 The IBEX 35 Elliott Wave analysis on the daily chart is primarily concerned with tracking the trend within the market using a corrective mode. The current wave structure is identified as orange wave 4, positioned within the larger context of navy blue wave 3. This suggests the market is undergoing a corrective phase before transitioning to the next upward wave. The main function of this analysis is to monitor the trend within the IBEX 35 market. The corrective nature of the mode indicates that the market is currently adjusting within orange wave 4. This wave is part of the broader trend, positioned within navy blue wave 3, highlighting the temporary nature of the correction before resuming the upward movement. The direction for the next higher degrees is identified as orange wave 5. This indicates that once orange wave 4 completes, the market is expected to transition into the upward phase of orange wave 5, continuing the overall trend. Details in the analysis emphasize that orange wave 4 is still ongoing but is approaching its end. This signifies that the corrective phase is nearing completion, and the market is preparing to shift into the next phase, which is orange wave 5. This upcoming wave will resume the upward trend following the completion of the current correction. A critical aspect of this analysis is the wave cancel invalid level, set at 4618. This level is vital for maintaining the validity of the current wave count. If the market price drops below this level, the existing wave structure would be invalidated, requiring a reassessment of the Elliott Wave analysis and potentially altering the expected market direction. In summary, the IBEX 35 daily chart analysis indicates that the market is in the final stages of a corrective phase within orange wave 4, part of the broader navy blue wave 3. Upon the completion of orange wave 4, the market is expected to enter the upward phase of orange wave 5, continuing the overall trend. The wave cancel invalid level at 4618 is crucial for confirming the current wave count and guiding future market expectations based on Elliott Wave principles. IBEX 35 (Spain) Elliott Wave Analysis Trading Lounge Weekly Chart, IBEX 35 (Spain) Elliott Wave Technical Analysis FUNCTION: Trend MODE: corrective STRUCTURE:orange wave 4 POSITION: navy blue wave 3 DIRECTION NEXT HIGHER DEGREES: orange wave 5 DETAILS:orange wave 4 still is in play and looking near to end. Wave Cancel invalid level: 4618 The IBEX 35 Elliott Wave analysis on the weekly chart focuses on identifying and tracking the trend within the market using a corrective mode. The current wave structure is characterized as orange wave 4, which is positioned within the broader context of navy blue wave 3. This indicates that the market is undergoing a correction within an overall upward trend. The primary function of this analysis is to observe and interpret the trend behavior in the IBEX 35 market. The corrective mode signifies that the market is currently in a phase of adjustment, specifically within orange wave 4. This wave is part of the larger trend and indicates a temporary pause or retracement in the ongoing upward movement represented by navy blue wave 3. The analysis points to the next higher degrees direction as orange wave 5. This suggests that following the completion of the current corrective phase in orange wave 4, the market is expected to transition into the next upward phase, known as orange wave 5. This transition will continue the overall trend, resuming the upward movement. Detailed observations in the analysis highlight that orange wave 4 is still active but nearing its end. This means the current corrective phase is almost complete, and the market is preparing to move into orange wave 5. This upcoming wave will mark the continuation of the upward trend following the correction. An important aspect of this analysis is the wave cancel invalid level, which is set at 4618. This level serves as a critical point for maintaining the validity of the current wave structure. If the market price falls below this level, the current wave count would be invalidated, necessitating a reassessment of the Elliott Wave analysis and potentially altering the market outlook. In summary, the IBEX 35 weekly chart analysis indicates that the market is in the final stages of a corrective phase within orange wave 4, which is part of the larger navy blue wave 3. Once orange wave 4 is complete, the market is expected to shift into the upward phase of orange wave 5, continuing the overall trend. The wave cancel invalid level at 4618 is crucial for confirming the current wave count and guiding future market expectations based on Elliott Wave principles. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!
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