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  • General Statistics

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      10/06/21 10:53

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    • Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium prices drop ahead of central bank meetings Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and aluminium in view of this week‚Äôs Fed, ECB and BoE meetings. Source: Bloomberg ¬† ¬† ¬†Axel Rudolph FSTA¬†|¬†Senior Financial Analyst,¬†London¬†| Publication date:¬†Tuesday 31 January 2023 Brent crude oil slips to 55-day SMA Brent crude oil last week again failed at its key $87.99 to $89.35 resistance zone, made up of the mid-October low and December high, as traders await rate decisions by the likes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and their impact on the demand for oil. With the January support line having been slipped through this week, the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $83.99 and at the 19 January low at $83.98 are being revisited. Failure at these levels on a daily chart closing basis, would indicate that at least a short-term top is being formed with the 21 November low at $82.32 and the November trough at $80.81 being in focus. While the $83.98 level underpins on a daily chart closing basis, however, another attempt to break through the mid-October low to January highs at $87.99 to $89.35 may unfold. Having said that, only a rise and daily chart close above the $89.35 early December high would indicate that a technical bottom has been formed with the October and November highs as well as the 200-day SMA at $96.91 to $99.60 then representing upside targets. Source: ProRealTime Gold retraces lower from its nine-month high at $1,949 Last week‚Äôs rise in the price of gold to a new nine-month high at $1,942 per troy ounce has been followed by a steady retracement lower towards the November-to-January uptrend line at $1,908 as traders await a plethora of interest rate decisions by the likes of the Fed, ECB and BoE. Support below the uptrend line can be spotted at the $1,897 mid-January trough. Were it to be slipped through, a deeper correction lower may be witnessed with the June 2022 high at $1,877 being eyed. Immediate resistance is to be found at the $1,929 mid-January high and also at Monday‚Äôs $1,934 high. Only a currently unexpected advance above the recent high at $1,949 would put the $1,959 January 2021 peak and then the April 2022 peak at $1,998 as well as the psychological $2,000 mark back on the map. These levels remain in focus as long as the 18 January low at $1,897 and the March 2022 lows at $1,896 to $1,891 aren‚Äôt being slipped through. Source: ProRealTime Aluminium has been rejected by its seven-month high Aluminium‚Äôs near 20% January rally on expectations that China‚Äôs swift reopening will lead to higher demand for the metal has taken it to a seven-month high at $2,678 per metric ton. This level could not, however, be overcome last week with the metal falling back to its $2,555 mid-January low this week, a slip through which would confirm a minor top being formed. A drop through the $2,555 low would engage 200-day SMA at $2,493. Minor resistance can now be spotted at the $2,576 December high and also at last Friday‚Äôs $2,607 low. Source: ProRealTime
    • Early Morning Call: IMF raises 2023 global growth forecast, but cuts UK outlook Overnight, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth outlook to 2.9%, from a previous estimate of 2.7% in October. ¬†Jeremy Naylor¬†|¬†Writer,¬†London¬†| Publication date:¬†Tuesday 31 January 2023¬† Macro overview Equity markets open lower in Europe, following the path of US and APAC indices. Overnight, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth outlook to 2.9%, from a previous estimate of 2.7% in October. It remains below the 3.4% global growth recorded in 2022. The IMF revised its expectations after observing "surprisingly resilient" demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China's economy. For 2024, the IMF said global growth would accelerate slightly to 3.1%, a touch lower than the 3.2% October forecast. In detail, the IMF now expects US GDP growth of 1.4%, up from 1.0% predicted in October and following 2.0% growth in 2022. Also upwardly revised, eurozone GDP growth is now forecast at 0.7% for 2023, versus a previous estimate of 0.5%, and following 3.5% growth in 2022. The UK is the only major advanced economy the IMF predicts to be in recession this year, with a 0.6% fall in GDP. As for China, the IMF revised its growth outlook higher for 2023, to 5.2% from 4.4% in the October forecast. Economic activity in China bounced back in January according to the NBS survey. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, from 47.0 in December. The 50-point mark separates contraction from growth. Economists anticipated a rise, but only to 49.7. Non-manufacturing increased to 54.4, a substantial jump from 41.6 recorded in December. This marks an end to contraction that started in September 2022. After 11 straight months of gains, Australia retail sales dropped by 3.9% in December month-on-month (MoM), the index's largest drop in more than two years. Economists had forecast a drop of 0.3%. November's result, driven by Black Friday sales, was revised up to a 1.7% increase, from an initially reported gain of 1.4%. Retail sales in Japan rose 3.8% in December 2022 from a year earlier, exceeding forecasts for a 3% growth and following a 2.5% gain in November. This was also the tenth straight month of growth in retail trade. Industrial production in Japan edged down 0.1 percent month-over-month in December 2022, compared with market forecasts of a 1.2 percent fall and after a 0.2 percent rise a month earlier, and consumer confidence rose to 31 in January, from 30.3 the previous month, beating expectations of 30.5. In Germany, retail sales fell by 5.3% in December MoM, versus a consensus of a 0.2% rise. Later this morning at 08.55, Germany's unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.5%. And at 1pm, we await consumer price index for the month of January. Forecasts are for a 9.2% rise year-on-year (YoY). France‚Äôs economy grew 0.1% in Q4 quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) versus expectations of 0%. At 10am, the eurozone Q4 GDP growth rate is forecast to contract by 0.1% QoQ. Over in the US, S&P/Case Shiller home price is expected to increase by 6.8% in November YoY. Chicago PMI is forecast to rise to 45.1 in January, from 44.9 the previous month. And CB consumer confidence is expected to rise to 109 in January from 108.4 in December. Forex The¬†US dollar¬†is set for a fourth straight monthly loss in January and it's down to central banks expectations.¬†EUR/USD¬†is up 1.3% this month, and near a nine-month peak. The market expects rates hikes to slow in the US, while there is a longer way to go the the eurozone. The¬†Japanese yen¬†is poised for a third monthly gain against the greenback as markets anticipate shifts in monetary policy. Earnings Elsewhere on the equity market,¬†Pets at Home¬†raised its full-year (FY) pretax profit guidance after record Q3 consumer revenues. The group says that robust trading momentum has continued into Q4, and with eight weeks of the year left to trade, it expects FY23 profit before tax towards the upper end of the current consensus range of ¬£126-136 million, ahead of previous guidance of ¬£131m. UBS¬†reported a 23% increase in fourth quarter profit, beating analyst estimates. The Swiss bank reported net profit attributable to shareholders of $1.7 billion, versus the $1.3bn expected by analysts surveyed by UBS. Full-year net profit reached $7.6bn, compared with the consensus estimate of $7.3bn. US earnings season continues with reports from¬†Pfizer,¬†Exxon Mobil,¬†General Motors,¬†Caterpillar,¬†Advanced Micro Devices,¬†McDonald‚Äôs,¬†Snap, and UPS among others. ¬† This is here for you to¬†catch up¬†but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV¬†team we‚Äôre more than happy to.
    • Block Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Block Inc., (SQ:NASDAQ): Daily Chart, 31 January 23, SQ Stock Market Analysis: At this point I am considering the possibility of an ending diagonal in wave C to then retrace lower into wave (B). We have touched and found resistance off equality of C vs. A.¬†¬† SQ Elliott Wave Count: Wave {v} of C. SQ Technical Indicators: 200EMA as resistance.¬†¬† SQ Trading Strategy: Looking for downside in wave (B) to then start looking for shorts.¬†¬† TradingLounge Analyst: Alessio Barretta Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here! ¬† Block Inc., SQ: 4-hour Chart, 31 January 23, Block Inc., Elliott Wave Technical Analysis SQ Stock Market Analysis: Looking for a sharp move down soon to confirm the count, ideally we can break the bottom of wave {iv} to have further confirmation. SQ Elliott Wave count: Wave (i) of {a}. SQ Technical Indicators: Above all averages. SQ Trading Strategy: Looking for confirmation to then build shorts.
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