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  • General Statistics

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      10/06/21 10:53

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    Joined 29/11/21 05:35
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    • DOW JONES OUTLOOK – TALKING POINTS: Dow Jones down most in 13 months on “Omicron” Covid variant Breaking near-term support might expose 6-month range bottom Reclaiming a foothold above 35547 needed to neutralize sellers The Dow Jones Industrial Average equity index tracking 30 blue-chip US companies plunged on Friday, shedding an eye-watering 2.49 percent and marking the largest one-day loss in 13 months. The plunge came as the World Health Organization (WHO) identified a new worrying variant of Covid-19, dubbed “Omicron”. The mutant virus seems to have spread significantly in Africa. While vaccine efficacy against it is an open question, a UK health official warned they will “almost certainly” prove less potent. A slew of countries promptly moved restrict travel and investors rushed for the exits at the prospect of another economic shutdown. Prices are now testing major inflection-zone support anchored at 34690. Breaking below that may set the stage for an extension lower to challenge the floor for the range prevailing in the second half of the year, in the 32902-33383 region. A bit of friction may be seen at the 34170-398 congestion area along the way. Immediate resistance is at 35091, a minor barrier that has acted as short-term pivot since August. Above that, a meatier resistance block is capped at 35547. Overcoming the latter threshold – with confirmation on a daily closing basis – seems like a prerequisite for neutralizing near-term selling pressure. Dow Jones futures daily chart created with TradingView DOW JONES TRADING RESOURCES Just getting started in the markets? See our free trading guides What is your trading personality? Take our quiz to find out Join a free webinar and have your trading questions answered Written by Ilya Spivak, Head of Greater Asia at DailyFX.com. 29th November 2021
    • EURO, EUR/USD, US DOLLAR, CRUDE OIL, AUD, CAD, NOK, NZD - TALKING POINTS Euro retraced some of Friday’s gains as the market takes stock APAC equities were weaker and Treasury yields recovered The Fed tightening timeline is moving. Will EUR/USD go lower? The Euro gave up some of Friday’s gains against the US Dollar in Asia today. The tightening timeline for the Fed was pushed out and this had helped EUR/USD go higher. As the pace of the taper comes back in, so does demand for USD. Markets return to normal liquidity today after a wild ride to finish last week.US Treasury yields recovered roughly a third of their losses from Friday. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty around the impacts of Omicron, government policy in many countries is changing quickly. Japan has already moved to ban all foreign visitors from 30th November. Other governments are restricting travel to varying degrees. Markets are reacting to the potential economic impacts of these rule changes. Reports from the South African Health Department have indicated that they are of the view that the health impact may not be as severe as previous strains. Many countries are erring on the side of caution after the experience of the Delta strain wreaking havoc. In Asia today, markets took a deep breath and unwound some of the severe risk-off moves seen on Friday. The perceived safe-haven currencies of the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc weakened but remain at lofty levels compared to prior to the outbreak news. APAC stocks were down on the day but have recovered from large early losses. The major equity indices across the region were weaker by less than 1%. At the time of going to print, US futures were indicating a positive day for North America bourses. Gold is slightly softer but crude oil was up over 5% at one stage in the Asian session, recovering from Friday’s 13% sell-off. The Norwegian Krone was the best performing currency as a result. The other commodity currencies of AUD, CAD and NZD were also firmer. Looking ahead, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to appear before the Senate. The market will be on tenterhooks for any fresh news on Omicron. EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EUR/USD made a low last week at 1.11861 which is just above the June 2020 low of 1.11682. These levels could provide support. The rally on Friday saw EUR/USD cross above the 10-day simple moving average (SMA) but it remains below all other medium and long term SMAs. This might indicate that short-term momentum could be bullish bit longer term momentum potentially remains bearish. On the topside, the previous highs and pivot points at 1.13741, 1.15245, 1.16694 and 1.16922 are possible resistance levels. Chart created in TradingView   Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com. 29th November 2021
    • GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK: Gold prices seesawed on Omicron variant news as real rates rose Testimony from Fed Chair Powell now in focus, may offer support Technically, prices are testing the mettle of a three-month uptrend Gold prices seesawed as illiquid financial markets drained dry by US Thanksgiving holiday closures convulsed on World Health Organization (WHO) reports of a new “of-concern” Covid-19 variant, dubbed Omicron. Bullion initially rallied as bond yields fell and the futures-implied Fed rate-hike path flattened a bit for 2022-23. Gains would prove to be short-lived however, with a rapid intraday reversal bringing gold nearly all the way to flat by the daily close. Worries about a slowdown in growth in the event of another wave of lockdowns pulled down inflation expectations. In turn, that lifted real interest rates (nominal rates less expected inflation). This undermined gold’s store-of-value appeal. The metal yields nothing, but a return of 0% seems attractive when compared to a negative one on cash, after accounting for inflation. The rise in real rates cut into that appeal, pulling prices down off the highs as the markets weighed Omicron’s potential implications. The way forward may hinge on incoming comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. He is due to testify before Congress this week and will almost certainly face a grilling on how Omicron or even some future problematic variant might echo in the Fed’s rate-hike plans. Mr Powell may revert to a familiar script, reiterating the Fed party line that rapid reflation owes mostly to “transitory” factors and hinting that policymakers are not in a hurry. This might be amplified with some mention of two-way risk in the size of the monthly QE taper. Gold may find support against such a backdrop. GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – THREE-MONTH UPTREND IN THE BALANCE Gold prices are idling above support guiding them higher since August. Immediate resistance is capped at 1808.16, with a daily close above that exposing the next barrier at 1834.14. Alternatively, securing a break of 1750.78 might hand sellers the initiative, with support anchored at 1717.89 in view thereafter. Gold price chart created using TradingView GOLD TRADING RESOURCES What is your trading personality? Take our quiz to find out See our guide to build confidence in your trading strategy Join a free live webinar and have your questions answered Written by Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC for DailyFX. 29th November 2021.
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