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      10/06/21 10:53

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    • EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD gain ground ahead of US jobs report EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD heading into multi-month highs ahead of the latest US jobs report. Source: Bloomberg   Forex United States dollar Market sentiment EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD  Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 December 2022  EUR/USD hits fresh five-month high EUR/USD has enjoyed another leg higher this week, with the price rising into a fresh five-month high yesterday. Today brings expectations of further volatility, with markets waiting cautiously for the latest jobs report this afternoon. With expectations that payrolls will fall back to levels not seen since the start of the year, a decline through that key 200k threshold could bring heightened volatility for the dollar. For now, we have a clear uptrend in play since the lows of late-September. As such, further upside looks likely, with a break back below the recent low of $1.029 required to negate that bullish view. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD rises back towards key resistance GBP/USD has also been on the front foot over the course of this week, building on the gains seen since the end of September. The wider bearish trend is negated with a break up through the $1.2294 swing-high, which is within touching distance today. With the price having already engaged that level yesterday, it will be crucial to watch whether price breaches that August high or reverses lower for the time being. As such, keep an eye out for how we respond to the $1.2294 swing-high as a basis for near-term sentiment here. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD heads towards a confluence of resistance AUD/USD has maintained its recent bullish trajectory, with the price reaching a two-month high yesterday. Despite seeing Australian inflation fall back from 7.3% to 6.9% on Wednesday, the comments from Jerome Powell on that same day helped drive a dollar decline which pushed the pair higher once again. From a wider perspective, the long-term downtrend does remain intact here, with a confluence of 200 simple moving average (SMA) and 76.4% Fibonacci resistance up ahead. As such, while the recent uptrend does signal the expectation of further upside, it is worthwhile watching whether resistance comes into play around $0.6908. A break below the recent $0.664 swing-low would be required to bring about a fresh bearish signal for the pair. Source: ProRealTime
    • FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 give back gains ahead of US unemployment data Outlook on FTSE 100, DAX 40 and CAC 40 ahead of US non-farm payrolls data. Source: Bloomberg   Indices Unemployment United States Stock market index CAC 40 DAX  Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 December 2022  FTSE 100 comes off its near six-month high The FTSE 100 is seen coming off its near six-month high at 7,618 ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) data as traders who had bought equities over the past month or so take some of their profits off the table within a key resistance area. It consists of the 7,621 to 7,671 April-to-June highs. Short-term a fall towards the 7,515 September peak and the minor psychological 7,500 mark may thus ensue with the area around the 7,577 August peak acting as potential minor resistance. While Monday’s low at 7,421 underpins, however, the medium-term October-to-December uptrend remains valid. Source: ProRealTime DAX 40 consolidation ongoing ahead of US unemployment data The DAX 40 is taking a breather, following its steep, over 23%, October-to-November bear market rally amid hopes that China might loosen its strict Covid-19 policy and as market participants await US unemployment data which could influence the rates outlook. On Thursday the DAX 40 gave back some of its recent strong gains with it revisiting the October-to-December uptrend line at 14,454 which is expected to soon give way since this week’s near six-month high at 14,606 hasn’t been confirmed by the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI). This means that negative divergence can be seen on the daily chart and points to a likely retracement lower soon taking shape. This isn’t expected to lead to a large decline in December, however, since the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Put/Call ratio has quickly fallen to low levels under 40% over the past few weeks, showing that far more puts than calls have been bought over that time. When this happens, equity markets tend not to fall very far and, conversely, have a high probability of rallying in the near future. Furthermore, since 1950 there have been three times as many positive as negative Decembers for markets such as the S&P 500 which European equity indices are influenced by to a large extent. Only a slip through this week’s low at 14,325 would trigger a minor top formation in the DAX 40 and put the mid-November lows at 14,150 to 14,125 back on the map. Source: ProRealTime The CAC 40 falters at key resistance ahead of US unemployment data The French CAC 40 index’s advance of over 20% has taken it to an eight-month high before being capped by the area seen between the late April high at 6,759 and the late March high at 6,831 which represent key resistance ahead of the publication of US unemployment data. The two-month support line at 6,730 is thus being revisited with a slip back towards the August peak and this week’s low at 6,641 to 6,626 now being on the cards, especially since negative divergence can be spotted on the daily chart. While the index remains above this week’s low at 6,641, however, the October-to-December uptrend remains valid. Source: ProRealTime
    • Gold rallies and oil holds steady, while natural gas continues to drop back Gold prices have enjoyed strong gains this week, but oil prices have hit some selling and natural gas remains under pressure. Source: Bloomberg      Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 02 December 2022  Gold clears the 200-day MA again The price has enjoyed two days of strong gains, taking it to its highest level since early August and above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since July. The weaker US dollar continues to be a boon for the commodity, providing it with the foundation to push higher. Further gains now seem to target the cluster of resistance levels between $1830 and $1875, as the price continues to claw back losses from earlier in the year. There has been no sign of a reversal here, but a move back below $1787 might provide some signs of a short-term consolidation. Source: ProRealTime WTI rebound stalls A rebound from the lows of the week at $73.66 has carried the price back above $81. Gains for a third day faltered around $83 yesterday, but the price has not yet gone into reverse. Instead it has paused, and we wait to see if the price can recover today and push on towards the 50-day SMA ($84.33) or whether it will head lower and bring about a fresh retest of the September lows around $76.48. Above the 50-day SMA, the price will head on towards the 100-day SMA ($87.27) and then on to the October and November highs at $92.50. Source: ProRealTime Natural gas heads back to 50-day MA The reversal goes on here, with the price now testing the 50-day SMA as possible support. The drop from the November high above 8000 over the past two weeks has dented hopes that gas prices are poised to continue their ascent from the October low. At present we are still in potential higher low territory, ideally if the price can bounce from above the 50-day SMA (6573). This might then set the price up for a move back to the November highs. Continued losses would push the price in the direction of 6000, where it found support in mid-November. Source: ProRealTime
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