- 0
-
General Statistics
-
Total Topics23,007
-
Total Posts95,355
-
Total Members43,625
-
Most Online7,522
10/06/21 10:53
-
-
-
Posts
-
By Kiaramiles · Posted
Thanks for this interesting solution! Very useful! -
European indices face uncertain times as central banks take divergent stances, with the DAX showing signs of a potential correction. Source: Bloomberg DAX Indices European Central Bank Recession Monetary Policy Committee (United Kingdom) Central bank Tony Sycamore | Market Analyst, Australia | Publication date: Tuesday 26 September 2023 06:19 BoE's cash rate on top of 'Table Mountain' Last week saw the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the BoE deliver hawkish holds in contrast to the European Central Bank's (ECB’s) dovish hike the previous week. The BoE was empowered to keep its official cash rate at 5.25% after the release of a cooler-than-expected August consumer price index (CPI), just a day before the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. Unless there is an upside in inflation or wage growth from here, the BoE’s official cash rate is now on top of Table Mountain, to borrow the analogy of the BoE’s Chief economist Huw Pill. For those unfamiliar with Table Mountain, it looks exactly like the name suggests. Pill’s analogy warns that rates in the UK will need to remain higher for longer. In the current climate, where activity data is already sliding, this increases the chance of a recession in the UK. For those looking for further evidence of why the ECB delivered a dovish hike the prior week, last night's German ifo business climate index printed at 85.7 in September, the weakest level since October 2022 when fears of a European recession and European energy crisis were at their greatest. The ifo print likely confirms the ECB’s rate hiking cycle is over and that the German economy will likely lead Europe into recession. DAX technical analysis During September, the view has been that the correction in the DAX, which started from the late August 16615 high, was missing a leg lower and had further to go. The overnight close below the 200-day moving average at 15629 and break of the mid-August low at 15511 warns that the missing and final leg (Wave C) of a three-wave ABC pullback has commenced, which targets a move to wave equality at 15000. Should the pullback play out as expected and signs of basing emerge in the 15000 area, we expect to see the uptrend resume, which would see the DAX test and break the July 16615 high. DAX daily chart Source: TradingView FTSE technical analysis In early September, contrary to our expectations, the FTSE rebounded from the critically important 7200 level, initially supported by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey's dovish comments in late August and then by the dovish ECB meeting. The hawkish hold from the BoE and the Fed last week appears to have capped the rally at 7750 and prompted the FTSE to fall back within its range and below the 200-day moving average at 7637. While the FTSE remains below resistance at 7750, there is a good chance of further rotation within the 7750/7200 range. Aware that if the FTSE were to see a sustained break of support at 7200, there is scope for it to extend its decline towards 7000 before a retest of the 2022 lows 6800/6700 area. FTSE daily chart Source: TradingView TradingView: The figures stated are as of 26 September 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary. -
Crude oil prices paused rallying last week, while retail traders slightly increased upside bets and pondered the short-term outlook for WTI. Source: Bloomberg Shares Commodities Petroleum WTI Market sentiment Oil Daniel Dubrovsky | Currency Analyst, DailyFX, San Francisco | Publication date: Tuesday 26 September 2023 05:09 Crude oil sentiment outlook: bearish Crude oil prices took a breather last week, leaving West Texas Intermediate (WTI) little changed by Friday. This meant a pause after weeks of consistent gains. Recent data from IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) shows that there has been a cautious increase in upside exposure in crude oil. IGCS tends to function as a contrarian indicator, with that in mind, could oil aim lower in the near term? According to IGCS, only 36% of retail traders are net-long crude oil. Since most of them are biased to the downside, this continues to suggest that prices may rally down the road. That said, upside exposure has increased by 7.73% and 1.81% from the last trading day and one week ago, respectively. With that in mind, recent changes in positioning hint that prices might soon reverse lower ahead. IG Client Sentiment chart Source: DailyFX WTI crude oil technical analysis On the daily chart below, WTI has pushed higher over the past 48 hours (trading days). This is somewhat undermining the emergence of a Bearish Engulfing from last week. This followed a rejection of the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level of 88.75, where support was reinforced. As such, this is leaving a neutral technical setting in the very short term. Key resistance is the 92.43 – 93.72 range, made up of highs from November. Meanwhile, the 20-day moving sverage is creeping higher. The latter may hold as support, maintaining the upside technical bias. Otherwise, a breakout below it subsequently places the focus on the 84.84 inflection zone. WTI crude oil daily chart Source: TradingView This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Australia Pty Ltd. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
-
Question
JohnNL
I received inconsistent messages from IG before and after moving abroad. When I asked the question in October last year what the consequences are of moving abroad I was first told that I'd be required to close my account. After asking for further clarification, a second person told me that I'd still be able to trade from my account, but that I wouldn't be able to fund it with new cash. I could live with that.
Now that I've moved to the Netherlands and notified IG, I first received a message that my ISA eligibility has changed (no surprise there). The message also confirmed the previous reply from support that I can still trade from my account. The Q&A 'What do I need to do next' only says something about US tax forms, nothing about liquidating my account.
Dear Mr xx
As you have recently changed your country of residence, you’re no longer eligible for an ISA. You can still trade from the account, but you won’t be able to add more funds.
What do I need to do next?
If you currently hold US stocks with us, you’ll need to complete and submit a new US tax form (normally a W8-BEN) within 28 days in order to maintain your holdings (...)
But then last Friday (26/3), just before the market closing time, I got this shocking email with the subject 'Important: 5 days left to withdraw your share dealing funds'
Dear Mr xx
Your share dealing account is set to be closed from 31 March 2021 since we can no longer service European Economic Area (EEA) clients through the UK.
As you have funds on your account, you’ll need to withdraw them via My IG before Wednesday 31 March. After this, you may not be able to log in to your account – meaning you’ll have to contact us to withdraw your funds.
(...)
We will close your account once it is cleared of funds, and terminate our relationship, from 31 March. Termination is given pursuant to Term 26 of the latest Customer Agreement that governs your account with us.
You will be sent a closing statement within five working days of your account closing.
Please note that the above also applies if your shares are held in an ISA.
So I have exactly 2 working days to sell all my positions and withdraw my funds.
When I contacted support about this I received this rather abusive reply:
This is not a mistake as you would have noticed and been informed that your Share dealing account was set to closings only. Please refer to the correspondence previously sent out for more information on this.
Yes I was informed that my share dealing account was set to closings only. However, I was never informed that I had to sell everything by March 31.
So I have some questions:
1. Is it possible to get an extension to clear my account? 2 working days is not reasonable.
2. What if I don't do anything? Will IG sell my positions and transfer the funds to my bank account?
3. Why on earth do you send such conflicting messages to your customers? Can't you be transparent from the start and avoid such short-notice nasty-surprise emails??
4. Could you please teach your support some manners and politeness, and ask them to try to understand the customer's situation, especially when a failure of communication on the part of IG is the cause for the customer's frustration.
Thank you
John
Link to comment
1 answer to this question
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now