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EMFX USD/BRL opportunity


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I was looking at the overnight funding rates on some of the emerging currencies, and generally speaking the rates offer on short trades are relatively high, which for me is greater than 5%. Usually this would be because currencies like the Turkish Lira (TRY) are in perpetual free fall, and short trades are a loosing bet, so the interest offered on shorting the Lira are very high (34%).

But the Brazilian Real (BRL) offers an attractive rate (7%) and seems to be steadily depreciating against the USD. If the value of USD is currently high, and likely to fall in value relative to other currencies, then selling USD/BRL looks like an attractive trade, because you get both a capital gain from the short trade, but also a good rate of interest on maintaining the trade overnight.

My view is that the outlook for commodities produced by the Brazilian economy is good, so the Real is in a good position to see its value hold steady. With falling oil prices, the outlook for US inflation suggests that interest rates will fall soon, maybe more quickly than the Fed expects. So in my view, BRL is likely to strengthen relative to USD the medium term, so this trade looks very attractive.

Have I misunderstood, or is shorting USD/BRL a really attractive trade even if the USD strengthens in the short term?

 

2023-11-10 USD BRL.png

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