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SoyBeans Elliott Wave Technical Analysis 11 March 24


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Soybean Elliott wave Analysis- recovery before fresh sell-off?

Soybean's trajectory in March has been marked by a semblance of recovery. Yet, within the larger context of its wave sequences, this upturn is merely a fragment of an overall bearish trend. Following this corrective rebound, it's anticipated that the commodity will continue its descent towards lower price territories.

Delving into the daily time frame, Soybean has been trapped within a bearish correction since June 2022. This correction phase ensued after a bullish impulse wave spanning from May 2019 to June 2022. Presently, the ongoing bearish correction since June 2022 appears to be culminating in what is likely a zigzag pattern, specifically denoted as wave A-B-C in blue (circled). Notably, wave A concluded in October 2023, characterized by a diagonal pattern, succeeded shortly thereafter by a shallow correction for wave B. The current downward momentum commenced in November 2023, marking the initiation of wave C. Notably, blue wave C appears to be progressing towards its latter stages, as it appears to be correcting upwards within wave (4) of C. However, wave (4) has not yet reached its culmination, warranting scrutiny to discern when, where, and how it might conclude.

Zooming in on the H4 timeframe offers a clearer perspective on the sub-waves of wave (4). Although the definitive corrective pattern for wave (4) remains uncertain, several potential scenarios can be inferred based on the prevailing chart data. The surge from the low of wave (3) exhibits characteristics of a sharp yet corrective movement, indicative of one of the zigzag patterns, possibly a double or triple 3 pattern (double or triple zigzag). It's conceivable that wave (4) could extend towards 1200 or higher, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of wave (3). While a further climb to the 50% retracement level at 1258 is plausible, it's improbable for wave (4) to exceed this threshold, given that fourth waves typically correct within the range of 23.6% to 50% of the preceding third wave.

Vigilance is paramount around the mentioned price zone, particularly during the bullish correction of wave 4. Observing the subsequent price action in this region will be instrumental in validating our forecast. A decisive bearish reversal from this zone could signify the conclusion of wave (4) and the initiation of the anticipated bearish decline from June 2022, constituting wave (5) of C.

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

 

 

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