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Corn Commodity Elliott Wave Technical Analysis


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Corn Elliott Wave Analysis

 

Function - Trend 
Mode - Counter-Trend
Structure - Expecting Impulse Wave 
Position - Wave 3
Direction - Wave 3 is still in play
Details - Wave 2 ended. The surge afterward suggests wave 3 is in play. A break above 448’4 confirms that. Further extension upwards of 480-517 is expected to complete the impulse from 394.
 
Corn concluded March on a positive note, extending its recovery from the final week of February. Within a span of slightly over a month, the commodity has managed to regain more than 10% of its value. However, this apparent rebound must be contextualized against the broader trend: between April 2022 and February 2024, Corn experienced a staggering decline, losing over half of its value. Thus, while the recent uptick is noteworthy, it remains relatively minor when considering the larger historical context.
 
While a complete recovery from the slump of the past two years seems less probable, the ongoing uptrend may persist for a while before encountering resistance from bearish forces. In this commodity analysis, we aim to delve into the potential extent of the current bounce and offer insights on how traders can strategically position themselves to capitalize on it.
 
Examining the daily timeframe, the decline from the peak of 824 in April 2022 to the low of 394 in February 2024 appears to have formed an A-B-C pattern, though there's a possibility it could evolve into a bearish impulse. Consequently, it's reasonable to anticipate that the current recovery will manifest as a 3-wave bounce, targeting at least a 23.6-38.3% Fibonacci retracement zone (470-524) relative to the sell-off from April 2022.
 
On the H4 timeframe, we observe the initial phase of this 3-wave recovery. The completion of the first leg, identified as Blue wave A on the daily timeframe, marked the conclusion of Wave 1, followed by a corrective wave 2. The initiation of Wave 3 is signaled by a significant bullish candle, with confirmation contingent upon a breakout above 448. Should the price action remain choppy and fail to sustain above 448, or worse, drop below 426, it would imply a deeper retracement for wave 2. Nonetheless, regardless of the specifics, the overarching expectation is for Wave 3 to extend the rally from February 2024 towards higher price levels, whether initiated from above 448 or below 426, as long as the low of 394 remains unbroken. Traders should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly to navigate the evolving market dynamics.

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