Joined 30/03/23 08:39
Trading the Trend: long Nasdaq 100 Since the Nasdaq 100 is trading above Tuesday’s ‘Hammer’ formation high on the daily candlestick chart, it is expected to continue its advance towards the December and January highs. We would therefore like to go long the Nasdaq 100 at 12,730 with an upside target at 13,315 and a stop-loss just below this week’s low at 12,515.
Early Morning Call: ASX 200 outperforms APAC indices thanks to mining stocks European and US equity markets ended Wednesday’s session higher, but overnight only the Australian S&P/ASX 200 recorded gains, with the help of mining stocks. Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Thursday 30 March 2023 Indices overview European and US equity markets ended Wednesday’s session higher, but overnight only the Australian S&P/ASX 200 recorded gains, with the help of mining stocks. In an interview with CNBC, Fortescue Metals CEO Andrew Forrest said he thinks that China's economic recovery will lead to a demand in commodities stronger than during the period that followed the 2008 crisis. At the time, China avoided recession with a stimulus programme that supported infrastructure development, which boosted demand for commodities. Since 2008, China's economy has grown to become the world's second largest economy. Macroeconomic indicators Calm prevails on the currency market ahead of a few macroeconomic indicators expected later today. At 1pm, the market awaits the latest CPI data from Germany. Economists expect the index to rise 7.3% in March year-on-year (YoY), decelerating from an 8.7% growth in February. The EU harmonised CPI, a reading favoured by Christine Lagarde's team, is forecast at 7.5% YoY, after 9.3% the previous month. In the US, expect the final reading of US GDP in the first quarter. Economists anticipate the US economy to have expanded 2.7% during that period. Equities Yesterday Alibaba announced a major restructuring plan that would transform the group into a holding company and that its activities would be divided in six sub-divisions, each with their own CEOs and boards. Alibaba shares soared as much at 16% on the news. Overnight, Alibaba group CEO Daniel Zhang told investors that the breakup will allow its units to become more agile and eventually list on their own. On the same call, Alibaba CFO Toby Xu said the group would "continue to evaluate the strategic importance of these companies" and "decide whether or not to continue to retain control", adding that "each company can pursue financing and IPO as and when they are ready". When asked about the timeline for the listings, Xu said the changes would come into effect immediately. This plan makes sense to analysts, who believe Alibaba is currently undervalued as a conglomerate. Even Morgan Stanley thinks the stock value could double. A breakup would allow investors to value each business division independently. Alibaba shareholders would also be better protected from regulatory pressures. Penalties levied on one division would in theory not affect the operations of another. Since Chinese authorities started their crackdown on the country's tech sector, Alibaba's market valuation fell from $800 billion to $260bn. Commodities US crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week according to the latest EIA inventories. Crude inventories fell by 7.5 million barrels as refineries restarted operations after maintenance. Refinery operations hit their highest so far this year, up by 1.7 percentage points to 90.3% of total capacity. Gasoline stocks fell by 2.9 million barrels, and distillate stockpiles rose by 300,000 barrels. This is here for you to catch up but if you have any ideas on markets or events you want us to relay to the TV team we’re more than happy to.
Asian markets racked up another positive close overall, although the Nikkei came under pressure and ended down 0.5%. Banking crisis fears continue to ease, and while investors are still watching for any fresh pressure, they are certainly glad that the problem seems to have been dealt with. The focus now goes back to the broader economy, with US initial jobless claims and German CPI on the agenda for today, followed up by US PCE data tomorrow. Another positive open is expected for European markets.
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