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KoketsoIG

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  1. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
    Week commencing 6 May
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    A quieter week lies ahead, with many of the biggest names of US earnings season now behind us. But UK oil giant BP will release its first quarter figures, while the Australian and UK central banks are both expected to leave rates unchanged at their meetings this week.
    Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    None UK bank holidays – UK markets are closed.

    Tuesday
    5.30 am – RBA rate decision: rates expected to be left unchanged at 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

    9.30 am – UK construction PMI (April): expected to rise to 50.3. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    3 pm – Canada Ivey PMI (April): index forecast to fall to 56.8 from 57.5. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    Wednesday
    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 3 May): The preceding week saw stockpiles rise by 7.3 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Thursday
    4 am – China trade data (April): exports forecast to fall 2% YoY, up from a 7.5% drop in March. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

    12 pm – Bank of England rate decision: rates expected to remain at 5.25%, with eight of nine MPC members expected to vote to hold rates unchanged, and one to vote to cut rates. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 4 May). Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    7 am – UK GDP (Q1, preliminary): growth expected to be 0.2% QoQ from -0.3% in Q4, and 0.5% YoY from -0.2% a year ago. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    1.30 pm – Canada employment data (April): unemployment rate to hold at 6.1%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    3 pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (May, preliminary): index forecast to rise to 78 from 77.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    6 May
    Tuesday
    7 May
    Wednesday
    8 May
    Thursday
    9 May
    Friday
    10 May
    Full-year earnings
              Half/ Quarterly earnings
      BP,
    Disney Ab-InBev,
    Airbnb     Trading update*
      Direct Line JDWetherspoon ITV,
    Rathbones,
    John Wood Group IAG  
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: Admiral, HSBC
    FTSE 250: Sthree, Clarkson, Bellevue Healthcare, Ibstock, Lancashire Holding, Petershill Partners, AG Barr
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
     
    Monday
    6 May Tuesday
    7 May Wednesday
    8 May Thursday
    9 May Friday
    10 May Monday
    13 May FTSE 100     19.59       Australia 200 8.8 0.1 8.5   12.9   Wall Street     12.3 1.6     US 500 0.27 0.01 1.08 0.84 0.08 0.84 Nasdaq 1.56   1.69 2.48   1.11 Netherlands 25     1.28 0.34     EU Stocks 50     13.8 0.5 6.1   China H-Shares         1.4   Singapore Blue Chip 0.08 1.39 1.05       Hong Kong HS50   1.7 54.6   2.6 4.7 South Africa 40   54.0         Italy 40             Japan 225            
  2. KoketsoIG
    Please be advised that our opening hours will be adjusted on 1 May 2024 for International Workers’ Day and 6 May 2024 for the UK Early May Bank Holiday. Where appropriate, the times listed are in BST.
    Date
    Market hours
    Wednesday 1 May

    International Workers' Day
    European, Hong Kong & South African equity markets will be closed.
    We’ll offer out-of-hours pricing on European, Hong Kong and South African indices until 10 pm BST.
    European rates and bonds will be closed.
     
    Monday 6 May

    Early May Bank Holiday
    UK equities, indices, rates and bonds and commodities will be closed, except for Brent Crude and London Gas Oil. We’ll offer out-of-hours pricing on the FTSE 100.
    Corrected: New York Cocoa, New York Coffee and New York Sugar will open later at 12.30pm BST.
    Disclaimer: The information provided above is accurate to the best of our knowledge. They are subjected to change and should only be used as guidance.
  3. KoketsoIG
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
    Week commencing 22 April
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    This week is one of those busy weeks that occurs about three times a quarter, as a rush of key economic data and big-name earnings hit markets. Flash PMIs, the German IFO index and durable goods orders lead up to flash quarter 1 (Q1) Gross domestic product (GDP) for the US, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision and US PCE price data. Meanwhile, earnings come through from the US, Europe and the UK, including UK and eurozone banks, and of course more of the big tech stocks, as Tesla, Alphabet and Microsoft report figures for the most recent quarter.
    Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    1.30 pm – US Chicago Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) index (March): expected to rise to 0.09. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Tuesday
    Tuesday 8.30 am – German PMI (April, flash): Manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) forecast to rise to 42.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

    9.30 am – UK PMI (April, flash): services PMI expected to rise to 53.4 and manufacturing to rise to 50.7. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    2.45 pm – US PMI (April, flash): manufacturing forecast to rise to 52 from 51.9, and services to rise to 51.8 from 51.7. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    3 pm – US new home sales (March): forecast to rise 2.7% month-over-month (MoM). Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Wednesday
    Australia consumer price index (CPI) (Q1): prices are expected to rise 3.4% Year over Year (YoY) and 0.7% Quarter on Quarter (QoQ), from 4.1% and 0.6%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

    9 am – German IFO index (April): forecast to rise to 88.9 from 87.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

    1.30 pm – US durable goods orders (March): forecast to fall 1.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 19 April): stockpiles rose by 2.7 million in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Thursday
    1.30 pm – US GDP (Q1, advance reading), initial jobless claims (w/e 20 April): growth expected to be 2.8% in Q1, from 3.4%, claims to rise to 213K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    3 pm – US pending home sales (March): forecast to rise 0.9% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    5 am – BoJ rate decision: rates expected to remain at 0%, after the previous hike out of negative territory. Markets to watch: Nikkei 225, USDJPY
    1.30 pm – US PCE price index (March): forecast to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.6% YoY, from 0.3% and 2.5%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    22 April
    Tuesday
    23 April
    Wednesday
    24 April
    Thursday
    25 April
    Friday
    26 April
    Full-year earnings
      Whitbread   Sainsbury's   Half/ Quarterly earnings
    Verizon Associated British Foods,
    General Motors,
    McDonald's,
    Alphabet,
    Tesla Lloyds,
    IBM,
    AT&T,
    Meta,
    Boeing,
    Ford AstraZeneca,
    Barclays,
    Deutsche Bank,
    BNP Paribas,
    Intel Corp,
    Caterpillar,
    American Airlines,
    Microsoft NatWest,
    Exxon,
    Chevron, Trading update*
        Reckitt Benckiser Unilever,
    Persimmon,
    WPP,
    LSE,
    Travis Perkins Pearson  
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: St James's Place, Rightmove, Legal & General, ConvaTec, Spirax-Sarco Engineering
    FTSE 250: ME Group, Morgan Sindall, Derwent London, Shaftesbury, Murray Int’l, Greggs, Bakkavor, Tyman, Morgan Advanced Materials, Bodycote
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    22 April Tuesday
    23 April Wednesday
    24 April Thursday
    25 April Friday
    26 April Monday
    29 April FTSE 100     4.40       Australia 200             Wall Street             US 500 0.11 0.03 0.10 0.09 0.33 0.19 Nasdaq   0.30 0.68 0.22     Netherlands 25   2.49   0.67 0.7   EU Stocks 50 5.6 3.6   10.4 3.5 5.4 China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip     1.39   0.28 0.06 Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40             Italy 40             Japan 225            
  4. KoketsoIG
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
    Week commencing 15 April
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    Earnings season is now underway, and key names this week include Goldman Sachs and Netflix, the latter likely to command all the attention thanks to its huge price gains in recent months. UK economic data appears throughout the week, including employment reports and monthly inflation data, the latter particularly important as markets debate when the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates. China’s Q1 Gross domestic product (GDP) and the monthly German ZEW index will also be worth watching.
    Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    1.30 pm – US retail sales (March), NY Empire state manufacturing index (April): sales expected to rise 0.3% MoM, and Empire state index to rebound to -10. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Tuesday
    3 am – China GDP (Q1): growth rate expected to slow to 5% from 5.2%. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
    7 am – UK employment data (February): the unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 4% from 3.9%, and average earnings to rise 5.8% in February from 5.6% in January. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    10 am – German ZEW economic sentiment index (April): index expected to rise to 32 from 31.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

    1.30 pm – Canada CPI (March): prices forecast to rise 2.7% YoY and 0.3% MoM, from 2.8% and 0.3% respectively. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    Wednesday
    7 am – UK CPI (March): prices forecast to rise 3.1% YoY from 3.4%, and 0.5% from 0.6% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 April): stockpiles rose by 5.8 million barrels in the preceding year. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Thursday
    2.30 am – Australia employment data (March): The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4% from 3.7%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 April): claims to rise to 212K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3 pm – US existing home sales (March): sales expected to fall 2.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    12.30 am – Japan CPI (March): prices forecast to rise 2.8% YoY, in line with last month. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
    7 am – UK retail sales (March): sales forecast to rise 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    15 April
    Tuesday
    16 April
    Wednesday
    17 April
    Thursday
    18 April
    Friday
    19 April
    Full-year earnings
        Saga     Half/ Quarterly earnings
    Goldman Sachs LVMH,
    Bank of America,
    Johnson & Johnson,
    Morgan Stanley,
    UnitedHealth ASML,
    Alcoa Netflix Procter & Gamble Trading update*
    PageGroup Moneysupermarket.com Entain,
    Hays Rentokil,
    easyJet,
    Dunelm,
    Foxtons    
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: Antofagasta, BAE Systems, Unite, Croda, London Stock Exchange, Weir, Fresnillo
    FTSE 250: Jupiter, Drax, Vesuvius, Serco, Rotork, Quilter, Rathbones, Kier, Bridgepoint, Dowlais, Merchants Trust
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    15 April Tuesday
    16 April Wednesday
    17 April Thursday
    18 April Friday
    19 April Monday
    22 April FTSE 100     4.92       Australia 200   0.3         Wall Street     6.6 8.5     US 500     0.31 0.24   0.18 Nasdaq     0.02       Netherlands 25       0.38     EU Stocks 50 2.3       10.1 5.6 China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip             Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40   203.6         Italy 40             Japan 225             * Please note these can change without notice
     
  5. KoketsoIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4th March 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  6. KoketsoIG
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
    Week commencing 8 April
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    This week marks the beginning of earnings season in the US, with the banks and Delta Airlines kicking off the frenzy of corporate reporting for the first quarter of 2024. Tesco's full-year results dominate the UK corporate landscape in an otherwise quiet week for company announcements on this side of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, US monthly customer price index (CPI) figures will be closely watched, as will the European Central Bank (ECB) decision on Thursday.
    Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    None

    Tuesday
    1.30 am – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (April): index to rise to 84.8. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

    6 am – Japan consumer confidence (March): index forecast to rise to 40 from 39.1. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

    Wednesday
    1.30 pm – US CPI (March): price growth is expected to be 3.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM, from 3.2% and 0.4% respectively. Core CPI growth to be 0.3% MoM from 0.4%, and 3.7% YoY from 3.8%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    2.45 pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to be held at 5%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 5 April): stockpiles rose by 3.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    7 pm – FOMC minutes: these will look at the latest Fed decision, at which the committee continued to expect three rate cuts in 2024. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Thursday
    2.30 am – China CPI (March): prices to rise 1.2% YoY and 0.5% MoM, from 0.7% and 1% respectively. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

    1.15 pm – ECB rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.5% once more. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

    1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 6 April), PPI (March): claims to fall to 218K from 221K. PPI to rise 0.4% MoM, down from 0.6%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    Friday
    4 am – China trade data (March): exports to grow 6% in March and imports to rise 2%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

    7 am – UK GDP (February): monthly rate to slow to 0.3% and three-month average to rebound to 0.1% from -0.1%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

    3 pm – US Michigan consumer confidence survey (April, preliminary): index forecast to rise to 79.5 from 79.4. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Company announcements

    ,
     
    Monday
    8 April
    Tuesday
    9 April
    Wednesday
    10 April
    Thursday
    11 April
    Friday
    12 April
    Full-year earnings
        Tesco     Half/ Quarterly earnings
        Delta,
    LVMH   JP Morgan,
    Citigroup,
    Wells Fargo Trading update*
      Imperial Brands        
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: Barratt Developments, Smurfit Kappa,Lloyds, Reckitt Benckiser, Howden Joinery, Aviva, F&C Inv.. Trust, Phoenix
    FTSE 250: Man, Hunting, ITV, Harbour Energy, Grafton Group, Just Group, TP ICAP, Savills, Softcat, Int'l Public P'Ships, Supermarket Income REIT
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    8 April Tuesday
    9 April Wednesday
    10 April Thursday
    11 April Friday
    12 April Monday
    15 April FTSE 100     12.88       Australia 200 0.1   0.1   0.3   Wall Street 4.4           US 500 0.75 0.10 0.13 0.57 0.07   Nasdaq 0.33   0.07       Netherlands 25       0.58     EU Stocks 50     3.8 0.8   2.3 China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip             Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40   244.7         Italy 40             Japan 225              
  7. KoketsoIG
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
    Week commencing 1 April
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    Another shortened week lies ahead, though the quiet start gives way to a busier period with the release of the monthly US payrolls data, as well as the ISM purchasing managers indices (PMIs) in the US and the Caixin PMIs in China. Eurozone inflation will also be worth watching as the European Central Bank (ECB) edges closer to rate cuts in the summer. Corporate data is almost non-existent, but US earnings season is just around the corner, starting on 14 April.
     
     
    Economic reports
      Weekly View Monday
    Easter Monday – UK, French & German markets closed

    2.45 am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (March): index to rise to 51 from 50.9. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

    3pm – US ISM manufacturing index (March): index expected to rise to 48.3 from 47.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Tuesday
    1.30 am – Australia RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

    1 pm – German inflation (March, preliminary): YoY rate to slow to 2.4% from 2.5% and MoM to rise to 0.7% from 0.4%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

    Wednesday
    2.45 am – China Caixin services PMI (March): index to fall to 52 from 52.5. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

    10 am – eurozone inflation (March): prices are expected to rise 2.6% YoY and 0.9% MoM, from 2.6% and 0.6% respectively. Core CPI to rise 2.8% YoY from 3.1%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

    1.15 pm – US ADP employment report (March): payrolls are expected to rise by 125K, from 140K last month. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    3 pm – US ISM services PMI (March): index forecast to fall to 52.4 from 52.6. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 29 March): stockpiles rose by 3.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Thursday
    1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 30 March) Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    1.30 pm – US non-farm payrolls (March): payrolls to rise by 200K from 275K last month, and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.9%. Average hourly earnings to rise 0.3% MoM and 4.1% YoY, from 0.1% MoM and 4.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    1.30 pm – Canada employment report (March): unemployment rate to hold at 5.8%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    3 pm – Canada Ivey PMI (March): index to fall to 51.6 from 53.9. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    1 April
    Tuesday
    2 April
    Wednesday
    3 April
    Thursday
    4 April
    Friday
    5 April
    Full-year earnings
        Hilton Food     Half/ Quarterly earnings
          Conagra Brands   Trading update*
        Topps Tiles      
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: InterContinental Hotels, Mondi, IMI, Rentokil, Smiths Group
    FTSE 250: Hammerson, RIT Capital, Domino's Pizza, Empiric Student Property, OSB, Breedon, Direct Line, Games Workshop
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    1 April Tuesday
    2 April Wednesday
    3 April Thursday
    4 April Friday
    5 April Monday
    8 April FTSE 100     2.23       Australia 200 0.2   0.1     0.1 Wall Street   2.6 12.1     4.4 US 500 0.15 0.25 0.64 0.02 0.08 0.75 Nasdaq 1.62 2.14 0.11     0.33 Netherlands 25             EU Stocks 50         3.2   China H-Shares   4.4         Singapore Blue Chip       0.95     Hong Kong HS50   8.2   1.6     South Africa 40   125.8         Italy 40             Japan 225              
  8. KoketsoIG
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
    Week commencing 18 March
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    This week is a vital one for markets, with several major central bank decisions on the calendar. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) could finally bring the era of negative interest rates to an end on Tuesday, though the decision is finely-poised. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed), while likely to keep policy unchanged, may have to adapt its tone after two hotter inflation readings over the past week. The Bank of England (BoE) is not expected to change rates, but in its case falling inflationary pressures could see policymakers start to shift their rhetoric in a more dovish direction. Corporate news is much lighter, but FedEx, Micron and Nike in the US are major earnings releases, while in the UK retailer Next and insurer Prudential publish full-year earnings.
     

    Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    2 am – China industrial production, retail sales (Jan-Feb). Markets to watch: CNH crosses

    Tuesday
    3 am – Bank of Japan rate decision: there is around a 50% chance that the BoJ will raise rates from their current negative level, for the first time since the beginning of 2016. Markets to watch: Japan indices, JPY crosses
    3.30 am – Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision: rates expected to be held at 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    10 am – German ZEW index (March): index expected to rise to 21 from 19.9. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    12.30 pm – Canada inflation rate (February): CPI forecast to fall to 2.7% from 2.9% YoY, and rise to 0.2% from 0% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    Wednesday
    7 am – UK inflation rate (February): UK CPI is expected to hold at 4% YoY and jump to 0.7% MoM from 4% and -0.6% respectively. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    2.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 15 March): stockpiles fell by 1.5 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    6 pm – US FOMC rate decision: rates are expected to be held at 5.5%, but the potential path for rates will dominate the discussion and press conference. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    Thursday
    12.30 am – Australia employment data (February): The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    12.30 am – Japan PMI (March, flash): manufacturing PMI to rise to 48.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
    8.30 am – Germany PMI (March, flash): manufacturing PMI to rise to 47.4 from 42.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    9.30 am – UK PMI (March, flash): services PMI to fall to 53.7 from 53.8, while manufacturing PMI to fall to 47.1 from 47.5. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses
    12 pm – Bank of England rate decision: rates expected to remain at 5.25%, with 1 out of 9 members expected to vote for a rate cut. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    12.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 16 March): claims expected to rise to 216K from 209K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    1.45 pm – US PMI (March, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 52 from 52.2, and services to fall to 52.2 from 52.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    11.30 pm – Japan CPI (February): prices are expected to rise 2.9% YoY from 2.2%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

    Friday
    7 am – UK retail sales (February): sales to rise 0.3% MoM from 3.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    8 am – German IFO business climate index (March): index to rise to 86 from 85.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    18 March
    Tuesday
    19 March
    Wednesday
    20 March
    Thursday
    21 March
    Friday
    22 March
    Full-year earnings
      Wickes Prudential,
    Computacenter Next,
    Direct Line   Half/ Quarterly earnings
      Close Bros. Micron FedEx,
    Nike JD Wetherspoon Trading update*
    Associated British Foods Sthree        
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: British American Tobacco, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, Schroders, Pearson, Beazley
    FTSE 250: Chemring, Crest Nicholson
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    18 March Tuesday
    19 March Wednesday
    20 March Thursday
    21 March Friday
    22 March Monday
    25 March FTSE 100     6.78       Australia 200 0.3 0.1 0.5   0.1 1.0 Wall Street             US 500   0.68 0.12 0.27 0.01   Nasdaq   3.63         Netherlands 25     0.59       EU Stocks 50   2.5   4.6     China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip             Hong Kong HS50   0.4   1.0     South Africa 40 75         172 Italy 40             Japan 225             * Please note these can change without notice
     
  9. KoketsoIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25th March 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 


    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week
     

    Week commencing 26 February
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    The second estimate of US quarter four (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the Federal Reserve's (Fed’s) preferred PCE inflation gauge and Germany’s consumer price inflation (CPI) are the main economic events to watch for this week. US new home sales, durable goods orders, personal income, consumer confidence, also in Germany, Eurozone economic sentiment, Japanese retail sales, industrial production and unemployment data as well as Chinese manufacturing and services purchasing managers index (PMI) will likely play second fiddle to the main data releases. Earnings season is beginning to wind down, now that Nvidia, the last of the Magnificent 7, released its stellar earnings last week. Stock index rallies to record highs by several European and US bourses may thus lose some of their upside momentum. In the UK Bunzl, Ocado and Taylor Wimpey are to report their full-year figures, in Europe Munich Re, Just Eat Takeaway and IAG will do so as well and in the US Hewlett Packard Q1 and Best Buy Q4 earnings, some of which may provide additional volatility.
      Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    3 pm – US new home sales (January): sales expected to rise 0.9% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    11.30 pm – Japan CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.6%. Core CPI is expected to slow to 2.1% YoY from 2.3%. Markets to watch: Yen crosses

    Tuesday
    7 am – Germany GfK consumer confidence (March): index expected to rise to -27 from -29.7. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30 pm – US durable goods orders (January): orders expected to fall by 4% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3 pm – US consumer confidence (February): expected to rise to 115 from 114.8. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Wednesday
    1.30 pm – US GDP (Q4, 2nd estimate): QoQ rate expected to be 3.3%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 23 February): previous week 3.514m. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    5 pm – FOMC member Bostic's speech. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Thursday
    8.55 am – German employment data (February): unemployment rate to rise to 5.9% from 5.8%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1 pm – German inflation (February, preliminary): prices are expected to rise 2.8% YoY and 0.7% MoM, from 2.9% and 0.2%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30 pm – Canada GQP (Q4): growth to rise to -0.2% QoQ from -0.3%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
    1.30 pm – US PCE prices (January), initial jobless claims (w/e 24 February): prices expected to rise 2.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM. Initial jobless claims are expected to rise to 210,000. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    2.45 pm – US Chicago PMI (February): expected to rise to 49 from 46. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3 pm – US pending home sales (January): sales to rise by 2.0% versus 1.3% YoY. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    1.30 am – China PMI (February): manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 49.3 from 49.2 and non-manufacturing PMI to 50.8 from 50.7. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
    1.45 am – China Caixin manufacturing PMI (February): expected to rise from 50.8 to 50.9, Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
    10 am – eurozone inflation (February, flash): inflation to slide from 2.8% to 2.7%. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    3 pm – US ISM manufacturing PMI (February): expected to rise to 49.5 from 49.1. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    26 February
    Tuesday
    27 February
    Wednesday
    28 February
    Thursday
    29 February
    Friday
    1 March
    Full-year earnings
    Bunzl Smith & Nephew,
    abrdn,
    Bouygues,
    Munich Re,
    Puma,
    Edenred St James's Place,
    Aston Martin Lagonda,
    Reckitt Benckiser,
    Taylor Wimpey,
    Holcim,
    Just Eat Takeaway Ocado,
    Haleon,
    Schroders,
    LSE Group,
    St Gobain,
    IAG,
    Ab-InBev Pearson Half/ Quarterly earnings
    Domino's Pizza
    ASM,
    eBay,
    American Electric Power,
    Virgin Galactic,
    Urban Outfitters Snowflake,
    Salesforce Hewlett Packard,
    Best Buy,
    Macy's   Trading update*
               
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: Diageo, Barclays
    FTSE 250: Diversified Energy Company, Ashmore Group, Scottish American Investment Company, Environmental Assets Group, Plus500, Alliance Trust, HICL Infrastructure, Hargreaves Lansdown, Londonmetric Property, Hays, Genus
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    26 February Tuesday
    27 February Wednesday
    28 February Thursday
    29 February Friday
    1 March Monday
    4 March FTSE 100     7.26       Australia 200 0.8 13.0 3.3 2.8 0.2 4.3 Wall Street   22.7 18.1 2.4     US 500 0.08 0.59 1.09 0.29 0.15 0.13 Nasdaq 0.07 1.51 4.29 0.51 1.35 0.13 Netherlands 25             EU Stocks 50             China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip             Hong Kong HS50           6.7 South Africa 40             Italy 40             Japan 225   20.73         * Please note these can change without notice
     
  11. KoketsoIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 26th Feb 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

    Week commencing 19 February
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    The Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes, flash purchasing managers index (PMI) data and the German Ifo index are the main economic events to watch for this week. Earnings season is beginning to wind down, but Nvidia, the last of the Magnificent 7 to report, releases earnings this week, which will be closely watched now that the company has overtaken Amazon in market value. UK banks, miners and aerospace firm Rolls-Royce all release full-year figures this week as well.
      Economic reports
    Weekly View
    Monday
    Presidents’ Day – US stock markets closed

    Tuesday
    12.30 am – RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    1.30 pm – Canada CPI (January): expected to rise 3.2% YoY and 0.3% MoM. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    Wednesday
    1 pm – FOMC member Bostic's speech. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    2 pm – MPC member Dhingra's speech. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    7 pm – FOMC minutes: these will cover the latest decision to hold rates unchanged, and will look at the discussion around the future path of rates in 2024. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    Thursday
    12.30 am – Japan PMI (February, flash): manufacturing to rise to 48.4 and services to rise to 53.2. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
    8.30 am – German PMI (February, flash): manufacturing to rise to 46.6 from 45.5. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    9 am – eurozone PMI (February, flash): manufacturing to rise to 46.8 and services to rise to 49. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    9.30 am – UK PMI (February, flash): manufacturing forecast to rise to 47.3 and services to rise to 54.5. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 17 February): claims expected to rise to 215,000. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3 pm – FOMC member Jefferson's speech. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    2.45pm – US PMI (February, flash): manufacturing PMI to rise to 50.8 and services to fall to 52.3. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    4 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 16 February). Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    10 pm – FOMC member Cook's speech. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    9 am – German IFO index (February): The business climate index is expected to fall to 84.7 from 85.2. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    10am – Bundesbank president Nagel speech. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
      Company announcements
     
     
    Monday
    19 February
    Tuesday
    20 February
    Wednesday
    21 February
    Thursday
    22 February
    Friday
    23 February
    Full-year earnings
    Moneysupermarket.com Barclays,
    InterContinental Hotels,
    Antofagasta Glencore,
    HSBC,
    Rio Tinto,
    BAE Systems Lloyds Banking Group,
    Rolls Royce,
    Hikma Pharma,
    WPP,
    Anglo American,
    Nestle,
    Danone,
    Abraxas Petroleum Corp Standard Chartered,
    Allianz Half/ Quarterly earnings
     
    Walmart,
    Coinbase,
    Home Depot NVIDIA,
    eBay Inc,
    Rivian Nikola IAG,
    Berkshire Hathaway Trading update*
               
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: Endeavour Mining, GSK, Land Securities, Unilever, AstraZeneca
    FTSE 250: Virgin Money, easyJet, Redrow, Witan Inv Trust, Tritax Eurobox
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    19 February Tuesday
    20 February Wednesday
    21 February Thursday
    22 February Friday
    23 February Monday
    26 February FTSE 100     15.97       Australia 200 5.4 14.1 0.7 11.8 2.8 2.4 Wall Street     7.1       US 500 0.18 0.23 0.36 0.12 0.12 0.08 Nasdaq   1.48 2.18 0.11 0.63 0.07 Netherlands 25     0.99       EU Stocks 50         0.6   China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip             Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40             Italy 40             Japan 225            
  13. KoketsoIG

    Presidents Day Trading Hours 2024

    By KoketsoIG,


    Trading Hour Update
    There will be changes to certain markets on Monday 19 February 2024 and Tuesday, February 2024 as it's a US federal holiday.
    Please have a look at the table below to see how your trading could be impacted. All times listed below are in UK time (GMT).
     
    Monday 19 February 2024
    US and Canadian equity markets are closed.
    US index futures close early at 6 pm. We'll offer out-of-hours prices on Wall Street, the US 500, US Tech 100 and the US Russell 2000 until futures reopen at 11 pm.
    The Volatility Index (VIX) closes early at 4.30 pm and reopens at 11 pm.
    Metals, including Gold and Silver, and US energies close early at 7.30 pm and reopen at 11 pm.
    US bonds and interest rates close at 6 pm and reopen at 11 pm.
    US soft commodities are closed.
    London Sugar closes early at 5 pm.
    Lumber and Livestock are closed.
    Tuesday 20 February 2024
    Livestock trades open at 2.30 pm and Lumber opens at 3 pm.
    US Grain futures open at 1 am.
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
    These hours are accurate to the best of our knowledge, but it’s possible that they could change.
     
    More resources:
    CME Futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading-hours.html#trading-holiday-hours&foi=F&tradeDate=2024-02-19&pageNumber=1 US Equities: https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars & https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stock-market-holiday-schedule Canadian equities: https://www.tsx.com/trading/calendars-and-trading-hours/calendar ICE Futures: Oil, Utilities & Agricultural: https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/Trading_Schedule.pdf Fixed income, Equity & Indices: https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures/Trading_Schedule_Migrated_Liffe_Contracts.pdf ICE Futures US https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/ICE_Futures_US_2024_PresidentsDayHoliday_20231218.pdf LBMA Gold Fix: https://www.ice.com/publicdocs/Gold_Holiday_Calendar_2024.pdf CBOE VIX: https://www.cboe.com/about/hours/us-futures/
  14. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

    Week commencing 12 February
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    US and UK inflation are the main economic data points to watch this week, along with the monthly German ZEW index. Growth is also in focus with the first look at quarter 4 (Q4) gross domestic product (GDP) for the UK and Japan. Key earnings to watch include Cisco in the US and then Natwest in the UK, the latter kicking off the reporting period for UK banks.
      Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    6 pm – FOMC Kashkari speech (non-voter). Markets to watch: USD crosses
    11.30 pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (February): index to fall to 80.4. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

    Tuesday
    12.30 am – Australia NAB business confidence (January): previous reading -1. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    7 am – UK unemployment data (December): unemployment rate to rise to 4% from 3.9%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    10 am – German ZEW index (February): index expected to rise to 15.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30 pm – US CPI (January): prices forecast to rise 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) and 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), from 3.9% and 0.3% in December. The core consumer price index (CPI) is expected to be 0.2% and 3.4%, from 0.3% and 3.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    Wednesday
    7 am – UK CPI (January): prices are expected to grow 3.9% YoY and 0.4% MoM, from 4% and 0.4%. Core CPI rose by 5.1% YoY in December. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 9 February): stockpiles fell by 3.1 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    11.50 pm – Japan GDP (Q4, preliminary): growth is expected to be 0.4% quarter over quarter (QoQ) and 1.6% YoY. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

    Thursday
    12.30 am – Australia employment data (January): rate to rise to 4% from 3.9%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    7 am – UK GDP (Q4, preliminary): QoQ growth is expected to be flat, from -0.1% in quarter 3 (Q3), and YoY is forecast to be 0.2%, from, 0.3%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30 pm – US retail sales (January) initial jobless claims (w/e 10 February), Empire State manufacturing index (February): sales expected to rise 0.4%, claims forecast to rise to 220K from 218K, while Empire manufacturing index rises to -19. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    7 am – UK retail sales (January): sales forecast to rise 1.2% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30 pm – US Producer Price Index (PPI) (January): forecast to be 0.1% MoM from -0.1%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3 pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (February, preliminary): expected to rise to 79.5 from 79. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
    Monday
    12 February
    Tuesday
    13 February
    Wednesday
    14 February
    Thursday
    15 February
    Friday
    16 February
    Full-year earnings
            Natwest Half/ Quarterly earnings
      TUI,
    Lyft,
    Coca-Cola Dunelm,
    Cisco Airbus,
    Commerzbank,
    Coinbase   Trading update*
        Severn Trent,
    Domino's Pizza
    United Utilities      
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: Shell, BP, Imperial Brands, Pershing Square
    FTSE 250: ICG Enterprise, Greencoat UK Wind, Impax, UK Commercial Property Rights
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    12 February Tuesday
    13 February Wednesday
    14 February Thursday
    15 February Friday
    16 February Monday
    19 February FTSE 100     12.92       Australia 200     1.4   0.9 3.6 Wall Street   4.9 35.5 9.5     US 500 0.62 0.93 1.04 0.94   0.18 Nasdaq   3.26 1.88 0.49     Netherlands 25     1.32       EU Stocks 50   0.2         China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip   0.28         Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40             Italy 40         2.4   Japan 225             * Please note these can change without notice
     
  15. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

     
    Week commencing 5 February
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    We are now into the second half of earnings season, with many of the big names behind us. McDonald’s, Ford and Disney are released this week, while in the UK BP, Unilever and AstraZeneca are major reports to watch. Economic data is mostly second-tier, though a rate decision in Australia and Chinese consumer price index (CPI) will be potential drivers of activity.
      Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    1.45 am – China Caixin services PMI (January): index expected to hold at 52.9. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
    3 pm – US ISM services PMI (January): index to rise to 52 from 50.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    Tuesday
    3.30 am – Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision: rates forecast to hold at 4.35%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    9.30 am – UK construction PMI (January): activity forecast to improve but remain in contraction territory, with the index rising to 48.2 from 46.8. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    3 pm – Canada Ivey PMI (January): index forecast to fall to 55.8 from 56.3. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    Wednesday
    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 2 February): inventories rose by 1.2 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Thursday
    1.30 am – China CPI (January): prices are expected to rise 0.1% MoM and 0.2% YoY. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
    1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 3 February): claims expected to rise to 227K from 224K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

    Friday
    1.30 pm – Canada employment data (January): unemployment rate to rise to 6% from 5.8%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
      Company announcements
     
    Monday
    5 February
    Tuesday
    6 February
    Wednesday
    7 February
    Thursday
    8 February
    Friday
    9 February
    Full-year earnings
          AstraZeneca,
    Unilever,
    British American Tobacco Hermes Half/ Quarterly earnings
    McDonald’s,
    Palantir BP,
    UBS,
    Spotify,
    Snap,
    Ford,
    Chipotle,
    Hertz Barratt Developments,
    PZ Cussons,
    ARM,
    TotalEnergies,
    Walt Disney,
    Uber,
    PayPal Siemens,
    Societe Generale,
    Credit Agricole,
    Under Armor PepsiCo Trading update*
    Vodafone     SSE Bellway  
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: None
    FTSE 250: Bluefield solar, Octopus Renewables, GCP Infrastructure Investments, LXi REIT, Target Healthcare
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    5 February Tuesday
    6 February Wednesday
    7 February Thursday
    8 February Friday
    9 February Monday
    12 February FTSE 100             Australia 200   0.1       1.9 Wall Street 0.8   14.4 1.6     US 500 0.14 0.07 0.63 0.50 0.03 0.78 Nasdaq 0.71   1.62 2.20 0.43   Netherlands 25             EU Stocks 50       5.0     China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip     0.29 0.07   0.28 Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40             Italy 40             Japan 225             * Please note these can change without notice
     
  16. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

    Week commencing 22 January
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    While the economic week begins quietly, it rapidly fills up with events, including rate decisions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Flash price manager index (PMIs) for January are also released, and the first look at US gross domestic product (GDP) for Quarter-four (Q4) is bound to be a key event. Earnings season returns with a vengeance too, as Netflix and Tesla mark the start of reporting season for the big tech stocks that were so vital to the market rally in 2023, while the season begins to broaden out beyond the bank stocks that dominated the past week.
      Economic reports
    Weekly View
    Monday
    None

    Tuesday
    12.30 am – Australia NAB business confidence index (December): index to rise to -7. Markets to watch: AUD crosses
    3 am – Bank of Japan rate decision: rates expected to be held at -0.1%. Markets to watch: Nikkei 225, Yen crosses

    Wednesday
    12.30 am – Japan PMI (January, flash): manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) to weaken to 47.5. Markets to watch: JPY crosses
    8.30 am – German PMI (January, flash): manufacturing PMI to rise to 44.6 from 43.3. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    9 am – eurozone PMI (January, flash): manufacturing PMI to rise to 45 from 44.4. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    9.30 am – UK PMI (January, flash): manufacturing is expected to rise to 47 from 46.2, while services to fall to 53.1 from 53.4. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses
    2.45 pm – US PMI (January, flash): manufacturing PMI to rise to 48.3 and services to rise to 51.8. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3 pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to hold at 5%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 19 January): stockpiles fell by 2.5 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Thursday
    9 am – German IFO business climate index (January): index expected to rise to 87.5 from 86.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.15 pm – ECB rate decision: rates are expected to be held at 4.5%, but the commentary around the decision and the outlook will likely drive volatility in eurozone assets. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses
    1.30 pm – US GDP (Q4, advance), initial jobless claims (w/e 20 January), durable goods orders (December): GDP expected to rise 1.8% Quarter-on-Quarter (QoQ). Durable goods orders to rise 0.5% Month-on-Month (MoM). Initial jobless claims to rise to 192K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
    3 pm – US new home sales (December): sales fell 12% in November. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Friday
    1.30 pm – US PCE price index (December): prices expected to be flat MoM, core PCE to rise 0.2%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3 pm – US pending home sales (December): sales expected to rise 0.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
    Monday
    22 January
    Tuesday
    23 January
    Wednesday
    24 January
    Thursday
    25 January
    Friday
    26 January
    Full-year earnings
      Crest Nicholson   LVMH   Half/ Quarterly earnings
    United Airline Netflix,
    Verizon,
    Halliburton,
    Johnson & Johnson,
    General Electric,
    Procter & Gamble ASML,
    IBM,
    Tesla,
    AT&T Intel,
    Visa,
    American Airlines American Express Trading update*
      Assoc. British Foods,
    AO World easyJet,
    Tullow Oil,
    JD Wetherspoon Halfords,
    Britvic,
    Fevertree,
    MITIE WH Smith,
    Superdry  
        Dividends
    FTSE 100:
    FTSE 250: Foresight Solar, Pennon, Victrex, Ferrexpo
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    22 January Tuesday
    23 January Wednesday
    24 January Thursday
    25 January Friday
    26 January Monday
    29 January FTSE 100         2.7   Australia 200             Wall Street             US 500 0.11 0.04 0.28   0.09 0.38 Nasdaq           1.58 Netherlands 25             EU Stocks 50         0.2   China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip         0.28   Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40   219.7         Italy 40             Japan 225           2.0 * Please note these can change without notice
     
  17. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

    Week commencing 15 January
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    US banks continue to report this week, though other major names are absent as earnings season quietens down almost as soon as it began last week. US markets are closed on Monday, providing a quieter start to the week, but UK companies will be issuing more quarter-four (Q4) and Christmas trading statements. Meanwhile, UK data is in focus, thanks to the trio of employment, inflation and retail sales.
      Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    Martin Luther King Day – US markets closed
    11.30 pm – Australia Westpac consumer confidence (January): index expected to rise to 82.5. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

    Tuesday
    7 am – UK employment data: November unemployment rate expected to rise to 4.3%. Average earnings to rise 7.3% for the three months to end of November. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    10 am – German ZEW index (January): index forecast to rise to 15. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
    1.30 pm – US Empire mfg index (January): expected to rise to -9. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    1.30 pm – Canada CPI (December): YoY rate to slow to 2.8% from 3.1%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

    Wednesday
    2 am – China GDP (Q4): YoY growth forecast to rise to 5.3% from 4.9%. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
    7 am – UK CPI (December): prices are expected to rise 3.9% YoY and 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30 pm – US retail sales (December): sales forecast to rise 0.3% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Thursday
    12.30 am – Australia employment data (December): unemployment rate expected to hold at 3.9%. Markets to watch: ADU crosses
    1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 13 January): claims forecast to rise to 205K. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    4 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 12 January): stockpiles rose by 1.34 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
    11.30 pm – Japan CPI (December): prices are expected to rise 2.6% YoY from 2.8%, and core CPI to slow to 2.3% YoY from 2.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

    Friday
    7 am – UK retail sales (December): sales rose 1.3% MoM in December. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    3 pm – US Michigan consumer confidence (January, preliminary), existing home sales (December): confidence index expected to rise to 69, home sales to rise 0.3%. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Company announcements
     
    Monday
    15 January
    Tuesday
    16 January
    Wednesday
    17 January
    Thursday
    18 January
    Friday
    19 January
    Full-year earnings
              Half/ Quarterly earnings
      Goldman Sachs Alcoa   Schlumberger Trading update*
    PageGroup Wise,
    Ocado,
    Experian,
    Card Factory,
    THG, Just Eat Takeaway.com,
    Smiths Group,
    Galliford Try, Hays,
    Currys,
    Dunelm,
    Kier,
    Boohoo,
    Sage,
    Flutter Entertainment, Burberry,
    Deliveroo  
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: Compass, Diploma, B&M European Value Retail
    FTSE 250: Future, Games Workshop
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    15 January Tuesday
    16 January Wednesday
    17 January Thursday
    18 January Friday
    19 January Monday
    22 January FTSE 100     2.87       Australia 200             Wall Street     6.2 8.6     US 500             Nasdaq             Netherlands 25             EU Stocks 50         2.4   China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip           0.08 Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40             Italy 40         129.4   Japan 225             * Please note these can change without notice
     
  18. KoketsoIG
    Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 8th Jan 2024 and will be published weekly on Mondays.

    *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency
  19. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

    Week commencing 8 January
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    US inflation data and the beginning of US earnings season are the main events this week, and will likely drive resurgent volatility in indices, the dollar and commodity prices. After a slower start to the year, we also begin to see the release of more Christmas trading statements from UK retailers, after Next’s strong trading period in its recent update.
    Economic reports
    Weekly View Monday
    7 am – German trade balance (November): exports fell by 0.2% in October. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

    Tuesday
    1.30 pm – US trade balance (November) Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Wednesday
    3.30 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 5 January): stockpiles fell by 5.5 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Thursday
    1.30 pm – US CPI (December), initial jobless claims (w/e 6 January): inflation forecast to be 0.2% MoM and 3% YoY, from 0.1% and 3.1% in November. Core CPI is expected to be 0.2% and 4%, from 0.3% and 4% respectively. Claims rose to 202K in the preceding week. Markets to watch: US indices USD crosses

    Friday
    1.30 am – China CPI (December): prices are expected to fall 0.2% MoM and 0.7% YoY, from -0.5% MoM and YoY in November. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses
    7 am – UK GDP (November): growth is expected to be 0.1% MoM from -0.3% in October. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
    1.30 pm – US producer price inflation (PPI) (December): producer prices are expected to rise 0.2% MoM and core prices to rise 0.2% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
        Company announcements
     
    Monday
    8 January
    Tuesday
    9 January
    Wednesday
    10 January
    Thursday
    11 January
    Friday
    12 January
    Full-year earnings
      Shoe Zone       Half/ Quarterly earnings
            Citigroup,
    Bank of America,
    Wells Fargo,
    JPMorgan,
    UnitedHealth Trading update*
      AO World,
    B&M European Value,
    Hornby Greggs,
    Sainsbury’s Topps Tiles Tesco,
    Whitbread,
    ASOS,
    Dechra,
    Marks & Spencer,
    Savills,
    Reach    
        Dividends
    FTSE 100: SSE, Sage, Ashtead
    FTSE 250: WH Smith, Foresight Group, AJ Bell, Balanced Commercial Property Trust
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
    Index adjustments
     
    Monday
    8 January Tuesday
    9 January Wednesday
    10 January Thursday
    11 January Friday
    12 January Monday
    15 January FTSE 100     1.61       Australia 200 0.2           Wall Street 4.4           US 500 0.67 0.08 0.17 0.41   0.07 Nasdaq 0.34     0.02     Netherlands 25             EU Stocks 50 1.6       0.5   China H-Shares             Singapore Blue Chip             Hong Kong HS50             South Africa 40             Italy 40             Japan 225             * Please note these can change without notice
     
  20. KoketsoIG
    2023 has been a year of surprises. As we head into 2024, what are some of the key themes to keep our eyes on?
    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Commodities Federal Reserve Inflation Market trend United States    Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 28 December 2023 09:56 2023 wrap-up
    2023 has been a year of surprises, with a strong bull market in Wall Street predicted by little at the start of the year. The unfolding of the US banking turmoil in March and the Israel-Hamas conflict in October have also thrown some volatility into the equation, but despite the rocky journey, major US indices managed to bounce back from last year’s losses to deliver their respective all-time highs.
    This follows as the macro environment took a turn for the better, with earlier calls for recessions drowned out by soft-landing hopes while promising inflation progress and the dovish shift in Federal Reserve (Fed)’s rhetoric led market participants to look forward to a series of rate cuts in 2024.
    Year-to-date performance among asset classes revealed a clear lean towards risk-taking, with stellar returns in the cryptocurrencies space and semiconductors. The S&P 500 is up more than 25% for the year, alongside gold prices (+13.3%), with the weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields serving as bullish catalysts to ride on.
    On the other side of the performance table, Chinese equities remain the laggard. Market participants continue to struggle to find the conviction that the worst is over for China’s economy, amid the country’s on-and-off recovery momentum since reopening. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is down 17% for the year - a stark divergence from other global indices in double-digit gains. Oil prices also took a dip in the red (-5.6%), with its 2022 stellar gains unwinding on a softer demand outlook and easing supply-demand deficit.
     
    Source: Refinitiv. Data as of 27 December 2023.  
    As we head into 2024, here are three key themes to keep an eye on.
    Dovish Fed narrative has markets pricing for six rate cuts in 2024
    Attempts from Fed officials to downplay rate-cut prospects after its recent policy meeting have failed to sway market expectations of having six rate cuts in 2024, which is significantly more dovish than what US policymakers have guided (three cuts in the latest dot plot). Further pushback from Fed officials could be on the cards in 2024, but until the trend in inflation reverses to revive a high-for-longer rate outlook, market participants may continue to find comfort in prevailing inflation progress.
    What to watch: US dollar
    The US dollar has been hammered since November this year, with a more dovish-than-expected Fed translating to a five-month low in the index. While the broader trend remains downward bias, one may argue that the US dollar is heading towards a support zone in the near term, which may call for some defending on oversold technical conditions. Any attempt to rebound may also support the formation of a bullish divergence on its daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). The 100.50 level may be immediate support to hold, followed by the 99.15 level next.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    What to watch: Gold
    Gold prices have been resilient this year, despite the US interest rate registering its highest level in more than 22 years. Strong central banks' demand and safe-haven flows from geopolitical tensions have been supportive of prices, and a different course of rate outlook from this year could set the stage for catch-up buying, given that broad positioning from money managers and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is still largely leaning towards neutral.
    A renewed move back above the US$2,074 level of resistance could suggest buyers in broad control. Prices trading above its Ichimoku cloud zone on the daily chart since October this year may leave the broader upward trend intact, with prices potentially looking to retest the US$2,146 level next. On the downside, support may be presented at the lower channel trendline and the Ichimoku cloud zone, along with its 100-day moving average (MA).
     
    Source: IG charts  
    Can China’s economy regain its footing?
    While there are some pockets of strength presented in China’s economic conditions, overall recovery has been largely uneven, as property sector woes proved to be a longer-than-expected drag while consumer sentiment and spending remain reserved. Softer global demand and prevailing geopolitical tensions just add to the list of economic obstacles, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting that its gross domestic product (GDP) growth could slow to 4.6% in 2024 from the current 5%-5.4% range.
    While policy easing has in some ways worked its way into the economy, it seems clear that sustained policy support into 2024 is much needed to keep the growth momentum going.
    What to watch: Hang Seng Index (HSI)
    It has been a struggle for the HSI this year, with a touch of its one-year low while unwinding more than 80% of its November 2022 reopening gains. A broad descending wedge pattern remains in place, with the formation of lower highs and lower lows reflecting much shunning from market participants. Any upside may potentially find resistance at the upper wedge trendline around the 18,200 level. On the weekly chart, greater conviction of a trend reversal to the upside may have to come from a move back above the key psychological 20,000 level, where the weekly Ichimoku cloud resistance resides. The index has failed to cross the Ichimoku cloud zone since July 2021, leaving it as crucial resistance to overcome.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    Policy normalisation from the Bank of Japan (BoJ)
    The BoJ has been taking intermittent steps towards policy normalisation this year, loosening the shackles on its 10-year yield target and guiding for more policy flexibility with a softening of its wordings/language. Further steps to exit from its ultra-accommodative policies are likely to continue in 2024, as policymakers remain on the lookout for any sustained increases in inflation and wages. While communications of a policy-pivot timeline from BoJ officials remain muddled, broad market expectations are priced for Japan to scrap its negative rates in the second quarter of 2024 (after Japan’s wage negotiation season).
    What to watch: USD/JPY
    The trend for the USD/JPY may have reversed to the downside this year, with the pair breaking below its Ichimoku cloud support and its key 100-day MA for the first time since April 2023. A breakdown of a channel pattern in place since the start of the year also adds to the bearish trend, with the pair seemingly setting its sights on retesting the 139.54 level next. Thus far, its daily relative strength index (RSI) struggled to cross back above the key 50 level, which leaves sellers in greater control for now.
     
    Source: IG charts
     
     
  21. KoketsoIG

    IG 2024 Outlook

    By KoketsoIG,


    Analyst piece
    Where to next for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500?
    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Recession Stock market index United States S&P 500 FTSE 100  
     Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 January 2024 18:48 FTSE 100 – Chris Beauchamp
    Despite the challenges faced by the FTSE 100 last year, there are signs that the outlook may be brightening. While it has not been the worst performer compared to other indices, such as those in China, it has once again lagged behind the US markets, which have seen a surge in tech stocks.
    Source: Google Finance One of the main reasons for the FTSE 100's struggles has been the impact of the rising dollar, weaker commodity prices, and the ongoing fall in oil prices. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the 2019 election has left UK markets unloved by investors.

    However, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Recession fears have abated, and there is a growing belief that the US and global economies will experience a 'soft landing'. Inflation is expected to cool, and growth is projected to remain in positive territory. Central banks may also implement rate cuts to support growth.
    Source: Statista/IMF From a valuation perspective, the FTSE 100 appears to be trading at an attractive level. With a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times, it is much cheaper than the Dax, Dow, and Nikkei, which are trading at 18 times, 22 times, and 26 times earnings, respectively.

    Despite the challenges faced by the index in 2023 and the reduction in earnings forecasts for the year, there is still optimism regarding pre-tax profits from the FTSE 100. The expectation is for a 10% increase, surpassing the current inflation rate.

    The financial landscape has seen a significant boost in dividends and share buybacks this year. With £47 billion in buybacks announced and £73 billion in dividends paid out so far, companies are demonstrating their commitment to returning value to shareholders.

    This positive trend is expected to continue, with total dividends projected to reach an all-time high in 2024. If conditions remain favourable, there is even the possibility of surpassing this record and setting a new one in 2025.

    These strong dividends and share buybacks not only benefit shareholders but also indicate the financial health and confidence of the companies involved. It reflects their ability to generate profits and distribute them to investors, which can be seen as a positive sign for the overall market.

    Investors should keep a close eye on these developments as they can provide valuable insights into the performance and prospects of individual companies, as well as the broader economic landscape.

    Although there is some uncertainty, particularly in the mining sector, several other sectors show potential for ending the year on a positive note. Additionally, broker forecasts indicate the possibility of further growth in earnings and dividends in 2024.

    While challenges remain, there is hope that the FTSE 100 can regain its footing and deliver better performance in the future. Investors may find value in the current market conditions and consider the FTSE 100 as a potential opportunity for investment.

    FTSE 100 – technical analysis
    The FTSE 100 has managed to claw its way higher from the lows of 2022, but it has not been a smooth journey.

    Since it hit its record high in early 2023, the index has been capped by lower highs and trendline resistance. A weekly close above the post-February trendline, i.e. above 7660, would mark a positive development, while gains above 7740, the high from September, would add to the bullish long-term view.

    In the medium-term, the highs of February at 8000 then come into view. Early weakness in the new year might see the lows of 2023 around 7250 tested.
    Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 – Axel Rudolph
    Taking stock of 2023

    Despite warnings of a recession in the US by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and several major investment banks at the beginning of the year, the US economy and the country’s stock market(s) have done tremendously well.
    US inflation halved from 6.4% in January to 3.2% in October, even if core inflation proved to be stickier at 4.0%, while seasonally-adjusted unemployment rose slightly from 3.4% to 3.9% and gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a respectable 2.1% year-on-year.
    At the same time, the US 500 has risen by close to 25% in 2023, a positive performance which none of the major investment banks had forecast.
    2024 outlook

    The S&P 500 is expected to continue its recent advance and might still do well at the beginning of the first quarter (Q1) of next year but then a possible slowdown in the US economy may lead to a significant reversal in the trend.
    Since earlier in the year the tables have turned with the Fed no longer expecting a recession due to the robustness of the US economy.
    The danger, as is often the case when data keeps on coming in better-than-expected and earnings - such as those seen in the Q3 - are pointing to a better outlook for US companies than many had feared, is that investors become complacent.
    A potential sign of this complacency is the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) which dipped to its lowest level since January 2020 amid seven straight weeks of gains in US equity indices. In that time the Wall Street and S&P 500 rallied by around 15%, the US Tech 100 by just under and the US Russell 2000 (small cap index) by over 20%. The VIX can remain at extremely low levels for several weeks, though, before equity markets top out.
    The remarkable recovery in risk appetite, driven by a falling dollar, declining US Treasury yields to between five and seven-month lows and Fed rate cut expectations being brought forward to March of next year, is likely to have legs, at least into the first few weeks of 2024. This scenario remains the most probable even if a short-term sell-off at the beginning of next year were to be seen.
    Bullish factors are that over 55% of S&P 500 stocks now trade above their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Sentiment Index has been trading above 75 this past month and seasonality usually leads to end-of-year gains.
    Stocks trading above their 200-day SMA are considered to be long-term bullish. Now that over half the S&P 500’s stocks are trading above their 200-day SMAs the bull market looks to be more solid than it was in the first half of this year.
    When the NAAIM Sentiment Index crosses 75 for the first time in 21 weeks, the three- and six-month forward returns have all been bullish, some in double digits, between mid-2006 and now. The only exception was the three months following such as signal in February 2012 but even then a positive 3.32% performance was seen after six months.
    NAAIM Sentiment Index Chart and data table
    Source: NAAIM Exposure Index / Nautilus Investment Research Then there is the ‘Santa Claus Rally’: according to StockTradersAlmanac.com, since 1950, the S&P 500 is up 79.45% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.57%.
    There is an important caveat to the “Santa Claus Rally” though, coined by its 1972 inventor Yale Hirsch’s phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
    Risks for 2024

    The same risks the Fed and others feared at the beginning of the year are still bubbling under the surface.
    These are:
    - rapidly rising short-end interest rates
    - a spike in inflation
    - inversions of the yield curve
    - and oil price shocks

    Even if these occurrences haven’t as yet led to a recession in the US in 2023, they may well do so in 2024.
    A Deutsche Bank team led by Jim Reid, head of global economics and thematic research, in November, highlighted these four key macroeconomic triggers that have caused recessions in the past and analysed 34 US recessions dating back to 1854, looking for patterns in economic history.
    For each trigger, the Deutsche Bank team calculated a historical “hit ratio”—or the percentage of times when these events occurred that led to a recession.
    Even though they found that no single macroeconomic trigger can accurately predict a recession, all four together – as is the case at present - greatly increase the odds of a US recession rearing its head.
    The rapid rise in interest rates since Q1 of 2022 from 0% to 0.25% to the current Fed funds at 5.25% to 5.50% - by more than 5% - is bound to weigh on economic growth by raising the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers but may take time to work its way through the economy.
    According to Deutsche Bank’s study, since 1854, when US short-term interest rates have risen by 2.5 percentage points over 24 months, there has been a recession within three years around 69% of the time.
    Also since 1854, a three percentage point rise in inflation over 24 months has caused a recession within three years 77% of the time.
    The fact that US inflation soared to a four-decade high of 9.1% in June of 2022, even if it has since retreated to a much milder 3.2%, points to a probable recession since historically the US economy hasn’t managed inflationary spikes very well.
    An inverted yield curve - when short-term bonds end up yielding more than long-term bonds - has caused a US recession in 74%, but since the 1953 recession, in nearly 80% of cases, the Deutsche Bank study shows.
    US Treasuries have been inverted since July 2022 but may normalise in 2024. Historically when the yield curve un-inverts, as investors take more risk when loaning out their money on longer-term time frames and thus want to be compensated for this by a higher yield, a recession tends to follow.
    US 10-year minus 2-year yield curve slope and US recessions chart
    Source: LSEG Datastream / Axel Rudolph Last but not least an oil price shock has led to a US recession 45% of the time, according to the Deutsche Bank research team.
    Oil - US Crude prices have risen by nearly 40% from June to September, to close to $95 per barrel, leading many economists to fear inflation could prove to be more sticky than the Fed might have imagined. This fear might be mitigated by the sharp over 20% drop in the oil price from its late-September peak to current levels.
    The Deutsche Bank study aside, there is another factor that might need considering and it is that since the 1950s nearly every time the first US rate cut was made after a hiking cycle, a US recession followed in the coming year(s). Since the first Fed fund rate cut is currently expected to be seen in March of next year, a recession might be on the table for the latter half of 2024.
    S&P 500 technical analysis forecast

    Since the strong November gains occurred after the S&P 500 broke out of a ‘bull flag’ technical chart pattern at 4,356, it is to be expected that during the first half of 2024, the index is not only likely to exceed its January 2022 record high at 4,818.62 but may also reach the psychological 5,000 zone before a possible significant correction or bear market unfolds.
    The reason is that the near 800-point ‘flagpole’ in that ‘bull flag’ pattern - the March-to-July advance – is projected from the pattern breakout point at 4,356, giving technical analysts a potential upside target of 4,536 plus 800 = 5,336.
    S&P 500 Weekly Candlestick Chart
    Source: Tradingview                  
  22. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 1st Jan 2024 - 8th Jan 2024

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 1st Jan 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  23. KoketsoIG

    The Week Ahead On The Markets

    By KoketsoIG,


    Market News
    The Week Ahead
    Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

    Week commencing 25 December
    Chris Beauchamp's insight
    Unsurprisingly, little is happening this week. US data continues to come through, though it is unlikely to move markets.
    Economic reports
    Weekly View
    Monday
    Christmas Day – UK, US and European markets closed
    11.30 pm – Japan unemployment (November): expected to hold at 2.5%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

    Tuesday
    Boxing Day – UK markets closed
    1.30 pm – US Chicago Fed index (November): index forecast to rise to 0.2. Markets to watch: USD crosses

    Wednesday
    None

    Thursday
    1.30 pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 23 December). Markets to watch: USD crosses
    3 pm – US pending home sales (November): sales forecast to rise 0.6% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses
    4 pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 22 December): stockpiles rose by 2.9 million barrels in the preceding week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

    Friday
    2.45 pm – US Chicago PMI (December): index expected to fall to 50. Markets to watch: USD crosses
      Dividends
    FTSE 100: BT
    FTSE 250: Grainger
    Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.
  24. KoketsoIG
    Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 25th Dec 2023 and will be published weekly on Mondays.

    *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency.
  25. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 25th Dec 2023 - 1st Jan 2024

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25th Dec 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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