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KoketsoIG

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Blog Entries posted by KoketsoIG

  1. KoketsoIG
    2023 has been a year of surprises. As we head into 2024, what are some of the key themes to keep our eyes on?
    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Commodities Federal Reserve Inflation Market trend United States    Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Thursday 28 December 2023 09:56 2023 wrap-up
    2023 has been a year of surprises, with a strong bull market in Wall Street predicted by little at the start of the year. The unfolding of the US banking turmoil in March and the Israel-Hamas conflict in October have also thrown some volatility into the equation, but despite the rocky journey, major US indices managed to bounce back from last year’s losses to deliver their respective all-time highs.
    This follows as the macro environment took a turn for the better, with earlier calls for recessions drowned out by soft-landing hopes while promising inflation progress and the dovish shift in Federal Reserve (Fed)’s rhetoric led market participants to look forward to a series of rate cuts in 2024.
    Year-to-date performance among asset classes revealed a clear lean towards risk-taking, with stellar returns in the cryptocurrencies space and semiconductors. The S&P 500 is up more than 25% for the year, alongside gold prices (+13.3%), with the weaker US dollar and lower Treasury yields serving as bullish catalysts to ride on.
    On the other side of the performance table, Chinese equities remain the laggard. Market participants continue to struggle to find the conviction that the worst is over for China’s economy, amid the country’s on-and-off recovery momentum since reopening. The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is down 17% for the year - a stark divergence from other global indices in double-digit gains. Oil prices also took a dip in the red (-5.6%), with its 2022 stellar gains unwinding on a softer demand outlook and easing supply-demand deficit.
     
    Source: Refinitiv. Data as of 27 December 2023.  
    As we head into 2024, here are three key themes to keep an eye on.
    Dovish Fed narrative has markets pricing for six rate cuts in 2024
    Attempts from Fed officials to downplay rate-cut prospects after its recent policy meeting have failed to sway market expectations of having six rate cuts in 2024, which is significantly more dovish than what US policymakers have guided (three cuts in the latest dot plot). Further pushback from Fed officials could be on the cards in 2024, but until the trend in inflation reverses to revive a high-for-longer rate outlook, market participants may continue to find comfort in prevailing inflation progress.
    What to watch: US dollar
    The US dollar has been hammered since November this year, with a more dovish-than-expected Fed translating to a five-month low in the index. While the broader trend remains downward bias, one may argue that the US dollar is heading towards a support zone in the near term, which may call for some defending on oversold technical conditions. Any attempt to rebound may also support the formation of a bullish divergence on its daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD). The 100.50 level may be immediate support to hold, followed by the 99.15 level next.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    What to watch: Gold
    Gold prices have been resilient this year, despite the US interest rate registering its highest level in more than 22 years. Strong central banks' demand and safe-haven flows from geopolitical tensions have been supportive of prices, and a different course of rate outlook from this year could set the stage for catch-up buying, given that broad positioning from money managers and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is still largely leaning towards neutral.
    A renewed move back above the US$2,074 level of resistance could suggest buyers in broad control. Prices trading above its Ichimoku cloud zone on the daily chart since October this year may leave the broader upward trend intact, with prices potentially looking to retest the US$2,146 level next. On the downside, support may be presented at the lower channel trendline and the Ichimoku cloud zone, along with its 100-day moving average (MA).
     
    Source: IG charts  
    Can China’s economy regain its footing?
    While there are some pockets of strength presented in China’s economic conditions, overall recovery has been largely uneven, as property sector woes proved to be a longer-than-expected drag while consumer sentiment and spending remain reserved. Softer global demand and prevailing geopolitical tensions just add to the list of economic obstacles, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting that its gross domestic product (GDP) growth could slow to 4.6% in 2024 from the current 5%-5.4% range.
    While policy easing has in some ways worked its way into the economy, it seems clear that sustained policy support into 2024 is much needed to keep the growth momentum going.
    What to watch: Hang Seng Index (HSI)
    It has been a struggle for the HSI this year, with a touch of its one-year low while unwinding more than 80% of its November 2022 reopening gains. A broad descending wedge pattern remains in place, with the formation of lower highs and lower lows reflecting much shunning from market participants. Any upside may potentially find resistance at the upper wedge trendline around the 18,200 level. On the weekly chart, greater conviction of a trend reversal to the upside may have to come from a move back above the key psychological 20,000 level, where the weekly Ichimoku cloud resistance resides. The index has failed to cross the Ichimoku cloud zone since July 2021, leaving it as crucial resistance to overcome.
     
    Source: IG charts  
    Policy normalisation from the Bank of Japan (BoJ)
    The BoJ has been taking intermittent steps towards policy normalisation this year, loosening the shackles on its 10-year yield target and guiding for more policy flexibility with a softening of its wordings/language. Further steps to exit from its ultra-accommodative policies are likely to continue in 2024, as policymakers remain on the lookout for any sustained increases in inflation and wages. While communications of a policy-pivot timeline from BoJ officials remain muddled, broad market expectations are priced for Japan to scrap its negative rates in the second quarter of 2024 (after Japan’s wage negotiation season).
    What to watch: USD/JPY
    The trend for the USD/JPY may have reversed to the downside this year, with the pair breaking below its Ichimoku cloud support and its key 100-day MA for the first time since April 2023. A breakdown of a channel pattern in place since the start of the year also adds to the bearish trend, with the pair seemingly setting its sights on retesting the 139.54 level next. Thus far, its daily relative strength index (RSI) struggled to cross back above the key 50 level, which leaves sellers in greater control for now.
     
    Source: IG charts
     
     
  2. KoketsoIG
    An initial move higher in Wall Street last Friday eventually faded into the close, as market participants took the opportunity for further profit-taking into the seasonally weaker month of August.
    Source: Bloomberg   Forex Indices United States dollar AUD/USD Bank of Japan Japanese yen  
     Yeap Jun Rong | Market Strategist, Singapore | Publication date: Monday 07 August 2023 04:07 Market Recap
    An initial move higher in Wall Street last Friday eventually faded into the close (DJIA -0.43%; S&P 500 -0.53%; Nasdaq -0.36%), as market participants took the opportunity for further profit-taking into the seasonally weaker month of August.
    The focus was on the US July non-farm payroll report, which saw a miss in job addition for the second straight month (187,000 vs 200,000 consensus) but nevertheless, a downtick in unemployment rate (3.5% vs 3.6% consensus) and pull-ahead in wage growth (4.4% YoY vs 4.2% consensus) still denote signs of a tight labour market.
    The data may support soft landing hopes, but persistent wage pressures seem to suggest keeping an eye on inflation risks ahead, alongside recent upmove in commodities prices over the past month. For now, market participants will want to see more evidence of inflation back on the rise to price for additional tightening, which will leave all eyes on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data this week.
    US Treasury yields reacted to the downside, which put the US dollar on a slight breather (-0.3%) following its recent rally. For the Nasdaq 100, the index continues to hover below its 15,400 level, which serves as a neckline for a near-term double-top formation. An attempt to reclaim the level last Friday was met with some resistance, which still denotes near-term exhaustion to its recent rally. Further downside may place the 14,800 level on watch next, where the upper edge of its Ichimoku cloud support stands.
     
    Source: IG charts Asia Open
    Asian stocks look set for a weak open, with Nikkei -0.67%, ASX-0.03% and KOSPI -0.06% at the time of writing, largely displaying a cautious tone following last Friday’s reversal on Wall Street. The release of the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s summary of opinions this morning revealed wide consensus for its yield curve control policy to be more flexible, which saw some firming in the Japanese Yen upon its release.
    Nevertheless, the bias for the USD/JPY still seems to lean on the upside for now, having defended the lower trendline of its ascending channel pattern lately with a bullish pin bar formation. The 138.90 level could be a crucial support confluence to hold for the pair, where its 100-day moving average (MA) coincides with the lower channel trendline and the lower edge of its Ichimoku cloud support. For now, its relative strength index (RSI) continues to trend above the 50 level, which puts buyers in control.
    The 145.00 will remain an immediate resistance to overcome ahead, having seen a sell-off in early-July this year from renewed speculations around currency intervention. Heading towards the 145.00-145.80 level, where previous intervention efforts were delivered back in September 2022, could potentially trigger some jawboning from authorities once more, which may reignite some resistance for the pair.
     
    Source: IG charts On the watchlist: AUD/USD moves below key support
    A rate hold from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) last week, alongside a more subdued risk environment and mixed economic data out of China, has prompted the AUD/USD to fall below its horizontal support at the 0.659 level. This seems to point towards a breakdown of a near-term double-top formation, with a retest of the 0.659 level last Friday met with a bearish rejection.
    Its moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) has crossed back below the zero mark, with its RSI sliding further below the 50 level, which seems to put sellers in control for now. Further downside may leave its year-to-date low at the 0.645 level on watch next, while on the other hand buyers may have to reclaim the 0.659 level to support a move back towards the 0.678 level.
     
    Source: IG charts Friday: DJIA -0.43%; S&P 500 -0.53%; Nasdaq -0.36%, DAX +0.37%, FTSE +0.47%
     
  3. KoketsoIG
    Changes to trading hours over the US Thanksgiving period
    There will be some changes to our normal opening hours over the US Thanksgiving period. Check the table below to find out how these could impact your trading. Note that all times listed below are UK time.
    Thanksgiving
     
    Thursday 23 November
    US equity markets are closed.
    US index futures close early at 6 pm. We’ll offer out-of-hours prices on Wall Street, US 500, US Tech 100 and US Russell 2000 until index futures reopen at 11 pm.
    The Volatility Index (VIX) closes early at 4.30 pm and reopens at 11 pm.
    Brent Crude, London Gas Oil and ICE WTI will close early at 6.30 pm.
    US rates close at 6 pm.
    Metals and US energies, including NYMEX Crude and Spot Gold, close at 7.30 pm.
    US soft commodities are closed.
    London Sugar closes early at 5 pm.
    Lumber and Livestock are closed.
    Black Friday
     
    Friday 24 November
    US equity markets close early at 6 pm, and there’ll be no post-market trading.
    US index futures close early at 6.15 pm. We’ll offer out-of-hours prices on Wall Street, US 500, US Tech 100 and US Russell 2000 until 9 pm.
    The Volatility Index (VIX) closes early at 6.15 pm.
    Brent Crude, London Gas Oil and ICE WTI will close at 7 pm.
    US rates and the US Dollar Index close at 6.15 pm.
    Metals and US energies, including NYMEX Crude and Spot Gold, close at 6.45 pm.
    New York Cotton opens late at 1 pm. New York Cotton and Orange Juice closes early at 6.30 pm.
    Normal trading hours on New York Sugar, New York Coffee and New York Cocoa.
    US grain futures open late at 2.30 pm and close early at 6.05 pm.
    Lumber trades from 3 pm to 6.05 pm, and Livestock trades from 2.30 pm to 6.05 pm.
    The futures desk and all 24-hour indices close at 9 pm, and FX closes at 10 pm.

    These hours are accurate to the best of our knowledge, but it’s possible that they could change.
     
  4. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 07th Aug - 14th Aug 2023

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustment
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 07th Aug 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.

    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  5. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 11th Dec - 18th Dec 2023

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustment
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11th Dec 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 


    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 14th Aug 2023 - 21st Aug 2023

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 14th Aug 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  7. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 18th Dec - 25th Dec 2023

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustment
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18th Dec 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day.

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. KoketsoIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25th March 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 


    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 18th Sep 2023 - 25th Sep 2023

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18th Sep 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. KoketsoIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 1st April 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day.

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  11. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 1st Jan 2024 - 8th Jan 2024

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 1st Jan 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  12. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 25th Dec 2023 - 1st Jan 2024

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25th Dec 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  13. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 25th Sep - 2nd Oct 2023

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustments
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25th Sep 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 
    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 

    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. KoketsoIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 26th Feb 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  15. KoketsoIG

    Dividend Adjustments 4th Dec 2023 - 11th Dec 2023

    By KoketsoIG,


    Dividend Adjustment
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4th Dec 2023. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 


    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  16. KoketsoIG
    Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 4th March 2024. These are projected dividends and are likely to change. IG cannot be held responsible for any changes made.
    Dividends highlighted in red include a special dividend, therefore some or all of the amount will not be adjusted. The amount in brackets is the expected adjustment after special dividends are excluded (where shown on major indices). Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day. 

    If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video. 
    How do dividend adjustments work?  
    This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See the full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
     
  17. KoketsoIG
    UK retail sales fell more than expected in July, down 1.2% month-on-month, as the unusually wet weather saw shoppers stay inside.

    Forex Retail Inflation United Kingdom Bank of England Interest rate  
     Jeremy Naylor | Analyst, London | Publication date: Friday 18 August 2023 12:23 Economists had expected a drop, but by a far smaller -0.5%. As IGTV’s Jeremy Naylor explains, those very same economists will now be working out what this means for the Bank of England. Elevated inflation remains so there is still a need for another rate rise and with evidence of relatively robust growth in June there will be some of the Monetary Policy Committee that will want to keep the pressure on. However, these retail sales numbers show the consumer is finding the going tough.
    (Video Transcript)
    UK retail sales
    UK retail sales down in the month of July as a result of what was an unusually wet month mid-summer. July was appalling for many parts of the country. Discount shoppers pretty much across the board. Let's take a look at the figures as they broke this morning before the equity markets opened.
    We saw some movements in sterling as a result of this news. Retail sales down by 1.2% in July month-to-month expectations had been for a drop of just a half of 1%. The quantity of goods bought in the British shops fell 1.2% overall, but for the year you can see it's down 3.2%. If you look at the year overall, expectations there had been for a drop of 2.1%, so we took away your counted. These are weak numbers as illustrated by the recent news about the consumer under pressure.
    Candle chart
    Let me show you a 30-minute candle chart here for sterling against the USD. You can quite clearly see on the right-hand side here the drop that we saw in the wake of those figures taking us out to a daily chart. We've seen what has been overall a positive week so far. Here we are mid-morning on a Friday. I guess we'll end up holding on to much of the gains that we've seen overall in this week. The point to be made here is the fact that the economy is finding it going tough, and I think it's led by the consumer because of the rise in costs, most notably the rise in mortgage costs.
    Bank of England interest rates
    It's really beginning to dampen down a lot of the activity within this sector. We've already seen June gross domestic product (GDP) come out with a rise of half of 1%, which is far faster than had been expected. The big question for me is can that continue? The big thing here is what does all this mean for Bank of England interest rates? We've seen inflation hold up, retail price and consumer price inflation hold up, which would seem to indicate that the Bank of England needs to raise interest rates again by a quarter point come the next meeting, which is into September.
    But you get figures out like this, and clearly if they do raise rates they're going to have to keep one eye firmly on the consumer just to check to make sure it's not going to crumple what little activity there is out there. So clearly this number out today showing a weakness within the consumer around the British economy.
    For more videos from us here at IGTV, join us on Twitter at IG.com, Instagram and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
  18. KoketsoIG

    IG 2024 Outlook

    By KoketsoIG,


    Analyst piece
    Where to next for the FTSE 100 and S&P 500?
    Source: Bloomberg   Indices Recession Stock market index United States S&P 500 FTSE 100  
     Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 02 January 2024 18:48 FTSE 100 – Chris Beauchamp
    Despite the challenges faced by the FTSE 100 last year, there are signs that the outlook may be brightening. While it has not been the worst performer compared to other indices, such as those in China, it has once again lagged behind the US markets, which have seen a surge in tech stocks.
    Source: Google Finance One of the main reasons for the FTSE 100's struggles has been the impact of the rising dollar, weaker commodity prices, and the ongoing fall in oil prices. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and the 2019 election has left UK markets unloved by investors.

    However, there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Recession fears have abated, and there is a growing belief that the US and global economies will experience a 'soft landing'. Inflation is expected to cool, and growth is projected to remain in positive territory. Central banks may also implement rate cuts to support growth.
    Source: Statista/IMF From a valuation perspective, the FTSE 100 appears to be trading at an attractive level. With a price-to-earnings ratio of 11 times, it is much cheaper than the Dax, Dow, and Nikkei, which are trading at 18 times, 22 times, and 26 times earnings, respectively.

    Despite the challenges faced by the index in 2023 and the reduction in earnings forecasts for the year, there is still optimism regarding pre-tax profits from the FTSE 100. The expectation is for a 10% increase, surpassing the current inflation rate.

    The financial landscape has seen a significant boost in dividends and share buybacks this year. With £47 billion in buybacks announced and £73 billion in dividends paid out so far, companies are demonstrating their commitment to returning value to shareholders.

    This positive trend is expected to continue, with total dividends projected to reach an all-time high in 2024. If conditions remain favourable, there is even the possibility of surpassing this record and setting a new one in 2025.

    These strong dividends and share buybacks not only benefit shareholders but also indicate the financial health and confidence of the companies involved. It reflects their ability to generate profits and distribute them to investors, which can be seen as a positive sign for the overall market.

    Investors should keep a close eye on these developments as they can provide valuable insights into the performance and prospects of individual companies, as well as the broader economic landscape.

    Although there is some uncertainty, particularly in the mining sector, several other sectors show potential for ending the year on a positive note. Additionally, broker forecasts indicate the possibility of further growth in earnings and dividends in 2024.

    While challenges remain, there is hope that the FTSE 100 can regain its footing and deliver better performance in the future. Investors may find value in the current market conditions and consider the FTSE 100 as a potential opportunity for investment.

    FTSE 100 – technical analysis
    The FTSE 100 has managed to claw its way higher from the lows of 2022, but it has not been a smooth journey.

    Since it hit its record high in early 2023, the index has been capped by lower highs and trendline resistance. A weekly close above the post-February trendline, i.e. above 7660, would mark a positive development, while gains above 7740, the high from September, would add to the bullish long-term view.

    In the medium-term, the highs of February at 8000 then come into view. Early weakness in the new year might see the lows of 2023 around 7250 tested.
    Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 – Axel Rudolph
    Taking stock of 2023

    Despite warnings of a recession in the US by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and several major investment banks at the beginning of the year, the US economy and the country’s stock market(s) have done tremendously well.
    US inflation halved from 6.4% in January to 3.2% in October, even if core inflation proved to be stickier at 4.0%, while seasonally-adjusted unemployment rose slightly from 3.4% to 3.9% and gross domestic product (GDP) came in at a respectable 2.1% year-on-year.
    At the same time, the US 500 has risen by close to 25% in 2023, a positive performance which none of the major investment banks had forecast.
    2024 outlook

    The S&P 500 is expected to continue its recent advance and might still do well at the beginning of the first quarter (Q1) of next year but then a possible slowdown in the US economy may lead to a significant reversal in the trend.
    Since earlier in the year the tables have turned with the Fed no longer expecting a recession due to the robustness of the US economy.
    The danger, as is often the case when data keeps on coming in better-than-expected and earnings - such as those seen in the Q3 - are pointing to a better outlook for US companies than many had feared, is that investors become complacent.
    A potential sign of this complacency is the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) which dipped to its lowest level since January 2020 amid seven straight weeks of gains in US equity indices. In that time the Wall Street and S&P 500 rallied by around 15%, the US Tech 100 by just under and the US Russell 2000 (small cap index) by over 20%. The VIX can remain at extremely low levels for several weeks, though, before equity markets top out.
    The remarkable recovery in risk appetite, driven by a falling dollar, declining US Treasury yields to between five and seven-month lows and Fed rate cut expectations being brought forward to March of next year, is likely to have legs, at least into the first few weeks of 2024. This scenario remains the most probable even if a short-term sell-off at the beginning of next year were to be seen.
    Bullish factors are that over 55% of S&P 500 stocks now trade above their 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Sentiment Index has been trading above 75 this past month and seasonality usually leads to end-of-year gains.
    Stocks trading above their 200-day SMA are considered to be long-term bullish. Now that over half the S&P 500’s stocks are trading above their 200-day SMAs the bull market looks to be more solid than it was in the first half of this year.
    When the NAAIM Sentiment Index crosses 75 for the first time in 21 weeks, the three- and six-month forward returns have all been bullish, some in double digits, between mid-2006 and now. The only exception was the three months following such as signal in February 2012 but even then a positive 3.32% performance was seen after six months.
    NAAIM Sentiment Index Chart and data table
    Source: NAAIM Exposure Index / Nautilus Investment Research Then there is the ‘Santa Claus Rally’: according to StockTradersAlmanac.com, since 1950, the S&P 500 is up 79.45% of the time from the Tuesday before Thanksgiving to the 2nd trading day of the year with an average gain of 2.57%.
    There is an important caveat to the “Santa Claus Rally” though, coined by its 1972 inventor Yale Hirsch’s phrase: “If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall.”
    Risks for 2024

    The same risks the Fed and others feared at the beginning of the year are still bubbling under the surface.
    These are:
    - rapidly rising short-end interest rates
    - a spike in inflation
    - inversions of the yield curve
    - and oil price shocks

    Even if these occurrences haven’t as yet led to a recession in the US in 2023, they may well do so in 2024.
    A Deutsche Bank team led by Jim Reid, head of global economics and thematic research, in November, highlighted these four key macroeconomic triggers that have caused recessions in the past and analysed 34 US recessions dating back to 1854, looking for patterns in economic history.
    For each trigger, the Deutsche Bank team calculated a historical “hit ratio”—or the percentage of times when these events occurred that led to a recession.
    Even though they found that no single macroeconomic trigger can accurately predict a recession, all four together – as is the case at present - greatly increase the odds of a US recession rearing its head.
    The rapid rise in interest rates since Q1 of 2022 from 0% to 0.25% to the current Fed funds at 5.25% to 5.50% - by more than 5% - is bound to weigh on economic growth by raising the cost of borrowing for businesses and consumers but may take time to work its way through the economy.
    According to Deutsche Bank’s study, since 1854, when US short-term interest rates have risen by 2.5 percentage points over 24 months, there has been a recession within three years around 69% of the time.
    Also since 1854, a three percentage point rise in inflation over 24 months has caused a recession within three years 77% of the time.
    The fact that US inflation soared to a four-decade high of 9.1% in June of 2022, even if it has since retreated to a much milder 3.2%, points to a probable recession since historically the US economy hasn’t managed inflationary spikes very well.
    An inverted yield curve - when short-term bonds end up yielding more than long-term bonds - has caused a US recession in 74%, but since the 1953 recession, in nearly 80% of cases, the Deutsche Bank study shows.
    US Treasuries have been inverted since July 2022 but may normalise in 2024. Historically when the yield curve un-inverts, as investors take more risk when loaning out their money on longer-term time frames and thus want to be compensated for this by a higher yield, a recession tends to follow.
    US 10-year minus 2-year yield curve slope and US recessions chart
    Source: LSEG Datastream / Axel Rudolph Last but not least an oil price shock has led to a US recession 45% of the time, according to the Deutsche Bank research team.
    Oil - US Crude prices have risen by nearly 40% from June to September, to close to $95 per barrel, leading many economists to fear inflation could prove to be more sticky than the Fed might have imagined. This fear might be mitigated by the sharp over 20% drop in the oil price from its late-September peak to current levels.
    The Deutsche Bank study aside, there is another factor that might need considering and it is that since the 1950s nearly every time the first US rate cut was made after a hiking cycle, a US recession followed in the coming year(s). Since the first Fed fund rate cut is currently expected to be seen in March of next year, a recession might be on the table for the latter half of 2024.
    S&P 500 technical analysis forecast

    Since the strong November gains occurred after the S&P 500 broke out of a ‘bull flag’ technical chart pattern at 4,356, it is to be expected that during the first half of 2024, the index is not only likely to exceed its January 2022 record high at 4,818.62 but may also reach the psychological 5,000 zone before a possible significant correction or bear market unfolds.
    The reason is that the near 800-point ‘flagpole’ in that ‘bull flag’ pattern - the March-to-July advance – is projected from the pattern breakout point at 4,356, giving technical analysts a potential upside target of 4,536 plus 800 = 5,336.
    S&P 500 Weekly Candlestick Chart
    Source: Tradingview                  
  19. KoketsoIG
    Please be advised that our opening hours will be adjusted on 1 May 2024 for International Workers’ Day and 6 May 2024 for the UK Early May Bank Holiday. Where appropriate, the times listed are in BST.
    Date
    Market hours
    Wednesday 1 May

    International Workers' Day
    European, Hong Kong & South African equity markets will be closed.
    We’ll offer out-of-hours pricing on European, Hong Kong and South African indices until 10 pm BST.
    European rates and bonds will be closed.
     
    Monday 6 May

    Early May Bank Holiday
    UK equities, indices, rates and bonds and commodities will be closed, except for Brent Crude and London Gas Oil. We’ll offer out-of-hours pricing on the FTSE 100.
    Corrected: New York Cocoa, New York Coffee and New York Sugar will open later at 12.30pm BST.
    Disclaimer: The information provided above is accurate to the best of our knowledge. They are subjected to change and should only be used as guidance.
  20. KoketsoIG
    Outlook on the Nvidia share price ahead of its upcoming Q2 results.
    Source: Bloomberg   Shares Nvidia Price Share price Integrated circuit Graphics processing unit  
     Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 16 August 2023 17:00 When are Nvidia’s results expected?
    Nvidia is set to release its second quarter (Q2) 2023 results on 23 August 2023. The results are for the quarter ending July 2023.
    What is ‘The Street’s’ expectation for the Q2 results?
    ‘The Street’ expectations for the upcoming results are as follows:
    Revenue of $11.160 billion : +66.47% year-on-year (YoY)
    Earnings per Share (EPS) : $2.07: +405.88% (YoY)
    Nvidia – the great outperformer
    The ongoing global surge in the demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) chips continues to squeeze the supply of these with gulf states such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) entering the fray and buying up thousands of high-performing Nvidia chips.
    According to the Financial Times (FT), “Saudi Arabia has bought at least 3,000 of Nvidia’s H100 chips — a $40,000 processor described by Nvidia chief Jensen Huang as “the world’s first computer [chip] designed for generative AI.”
    The FT furthermore reported that “the UAE has also secured access to thousands of Nvidia chips and has already developed its own open-source large language model, known as Falcon.”
    According to the newspaper, Nvidia is expected to sell over half a million of its high-end H100 computer graphic processing units (GPUs), raking in tens of billions of dollars in 2023.
    The period from October 2022 onwards saw increased recession fears and worries about declines in earnings, neither of which has yet occurred on a wider scale.
    With so much negative news baked into the share price, there was plenty of room for Nvidia to outperform forecasts, which it duly has. The question for investors now is whether the company’s exceptional gains can be sustained and whether Nvidia can live up to the undeniable hype surrounding AI.
    Since AI chip shipments are forecast to increase next year and beyond, Nvidia with a significant market share of around 60%, is expected to benefit massively. With gaming revenue picking up as well, another valuable revenue stream for the company could be further exploited.
    But just as Nvidia benefited from the lack of good news last year, this year it continues to face an uphill struggle, even if its share price has so far more than doubled.
    Investors remain positive with regards to the company’s coming quarters, but at today’s multiples Nvidia trades at 228 times current earnings. That is an awful lot of good news in the share price, and it seems reasonable to expect that the gravy train will at some stage come to a halt. The question is when exactly this will be.
    How to trade Nvidia into the results
    Source: Refinitiv Refinitiv data shows a consensus analyst rating of between ‘buy’ for Nvidia – 15 strong buy, 29 buy, 6 hold and 1 sell - with the median of estimates suggesting a long-term price target of $500.00 for the share, roughly 13.8% higher than the current price (as of 16 August 2023).
    Source: IG IG sentiment data shows that 52% of clients with open positions on the share (as of 16 August 2023) expect the price to fall over the near term, while 48% of clients expect the price to rise. Trading activity over this week and month shows 54% and 51% of sells, respectively.
    Nvidia – technical view
    The Nvidia share price has risen by an impressive 207% year-to-date, but has given back around 16% from its mid-July $480.88 all-time high before recouping half of these losses in the course of this week.
    According to the 9-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI), the share price is currently bouncing off its oversold level of around 27%. The last time it did so was in January, at the beginning of this year’s impressive bull run.
    Nvidia Daily Chart
    Source: Tradingview It looks as if the Nvidia share price has ended its recent consolidation phase and has resumed its ascent towards the $500 region.
    Only a fall through and daily chart close below not only this year’s uptrend line at $383.90 but also the post Q1 earning’s results low at $366.35, would question our medium-term bullish outlook.
    In this scenario the Nvidia share price is expected to at least partially fill the May price gap. The area between the November 2021 high and the mid-May high at $346.47 to $318.28 would then represent a great long-term buying opportunity.
    Nvidia Weekly Chart
    Source: Tradingview
  21. KoketsoIG
    Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 11th Dec 2023 and will be published weekly on Mondays.

    *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency.
  22. KoketsoIG
    Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 13th Nov 2023 and will be published weekly on Mondays.

    *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency.
  23. KoketsoIG
    Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 18th Dec 2023 and will be published weekly on Mondays.

    *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency.
  24. KoketsoIG
    Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 18th Sep 2023 and will be published weekly on Mondays.

    *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency.
  25. KoketsoIG
    Please see the interest rates that are used when IG calculates the overnight funding rate (per annum) on shares and indices. This does not include the IG admin fee. The information provided is an indication as of 25th Dec 2023 and will be published weekly on Mondays.

    *** It's important to note that the rates are subject to daily changes and are based on the currency of the underlying market, not the contract currency.

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