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Everything posted by donaldprice

  1. EUR-USD TRADE OF THE WEEK. Last time the fed raised rates the price of a rate rise was priced in back on 16-12-15. Very similar thing now. The move was followed soon after by a depreciation in the DX and appreciation of the EURO. Now although everyone is talking about parity, because the price is already in, unless the fed states they will be anouncing several other rate rises in near future like last time based on good economic data etc, etc, then parity will be inevitable. However it is possible that we may see not long after a bit of a bounce in the EURO, but from a technical view this wil
  2. In conclusion for Gold, i do remain bearish until this FOMC is over and done with and therefore for commodity stocks like Fres and Rangold i see further pressure. 
  3. Because AUD USD is one of the most frequent pairs i trade, i thought i would discuss the possible analysis and therefore possible future trend. The likelyhood is the fed will raise rates specially the way current Dot plot from Bloomberg and therefore like last time back in December 16 2015 we had a small depreciation, followed by a major that lasted until 3rd week of January 2016 before heading sharply higher and we may have a similar situation occurring again. Of course this is just based on probability, nothing is certain. However one thing that is highly probable is what looks to o
  4. Non-Opec producers agree to cut oil output Global agreement designed to speed end of worst oil downturn in a generation. Opec has won the backing of countries outside the oil cartel to join supply cuts for the first time since 2001, overcoming the final major obstacle for a global agreement to curb output. Russia, the biggest oil exporter outside the group, alongside 10 other countries such as Mexico, Oman and Azerbaijan on Saturday agreed to reduce their production by 558,000 barrels a day. The agreement in Vienna is designed to speed the end of the worst oil downturn in a generat
  5. In terms of the Dow, looking at the mass Bull strength, clearly everyone is pilling their cash into stocks and why not, best take advantage of the tax Trump is promising. Which is why i can see this going beyond everyone expectations, but if you wish to be a brave soul and try take this trend on my the horns, notice the red ascending trend line which is now acting as resistance. Overall a stunning chart, feels like 87, 00 and 08 all over again lol.  
  6. Top Hedge Funds Predict How It All Will End (Zero hedge). Little entertaining article. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-09/top-hedge-funds-predict-how-it-all-will-end
  7. With such positive economic data coming from the US and of course Trumps promise of mass fiscal stimulus, the dollar can only go in one direction and that is up, because the Feds problem will no longer be deflation, but inflation instead which also adds to the problem of too strong of currency making exports less competitive, but will on the other hand make the Eurozone more competitive potentially with a very weak euro. 
  8. US interest rate rises set to expose China’s frailties The world’s most leveraged corporate sector adds to the country’s vulnerabilities. As Washington steels itself for the arrival of Donald Trump and a rise in interest rates, China could be forgiven for feeling itself besieged. The country is home to the world’s most leveraged corporate sector, a notoriously volatile property sector and a swath of banks that depend on borrowing on the money markets to fund loans. That makes the Chinese economy particularly sensitive to expectations of increasing interest rates, which together with t
  9. The Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates again (The economist). AMERICA’S central bank tries to be predictable. When in December 2015 it raised interest rates for the first time since 2006, nobody was much surprised. The central bank had telegraphed its intentions to a tee. Similarly, if the overwhelming consensus in financial markets is to be believed, on December 14th—almost exactly a year later—rates will rise again, to a target range of 0.5-0.75%. Donald Trump’s tweets and phone calls may upend trade, fiscal and foreign policy in a matter of minutes, but Janet Yellen, the F
  10.  Potentially you could see a sudden shock.sharp downtrend, but best scenario would be to see a lower high and the formation of a lower trend line resistance shaping up for a break out to the down side.
  11. Although Gold may just continue its bearish trend especially if the FED raises rates, but once Yellen is out of the way, i do not think that we will stay in this bear market, now of course this is a medium term analysis, however with a lot of uncertainty with TRUMP and EU elections, i do think gold will break out of this bear trend, therefore for i would watch for a rising trend and not making lower lows and a soldiers march penetrating the red descending trend line. Chart below. 
  12. I was very skeptical posting this as i am not much of a Head and Shoulders individual, but now that Bloomberg as highlighted it i thought best now keep this on the radar. Strange things have been happening across the indice and FX space and therefore lets see if this so called santa rally occurs or just water of a camels back. Check this chart below. If does have some conflict. On one hand we have just broken through a major descending trend line resistance but we also have this very obvious H&S pattern.  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/one-of-europe-s-hottest-stoc
  13. Citigroup faces fresh grilling in sterling ‘flash crash’ inquiry Bank’s Tokyo operations have been under scrutiny for exacerbating October collapse UK regulators have summoned Citigroup executives for fresh discussions over the bank’s role in October’s “flash crash” in sterling, seeking more information on the supervision and controls Citi had in place. The decision to recall Citigroup as part of the UK inquiry comes after the Financial Times reported the US bank’s Tokyo operations were under scrutiny for playing a central role in sending the pound to its lowest levels during the early
  14. I thinks its fair to say that everyone has a different view Casey and some always try to fade trades, which i can never see the point of it in my opinion. I think we are all guilty of it at some point, but unless you are doing this on a minute by minute basis and scalping your way through then best just look for a suitable area to enter. I myself do like scalping mostly for sharper entries depending on the day and can last from a few days to a few seconds.but looking at the chart below the slope of decent or gradient just shows profit taking. But in conclusion like algos, best trend follow if
  15. This is why i do like using 1-15 M time frames for entries, i think sometimes you have to really just focus on price action and put the fundamentals to one side, especially when using this trading instrument, its fine over the long term, but you cannot afford financially to think like that, market is irrational most of the time, I.E such as the DOW being at all time highs, the NIKKei went has high as 38000 yet everyone at the time thought it was normal, i am not suggesting the same for the Dow, but the Bull strength is extremely powerful and if Trump sticks to his word, then would not surprise
  16. Quite often i see far to many individuals having too many indicators, too many conflicting ideas etc. My analyses is completely different from how i execute. And all i use is price action and trend line breaks as simple as that. The simplest things in life are usually the most successful and that goes for whatever business or job you are in including trading.
  17. Morgan Stanley's potential scenarios & EUR/USD response for trading the ECB meeting. rom Global FX Strategy Morgan Stanley, via eFX We believe the reaction of the EUR over the ECB meeting will ultimately depend on the probability of tapering in the next 12m. In particular, EURUSD will depend on the short end rate differential between EMU and the US. Our economist's assumption is that the ECB will keep rates on hold at next week's meeting but add a 6m extension to its QE purchase programme. What is the market expecting? Rates - no cut is priced for the December meeting and only 3.5b
  18. It was, i remember, funny enough i remember a few traders around here, talking of buying the pound, even i was looking into it, and then as i was checking the asian session i saw this massive red-line across my screen and only Twitter was stating this fact, no news channel, until 20m later and that includes bloomberg and CNBC mentioned it, and BBC and SKY as usual 10 hours later lol.
  19. Citi says behaved appropriately in sterling 'flash crash' Citi (C.N) said on Wednesday that its trading operations functioned appropriately in a thin and illiquid market during October's "flash crash" in sterling, responding to a Financial Times report that a trader at the U.S. bank exacerbated the pound's fall. The FT cited unnamed bankers and officials as saying that Citi’s traders were not believed to have started the slide in the currency but that its Tokyo desk played a key role in sending the pound to its lowest levels in 31 years. "Sterling fell sharply following a news event just
  20. How ECB chiefs will be reading markets ahead of QE vote Key indicators will influence policymakers on whether to slow pace of asset purchases. he eurozone’s monetary policymakers will meet this week to unveil the third leg of their landmark quantitative easing programme and face a tough decision on whether to slow the pace of their asset purchases. So far, the European Central Bank has promised to buy €80bn of mostly government bonds each month until March 2017. Thursday’s meeting will come down to a choice between extending its bond-buying spree at the current pace for another six mon
  21. Speaking of Sterling interesting article below published by the FT this morning. Citi trader deepened October’s pound ‘flash crash’ Tokyo sell order flood helped drive sterling to 31-year low The UK investigation into October’s “flash crash” in sterling has focused heavily on the Japanese trading operations of Citigroup, which fired off repeated sell orders that exacerbated the pound’s fall, according to bankers and officials involved in the inquiry. Citi’s traders are not believed to have started the slide in the currency in thin Asia trading but its Tokyo desk played a key role in s
  22. Absolutely Casey, if the media, or places like CNBC or Bloomberg try to say to the novice investor that somehow stocks and share are a safer "bet" just look at the chinese crash back in 2015 and its mining shares, i myself had diversified my portfolio, but still had some terrible under performers, but that is how it goes but i understood my product. With leverage derivatives you must understand the product and use very good risk management, therefore not placing such huge positions with a small account and if you where using a long only position of a particular stock, dont put all your eggs in
  23. 20000 is what i see in my crystal ball along with Trump economics as its rocket booster. lol
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