Level_Trader
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Posts posted by Level_Trader
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The 200 day certainly was your signal to sell..no doubting that
The 50% fib level has been a good point of reference. the bulls have defended it since the end of March and will continue to try and do so which is why I've quoted it as a big level. Look back at my chart.. (or even your screenshot) and you'll see what I mean..using your chart the break below the 20 and the 50 day (as they both converge) suggests today was your signal to sell (or be stopped out if long)
Fake outs are part of the game (institutional play) which is why stops have to be in play and respected, to stop retail investors losing all their money.
Also my reference to technicals is price not indicators. Indicators should be used only as points of reference (at best) rather than for decision making. I would dump the Oscillator, it's not a helpful indicator.
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7 minutes ago, dmedin said:
How are YOU trading YOUR money?
Calmly and systematically. I trade what I see and let the market dedicate rather than second guessing. Having automated orders makes it a lot simpler and easier. Cable has worked beautifully with the technicals.
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We seem to be at a key support level on cable..50% fib level from the recent crash. If 12300 breaks expect selling to accelerate... 12100 the target
Cable is highly correlated with equities at the moment.. further downside in equities is likely to drag cable down with it
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I'd imagine the investment banks are also going to take a hit from this? ...they are providing hedges for oil producers..
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3 minutes ago, dmedin said:
Isn't that always the case? The price may go up - or it may go down.
No I think you misunderstood, in both scenarios I ultimately think the price is going down but it was whether we got a brief bounce first or we went straight down. We got a bounce in Feb around that 10820 level before ultimately crashing lower..
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Looks like its option 1) with the express lift straight towards gap fill..
@elle expecting your tag line any moment now...
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27 minutes ago, MarcoEsq said:
USD proving to be the safer haven in this crisis.
Yes indeed..being the most liquid and traded currency, the USD always prevails in times of major financial stress. The USD also rallied during the height of the financial crisis in '08
and of course it is the world reserve currency
There's a nice article below by IG on the top 10 most traded currencies if you want to do further reading..
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Two scenarios that could play out here...
(1) the price goes straight through the 10820 level which was retested today and head for gap fill ; or
(2) the price rebounds to retest the 110 area before coming back down to have another go at 10820 before breaking down to fill the gap.
Demand for USD is still high and is likely to remain that way capping any upside in EUR/USD for now..
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Gap filled!
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USD/JPY poking its head above the 110 level...I've got 11055-60 (rising trend line) followed by gap fill at 11110 as the upside targets
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On 06/02/2020 at 11:20, Mercury said:
which if broken should see a test of the 1 Oct 2019 low,
Relentless selling pressure on EUR/USD. The 1st October low from last year is fast approaching...
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11 hours ago, dmedin said:
How are you managing to trade something that's so unstable?
I'm currently on the sidelines on this one watching to see how this plays out. Agree that the price action has been unpredictable last few days however we're beginning to approach key levels on this one. I'm of the same view as Mercury above that there is a potential shorting opportunity coming up soon... but for now the price looks like it could move a little bit higher..
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110 is back in the frame..the speed at which the turnaround has occurred suggests there may be some more upside with 11050 and potentially 11100 the target if it busts through 110 and at the rate it has moved in the last 2 days.. that is a real possibility.
There is a gap from the weekend on the usd dollar index (around 97) suggesting the upside is likely to be short lived. This is very much a relief rally hence why equities are soaring and the yen is getting dumped however with it being headline driven (mainly by coronavirus reports), the market could whipsaw in both directions as it has done since Friday..
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Testing times for EUR/USD...we're at the 110 level again. If it breaks below 10920-35 will be the next stop
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EUR/USD Daily; head and shoulders in play?
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5 hours ago, Mercury said:
I have not been comfortable with the price action on EURUSD, well all USD pairs and DX itself, in terms of the case for a USD bear market. It started well but has recently broken down and now looks like a contender for another leg up (on DX, down on EURUSD). Long term I still see EURUSD rallying but short to medium term I see some bearishness with 2 scenarios:
- A bearish retrace in A-B-C form to retest the first weekly channel line (grey) that was broken back in early Dec 2019.
- Another leg down on this slow grinding bear phase to close a gap left from the previous breakout and rally (back in April 2017).
Short term the market ha just posted a hit and rebound back down off the Fib 50%. The wave B (brown) could manifest a bit higher yet and a breakout of the upper weekly line no.2 and the next horizontal resistance (higher high than 31 Dec 2019) would negate these scenarios and throw the long term rally back into sharp relief.
Net I am tactically Short and waiting to see how price action develops. I see this playing out across many USD pairs.
The gap you've highlighted is also something I am keeping an eye on. Although it could go as low as 1.05 which you've also marked out.
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What a difference a couple of weeks make!!
A false break out to the downside mainly driven by the deescalation of US - Iran tensions created a short squeeze in the Yen. Target would be gap fill at which point I expect the short sellers to return
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The selling on this pair has gained momentum. A break below the 200 daily moving average (108.15) is likely to see this get to around the 105 area in the medium term. Bullish consolidation from last week has firmly been negated
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Bullish consolidation in play ... before another move higher
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Yes the upside does look capped around the 111 area but the link to equities heading lower may well be the overriding factor. The major indices look overstretched and its likely we'll see a retrace sooner or later...potentially towards the end of this week?!
This period at the moment certainly feels like the calm before the storm...
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Thoughts on USD/JPY.. do we see 110?
We continue to hold key support around the 10840-50 area for now.. Does the phase 1 trade deal change the view and diminish the need to hold JPY?
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EUR/GBP could be set for a big week. Not expecting much until Thursday but a conservative win could see the pair reach 8316 at least with a break below potentially sending it as low as 80...
Should Labour win, the move up could be just as violent.. with resistance clustered between 8630-8650 with a break above that likely to push towards 8760
Definitely one to watch over the coming days..
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It is tethering on the edge, a weekly close below 10840-50 will open the floodgates.
US OIL
in Commodities
Posted
Reports that Trump has instructed the U.S. Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that harass it in the Gulf is what is allegedly driving the rally.
Low oil prices are here to stay IMO. Until OPEC + themselves go into lock down and turn off production we're unlikely to see a substantial recovery..