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Posts posted by RCtrader

  1. On 23/01/2020 at 00:40, Mercury said:

    To answer your question directly, FWIW, I don't think the rally is over yet.  I am tipping USD to rally further more generally so this USDCAD rally is consistent with that thesis.  There is a technical scenario for a turn at a potential trend line about now but oscillators and other indicators do not align for me and until all or most of my indicators align I wait.  At this point a retest of the down sloping trend line is more likely before another bear phase.  That said let's see what happens tomorrow at the current possible resistance point...  I would want to see a definitive turn down and close below to get interested in risking my capital here, the risk is high against a Short and the exposure level is also too high for me, I mean where do you put the stop?



    The pair made a 0.5 fibo retracement on the daily chat during its rally and so pushed the price in the other direction. The daily 55 EMA, however, offered support yesterday, making the price jump up and down. :)

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  2. On 22/01/2020 at 22:26, Caseynotes said:

    The question is do you think it's a good idea and why; usdcad shot up on the Cad rate decision and mon pol statement at 3pm and then gave it some more on the presser just after 4pm.

    The big boys clearly thought the new information meant it was time to readjust their positions, the question is has there been any new news since to make them change their mind or maybe are they going to think they over did the rally and regretting it now so take some off? Because they are the only 2 reasons to presume price might reverse back down.

    The other side is that price might well just consolidate here before continuing upward, especially given oil's continuing decline.

    Personally I wouldn't be betting the big boys have got it wrong, and if oil continues down tomorrow usdcad could well continue up.

    The point is you must come up with a valid reason as to why price might go up or down before taking a trade, currently the upside looks the stronger to me.    

    Thank you for your extensive and rather persuasive comment. I completely agree with you, I based my projection on USDCAD previous price action after a strong rally. It always used to make a strong retracement compared to other pairs. 

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