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Lyft Seeks $23bn IPO Valuation - EMEA Brief 19 March


Guest JoeIG

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  • Lyft, the ride-hailing company and one of Uber's main competitors, has begun its investor roadshow to pitch its Nasdaq listing as it looks to raise $2bn at a valuation of around $23bn. The company suggested a price range between $62 and $68 per share in its filing to the SEC on Monday, and will use the ticker symbol LYFT when it begins trading. This is a first indication of what ride sharing companies could be worth in public markets as we await Uber's IPO in the coming months. 
  • Theresa May's Brexit plans faces further hurdles as Speaker John Bercow ruled yesterday that she could not allow a new vote unless the agreement was submitted in a substantially different form to the one defeated twice before, in January and last week. 
  • Asian shares traded within tight ranges on Tuesday as investors await the Fed's policy meeting tomorrow, where expectations are a dovish tone from the central bank. The Nikkei dropped 0.3%, while Australian shares fell 0.1%. 
  • Major U.S. indices gained overnight on the back of speculation of a dovish Fed, with the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq each posting between 0.3 to 0.4%.
  • In the currency market, the pound slipped as slow as $1.3183 overnight as doubt forms over May's attempt to get MPs to back her Brexit deal. The dollar basket index traded at 96.475, close to a two-week low. 
  • Oil prices continue to rise over ongoing supply cuts and U.S. sanctions. WTI traded at $59.09 whilst Brent Crude was at $67.62 a barrel.
  • Palladium hits a record high of $1,593.77 an oz as the risk of a ban on exports by Russia, a major producer of the precious metal, adds to supply concerns. 

UK, US and Europe: A four-month high for the S&P 500 confirms the recovery in equities, while emerging markets are also doing well, as seen by the Brazilian index, which surpassed 100,000 for the first time. The UK government's plans to hold a third Meaningful Vote were scuppered by the Speaker, and it now looks like a vote will not be held this week. UK unemployment data and the German ZEW index are on the list for the day, while US markets and the dollar prepare for the Fed decision tomorrow.

South Africa: Global equity markets are are trading flat today as markets wait for central bank meetings later this week to guide them further. The US Federal Reserve will advise markets on Wednesday as to the future of monetary policy within the region. The expectation is that the bank may move to suggest just one rate hike later this year, a far less hawkish stance than was evident late last year. The dollar trade slightly softer and in turn we see commodity prices slightly higher and the rand slightly firmer as well. Tencent Holdings is down 0.5% in Asia, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Group is up 1.5% in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT)

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Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

9.30am – UK employment data: 150K jobs expected to have been created in December, while the January unemployment rate holds at 4%. Average hourly earnings to rise 3.5% in January. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

10am – German ZEW index (March): economic sentiment to fall to -14 from -13.4. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

11.50pm - BoJ meeting minutes.Markets to watch: JPY crosses

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Ocado said that a fire at its Andover location meant revenue in the first quarter fell 11.2%, and that the firm was still assessing 2019 guidance for 10-15% revenue growth.
  • Antofagasta said that full-year EBITDA fell 14.9% to $2.2 billion, while pre-tax profit fell 31.6% to $1.25 billion. Output guidance for 2019 was left unchanged at 750-790 thousand tonnes of copper.
  • Wood Group reported a 79% jump in revenue to $11.04 billion, while operating profit before exceptionals rose 68% to $357 million.

Baloise upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
Deutz upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Hikma upgraded to buy at Citi
Informa upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley

DWS downgraded to hold at DZ Bank
Leoni downgraded to underperform at MainFirst
Wacker Neuson downgraded to hold at Commerzbank
Marshalls downgraded to hold at Berenberg

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    • Natural Gas Commodity Elliottwave Technical Analysis
      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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