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Trade war votes; China GDP; momentum vs 'value' - DailyFX Key Themes

Two Important Trade War Votes and A Lurking Threat We have had a few weeks of relative respite from the 2019’s constant headline generator: trade wars. That hiatus is past, however, as we are expecting key updates on global trade relations over the next few weeks. In an unusual twist though, the developments may be positive ones. Dead ahead on Wednesday January 15th we are expecting two opportunities to improve the collective growth trajectory. The most prominent of these is the planned sig

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 6 Jan - 13 Jan

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 6 Jan 2020. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video   NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutra

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

 

US and Iran; trade war carry over; 'these markets don't make sense' - DailyFX Key Themes

The Return of Geopolitical Risk (the US and Iran Again) For almost the entirety of this past year, the dominant force of motivation among investors fit within a rotation of just three major themes: trade wars, growth concerns and monetary policy. Even when these matters weren’t under full steam, their influence and too many instances of sudden changes in the fundamental weather meant that they lack of bearing led to a similar absence of conviction in speculative performance – momentum if no

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

 

First week liquidity; top January events; top 2020 events - DailyFX Key Themes

Opening Week Liquidity – We are heading into the first trading days of the new year  though it is not the first full trading week of 2020. That is an important distinction for those keeping tabs. Consider the throttling in activity and speculative appetite through the past week. The holiday conditions of the Western World drained market depth to effectively hobble any effort at establishing or extending trends – though there were a few notable sparks of volatility that were the result of th

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

 

US-China trade war cliff avoidance; true risk on?; year-end market scenarios - DailyFX Key Themes

What Was and Was Not Announced in the US-China Phase 1 Trade Deal  Release the doves. The US and China announced last week that they finally were able to come to terms on the their long contentious Phase 1 trade deal. It seems to have conveniently slipped the market’s collective mind that the first stage of the promised reversal to the trade war was announced back on October 11. No tangible change had been put into place between then and now, but that didn’t slow the climb from risk benchma

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

 

Dividend Adjustments 9 Dec - 16 Dec

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 9 Dec 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adj

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

US-China deadline risk; Fed and ECB risks; UK election - DailyFX Key Themes

Anticipation and Scenarios Into the Sunday US Deadline for China Tariff Escalation  The active week of trade ahead will be pocked by a few very high profile events which will tap into key themes. Monetary policy and Brexit updates – both with explicit growth implications – are top listings while liquidity is readily available. Yet, one of the most potent potential events ahead has a deadline that occurs over the weekend. The United States warned some months ago that it would increase the ta

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

 

Dividend Adjustments 2 Dec - 9 Dec

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 2 Dec 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral adj

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

 

Growth vs monetary policy; top thematic catalysts; December trading Conditions - DailyFX Key Themes

What Matters More to Risk: Healthy Growth or More Stimulus?  This seems like it would be a simple question to answer from a textbook perspective; but if you’ve been active in your investment these past years, reality has clearly deviated from the theoretical. We have seen economic activity the world over progressively struggle for traction. This is not a question of interpretation or the reliability of the signals being triggered. There have been far too many realized indications of strain

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

 

Dividend Adjustments 25 Nov - 2 Dec

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 25 Nov 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

 

Trade war risks replace remissions; a reminder of recession risks; leveraging complacency risk - DailyFX Key Themes

Trump Threatens to Move Forward With Dec 15 Tariff Escalation, Considers Section 301  There have been a few critical developments these past few weeks that could have significant deescalated the daunting momentum of global trade wars. However, with each small improvement, we are met with an asterisk that could quickly undermine the good will as well as an alternative stab to weaken the outlook for global trade. For the US-China engagement, the White House backed off of the planned tariff es

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

 

Dividend Adjustments 18 Nov - 25 Nov

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 18 Nov 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

 

Trade war rumor and blackout; Dow breakout or blow off; assuming volatility extremes - DailyFX Key Themes

We Have Unresolved Trade War Issues Guided by Rumor or Complete Blackout  We closed out this past week to a broad swell in risk appetite. This enthusiasm wasn’t consistent for the global markets throughout the week, however, with most of the asset benchmarks that I follow for scope were struggling until the Friday pop. The exception to the rule was once again the seemingly impervious US equity indices. Whether you were evaluating sentiment for the Dow and S&P 500 through the week or the

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 11 Nov - 18 Nov

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 11 Nov 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  NB: All dividend adjustments are forecasts and therefore speculative. A dividend adjustment is a cash neutral ad

MaxIG

MaxIG

 

Trade war hole; European economic health; no more Fed cuts? - DailyFX Key Themes

The Cost of Drawing Out Trade Wars, Even If They Lift  As with most global military wars of the past, economic engagements exact a toll on the participating countries – and their peers – long after the ceasefire is struck. That is what we need to remember as officials on both sides of the table in the US-China negotiations offer rhetoric that attempts to keep local confidence buoyant. In reality, both governments are trying to walk the fine line whereby local consumers, businesses and inves

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Trade war traction; seasonal risk trends; top events - DailyFX Key Themes

Critical Fundamental Themes to Keep Watch For Next Week: Volatility Slipping Back into Habit of Complacency as Liquidity Fills [Indices, VIX] US-China Trade War – Beyond the Point of De-Escalation? [AUDUSD, USDCNH, Indices]  A Climb in Risk Appetite as More Fundamentals Fall Away [S&P 500, Dow] Recession Warnings In the Market Converging with Those in Data [Indices, Yields, Gold]  Monetary Policy Ability to Stabilize Growth, Markets [EURUS, ECB, Fed, BOJ, G

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Data overload; FOMC and extreme monetary policy; Brexit election vs deadline - DailyFX Key Themes

Market Conditions in Data Overload  Markets often struggle for traction when there is a lack of a clear motivator such as meaningful event risk or an evolving systemically important theme. On the other hand, there are times when a surfeit of important events, indicators and headlines overwhelm the clear speculative picture, leaving us with an abundance of volatility without the benefit of a reliable course. We have dallied with this latter scenario these past weeks, but the constant redirec

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 21 Oct - 25 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 21 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.    How do dividend adjustments work?  As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay d

JamesIG

JamesIG

Brexit next steps; EU-US trade war; EURUSD rally - DailyFX Key Themes

UK Parliament Votes to Delay Brexit Deal, Now What?  Heading into the weekend, overnight implied volatility behind the Cable and other Pound crosses had charged to their highest level in over two years. That reflected well the fundamental weight represented by the first Saturday sitting in the Commons in 37 years. Parliament convened to debate the government’s withdrawal agreement bill which Prime Minister Boris Johnson managed to hash out with European negotiators during the EU leaders sum

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 14 Oct - 21 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 14 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  Special Dividends         In

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

A US-China trade deal?; hope for Brexit breakthrough; IMF updates on economic outlook - DailyFX Key Themes

Is This a US-China Trade War Turn We Can Rely In?  The market was struck with a broad sense of enthusiasm through the second half of this past week. There were a number of developments – or expectations for forthcoming events – that contributed to this buoyancy. The theme stirring the most optimism was anticipation that the United States and China were finally making progress in their 15-month trade war. Just before the New York close on Friday, officials announced that indeed they had foun

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

APAC brief - 11 Oct

Markets spinning in circles as trade-talks get underway: It’s been a slightly dizzying 24-hours for the financial markets. Speculation is on overdrive regarding the likeliest outcomes for the US-China trade talks. Though it seems like chaos, it all amounts to little more than noise, as short-term traders have fun with trying to profit from the swings in sentiment. Fundamentally, little about the talks can be known yet. However, it seems investors’ cautiousness is turning to hope once again. Amid

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Trade wars; recession fears grow; gold's position - DailyFX Key Themes

The Trade War Spreads to More Critical, Global Growth Organs  We have been unofficially engaged in a global trade war since March 2018. That is when the United States moved forward with a tariff on imported metals (steel and aluminum) from any destination outside of the country. Since this opening salvo, there have been small actions against countries outside the singular focus of China, but the incredible escalation between Washington and Beijing has drawn most of the global attention. Wit

JohnDFX

JohnDFX

Dividend Adjustments 7 Oct - 14 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 7 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  Special Dividends         Ind

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

Dividend Adjustments 30 Sept - 7 Oct

Expected index adjustments  Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 30 Sept 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video.  Special Dividends         I

KirbyIG

KirbyIG

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