Fear of an increase in protectionism from the United States causes Asian equity markets to dip.
Profit warnings rise 29% quarter on quarter to 58 FTSE listed companies. Retail sector leads the way, and its expected the earnings shall continue due to uncertainty in the future.
Brexit secretary Raab says that the ‘no deal’ option is still on the table. GBP opened marginally down, but came back and has now gained from the Friday close.
G20 central bank leaders have warned that global economic growth risks have increased on the back of geopolitical tensions and trade war fears. Oil falls on the back of concerns on reduced fuel demand and a knock on to manufacturing.
Thursdays ECB meeting is likely to be the primary event in the spotlight this week, however even then it’s likely to be a low key release. Current data suggests that things are performing as expected, so at best we’re likely to see Draghi express his satisfaction at his staffs predictions.
Asian overnight: Market jitters have continued into this week, with a strong selloff in the Nikkei 225 highlighting the strengthening Yen coming thanks to its role as a haven. The session was largely mixed, with gains in China and Hong Kong offsetting some of the losses from the Japanese and Australian regions. The weekend’s G20 meeting of finance ministers and central governors saw continued worries over the impact of current trade tensions on the global growth picture.
UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a somewhat quiet start to the week on the economic calendar sees eyes turn to eurozone concerns, with the Bundesbank monthly report and consumer confidence from the eurozone. The US markets will be looking towards US existing home sales figure, following on last week’s disappointing building permits and housing starts figures. The earnings season ramps up, with today’s earnings from Alphabet representing the first heavy hitter to keep an eye out for.
South Africa: Global markets are trading mixed this morning, with US futures marginally lower, Australia and Japanese Indices trading firmly lower, while China and Hong Kong indices trade positive on the day. The Jse Top 40 Index is expected to trade marginally lower on open as it tempers strong gains from the end of last week. Miners in Australia are trading lower this morning with BHP Billiton down 1.4%, expectant of a similar start for locally listed resource counters today. Tencent Holdings is down 1.75% on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a similarly weak start for major holding company Naspers, which has a 20% weighting on the Top 40 Index. Today's economic calendar is relatively empty although markets will find guidance from earnings reports. South African banks are expected to release earnings updates in the week.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
1.30pm – US Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (June): forecast to rise to 0.4 from -0.15. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – eurozone consumer confidence (July, flash): forecast to fall to -2.3 from -0.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US existing home sales (June): expected to rise 1.5% MoM from -0.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
The BBC, ITV and Channel 4 are looking to join forces to provide a shared streaming service with all content in one place. This comes as Ofcom recently reported a decline in people watching traditional broadcasts, as well as a decline in spending on original content, over on demand paid services such as Netflix.
Ryanair said that net profit fell to €319 million for Q1, although revenue was up 9% to €2.08 billion. Net margins dropped 6 percentage points to 15%. Lower fares, the lack of an Easter half, and higher oil and pilot costs all hit performance. Full-year guidance was left unchanged.
BHP Billiton said that it intended to defend a claim against the group in Australia relating to the Samarco dam failure.
Hammerson has exchanged contracts for the sale of two retail parks for a total consideration of £164 million. The total sale price is at a 10% discount to the 2017 book value.
Anglo American Platinum (SA) Interim results showed headline earnings per share of 1282c, a significant increase from the 285c achieved in the comparable interim period last year.
Harmony Gold (SA) has announced that it has exceeded annual FY18 production.
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Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Just When You Think Trade Wars Can’t Grow More Extreme…
The last we left global trade wars heading into the close Friday July 13th (the week before last), the situation was already firmly planted in worrying escalation with little sign of relief in the sidelines of diplomacy and political cheerleading. The United States was still applying its metals tariffs against competitors and colleagues alike, the $34 billion intellectual property oriented tariffs were in place against China (not to mention China’s retaliation upon the US), and threats of a massive escalation by the Trump administration to the tune of $200 billion in import duties on China and a 20 percent tax on all imported European autos was still hanging in the air. It would seem near-impossible to inflame the situation further than that.
And yet, they have found a way. Looking to truly turn the screws in the face of retaliatory threats by China and WTO complaints, the US President warned Friday (and his Treasury Secretary echoed Saturday at the G20 meeting) that they could introduce tax on all of China’s imports – amounting to more than $500 billion. Normally, we would assume these are mere threats meant to prompt compromise out of shock, but this has been a threat issued and executed upon too frequently. While this just seems a self-defeating game of chicken where all participants suffer economically, there is certainly a strategy to this effort.
There are hints of Eco Adviser Kudlow and National Security Adviser Bolton in this effort; but it should be said that regardless of what their intent may be, the outcome is likely to hasten an inevitable turn in the global economy and financial markets – whether they relent last minute or not. Ahead, there are two important meetings scheduled for trade talks: President Trump is due to meet the EU’s Juncker and Malmstrom Wednesday while the US Trade Representative is set to talk trade with the Mexican Economy Minister on Thursday. Good luck to us all. Watch my weekend Trade Video to see more in this topic.
Is President Trump’s Dollar, Euro and Yuan Comments Pretense to a Currency War?
This past Thursday, President Trump sent the Dollar reeling after he weighed in on the path of higher rates and the level of the Dollar. With a background in real estate (and thereby debt financing), he lamented the Fed’s gradual pace of monetary policy tightening amid the trade wars his administration had pressed and the growing debt financing the country was facing – again increased with the recent tax cuts. He said the rates and currency rise that followed made other efforts the government was pursuing more difficult and ultimately made the US uncompetitive. The White House later moved to clarify that the President was not questioning the Fed’s independence or competence, but he would take to Twitter to double down on his remarks Friday.
A perception that the Dollar is low and claims that the Yuan and Euro are being lowered by their respective policy authorities looks suspiciously like pretext for starting a currency war. When it comes to the Chinese currency, there is little doubt that policy officials have a hand in its performance; but that is more and more likely a measure to dampen volatility rather than wholesale steer. Officials pointed to the rapid drop in the Yuan these past few months as evidence, but wouldn’t such a move arise if the trade war were having the intended effect? In fact China has shown over the past few years that too sharp a decline in the local currency was reason enough to step in and bid the CNH so as to curb fear of a capital flight.
As for the Euro, there is little ground in their claims of manipulation now as monetary policy efforts have disconnected from exchange rate movement – though had they made this accusation back in 2014, I would have agreed. Whether this claim is just rising out of the blue or indicates a strategy, it should truly concern us. Currency wars do not end well for anyone, they are more likely to trigger a fast-tracked financial crisis and it can be yet another systemic risk that sees the Dollar permanently lose status as the world’s dominant currency long term.
Evaluating How the ECB Rate Decision and US GDP Will Hit the Markets
It is clear that the week ahead will find its market winds determined by themes (trade wars, currency wars and perhaps even systemic risk trends). However, there are high profile events scheduled that will certainly carry important fundamental weight for the big picture evaluation – even if they don’t trigger the same definitive direction and short-term volatility that have in the past. That said, fundamentals must be evaluated as a hierarchy: the most pressing theme to the largest swath of the market will more decisively define the market’s bearings (whether higher, lower or sideways).
This in mind, two particular events should be watched closely whether they overcome the gravity of trade wars or not. Thursday’s ECB rate decision is very important. Over the previous meetings, there has been heavy speculation that the central bank is heading into an eventual and inevitable turn from its extremely dovish policy path with rhetoric clearly setting the stage. Speculation around this eventual hike has led to remarkable lift for the Euro even when the anticipation for the first move was 12 to 18 months ahead (as was the case throughout 2017). Yet, recent developments will make this policy gathering even more important. Will the central bank take into consideration the accusations by President Trump that it is fostering exchange rate manipulation? Will concern over trade wars’ curbing economic and financial health show through?
As for the US GDP reading on Friday, we will see the general health of the world’s largest economy as trade wars started to go into effect and the tax cuts hit full stride. A weak showing here could add considerable fear to the already existing concern that retaliations to tariffs could tip the US economy into correction and reinforce reports that the tax cuts had little effect on US consumption through the middle and lower class American households. Context will definitely paint these events, but that doesn’t diminish their relevance at all.
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 23rd July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange
Special Dividends
Index
Bloomberg Code
Effective Date
Summary
Dividend Amount
HSI
151 HK
27/07/2018
Special Div
1.25
STI
KEP SP
25/07/2018
Special Div
5
SIMSCI
KEP SP
25/07/2018
Special Div
5
How do dividend adjustments work?
As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian equity markets are mixed, however some pushed higher overnight over a volatile trading session as the Chinese yuan bounced off a one year low.
Trump showed displeasure towards the Fed's hikes, criticising policy and highlighting concerns on the potential impact of rising interest rates on the US economy causing the Dollar to sag.
The Comcast / Disney bidding war for 21st Century Fox ended yesterday with the former pulling out of the race. Comcast still plan on pursuing Sky.
70% of Royal Mail shareholders opposed a pay package deal for their new incoming CEO.
Airbus and Boeing have seen combined orders of nearly 1000 aircraft as this years Farnborough Air Show. This week has shown strength in the aviation industry with the UK government also unveiling plans for its 6th gen fighter jet, the ‘Tempest’.
A new test network has been launched for Raiden, an Ethereum payments channel project introduced as a potential solution for the cryptocurrencies scalability issues. Have your say on which new cryptocurrency IG offer in our community poll.
Asian overnight: Markets in Hong Kong struck a ten-month low yesterday, as Asian shares continued to suffer thanks to concerns about global trade wars. Australia was the sole point of light, rising 0.3%, with only materials stocks lower. China’s currency continued to weaken as well, crossing the Rmb6.8 mark against the dollar for the first time in a year. Markets are speculating that the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) will look to intervene in currency markets in lieu of the Yuan's recent decline.
The yuan against the dollar, down to 6.8211 after sliding as much as 0.7 percent, is currently at its weakest level in a year. It is now trading above the 6.7 mark, which historically has proved to be a strong support level for the yuan.
UK, US and Europe: UK monthly retail figures disappointed yesterday forcing GBP lower and the chance of an August rate hike continuing to slide. High street retail is facing serious problems at the moment with Poundworld closing the last 190 of its stores as early as August 10th, and Goucho Groups ‘Cau’ chain set to go as the group heads into administration. Online competition, high rents, and a shifting discretionary consumer spending habit are the primary factors as Brexit and potential rising interest rates (and therefore larger mortgage repayments) weigh on many spenders minds. Premium ‘restaurant style’ deals at supermarkets, which really came into their own after the 2008 debacle, continue to be a cost efficient, easy alternative for many, whilst large online retailers such as Amazon (which saw its market cap nudge past $900bn a couple of days back) continue to thrive.
The International Monetary Fund warns that a "no deal" Brexit would also be economically harmful to Eurozone countries, not just the UK. All goods and services would have to undergo stricter checks by the EU at its borders, complicating the systems currently in place. Estimates say that a "no deal" Brexit would cost the EU 1.5% of its GDP, or 250 billion euros.
Looking forwards, the losses seen in the Asian market are expected to continue in Europe, with small drops for indices expected. Canadian CPI is the sole macro point of interest, while on the earnings front General Electric and Schlumberger report figures. The US dollar will also be in focus after President Trump commented that further rate increases could derail the economic boom in the US.
South Africa: The rand slid even further than its emerging market currency peers yesterday after the South African Reserve Bank lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2018 to 1.2% from 1.7% previously. The rand has however posted a modest recovery this morning, although the longer term trend appears to remain that of weakening. Precious metal prices remain subdued , although palladium looks to have bucked the trend posting a near 2% gain. Crude prices are slightly firmer this morning. BHP Billiton is 2% lower in Asia this morning suggestive of a softer start for local diversified miners. Tencent is flat on the day, suggestive of a flat start for major holding company Naspers, which accounts for around a 20% weighting in the JSE Top40 index.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
1.30pm – Canada CPI (June): forecast to be 2.5% YoY from 2.2%, and 0.3% MoM from 0.1%. Core CPI to be 1.5% from 1.3% YoY. Markets to watch: CAD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Beazley reported pre-tax profit of $57.5 million for the first half, down from $158.7 million a year earlier. Gross premiums were up 25% to $1.32 billion.
Homeserve said that growth prospects for FY 2019 are good, thanks to in-line performance for the 1 April to 19 July period.
Unilever has commenced the second half of its €6 billion share buyback, which is expected to finish prior to the year-end.
Corem Property Upgraded to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
NP3 Fastigheter Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Recordati Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
Orion Upgraded to Hold at Jefferies
Deoleo Downgraded to Underperform at BBVA
EON Cut to Equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Kone Downgraded to Hold at DNB Markets
Outokumpu Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities
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Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Trade war worries offset the gains seen in Wall Street with the Asian equity market struggling overnight.
The trillion dollar valuation race between Apple and Amazon continues with Amazon tipping the $900bn valuation yesterday.
GBP continues to take a beating against major world currencies as CPI data yesterday remained unchanged, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike in August.
US banking shares continue to do good in earning season as Morgan Stanley profit jump.
Oil prices remain volatile but fall amid record U.S. output and stockpiling continues to build.
Have your say on which new cryptocurrency IG offer in our community poll.
Asian overnight: Asian markets traded largely lower, as a breakdown in talks between the US and China highlighted the potential longevity of this recent trade war. However, despite the lack of any developments in trade negotiations, markets have largely taken the news in their stride, with losses proving relatively minimal. The Australian ASX 200 index was the one gainer overnight, despite a simultaneous rise in the AUD thanks to a batch of jobs data. A sharp rise in the employment change figure saw it rise to the highest level of 2018 thus far.
UK, US and Europe: Global equity markets are trading mostly lower this morning although losses are marginal. While there appears to be no immediate and new economic catalysts to drive market movements this morning, US earnings remain a primary driver of equity markets right now. The dollar is slightly firmer and commodity prices modestly weaker this morning.
Looking ahead, yet another important UK economic reading comes out in the form of the retail sales figure. With underwhelming jobs and inflation data, the expectations of an August rate rise are gradually easing, driving the pound lower. With the retail sales number expected to tumble from 1.3% to 0.1%, we could see yet another warning sign for the BoE today. In the US session, keep an eye out for the Philly Fed manufacturing survey, alongside the latest unemployment claims figure.
South Africa: BHP Billiton is trading flat in Australia suggestive of a similar start for the South African listing of the company. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.6% lower in Asia, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. A weak trading statement is expectant of a soft open for Woolworths, following on from a negative reaction yesterday to Shoprites trading update.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
9.30am – UK retail sales (June): forecast to rise 2.4% YoY from 3.9% and 0.4% from 1.3% MoM. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 14 July), Philadelphia Fed mfg index (July): claims to rise to 217K from 214K, while the Philadelphia Fed index rises to 21.5 from 19.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
AO World said that Q1 revenue rose 8%, reflecting a strong start to the year in April and May, although demand was weaker in June. It remains on track to hit full-year expectations.
Unilever sales rose 1.9% in Q2, below the forecast 2.2%. A Brazilian transport strike and weak performance hit pricing.
Babcock expects low single digit underlying growth for the full year, versus a previous forecast of low mid-single digit growth. This was due to a slowdown in defence and marine work.
Sports Direct said that full-year core earnings rose 12.2% to £306.1 million, ahead of forecasts of £296 million. Core earnings are expected to rise 5-15% in the next financial year.
Buffet has won more power for share buy backs for Berkshire Hathaway if he feels the stock is undervalued. BRK gains 5.27% on the news.
Lloyd’s loses market share in the uk mortgage space last year to RBS and HSBC. Although companies usually want to remain dominant in all forms of market share, reducing exposure, and therefore risk, to this particular market going into rising interest rates and Brexit may not be the worst thing.
Adler Modemaerkte Upgraded to Buy at Oddo
Salzgitter Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
Ericsson Upgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue
HelloFresh Upgraded to Buy at Bankhaus Lampe
Alstria Office Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan
BioMerieux Downgraded to Hold at HSBC
Hypoport Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
Continental Downgraded to Hold at Bankhaus Lampe
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Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Oil prices dropped after an industry group reported that U.S. crude inventories rose last week, defying analyst expectations for a significant reduction.
Wage growth in Britain is slowing according to new data out yesterday, casting a shadow on the likelihood of a BoE rate hike in August. All eyes should be on UK CPI data later today.
Feds Powell said the “best way forward”, despite an impending trade war, was to continue to gradually increase rates.
IBM have backed a ‘stable coin’ supposedly pegged to the USD and running on the Stellar blockchain network. You can have your say on which new cryptocurrency IG offer in our community poll.
Asian overnight: A mixed bag for Asian markets has seen losses throughout Chinese and Hong Kong indices, while Japanese and Australian markets enjoyed a more positive session. Japanese stocks in particular enjoyed a boost from a weakening yen, with USDJPY reaching a five-month high.
UK, US and Europe: Last nights positive speech on the US economy by Federal Chair Person Jerome Powell, combined with some better than expected results from the financial sector to help stage a rebound in US equity markets.
European concerns turn to the UK once more, with the latest inflation data due out this morning. Coming off the back of a somewhat underwhelming UK jobs report yesterday, the market expectations for a strong rise in CPI could be a key determinant of BoE sentiment ahead of their August meeting. Also look out for the eurozone CPI reading, although this is a final revision. In the US, building permits and housing starts push the agenda onto the housing market, yet with Jerome Powell set to give his second monetary policy testimony in as many days, there is a chance he will grab the headlines. With crude price showing significant volatility over the past week, traders should watch for the US crude inventories figure, following the substantial drawdown in stocks announced last week.
South Africa: The positive sentiment is echoing into US Futures this morning and expected to translate into our local Index on open as well. The dollar has strengthened to weigh on precious metal prices. The rand has also weakened against the greenback. BHP Billiton is trading 3.29% higher following an upbeat FY18 operational update this morning, with gains expected to be replicated on the company's JSE listing. Tencent Holdings is up 0.3% in Asia, suggestive of a marginally firmer start for major holding company Naspers. Miners of precious metals are expected to underperform our market today on account of the softer pricing of the underlying commodity.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
9.30am – UK CPI (June): YoY inflation to rise 2.5% YoY from 2.4%, and core CPI to be 2.3% from 2.1% YoY. MoM CPI to be 0.4%, in line with May. Markets to watch: GBP crosses
10am – eurozone CPI (June): final YoY figure to be 2% from 1.9%, and 0.1% MoM from 0.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (June): starts to be down 4% MoM from a 5% rise, and permits to be up 0.7% MoM from a 4.6% fall. Markets to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA inventories (w/e 13 July): stockpiles forecast to fall by 1.9 million barrels, from a 12.6 million decrease a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
GVC said that net gaming revenues had risen 8% on a constant currency basis, for the first half of the year. Online business grew 20% over the same period. The World Cup and warm weather boosted performance.
Premier Foods said that sales rose 1.7% in the 13 weeks to 30 June, with good performances from the Mr Kipling and Batchelors brands.
easyJet expects headline pre-tax profit to be £550-590 million for the year to the end of September, up from previous forecasts of £530-580 million. Revenue rose 14% to £1.6 billion for the third quarter. Full-year headline costs per seat, excluding fuel, are expected to be 3% higher, from a previous 2% forecast rise, due to higher levels of industrial action.
Aker BP Upgraded to Buy at Norne Securities
Ascential Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
Brenntag Upgraded to Buy at Commerzbank
Proximus Upgraded to Hold at Jefferies
Bonava Downgraded to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
De’ Longhi Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Fresnillo Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank
Schibsted Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities
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Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
A sharp decline in oil prices has caused a lower Asian equity market session as energy sector is hit.
Netflix share tumble 14% late last night in after hours trading on poor quarterly results, helping to pull down the S&P futures.
The IMF has warned that tariffs imposed by the White House could initiate a $440bn knock to global growth and coined it the “greatest near term threat to global growth".
Yesterday BoA beat earning expectations, Deutsche Bank share jumped in surprise profits forecast, and BlackRock profits up as well. Could this be a barometer for other banks earnings and a possible trade idea over earning season?
Global regulators have started to lay the foundations to start monitoring crypto assets. BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world with $6.3 trillion in AUM, also announced a plan to build a crypto unit. Crypto markets rose sharply on the news.
Asian overnight: Asian markets largely traded in the red in the wake of a sharp deterioration in energy prices, with Japanese indices the only positive movers as they play catch up in the wake of yesterday’s bank holiday. Data wise, we saw the release of a weaker than expected inflation print from New Zealand, falling to 0.4% from 0.5%. Meanwhile, RBA minutes pointed towards a continued expectation that the next move will be a rate rise, although this remains some way off yet.
UK, US and Europe: US corporate earnings have taken the mantle in terms of being at the forefront of driving short term market sentiment. Yesterday a softer results release from Netflix saw the tech sector weaker and in turn the Nasdaq leading declines amongst the major US indices. Oil prices have come under enormous pressure overnight as suggestions that the US may waiver some sanctions on Iran oil. Looking ahead, a whole host of employment related data points from the UK brings the pound into focus. The dominant figure to look out of comes in the form of the average earnings number, with BoE’s Cunliffe specifically singling out the possible undershooting of wages as a reason to hold off on an August rate hike. Also keep an eye out for the US industrial production figure and an appearance from Fed governor Powell who is due to testify on monetary policy before the Senate Banking Committee.
South Africa: The dollar has lost a bit of strength and in turn the rand has gained marginally this morning. BHP Billiton is down 1.69% in Australia suggestive of a softer start for diversified resources. Tencent Holdings is 1.3% lower in Asia suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers.
Earning season look ahead: Earning season continues with Royal Mail and TalkTalk putting out quarterlies today, along with Johnson and Johnson, Progressive, and Fidelity. Don't forget Morgan Stanley, American Express, Hochschild Mining, RPC Group and Severn Trent look to publish on Wednesday, and there may be some trade potential there give the results from banks yesterday.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
9.30am – UK employment data: May unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%, June claimant count to be 11K from -7.7K, and May average earnings to rise 2.7% from 2.5% (including bonus). Markets to watch: GBP crosses.
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Rio Tinto produced 88.5 million tonnes of iron ore in the second quarter, representing a 14% rise compared with the same quarter in 2017. Improved weather and productivity throughout its Pilbara iron ore operations in Western Australia were most notable amongst reasons for this shift. 2018 shipments are expected to be towards to top end of its 330-340 million tonnes guidance.
Royal Mail traded in line with expectations, with a decline in addressed letter business (down 7%) and marketing mail over the three months to June 24 vs the same time last year.
CashBuild Revenue for the fourth quarter for the Cashbuild Group was up 4% on the fourth quarter of the prior financial year, with the 42 new stores opened or acquired since 1 July 2016 contributing 5% of the increase, whilst the 276 existing stores decreased by 1%. The growth for the fourth quarter together with the growth of the previous quarters, equates to an increase in revenue for the Cashbuild Group of 5% for the financial year, with new stores contributing 5% of the increase and existing stores remaining at similar levels.
Asos Upgraded to Buy at Goldman
Morgan Advanced Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
Deutsche Bank Upgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
Michelin Upgraded to Buy at HSBC
Investec maintain buy rating on Naspers (SA) with a target price of 440000c
Investec maintain buy rating on Tencent with a target price of HK$530
Adidas Downgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Brunello Cucinelli Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman
Featured Video from IGTV
Dick Bove, veteran banks analyst and chief strategist at Hilton Capital Management, tells IGTV that Citigroup is most at risk from the US-Sino trade tensions. Bank of America (BoA) is his top pick in the sector, praising CEO Bryan Moynihan as ‘an expert CEO’. Bove says he can see the stock rising to $60. Meanwhile, he says JPMorgan’s numbers were ‘superb’ while Wells Fargo was ‘very disappointing.’ However if we enter into a recession, he says ‘all bets are off’.
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian shares down. China sees GDP growth data for Q2 soften which fuels fears as trade war row concerns build.
Trump and Putin will sit down today for their first ever summit. Remarks from the pair could boost defence stocks.
May's Brexit brings another MP resignation as the trade bill fight looms over the government.
The UK's Rightmove house price index was published this morning and shows continued stalling and devaluation in London’s housing market. This could be seen as a barometer for wider inflation and brexit fears.
Oil prices remain volatile with prices easing on supply hike fears.
Dollar fails to gain momentum which supports gold prices.
Earning season really kicking off with Royal Mail, Netflix, BoA, Unilever, Johnson and Johnson, and General Electric all amongst those publishing. Check out the ‘Earning Season weekly look ahead’ below for more info.
Asian overnight: While Japan's Nikkei Index is closed on account of a banking holiday, most of the other Asian equity markets are trading lower this morning. A slow start to the week has seen losses across Chinese, Hong Kong and Australian markets. A weaker Chinese GDP reading saw the lowest level of growth since 2016 (6.7%), down on the previous 6.8%, however inline with expectations. We also saw a slowdown in fixed asset investment and industrial production, while retail sales provided the one positive reading. Trade war concerns are likely to continue into this new week, with Trump declaring that the EU, like China and Russia, is a foe of the US. Analysts from UBS speculate that a full blown trade war could knock off up to 20% from the S&P, 25% from European markets, and up to 24% off Asian equity markets.
UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, watch out for the eurozone trade balance data, while US retail sales, empire state manufacturing survey, and the business inventories figures provide the interest for the afternoon session. It's also worth noting that the UK's CPI figures released on Wednesday are expected to rise, backing up sentiment from some within the BoE’s MPC that interest rates should rise. Keep an eye out for GBP crosses and a bullish signal on any news which would support this claim.
South Africa: While US Index Futures are modestly up, the Jse Top40 Index is expected to open modestly lower today following Asian markets. Precious metal prices trade slightly firmer this morning although still at depressed levels. Base metal prices are under pressure, as are oil prices today. The rand has managed to strengthen marginally against the majors over the weekend. BHP Billiton is down 0.75% in Australia, which along with softer base metal prices and a stronger ZAR is suggestive of a softer start for locally listed diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.15% on the Hang Seng.
Earning Season weekly look ahead: Earning season will really kick off this week with Bank of America, the worlds largest asset manager Blackrock, and streaming giant Netflix reporting figures today, along with the UK’s WH Ireland. Royal Mail and TalkTalk put out quarterlies tomorrow, along with Johnson and Johnson, Progressive, and Fidelity. Morgan Stanley, America Express, Hochschild Mining, RPC Group and Severn Trent look to publish on Wednesday. The well knock consumer goods company Unilever are up on Thursday, along with Big Yellow Group, Bank of New York Mellon, and Philip Morris International. General Electric, Baker Hughes, and Schlumberg will end an exhausting week on Friday. Told you it was a big one...
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
1.30pm – US retail sales (June), Empire state mfg index (July): sales expected to rise 0.6% MoM from 0.8% and Empire state index to fall to 22.75 from 25. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Google could be hit by an $11bn fine tomorrow over allegations it’s forced it’s mobile Android users to illegally favour their own apps, for example the Chrome web browser, over others. This $11bn fine could be up to 10% of Alphabets global turnover.
TP Group expects to deliver full-year results in line with expectations after making a good start to 2018. It has closed a number of contracts since January, including £12.5 million of UK contracts for submarine equipment.
Indivior has won a temporary injunction on a generic opioid addiction treatment.
Meggitt has won a $21 million five-year contract to supply equipment for US Black Hawk helicopters.
ZTE stock surges as US supplier sees their ban lifted, however the outlook still looks uncertain.
MTN Dubai Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of MTN Group, has entered into an agreement in which it has sold 100% of MTN Cyprus to Monaco Telecom S.A. (“Monaco Telecom”) as part of an ongoing review of its portfolio. The net sale proceeds of €260 million (approximately R4,1 billion) will be paid upfront in cash. The transaction values MTN Cyprus at approximately 8x reported 2017 EBITDA.
Anglo American Upgraded to Buy at Citi
Asos Upgraded to Buy at Citi
Lagardere Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Ferrexpo Upgraded to Neutral at Citi
AA PLC Cut to Equal-weight at Barclays
NetEnt Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities
Adyen Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
DNA Downgraded to Hold at SEB Equities
Featured Video from IGTV
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
So Much Risk, Status Quo is an Improvement
In individual trading sessions or entire weeks where there is an overwhelming amount of important, scheduled event risk; we often find the market frozen with concern of imminent volatility. Even as a remarkable surprise prints on the docket early in the week, the impact it generates is often truncated by the concern that the subsequent release can generate just as much shock value but in the opposite direction. Many opportunities have been spoiled by such situations.
Yet, what happens if we face the same situation on a grander scale? What if the threats are thematic, global and frequently lacking a specific time frame? We are facing just such a scenario now. The most troublesome subject is the unpredictable winds from the global trade wars. For influence, this is a systemic threat as the economic pain will inevitably come to a head. If we had an end date to work with, there would be a more decisive risk aversion, but it is the uncertainty of pacing that leaves the markets to drift with anxiety. Most critical updates in this ‘war’ have come out of the blue in the form of a tweet from US President Donald Trump.
Add to this fully capable theme conflicting – though less capricious – matters, and there is just enough sense of opportunity in short-term efforts to keep bulls clinging to hope. Monetary policy, new and failing economic relationships, corporate earnings and more can fill in between shocks of new tariff threats. Though, if we came to a scenario of a universal dovish shift in central banks (or any other theme for that matter), would it be enough to offset the blight to global growth from trade wars? Not likely.
Any Whiff of Fed Worry and a Dollar with Everything to Lose
I weighed out my theory last week that Fed policy can only disappoint moving forward. That is not to say it can maintain a sense of status quo – it certainly can. However, the genuine opportunities for this central bank to ‘surprise in favor of the bulls’ is so improbable as to be impractical. It has already established a pace remarkably aggressive relative to counterparts. If conditions continue to support growth and optimism, it would lead other central banks onto a path to close the gap with the Fed. If economic and financial health floundered, the Fed would in turn have to ease its pace.
This past week, the CPI data gave quantitative support for the status quo – though not any material Dollar lift. The Fed’s monetary policy update to Congress on the other hand laced its confidence on the economic outlook with modest concern over the fallout from trade wars while a separate report suggested the tax cuts would have less positive effect on the economy than previously anticipated. You can bet Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will have to address questions on both fronts when he testifies before the Senate Wednesday in the semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. There are many Congressmen and –women from both parties who have called out the President’s aggressive position on trade as self-defeating.
Powell will want to avoid triggering market fears (avoiding volatility is a third, unspoken mandate of the central bank), but the lawmakers will push the topic whether to illustrate the damage they fear or to earn political points. If he admits growth is at risk from the advance of trade wars, it would signal to the market that the pacing already baked in is less stable than what is presumed, and the passive premium behind the dollar may start to bleed off.
China Data Run and Data Questions
China is in a very difficult position. It is attempting to transition itself from methods of growth that are impossible to maintain over the long term without inadvertently causing disastrous instability. To successfully make this ‘evolution’ to an economy primarily supported by domestic consumption, stable capital markets and a wealthier population (rather than leveraged financing and questionable export policies), the government requires a remarkable amount of stability.
The healthy risk appetite and moderate growth registered for the global economy over the past five years was the perfect environment upon which to pursue this effort. That is especially true because the Chinese data that already draws a fair amount of skepticism from the rest of the world would look like an unlikely idyllic steering for the economy – a pace that could be dubiously attributed to the general environment. Now, however, that gentle landing has been disrupted by the aggression from the United States. The drive to escalate trade wars threatens not just the important trade between to two countries, it risks pushing disbelief over China’s statistics to the breaking point. Though they would not likely show serious pressure in any area of the economy or financial system that they control, markets have grown adept at reading between the official lines when it comes to China.
Spurring fears of a ‘hard landing’ for the world’s second largest economy could spur capital flight as foreign investors look to repatriate and nationals attempt to slip through controls to diversify their exposure. It should be said that if there is a crisis in China, it will spread to the rest of the world; but some may be happy if China were permanently put off the path to securing its position as the antipodean super power to the US. It is this big picture landscape that we must keep in mind as the important data of the coming week – China 2Q GDP, fixed investment, surveyed jobless rate, retail sales and foreign direct investment – crosses the wires with unsurprisingly little impact on the controlled USDCNH exchange rate.
Any questions, just ask. John Kicklighter
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 16th July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange
Special Dividends
No special divs this week.
How do dividend adjustments work?
As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian session solid on reduced trade war fears.
UK equity markets follow suit, along with a strong bidding war emerging for Sky, giving a green day for the FTSE yesterday and a positive start to the day today.
However data from China today showing a record trade surplus risks further inflaming trade tensions.
Trump is visiting the UK and has said that PM May is executing Brexit incorrectly.
Trump's comments suggest May's Brexit plan is likely to kill hopes of a US trade deal.
Brent crude sees it's biggest decline in 2 years, dropping as much as 6.9% yesterday.
Earning season is kicking off in the US. Featured IGTV video below.
Asian overnight: Trade fears continue to recede, as they have done ever since Tuesday night’s brief panic, with a solid session from Asian markets following on from a good day for US equities. A softer tone from China and their willingness to resume trade talks with the US is helping a risk on environment as most markets extend near term gains at present. While global equity markets are trading mostly firmer overnight, China's Shanghai Composite has given up 0.4% in early trade. Trade balance data from the region saw a larger than expected surplus realised as exports grew while imports slowed. A new record high for the Nasdaq confirmed the strength of this market, representing an interesting ‘safe haven’ from trade concerns. Australian stocks bucked the trend however, as financials dropped 0.7% to see the index drop 0.3% overall.
Brent crude has seen it's biggest decline in 2 years dropping as much as 6.9% yesterday, a huge move for the black gold, on the back of Libya's state owned oil company saying that it is planning on increasing supply to match the current demand increase. They have also said they are looking at opening all four export channels that have been closed for the last month. This comes on the back of significant worries for energy traders with the Trump tariffs constantly knocking on the door, increasing fears that a knock on to global growth is just around the corner. Today sees the weekly Baker Hughes rig count from the US which is worth keeping an eye on.
UK, US and Europe: President Trump has been causing mayhem in Europe already this week, and now he brings his special brand of magic to the UK. Having dined with the PM last night, today he is in the papers decrying her Brexit deal, setting us up for a fascinating press conference. The economic calendar is sparse today, but US earnings season gets underway in earnest with the release of bank earnings from Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo.
South Africa: The Jse AllShare index is expected to open up modestly firmer this morning in line with the mostly positive short term global market sentiment. The rand has clawed back further strength against the majors, which should aid initial gains on local banking and retail counters. BHP Billiton is down 0,7% in Australia suggestive of a softer start for local diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is trading more or less flat in Asia, suggestive of a flat start for major holding company Naspers.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
3pm – US Michigan consumer confidence index (July, preliminary): forecast to fall to 98.1 from 98.2. Market to watch: USD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Workspace Group has seen lettings fall 5% in Q1, though enquiries have risen. Three refurbishment projects completed in June, and six more are expected in this financial year.
DCC said that Q1 profits were in line with expectations, and that it continues to expect profit o be weighted towards the second half of the year. It has also acquired two firms, Stampede and Kondor, with a combined enterprise value of £110 million.
Experian has started the year well, in line with forecasts, with overall revenue growth of 10% in Q1 (at constant exchange rates).
Ashmore saw assets fall $2.6 billion to $73.9 billion for the quarter to 30 June. Despite net inflows, a seasonal slowdown and a stronger US dollar had hit emerging markets hard.
Dawn (SA) Revenue for FY18 declined by 19/1% to R3.5bn. In H1 F2018 revenue declined by 19,8% and in H2 F2018 revenue declined by 18,3%. Volumes in F2018 declined by 19,1% and price inflation remained flat.
Diageo upgraded to buy at Goldman
Evraz upgraded to buy at Renaissance Capital
IMI upgraded to buy at HSBC
Norwegian Air upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
Featured Video from IGTV
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian overnight: Market volatility remains evident throughout Asia, with yesterday’s sharp tumble being followed up by a strong rebound overnight. Chief amongst those gainers were the Chinese markets, which gained ground despite the ongoing trade war with the US. Suggestions that China and the US could resume trade talks has helped boost short term market sentiment. Crude prices were also fighting back in the wake of the biggest one-day decline in more than two years yesterday.
UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a relatively quiet European session sees industrial production data from the eurozone take precedence in the lead up to the latest ECB monetary policy minutes. Meanwhile, the US will be keeping a close eye out for the CPI inflation data and unemployment claims number.
South Africa: We are expecting a higher open on the local SA bourse today as US Futures and Asian markets rebound this morning. Emerging market currencies and metal prices are in turn finding some reprieve today. Tencent Holdings is up 0.5% in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 0.6% lower in Australia suggestive of a slightly softer start for locally listed diversified miners. Mining production and sales data is scheduled for release at 11:30am and Manufacturing production and sales data is scheduled for release at 1pm today.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
10am – eurozone industrial production (May): expected to be 2.8% YoY and 0.8% MoM, from 1.7% and -0.9% respectively. Market to watch: EUR crosses
1.30pm – US CPI (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 7 July) headline CPI to be 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, from 2.8% and 0.2% respectively. Core CPI to be 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY, from 0.2% and 2.2% respectively. Initial jobless claims to fall to 227,000 for the week, from 231,000 a week earlier. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Dunelm said that store like-for-like sales were up 1% to £805 million for the year to 30 July, while online sales rose 37.9% like-for-like to £105.4 million. Pre-tax profit is expected to be £102 million for the full year.
ASOS expects full-year profit to be in line with forecasts, as total sales rose 22% to £802.7 million for the four months to 30 June. Full-year pre-tax profit is expected to be around £101 million.
B&M European Value Retail said that it enjoyed a strong start to the year, with revenue growth of 21.3% overall in the quarter, up 1.6% on a like-for-like basis.
Aker BP upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan
Hapag-Lloyd raised to neutral at Goldman
Maersk upgraded to buy at Goldman
Roche upgraded to buy at Berenberg
ITV downgraded to neutral at Goldman
Pagegroup downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Sky cut to neutral at Macquarie
Veidekke downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
Featured Video from IGTV
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
The Trump house looks to impose 10% tariffs on $200 bln of Chinese goods.
Shanghai and Hong Kong equity markets drag down the wider overnight Asian session.
The bidding war on Sky continues with Murdoch's Fox offering £14/share beating Comcasts previous £12.50.
Copper and zinc slide to 1-year low, oil also sharply lower on trade war fears.
Asian overnight: Asian markets were back in the red overnight, as Donald Trump has once again ramped up trade war fears, driving away any optimism built in recent days. With Trump starting the process that will ultimately lead to the imposition of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, there is reason to believe we are entering the next stage of the trade war between the two countries. Unsurprisingly we have seen losses across the board overnight, with the heaviest falls centred upon the Chinese and Hong Kong markets. US and European futures are trading lower this morning as well.
UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, central banks are in focus, with appearances from ECB and BoE governors Mario Draghi and Mark Carney. The big event of the day comes in the form of the Bank of Canada rate decision, where the committee is expected to push interest rates higher for the first time in 2018. Also keep an eye out for US PPI, and crude oil inventories data.
South Africa: We are expecting a softer open on the local SA index as the trade war narrative see's escalation once again. We have seen some strength returning to the dollar and in turn mostly weaker commodity prices and a softer rand. Tencent is trading 2.3% lower in Asia this morning, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.3% lower in Australia, suggestive of an initial decline for local resource counters. A softer rand is expected to continue to weigh on financial counters as well as local retail counters.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
1.30pm – US PPI (June): forecast to be 0.1% from 0.5% MoM, while core PPI falls to 0.2% from 0.3%. Market to watch: USD crosses
3pm – Bank of Canada rate decision: rates expected to remain at 1.25%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 6 July): stockpiles expected to fall by 230,000 barrels from a 1.5 million barrel drop a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Sky has agreed new terms for its takeover by 21st Century Fox, with the US firm offering £14 per share, up from the previous £10.75 per share.
Burberry reported a 3% rise in like-for-like sales for Q1, and there was no change to full year guidance.
Indivior said that guidance for its financial year was ‘no longer valid’, as a rival generic product in the US has a major impact on operations. The revenue impact could be $25 million for 2018.
Barratt Developments expects record profit for the year, bolstered by Help to Buy. Pre-tax profits are expected to be £835 million, from £765.1 million a year ago. The firm completed 17,579 homes, compared to 17,395 last year, while the number of plots sold was up 4%.
Coca-Cola HBC upgraded to buy at Jefferies
Drax upgraded to outperform at Macquarie
LPKF upgraded to buy at HSBC
HSBC upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan UBS upgrade Barclays Africa from sell to neutral with a target price of 19700c
BHP downgraded to hold at Renaissance Capital
CYBG downgraded to underperform at KBW
Trelleborg downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
Virgin Money downgraded to market perform at KBW
Featured Video from IGTV
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
A lack of trade war news is jumped on by Asian equity markets which rally for a third consecutive session.
Boris Johnson follows David Davis and resigns from his position of Foreign Secretary sparking speculation of a rebellion.
Oil dropped yesterday after Merkel and Li commit to Iran nuclear deal, before supply shortages and strikes in of oil workers in Norway aided the reversal for brent and WTI to finish up.
Gold prices inch up amid the continued Brexit uncertainty, whilst subdued dollar assists commodities.
Asian overnight: Asian markets failed to sustain their overwhelmingly positive start to the week, with the overnight session seeing gains in Japanese and Hong Kong markets counteracted by weakness in China and Australia. Energy stocks were in focus amid a rise in crude prices, while the pound recovered much of the losses seen in the wake of yesterday’s political rollercoaster ride. On the data front, Chinese inflation data moved higher as expected, with CPI rising from 1.8% to 1.9%, while PPI jumped from 4.1% to 4.7%.
UK, US and Europe: Despite two years of hashing out a brexit plan and continued discussions with the EU, and a confirmation by May that she had secured an agreement on Britains biggest foreign and trading policy in nearly 50 years, two UK MP's quit citing a change of heart in something the cabinet had agreed on last week. Looking ahead, the UK remains in focus, with the first monthly GDP reading from the ONS set to be released. This comes amid the release of goods trade balance data, industrial, and manufacturing production figures, ensuring the pound remains in focus. Finally, watch out for the ZEW economic survey from Germany, with eurozone sentiment in the spotlight.
South Africa: Global markets are trading mixed this morning as US Futures continue overnight gains in US equity markets, while the Shanghai Composite and Australia All Ordinaries Indices trade lower today. While the trade war narrative remains in markets investor focus will now find a further catalyst in the US earnings season which commences this week. Precious metal prices are trading relatively unchanged this morning, although base metal prices looked to have commenced with a rebound. The rand has firmed, particularly against a weakening pound following yesterday's resignation of UK ministers. Tencent Holdings is trading 2.3% lower in Asia, suggestive of a similar start today for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is trading 1.09% higher this morning in Australia, suggestive of a positive start for local diversified miners.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
9.30am – UK trade balance (May): deficit forecast to narrow to £1.2 billion from £5.3 billion. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – German ZEW economic sentiment (July): forecast to rise to -14 from -16.1. Market to watch: EUR crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Ocado has seen a first half loss of £9 million, compared to a £7.7 million profit a year ago. Revenue was up 12.1% to £800 million.
Kier said that it expected underlying profit to be in line with forecasts, and while poor weather has hit activity, volumes have returned to levels in line with expectations.
TP ICAP has downgraded earnings forecasts for the year, due to rising costs and lower-than-forecast benefits from the recent merger. Finance costs will rise, as will staff compensation.
Tsogo Sun Holdings - Further to the cautionary announcements issued by Tsogo, the last of which was issued on SENS on 31 May 2018, the board of directors of Tsogo is pleased to announce that Akani Egoli Proprietary Limited, Silverstar Casino Proprietary Limited, Tsogo Sun Casinos Proprietary Limited, Tsogo Sun KwaZulu Natal Proprietary Limited and Tsogo Sun Newcastle Proprietary Limited, all of which are wholly-owned subsidiaries of Tsogo and Tsogo, Listed Investments Proprietary Limited and Cassava Investments Proprietary Limited, have entered into a sale of shares and subscription agreement with Hospitality Property Fund Limited and its wholly-owned subsidiary Merway Fifth Investments Proprietary Limited for the disposal by the sellers to Hospitality of a portfolio of seven mixed-use casino precinct properties for an aggregate purchase consideration of R23 billion.
Acacia Mining upgraded to overweight at Barclays
Ascential upgraded to add at Peel Hunt
Chemring Group raised to overweight at Barclays UBS upgrade Barclays Africa from sell to neutral with a target price of 19700c
Computacenter cut to underweight at Barclays
Straumann cut to market perform at Bernstein
Temenos cut to underweight at Barclays
Featured Video from IGTV
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
This blog post is to update everyone of the themes that DailyFX expects to focus on in the week ahead. Given the focus of previous weeks, the backdrop market conditions and the event risk ahead; the three topics below will be particularly important in our coverage.
Risk trends amid trade wars
If you somehow were in doubt that trade wars were already underway, the enactment of reciprocal $34 billion tariffs by the United States and China on each other this past week should banish that disbelief. For much of the world, the score is one whereby the US has triggered an opening import tax on the world’s second largest economy for what it perceives as intellectual property theft, and China has retaliated in kind.
From the Trump administration’s perspective, the actions are a long overdue move to balance decades of unfair trade practices. Both feel they are reacting rather than instigating which gives both sides a sense of righteousness that can sustain escalating reprisals. Yet, as discussed previously, this is not the first move in the economic engagement. The United States’ metals tariffs was the first outright move that came without the pretense of operating through WTO channels. And, in a speculative market where the future is factored into current market price; the unilateral and extraordinary threats should be considered the actual start.
The anticipation of a curb on global growth and capital flow very likely was a contributing factor to the stalled speculative reach and increased volatility over the past three months. Yet, markets have not collapsed under the fear of an economic stall with values pushing unreasonable heights. Perhaps this market simply needs to see the actual evidence of fallout before it starts moving to protect itself. This past week, the midnight cue for the tariffs notably didn’t send capital markets stumbling. In fact, the major US indices all advanced through Friday’s session. Blissful ignorance can last for ‘a little longer’, but blatant disregard for overt risks on a further reach for yield is hoping for too much.
A Brexit breakthrough…to the next obstacle
Heading into a full cabinet meeting this past Friday, headlines leveraged serious worries that UK Prime Minister Theresa May would find herself moving further into a corner on a split Brexit view from which she would no longer be able to escape a confidence vote checkmate. Yet, the reported rebel ministers that were pushing for a more stringent position on trade and market access in the divorce procedures seemingly relented.
May was free to pursue a ‘free trade area for goods’ with close customs ties (though bank access would be restricted somewhat). From the market’s perspective, this is a tangible improvement in the general situation as it removes at least one level of ambiguity in a very complicated web. The foundation of ‘risk’ – as I’m fond to reiterate – is the uncertainty of future returns. If your investment is 95% likely to yield a given return, there is little risk involved. On the other hand, if that return is only 10% (regardless of how large it may be) there is a high risk associated. The same evaluation of this amorphous event applies.
With the UK government on the same page in its return to the negotiation table, there is measurably less uncertainty. That said, this was only an agreement from one side of the discussion; and the EU has little incentive to give particularly favorable terms which would encourage other members to start their own withdrawal procedures. Furthermore, there is still a considerable range of issues for which the government and parliament are still at odds. If you are interested in the Pound, consider what is feasible for any bullish exposure with the cloud cover of uncertainty edging down from 100% to 90%.
Fed monetary policy can only disappoint from here
We don’t have a FOMC meeting scheduled for this coming week; but in some ways, what is on the docket may have greater sway over monetary policy speculation. The US central bank has maintained a policy of extreme transparency, going so far as to nourish speculation for rate hikes through their own forecasts and falling just short of pre-committing. They cannot pre-commit to a definitive path for policy because they must maintain the ability to respond to sudden changes in the economic and financial backdrop. And, making a sudden change from a vowed move will trigger the exact volatility the policy authority is committed to avoiding.
Yet, how significant is the difference between an explicit vow on future monetary policy and a very heavy allusion in an effort at ‘transparency’. The markets adapt to the availability of evidence for our course and fill in with whatever gaps there are with speculation. This level of openness by the Fed sets a dangerous level of certainty in the markets. With that said, what is the course that we could feasibly take from here? Is it probable that the rate forecast continues to rise from here – further broadening the gap between the Fed and other central banks?
That is what is likely necessary to earn the Dollar or US equities greater relative value given its current favorable standing isn’t earning further gains. More likely, the outlook for the Fed will cool whether that be due to the US closing in on its perceived neutral rate, economic conditions cooling amid trade wars or the increasing volatility of the financial markets jeopardizing onerous yields. Where the Dollar may have underperformed given the Fed’s policy drive in 2017, it still carries a premium which can deflate as their outlook fades. This puts the upcoming June US CPI reading and the Fed’s monetary policy update for Congress in a different light. All of this said, this is not the only fundamental theme at play when it comes to the Dollar. There is trade wars, reserve diversification and general risk trends. Interestingly enough, all of those carry the same skew when it comes to the potential for impact.
Any questions, just ask. John Kicklighter
David Davis resigns from his poll position as Brexit secretary. Sterling feels the pinch.
Global equity markets rally on US jobs relief, whilst dollar falters.
Balanced U.S. jobs data suggest Fed can stay gradual on hikes
Oil inches up whilst gold gains on the weaker dollar.
NYSE technology chief has jumped ship to join the Winklevoss ‘bitcoin billionaires’ cryptocurrency venture as their first CTO for Gemini.
Asian overnight: Asian markets have seen substantial gains overnight, as we see a continued feedback from Friday’s strong US jobs data and easing fears over the US - China trade war. The US non-farm jobs report alluded to an improving labour market with 213 000 people being added t the payroll last month, where expectation was for 195000 people to have been added. The dollar has softened somewhat lifting commodity prices, in particular that of precious metals.
UK, US and Europe: The overnight resignation of UK Brexit Secretary David Davis had added a focus onto the pound, with the weekend gap higher erased as markets seek to find answers of what this means for negotiations with the EU. British Chambers of Commerce believe forward looking indicators predicting the growth of the economy are not strong enough to warrant a rate rise at the next MPC meeting on August 2nd. A poll conducted by the group reviewed more than 6000 firms from the UK.
The economic calendar looks relatively quiet for the day ahead, and that bullish theme overnight seems likely to carry through into European trade. Look out for appearances from ECB governor Mario Draghi, alongside BoE member Broadbent.
South Africa: The rand has managed to claw back some of its recent losses, as outflows from emerging markets halt for the time being. We are expecting broad-based gains on the JSe initially, with a stronger rand aiding a rebound in local banking and retail counters. BHP Billiton is up 2% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 2.53% suggestive of a positive start for local holding company Naspers.
Company earnings: Pepsi will report second quarter results tomorrow, whilst fashion house Burberry and America's Delta Airlines will follow on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. We also see big banknames Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase and Citigroup finish the week on Friday.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Centamin said that gold production fell 25% in Q2, due to low metal grades at its Egypt mine. Production was expected to be 505,000 to 515,000 ounces for the full year.
Purplebricks has completed the acquisition of Canadian estate agency Duproprio/Comfree, for £29.3 million.
Murray & Roberts Holdings (SA) - Shareholders are referred to the announcement released on SENS today by Aveng regarding a notification received from ATON on Thursday, 5 July 2018, indicating that ATON and its wholly owned subsidiary ATON Austria Holdings GmbH, have in aggregate, acquired an interest in the ordinary shares of Aveng, such that the total interest in the ordinary shares of Aveng now amounts to 25.42% of the total issued ordinary shares of
Aveng.
Beazley upgraded to top pick at RBC
G4S upgraded to top pick at RBC
Meggitt upgraded to buy at Berenberg
TalkTalk upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
UBS upgrade Barclays Africa from sell to neutral with a target price of 19700c
Nedbank Limited’s (SA) national scale rating was upgraded to ‘zaAA+’ from ‘zaAA’ by S&P
Hargreaves Lansdown cut to underweight at JPMorgan
Virgin Money cut to equal-weight at Barclays
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Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 9th July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange
Special Dividends
No special dividends this week.
How do dividend adjustments work?
As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Trump tariffs now in effect, however markets have generally priced this in.
Fed hints at last nights FOMC that it could raise rates twice more this year. Greenback gains removing some of the earlier gains from GBPUSD.
Carney warns that Trumps trade tariffs could damage the global economy knocking up to 2.5 percentage points of global growth over three years, but has warned Trump that these tariffs will hurt the US the most. Carney still upbeat about UK growth.
New figures show that UK high street retailers could suffer the ‘worst year on record’.
Copper extends losses on worries about global growth. The metal, seen as a bellwether of economic health, has hit a fresh 11 month low in London's LME. This week alone the metal has shed nearly 5% which has put it on it's steepest weekly drop since mid November 2017.
Asian overnight: Asian markets were in surprisingly positive mood overnight, as a dovish Fed meeting helped ease any fears over the ramp up in tariffs between the US and China today. The imposition of tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods in either direction have done little to market sentiment, with much of the implications seemingly priced in. However, we have since seen Donald Trump mention the possibility of adding another $300 billion on top of the $200 billion in goods already mentioned in the past. Markets are however gaining despite this trade war result, suggesting that perhaps the news has already been priced in. The rebound in global markets should be treated with caution as we await further retaliation from China and the suggested escalation from the US regarding this matter. Overnight data saw Japanese household spending fall, while average cash holding improved significantly.
UK, US and Europe: A busy day for the US follows a relatively quiet economic calendar in Europe, with one of the main figures already released in the form of the German industrial production number (2.6% from -1.3%). The focus for most will be the US and Canadian jobs report, with markets set to see whether the headline NFP number will follow the ADP figure lower. With market expectations of a September already elevated, todays jobs figures will add another important piece of that puzzle for traders.
South Africa: South Africa's local equity market is expected to initially follow gains in the US and Asia, although could trade tentatively into the US employment data releases this afternoon. South Africa's gold and foreign exchange reserves for June 2018 were reported to have been recorded at slightly lower levels than in the previous month. The rand has managed to claw back some strength today which is expected to aid gains in local banking and retail counters. BHP Billiton is trading 0.85% higher in Australia this morning suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. Tencent Holdings is up 0.26% in Asia, suggestive of a marginally positive start for major holding company Naspers, although the stronger rand may temper some of these gains.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (June): payrolls expected to fall to 190K from 223K, while the unemployment rate holds at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings forecast to be 0.2% higher MoM, from 0.3%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – Canada employment data (June): 17,500 jobs expected to have been created, from a 7500 fall in May. Unemployment rate to hold at 5.8%. Market to watch: CAD crosses
3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (June, seasonally-adjusted): forecast to fall to 60.7 from 62.5. Market to watch: CAD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Glencore, the copper, nickel and iron ore mining specialist, announced it will initiate a $1bn share buy back scheme.
Stobart said that it had started the year ‘satisfactorily’, and has also announced a new five-year lease partnership with Ryanair.
Rolls-Royce has sold its commercial marine business to Norwegian firm Kongsberg for £500 million.
Eurazeo upgraded to buy at HSBC
ITV upgraded to buy at SocGen
Petra Diamonds raised to buy at Panmure Gordon & Co
Shell upgraded to buy at DZ Bank
Daily Mail downgraded to sell at SocGen
Direct Line cut to equal-weight at Barclays
Esure downgraded to underweight at Barclays
Pearson downgraded to hold at SocGen
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Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian markets fall for the fourth day and major currencies are generally trading in a tight range.
MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 0.5% whilst Japan's Nikkei (the Japan 225) loses 1%.
USD slightly softer going into US Initial Jobless Claims and FOMC minutes later today.
Gold is holding steady before Fed minutes, whilst copper and zine are stuck near their one year lows on trade woes.
Oil prices fall as Trump slams OPEC on twitter and blames the cartel for rising gas prices. This issue has been raised a number of times over the last few weeks as it could cause a major issue for the 'Trumphouse' going into the November midterms. Meanwhile China's duty on U.S. crude looms.
Goldman Sachs are still bullish on Commodities as a whole and believe trade war fears have been overdone. "All of these concerns have been oversold. Even soybeans, the most exposed of all assets to trade wars, is now a buy."
Clarification by the FCA on PPI compensation could means UK banks may have to add to the £45bn they’ve already set aside for claims.
FMOC later today.
Asian overnight: Asian markets traded lower once more, as market sentiment continues to suffer in anticipation of the impending Sino-US tariffs on $34 billion worth of goods. Yesterday’s tweet from Donald Trump calling for lower oil prices has had a knock on effect to the equity markets and tempered some of the gains seen through the week thus far.
UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the focus shifts from the UK to the US, with yesterday’s Independence Day meaning we will see markets on the other side of the Atlantic play catch up with Europe. Appearances from BoE governor Carney and ECB member Mersch will be the highlights for Europe, with markets more focused on the plethora of data points out of the US. ADP payrolls data, composite, manufacturing and services PMI figures in the afternoon pave the way for the latest FOMC minutes. Keep an eye out for the dollar for the impact of the days economic releases, while stock markets will be closely followed for how much they will follow yesterday’s lead in Europe.
South Africa: After yesterdays public holiday, US futures are trading flat this morning while Asian markets continue to find short term pressure lending itself to a flat to lower start on our local bourse this morning. The dollar is trading relatively flat while commodity prices, which have a relatively large impact on the local SA index, trade mostly lower ahead of the US implementation of trade tariffs on China. BHP Billiton is trading 0.54% lower in Australia furthering the notion that we will see a softer start on locally listed resource counters today. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.5% lower on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers this morning.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
1.15pm – US ADP employment report (June): expected to rise to 180K from 175K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
1.30pm – US initial jobless claims (w/e 30 June): forecast to be 221K from 227K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI (June): forecast to fall to 58.2 from 58.6. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
4pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 29 June): expected to see stockpiles fall by 1.6 million barrels. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
7pm – FOMC minutes: these will provide further insight into the Fed’s decision to raise rates, as well as the shift on the committee that resulted in the dot-plot suggesting four rate hikes in 2018, from the previous three. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
China’s ZTE has received a 30 day trade ban relief from Trump. The US provide a third of the components needed by the smartphone manufacturer who have seen a 60% decline in share price wiping off $11bn from the company valuation since the trade war talks.
Anglo American sees volatility spikes on take over rumours.
Anglo American Platinum Limited (SA) has accepted an offer from Royal Bafokeng Platinum Limited ("RBPlat") to purchase its 33% interest in the Bafokeng Rasimone Platinum Mine joint venture (“BRPM JV") for a total purchase consideration of R1.863 billion.
Associated British Foods said its full-year outlook was unchanged, as improvement at Primark is cancelled out by weakness in its sugar division. Group revenue for the 40 weeks to 23 June was up 3% overall, and 2% at actual exchange rates. Primark sales were up 6% on last year, but AB Sugar revenue was 17% lower.
Purplebricks suffered an adjusted operating loss of £21.3 million, despite strong growth in the UK and Australia. This compares to a £5.1 million loss in 2017.
Glencore has announced a $1 billion share buyback, which will run from today until the end of the year.
EasyJet carried 7.9 million passengers in June, up 2.3% from a year ago, while the load factor rose to 95.4% from 94.8%.
Aegon upgraded to buy at HSBC
Bauer upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Tullow upgraded to overweight at Barclays
Daimler upgraded to buy at Bankhaus Lampe
Hapag-Lloyd downgraded to neutral at Citi
Kappahl downgraded to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Munich Re downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
Soco downgraded to underperform at RBC
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Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian overnight: Another bearish session overnight saw Chinese and Hong Kong indices lead the decline, with the first round of tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect on Friday. The recent decline in the yuan was arrested, with strong dollar selling pressure from Chinese banks looking like intervention from the Chinese authorities. Australian data came in mixed, with a strong retail sales reading counteracted by a lower than expected trade balance figure. Meanwhile, the Chinese Caixin services PMI rose sharply, driving the measure to rise from 52.9 to 53.9.
UK, US and Europe: The services PMI theme looks set to continue, with European nations releasing their own version throughout the morning. The big focus will be upon the UK services PMI figure, with the release playing a key part in dictating GDP estimates for Q2. Meanwhile, the US markets are closed as the country celebrates Independence Day.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
9.30am – UK services PMI (June): expected to fall to 53 from 54. Markets to watch: FTSE 100/250, GBP crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Sainsbury’s said that sales rose 0.8% in Q1, and were up 0.2% on a like-for-like basis. Price cuts had helped to boost performance.
SIG reported a 0.6% rise in first-half revenue, with currency improvements offsetting bad weather. Revenue was flat on a like-for-like basis.
National Express has secured a €1 billion contract to operate buses in Morocco, with 500 buses carrying 109 million passengers a year across 61 routes.
Topps Tiles suffered a 2.3% drop in like-for-like sales in the 13 weeks to 1 July.
BN FP upgraded to outperform at RBC
GFT upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Petra Diamonds upgraded to outperform at RBC
Brunello Cucinelli downgraded to hold at Berenberg
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian overnight: Sharp declines overnight are pushing the bulls out the way and the overnight session looks to be paving the way for a bearish start to the week in Europe, with circa 2% losses across Japanese and Chinese markets. The Hang Seng market was closed for a bank holiday while the Australian ASX 200 managed to limit the losses. Trade wars are back on the agenda as a key concern for markets, with a European Commission statement against car tariffs making little difference to sentiment for now. Data wise, we saw the Japanese Tankan manufacturing survey fall from 24 to 21, while the Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI number moved slightly lower, to 51.0 (from 51.1).
UK, US and Europe: The manufacturing focus remains today, with a host of final manufacturing PMI readings from a host of eurozone countries leading into the initial UK figure for June. With Canadian markets on holiday, the focus is on the US, where once again it is the manufacturing surveys which take precedence.
South Africa: After strong gains on Friday, the local bourse looks set to open up weaker today after the Asian markets poor performance on Monday. Friday's gains can in part be attributed to quarter end window dressing, although the underlying market pressures of trade war concerns and a flight from emerging markets remain. A strengthening dollar is seeing precious metals, the rand, and oil trading lower this morning. BHP Billiton is trading 0.9% lower in Australia, suggestive of a softer start for local resource counters. The weaker rand is expected to weigh on local banking and retail counters on open.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
9.30am – UK mfg PMI (June): expected to fall to 53.5 from 54.4. Market to watch: GBP crosses
10am – eurozone unemployment rate (May): forecast to fall to 8.4% from 8.5%. Market to watch: EUR crosses
3pm – US ISM mfg PMI (June): expected to fall to 58.3 from 58.7. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Tesco has announced a strategic buying partnership with Carrefour, that will involve joint purchasing of own brand products and goods.
Meggitt upgraded annual revenue guidance, thanks to a stronger than forecast performance in Q2. Organic revenue growth for the year through December is expected to be 4-6% from 2-4%.
Aeroports de Paris raised to overweight at JPMorgan
Chargeurs upgraded to buy at AlphaValue
Cloetta upgraded to buy at SEB Equities
Novo Nordisk upgraded to outperform at Bernstein
Investec upgrade Capitec Holdings (SA) to buy with a target price of 103400c
Investec upgrade Impala Platinum (SA) to buy with a target price of 2500c
Eurofins Scientific cut to reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
Infineon downgraded to underweight at Barclays
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Expected index adjustments
Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 2nd July 2018. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect your positions, please take a look at the video.
NB: Special Divs are highlighted in orange
Special Dividends
You can see the special dividends listed below. Unfortunately we do not have granular insight on the effect on the index for the index in question, however the below maybe helpful for some. Please note the dates below are the stock adjustments in the underlying, whilst the index div adjustments are taken out the day before on the IG platform at the cash close.
How do dividend adjustments work?
As you know, constituent stocks of an index will periodically pay dividends to shareholders. When they do, the overall value of the index is effected, causing it to drop by a certain amount. Each week, we receive the forecast for the number of points any index is due to drop by, and we publish this for you. As dividends are scheduled, public events, it is important to remember that leveraged index traders can neither profit nor lose from such price movements.
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian overnight: A wildly varied session overnight saw losses for the likes of the Nikkei 225 and ASX 200 counterbalanced by strong gains in the Shenzhen composite (2%) and Hang Seng (1.3%). The euro gained sharply overnight, as an agreement at the EU summit over immigration was seem to appease hard line anti-immigration leaders, and crucially ease the pressure on Angela Merkel. On the data front, a raft of Japanese economic figures saw improved inflation, unemployment, industrial production, and housing starts.
UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the economic calendar looks to set up a busy day, with the release of the final UK GDP reading, alongside the flash eurozone CPI reading for June. With yesterday’s GDP reading from the US was revised lower from 2.2% to 2.0%, there is going to be of particular interest for this UK figure. Meanwhile, with the ECB heavily reliant upon the trajectory of inflation, traders should be watching out for the CPI figure as a driver of euro volatility. In the US session, watch out for the release of US personal income and spending, which will be hugely important given the influence of domestic consumption as a driver of US growth.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Serco said that it expects underlying trading profit for the first half to rise by 20%, but that revenue for the period would be around £1.35 billion, down from £1.51 billion a year earlier.
BAE Systems has won a $35 billion contract to provide nine new frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. Production is expected to begin in the early 2020s.
Allianz raised to overweight at JPMorgan
BAE upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
Swatch upgraded to buy at Citi
Ageas downgraded to hold at SocGen
Amer Sports downgraded to reduce at Inderes
Bpost cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley
Hunting cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley
Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
Asian overnight: A mixed session in overnight markets came after the White House pulled plans to restrict Chinese acquisition of US technology, helping ease trade war fears that continue to dominate market sentiment. Interestingly, we still saw Chinese stocks fall, with the Shenzhen and Shanghai composite indices trading within the red. Once again, we saw the Australian ASX 200 gain ground amid a resurgence for crude prices. The Yen was largely flat over the session, with a weak retail sales reading (0.6% from 1.5%) offset by demand for the haven currency. Meanwhile, the RBNZ decided to keep rates unchanged as expected, with no shift in rates expected for some time yet.
UK, US and Europe: The focus for the European session will be the latest EU summit, where Brexit is likely to remain one of the key topics of discussion, alongside immigration issues which are a thorn in the side of Angela Merkel. The US session sees the final US GDP reading released alongside unemployment claims. However, for the most part markets are likely to instead look to Donald Trump and China for a lead on market bias.
South Africa: We are seeing a firming US dollar and US Treasury Yields trading while emerging market currencies and commodities (excluding oil) under pressure once again. In turn we are expecting a lower open on the Jse Top 40 Index this morning. Tencent HOldings is 0.3% lower on the Hang Seng, suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton on the other hand has extended short term gains which is expectant of a positive start for its local listing in South Africa.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
10am – eurozone business confidence (June): forecast to fall to 1.2 from 1.5. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1pm – German CPI (June, preliminary): expected to fall to 1.9% from 2.2% YoY. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US GDP (Q1, final), initial jobless claims (w/e 23 June): growth expected to be 1.2% YoY and 0.1% QoQ. Jobless claims to rise to 219K from 218K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
JD Sports said that it continued to be confident about the outlook for the current financial year. Further expansion, with emphasis on new international stores, suggest the group is on track to meet full-year expectations.
Greene King reported an 11.2% fall in adjusted pre-tax profit for the full year, to £243 million, in line with forecasts.
BP is to acquire Chargemaster, the UK’s largest charging network for electric cars. It operates more than 6,500 charging points across the UK.
Tullow Oil said that it continued to perform well in 2018, with first-half production averaging 87,400 barrels per day, in line with forecasts.
Wilson Bayly Holme - Ovcon Ltd has said that Lower activity levels persist within local (Africa) building markets, particularly in Gauteng. Performance from the Byrne Group in London was in line with expectations over the second six months.Construction and materials saw strong competition and aggressive pricing persisted during the second half of the year which combined with an increase in non-payment by contractors due to the challenging environment.
BP upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
Infineon upgraded to buy at DZ Bank
KAZ Minerals upgraded to outperform at BMO
OMV upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Suez downgraded to hold at Berenberg
Summit Therapeutics cut to hold at Panmure Gordon & Co
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Chinese markets hit with yuan slipping to 6 month low and stock market and leading index falling.
Oil sees significant positive price action as US pressures allies on Iranian crude oil.
Trump hits out at Harley Davidson motorcycles for planning a move of U.S shores on the back of trade tariffs. 'Trading the trade wars' video by IGTV and Bryan Noble is today's featured video below.
Gold slips as investors turn to rival safe haven assets.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrency consolidating at the support, however no signs or reasons for a bounce as presence.
Shares in Tesco and Sainsburys slide on loss of market share.
Asian Overnight: Chinese and Hong Kong indices led Asian markets lower overnight, with a sharp drop in the Shenzhen composite and Hang Seng providing the stand out underperformers amid largely flat trade in Japan and Australia. Rising oil prices provided a boost to energy stocks, with the US putting pressure on other countries to end the purchase of Iranian crude. In particular, this rise in crude prices helped shift the Australian ASX 200 out of the red, with the energy sector rising 1.3%.
UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the European session looks likely to focus on the Bank of England once again, coming off the back of last week’s rate decision. An appearance from Carney accompanies the latest BoE financial stability report. The US session will look towards core durable goods orders for their lead, with the latest trade balance data also taking on an important role given recent disagreements over trade. The crude market is also back in focus, with the latest US inventories due out later in the day. NZD traders should also be aware of the latest RBNZ rate decision tonight.
When it comes to the Trump trade war tariffs JPMorgan economist David Hensley has stated that they "remain of the view that a large scale "trade war" remains a low probability though the odds of it happening appear to have increased". US Futures and Asian equity markets are trading lower this morning while the dollar and US treasury yields trade firmer. The trade war rhetoric generally continues, although US President Donald Trump looks to have softened his stance slightly saying that he may look to a less confrontational approach with China.
South Africa: Precious and base metals trade mostly lower this morning while the rand is slightly softer against the majors. Oil prices have gained post the OPEC decision to raise output as well as supply disruptions in Canada. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.2% lower on the Hang Seng suggestive of a softer start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 1.8% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for the local listing thereof.
Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)
1.30pm – US durable goods orders (May): expected to rise 0.2% from -1.7% MoM, while excluding transportation orders forecast to rise 0.5% from 0.9%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses
3pm – US pending home sales (May): forecast to rise 0.1% from -1.3% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses
3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 22 June): stockpiles expected to fall by 5.1 million barrels after falling 5.9 million barrels a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI
Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar
Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades
Inmarsat drops over 12% as Eutelsat, the company who were poised for a take over bid, back out just hours after their initial interest as reported in the IG Community EMEA morning briefing yesterday.
Whitbread reported a 3.2% rise in Q1 sales, thanks to new hotel capacity and additional Costa stores. However, sales were down 1.3% in the UK on a like-for-like basis. Progress continues on the Costa de-merger, with progress on core infrastructure and efficiency work.
Ultra Electronics downgraded its first-half profit guidance due to cost overruns at its US defence unit. Expectations for full-year operating profit has been cut by £4-6 million.
Bunzl said that it expected revenue for the first half to be 11% higher at constant exchange rates, while spending on acquisitions so far this year has been £105 million.
Global Credit Ratings (“GCR”) has affirmed the national scale ratings of A-(ZA) and A1-(ZA) to Transaction Capital Limited (SA) in the long term and short term respectively, with the outlook accorded as Stable.
Deutsche Bank maintains buy rating on Vodacom (SA) but reduces target to 15000c
Adecco upgraded to outperform at RBC
Sainsbury upgraded to overweight at Barclays
Carnival Plc upgraded to buy at Berenberg
Petrofac upgraded to buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
BMW downgraded to reduce at AlphaValue
Gima TT downgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Rubis downgraded to hold at Berenberg
ICG Enterprise Trust downgraded to hold at Jefferies
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Please note: This information has been prpared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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