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      10/06/21 10:53

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    • EUR/USD and GBP/USD edge up while USD/JPY falters at ¥145.00 again A pause in the dollar rally sees USD/JPY stuck below recent highs, but both the euro and sterling have made gains in early trading against the greenback.    Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 October 2022  EUR/USD rebound continues After falling to a twenty-year low last month, the euro continues to rebound against the US dollar with EUR/USD. This still looks very much like a counter-trend bounce that sees the price head back to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), currently $1.1018 and then begins to falter. This would be in line with previous bounces since April, all of which have found it impossible to hold above the 50-day SMA. This move could see the price head back to $1.01. Further targets lie at $1.02 and then $1.0374. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD recovers $1.13 The GBP/USD continues to defy the doomsters with a recovery above $1.13. Its own counter-trend bounce remains intact, and if previous bounces are any guide there is still some potential for upside, even if it only reaches the 50-day SMA. Like EUR/USD, the pound is still making lower highs and lower lows against the dollar, with the previous peak at $1.176 marking out the initial target for this bounce. Both stochastics and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) have room to move up to support this move, but selling the rallies still appears to be the approach here for this downtrending market, although it looks like for now there is still a desire to push the pair higher in the short-term. Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY stalls below ¥145.00 It does look like ¥145.00 is the ceiling in USD/JPY for the time being – repeated attempts to break higher have come to naught, despite the continued strength of the US dollar. Indeed, it is perhaps precisely that we need a pullback in order for the trend to revive. The pair rallied hard from the August-lows, and now sits at some distance from the 50-day SMA (currently ¥139.15). A pullback towards this level might ‘clear the air’, create a higher low and provide a springboard for fresh bullish momentum. Source: ProRealTime
    • FTSE, DAX and Nasdaq breaking higher as bulls return to the fold The FTSE, DAX, and Nasdaq are on the rise, as improved market sentiment helps drive stocks higher.    Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 October 2022  FTSE 100 rises back into key intraday resistance zone The FTSE 100 has enjoyed a relatively upbeat start to the week, with the index pushing higher after a decline into the 6763 support level (March low). This rebound has taken price up into the confluence of trendline and swing-high resistance, with the ability to break up through this point bringing greater confidence of a protracted period of upside. Should such a move come to fruition, we would be looking at a potential wider retracement of the sell-off from 7515. For now, keep a close eye out for a break higher from here to signal the beginning of a more positive period for this index. To the downside, a break below 6763 would be required to signal the beginning of another major leg lower. Source: ProRealTime DAX breaks through resistance as the bulls regain influence The DAX has been fighting back this week, with the gains seen yesterday bringing the index up through the first swing-high of 12138. The subsequent resistance level of 12322 has been broken overnight, with price now rising into the confluence of the 27 September high and July low of 12432. As such, we are building a more positive picture for the near-term, with a rise through 12432 bringing greater confidence that we will see the index retrace the wider sell-off from 13571. That coincides with the wider descending trendline that has been respected over the course of the year thus far. Source: ProRealTime Nasdaq on the rise from key support The Nasdaq has been on the rise since the Monday gap lower, with the initial move below 11036 being swiftly recovered. That 11036 level represents the bottom established in June, with yesterday’s early decline bringing about a two-year low. However, we are now utilising this low as a potential area of support to push higher, with price having moved up through the 11298 swing-high. We have another notable swing-high at 11548 worth watching, with a break above that point signalling the beginning of a wider rebound for this index. To the downside, a move back below the recent low of 10887 would be required to bring about a renewed bearish short-term view for the index. Source: ProRealTime
    • Brent crude oil and gold rally on falling US dollar and US natural gas prices Outlook on Brent crude oil, gold and US natural gas as US dollar sees steepest 4-day loss since July 2020 amid weaker than expected US ISM manufacturing data. Source: Bloomberg   Forex Commodities Brent Crude Gold United States Petroleum  Axel Rudolph | Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 04 October 2022  Brent crude oil probes resistance on OPEC+ supply cut rumours Brent crude oil’s recovery from its $82.55 September low is grappling with the breached 2-year uptrend line which, because of inverse polarity, now acts as a resistance line as rumours abound that OPEC+ will cut output by more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) at its meeting in Vienna on Wednesday. This coupled with a weaker US dollar having witnessed its steepest 4-day loss since July 2020, helped the price of Brent crude oil recover by over 7% from its late September low. Good resistance sits between the July, August lows and the 21 September high at $91.08 to $92.53. Further up the mid-September high, 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and five-month downtrend line can be spotted at $94.42 to $95.19. Slips should find support near the early September low at $86.99 with further minor support being found at the 30 September trough at $84.93. Source: ProRealTime Gold surges to 3-week high The gold price’s 5% rally off its September 2 ½ year $1,616 per troy ounce low on a rapidly depreciating US dollar has taken it to above its $1,681 to $1,689 resistance zone which entails the July and early September lows. In doing so it has left its August-to-October downtrend channel and is seen heading towards the 55-day SMA and 12 September high at $1,723 to $1,735. Any short-term retracement is likely to find initial support in the $1,689 to $1,681 zone. Further down lies Monday’s low at $1,660. Source: Bloomberg US natural gas futures slip to 2 ½ month low US natural gas futures dropped around 4% on Monday, hitting a 2 ½ month low as the US ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 50.9 in September, its lowest growth in factory activity since the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic as companies adjust to potential future lower demand. On Monday the front month contract slid by over 6% to $6.370 on weak demand, to below the 200-day SMA at $6.623, another daily chart close below which would push the July low at $5.330 back to the fore. On the way down minor support can be spotted at $5.955, the 12 July low. Resistance above the 200-day SMA comes in between the 27 and 29 September highs at $7.147 to $7.236. Source: ProRealTime
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