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      10/06/21 10:53

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    • EUR/USD and GBP/USD drop back while USD/JPY bounce stalls The dollar continues to recover following Friday’s non-farm payrolls, pushing down EUR/USD and GBP/USD while lifting USD/JPY.  Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 07 February 2023 EUR/USD edges higher off 50-day SMA A revival of dollar strength has seen the uptrend in EUR/USD take a knock. The price has retreated swiftly over the past three sessions towards the rising 50-day simple moving average (SMA), setting up a possible higher low if a rebound develops. This then reinforces the bullish view and puts a move back to $1.10 into play. Continued losses below the 50-day SMA would then target the early January low around $1.05. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD decline slows Price action here with GBP/USD has seen the pair drop back below the 50-day SMA, and with a second failure to break the $1.24 level in two months now in a more bearish view may start to prevail. If the 200-day SMA is lost then the January low around $1.187 is possible support, followed up by $1.18 itself. Below this a more bearish view begins to take hold, and suggests a reversal of the gains made since the end of September. Source: ProRealTime USD/JPY drops back from 50-day SMA The week began with fresh gains for USD/JPY after Friday’s recovery, pushing back to the 50-day SMA for the first time since November. The steady move lower since November has not seen much in the way of a rebound, so now sellers will wait to see how far this bounce goes. Moves higher in December stalled around ¥134.40, so if this can be cleared then the 200-day SMA comes into view. A reversal back below ¥131.00 could suggest that a lower high has been created, and that a move towards the January lows around ¥127.70 is now in progress. Source: ProRealTime
    • WTI rallies while gold holds and aluminium slips Outlook on WTI crude oil, gold and aluminium amid Turkish earthquake woes. Source: Bloomberg        Axel Rudolph FSTA | Senior Financial Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 07 February 2023  WTI crude oil recovers on supply concerns WTI crude oil is seen bouncing off Monday’s low at $72.50 per barrel for a second day in a row on supply concerns following the temporary precautionary shut down until the end of the week of the Turkish Ceyhan oil terminal, which can export up to a million barrels of crude per day, after a major earthquake befell the region and on optimism regarding China’s demand. Over the weekend International Energy Agency (IEA) executive director, Fatih Birol, said that China’s economic recovery could be stronger than expected which should boost demand for oil by the world’s largest importer. It should also be noted that the European ban on seaborne imports and price caps for Russian oil products came into effect on Sunday. The 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $77.59 is now in focus, together with the mid-January low and 3 February high at $78.16 to $78.45 which may offer resistance. If overcome, however, a rise back towards the upper end of the December-to-February sideways trading band around the $83.00 mark may once again ensue. Good support can now be spotted between the January and current February lows at $72.64 to $72.50, with further support sitting at the $70.25 December trough. Source: ProRealTime Gold hovers above its one-month low at $1,862 Last Thursday’s rise in the price of gold to a new nine-month high at $1,959 per troy ounce was swiftly followed by a bearish engulfing day on the candlestick chart on Friday amid much stronger than expected US employment data which pointed to more Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and pushed the implied fed funds and bank rates up by about 10 basis points. The gold price on Friday thus dropped to a one-month low at $1,862, above which it has been hovering in very low volatility since. This level is likely to soon give way, though with the 55-day SMA at $1,843 then being eyed. Further down sits the $1,833 to $1,825 support area which contains the mid-to-late December highs and the early January low. Resistance lies at the $1,897 to $1,900 mid-to-late January lows. Source: ProRealTime Aluminium trades at near one-month low Aluminium’s 5% slide from last week’s high on the back of a stronger US dollar has taken the metal to a near one-month low, close to the 55- and 200-day SMAs at $2,478 to $2,476 per metric ton which may offer support this week. Good resistance can be spotted between the mid- and late January lows at $2,555 and more significant resistance between the January and last week’s highs at $2,648 to $2,678. Source: ProRealTime
    • Record profits, another share buyback, and in improved outlook all helped BP trade near 3½ year highs.    Jeremy Naylor | Writer, London | Publication date: Tuesday 07 February 2023  Inevitably this has led to more calls for windfall taxes, but in an economy where taxation is already high, any further uplift will start discussions within the company to be registered elsewhere. BP records record earnings Another big oil company, another set of record earnings. This time it's the London- listed BP, as the oil giant has seen its shares rise three and three quarter percent out of the gate this morning as a result of the news that's come through where the company has said that profits have doubled to a record $27.7 billion lifted by a surge in energy prices seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the fourth quarter. Underlying replacement cost profit, this is the company's definition of net income, reached $4.8 billion, compared with forecasts of $5 billion profit in a company-provided a survey of analysts, so that fell short of expectations. But the company has announced a further $2.75 billion in buybacks and proposing a dividend of 6.61 cents per share. There are now more calls coming through from many within the green lobby and those outside as well, suggesting that these big oil companies should have further taxes given to them on their excess windfall profits because of this rise in prices. The problem with that is that we've been hearing a lot of flexibility within the industry in suggesting perhaps maybe that if BP is faced with further tax rises, it might actually possibly take its business offshore. So that could well be a bit of a headwind. Ironically, these oil companies are now benefiting from a lack of investment over the last few years to pacify the green lobby, which has managed to persuade big oil to invest in renewables. And this has led to a lack of new oil coming onto the market, which has supported prices. Share price chart Let's take a look at the BP share price, because this is the long-term chart. We're not too far away from the recent highs - well highs we saw around about three years ago at 508 pence, currently trading at 496.1. The significance of that 508 is that it was the highs we saw back in January 2020. And if it tips over that, we’re then at levels not seen since November 2019. So you can see there's an upward impetus. This red candle here was the date in which we saw Shell's record profits coming through at $40 billion. Now, that was a day when we saw negativity to the oil markets generally because of those numbers. But this today has seen this big uplift in shares. And if it closes at these levels, it'll be the highest close we've seen on the BP share price since November last year. So clearly, investors liking what they're seeing, but holding guard until the government establishes whether or not it wants to increase the windfall tax, which they said could well put pressure on boards to discuss possibly moving some, if not all, of its operations offshore. And that would be a tragedy to the UK economy.
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