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Question
matt_sb_101
I am interested in taking long positions on ETF forwards, but would like some comfort from IG around how the forward prices are calculated.
I understand that forward prices are essentially equal to the CASH PRICE plus FINANCE COST minus DIVIDENDS (simplifying somewhat).
Accumulation ETFs
Accumulation ETFs take dividends out of the picture and so are easier to analyse. When I do so, the finance cost AER is coming out differently depending on whether I'm looking at March, June or September forward contracts. The AER is very slightly lower for Sept (~5.6%) versus June (~5.65%) versus March (~5.7%). How does IG calculate them? I understand that IG builds in something like a 0.5% pa premium as its cost of offering the spread bet facility, but what is that on top of? Where could I look up the underlying interest rate?
Distributing ETFs
In the case of a distributing ETF, how can dividends be accurately factored in? Isn't this ultimately a guess as no one can be sure what will be distributed over the next X months? I would really like to be able to trade distributing ETF forwards because that opens up a much wider variety of ETFs however I don't feel confident that I understand the calculation and it means there's scope for hidden costs.
In my view IG should be as up-front about all of this as it is about overnight funding costs (which are illustrated with formulas / examples etc.)
Matt
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