Jump to content

Natural Gas Commodity Elliottwave Technical Analysis


Recommended Posts

Posted

Natural Gas Elliottwave Analysis
Mode - Impulsive
Structure - Impulse Wave
Position - Wave (ii) of 5
Direction - Wave (iii) of 5
Details:  Wave (ii) is completed and the price is now in wave (iii) and expected to extend to 1.35 or below. Wave 4 invalidation is around 2.00.

The journey of Natural Gas embarked on a bearish impulse wave pattern on August 22, 2022. Since then, the trend has persistently carved lower lows without revisiting previous highs, emblematic of the steadfast bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. Despite a minor bounce, the commodity has struggled to breach the low set on February 20, 2024. It's unlikely that this modest recovery will dissuade sellers from reentering the market. Ultimately, the price is anticipated to breach that low, signaling a continuation of the bearish trend. In today's blog post, we aim to scrutinize the extent of the bearish trend and forecast when a substantial recovery might materialize.

 

On the daily chart, the bearish trend since August 22, 2022, is identified as the 5th wave - circled as blue wave 5. This 5th wave is further subdivided into 5 waves, characteristic of an impulse wave. Presently, the price is within wave 5 of (3) of blue wave 5. However, wave 5 has yet to conclude - a prerequisite being a breach of the low recorded on February 20, 2024 (wave 3 low). This wave count remains valid as long as the price remains below the low of wave (1) (2.236).

 

Transitioning to the H4 timeframe, Wave 4 of (3) terminated around the 2.00 major level on March 5, 2024. Subsequently, wave 5 of (3) commenced, expected to finalize either as an impulse or an ending diagonal. The retracement observed from March 25 occurred at a critical supply zone, eliciting a downward reaction in price. Consequently, wave (iii) is currently unfolding, poised for confirmation upon a break below the low of wave (i) at 1.589. There's still ample room for bears to exert downward pressure on this commodity. The medium-term target for the culmination of blue wave 5 is projected to be 1.00, assuming price action unfolds as anticipated. In summary, the bearish trend remains steadfast and could persist below 2.00 in the near term. Traders should remain vigilant and adjust their strategies in line with the evolving market dynamics.

 

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo

Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!

 

Commodities24(1).thumb.png.4f374bf58ced4dfa31ab4fe806692e5a.png

Commodities24.thumb.png.45b6e31b6356284ec513ef7dd471c206.png

 

 

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • image.png

  • Posts

    • Hi there, I noticed that I do not get the same margin relief using a Guaranteed Stop Loss Order (GSLO) when trading Bitcoin. My max risk here given where my GSLO is and my ticket size is USD10,063 * 0.5 = USD5,031.5 Instead, my margin requirement is the same as if I had no SLO or GSLO at all. Why is there no margin relief?
    • GBPAUD Elliott Wave Analysis - Trading Lounge British Pound/Australian Dollar (GBPAUD) Day Chart GBPAUD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Orange Wave 2 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Direction Next Higher Degrees: Orange Wave 3 Details: The analysis indicates that orange wave 1 appears completed, with orange wave 2 currently in progress. Wave Cancel Invalidation Level: 1.92313 Analysis Overview: The GBPAUD daily chart highlights a counter-trend movement using the Elliott Wave methodology. The wave mode is classified as corrective, focusing on the development of orange wave 2 within the broader context of navy blue wave 3. This setup represents a temporary pullback within the larger upward trend. Current Wave Context: Orange wave 1 seems to have concluded, paving the way for orange wave 2, a corrective movement. This phase involves price retracements within the broader structure, setting up for a potential transition into orange wave 3, an impulsive phase. Invalidation Level: The wave count becomes invalid if the price breaches 1.92313, requiring a re-evaluation of the wave structure and overall trend analysis. Corrective Phase Implications: This stage in the Elliott Wave sequence represents a consolidation period within a larger bullish pattern. The ongoing correction in orange wave 2 lays the groundwork for the anticipated upward move of orange wave 3. Trading Insights: Traders can leverage this phase by monitoring signals that suggest the completion of orange wave 2. Anticipating the subsequent upward trend, aligning strategies with market dynamics can yield better results. Key levels within the corrective structure provide critical decision points for trade setups. By understanding the wave dynamics and the broader market behavior, participants can enhance their trading decisions, optimizing for the upcoming orange wave 3 phase.   British Pound/Australian Dollar (GBPAUD) 4-Hour Chart GBPAUD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis Function: Counter Trend Mode: Corrective Structure: Orange Wave 2 Position: Navy Blue Wave 3 Direction Next Higher Degrees: Orange Wave 3 Details: The analysis indicates that orange wave 1 appears completed, and orange wave 2 is currently unfolding. Wave Cancel Invalidation Level: 1.92313 Analysis Overview: The GBPAUD 4-hour chart illustrates a counter-trend movement identified using the Elliott Wave framework. The wave mode is corrective, focusing on the development of orange wave 2, which is nested within the broader structure of navy blue wave 3. This pattern highlights a temporary pullback amid the larger upward trend. Current Wave Context: Orange wave 1 is likely completed, transitioning into orange wave 2, a corrective phase. This stage represents a retracement, preparing for the next impulsive move into orange wave 3. Invalidation Level: The wave structure becomes invalid if the price breaches the 1.92313 level, requiring a re-assessment of the wave count and overall market structure. Corrective Phase Implications: The ongoing correction within orange wave 2 is a typical consolidation phase in the larger bullish wave formation. This phase allows the market to realign before resuming its upward momentum with orange wave 3. Trading Insights: Traders should monitor for signals indicating the completion of orange wave 2 to capitalize on the anticipated upward movement. Leveraging key levels within the corrective structure can aid in formulating strategic entries and exits. Understanding the Elliott Wave sequence enhances market interpretation, offering a clearer path for aligning trading decisions with future trends. By identifying key wave dynamics and recognizing potential turning points, market participants can prepare for the next impulsive phase, ensuring strategies align effectively with the broader trend. Technical Analyst : Malik Awais Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here!  
    • ASX: ASX LIMITED – ASX Elliott Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge Greetings, Our Elliott Wave analysis today updates the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) ASX LIMITED – ASX. We see ASX LIMITED possibly pushing lower with wave ((ii))-navy, and then wave ((iii))-navy could move higher. ASX: ASX LIMITED – ASX 1D Chart (Semilog Scale) Analysis Function: Major (Minor degree, gray) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((ii))-navy of Wave 3-grey Details: Wave ((ii))-navy could be pushing lower, targeting around 62.87. After the ((ii))-navy wave finds support levels at lower levels, then most likely the ((iii))-navy wave will return soon. And they can go long when the price gets the support tested at Medium Level 65.00. Invalidation point: 56.54 ASX: ASX LIMITED – ASX 4-Hour Chart Analysis Function: Major trend (Minor degree, grey) Mode: Motive Structure: Impulse Position: Wave ((ii))-navy of Wave 3-grey Details: Wave ((i))-navy has completed five-waves, and wave ((ii))-navy is moving lower, usually after Diagonals, I expect a quick serious decline, so the next target could be around 62.87. Invalidation point: 56.54 Conclusion: Our analysis, forecast of contextual trends, and short-term outlook for ASX: ASX LIMITED – ASX aim to provide readers with insights into the current market trends and how to capitalize on them effectively. We offer specific price points that act as validation or invalidation signals for our wave count, enhancing the confidence in our perspective. By combining these factors, we strive to offer readers the most objective and professional perspective on market trends. Technical Analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation). Source : Tradinglounge.com get trial here! #ASX #ASX #ASXStocks #Stocks #ElliottWave #TradingLounge  
×
×
  • Create New...
us