Gold (XAUUSD) Commodity Elliott Wave Technical Analysis

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Gold Elliott Wave Analysis 
Function - Trend
Mode - Impulse
Structure - Impulse wave
Position -Wave 4
Direction - Wave 5
Details - Wave 5 still struggles around the Fibonacci support zone. A diagonal seems to be developing for blue wave ‘c’ of 4. Still needs a sharp break out of the diagonal for wave 5 to begin. Invalidation remains at 2245.17.

Gold’s price trajectory stands as a resolute testament to bullish sentiment, with a clear resurgence in the long-term uptrend since its nadir in September 2024, bottoming out at 1616. Since this pivotal low, the precious metal has demonstrated remarkable resilience, marking a gain exceeding 40%. Yet, a correction in this bullish trajectory commenced on April 12, 2024. Noteworthy is the corrective nature of this pullback, hinting that it is merely a transient pause before the commodity recommences its ascent to new highs.

 

Delving into the daily chart through an Elliott wave lens, the 1616 bottom signifies the completion of the supercycle degree wave (IV). The ensuing rally represents wave (V) of the same degree, unfolding in an impulse fashion. The initiation of wave III of (IV) from the October 2023 low at 1810 has progressed in a robust impulse, presently navigating the intermediate wave (3) within primary wave 3 (blue circled). Therefore, ample runway remains before the culmination of wave (V). Simplifying our analysis, attention is best directed towards the intermediate wave (3), currently undergoing a corrective phase labeled as wave 4, projected to find support within the 2315.5-2246 Fibonacci zone.

 

Turning to the H4 chart, two potential corrective scenarios emerge:

 

1st Scenario

 

The first scenario illustrates a zigzag pattern originating from the 2432 peak. Here, blue wave ‘c’ completes an ending diagonal, with confirmation of bullish momentum anticipated at 2353 for the onset of wave 4. However, this diagonal would be invalidated if prices dip below 2258.9.

 

2nd Scenario

 

Conversely, the second scenario portrays a double zigzag structure unfolding from the 2432 peak, possibly extending to the 38.2-50% Fibonacci retracement range of wave 3 at 2246-2191 before wave 4 concludes and wave 5 initiates.

 

In summation, while Gold’s price trajectory remains bullish, it currently experiences a corrective setback. A breach above 2353 would favor the first scenario, whereas a breach below 2258.8 would nullify it, ushering in the second scenario, projected to find support within the 2246-2191 zone. After wave 4, the resumption of wave 5 should propel prices to fresh highs.

 

 

 

 

Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
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