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Eurobonus

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Eurobonus last won the day on March 17

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  1. Another 6 million plus unemployed in the US. Most economists forecast well over 15% unemployment rate by the end of this month which is worse than the Depression of 1929. But the markets are soaring. Is there something I am missing?
  2. It seems as if people think that the stimulus packages are free. At some point in time, it has to be paid for one way or another. Either through budget cuts or most likely accelerating inflation once it takes hold. Furthermore, once I have extrapolated out the cancelled dividends, cessation of share buybacks and the massive increases in unemployment, I just can't see how the markets can be anywhere near the levels that they are right now - S&P 500 close to 2,800. It seems as if investors believe that there will be a quick V-shaped recovery. I sincerely hope that this is so, but my brain says that this is wishful thinking. Be interesting to hear your thoughts on this.
  3. There is just one major issue. Countries which have been in lockdown reopening their borders will import cases like what has happened in China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. Japan is expected to call a National Emergency very soon. So how can the global economy recover quickly as 2nd and 3rd wave spikes will occur. Any chance of travel picking up to anywhere near pre-Wuhan virus pandemic? I certainly can't see that the global economy can recover quickly.
  4. Markets are cruising upwards for no apparent reason, totally ignoring the growing unemployment rates across the world and business failures. Thus, ignoring all fundamentals. Extrapolate out share buybacks and cancellation of dividends and stock markets would be much lower than what it was pre-Covid19 bear market. I just can't see why the markets are rebounding unless some have inside knowledge of a vaccine or cure in the pipeline in the very near future. Anyone has a rational argument for the rebound in the stock markets?
  5. I cannot see that the global economy will have a fast recovery. I can only see a depression looming unless a vaccine is quickly developed. This is the first time in a long time that the US has been directly affected by a major negative event (9/11 was localised). With the US slowing down, there is no other economy that will be able to create the demand required to get us a fast recovery. China's domestic demand is not large enough and Chinese personal debt was going through the roof even before the virus pandemic. How will the world and the global economy be once this pandemic subsides? I think a very changed society and traditional retail will be one the worst sufferers. Also with all this money printing, is there a risk of hyperinflation in the long term? Well, gonna buy a couple of KGs of gold just as insurance and not for investment per se. Also think property prices will come under the cosh so sitting on cash will enable you to buy distressed properties as getting loans will be hard for many. I am reevaluating my log term investment strategy to take into account the changing environment.
  6. I personally think that there is no chance that there will be a V shaped recovery. Looking at the latest unemployment figures, I foresee a prolonged recession if not even a depression as the shock affects both the supply side and reduced demand. Without a strong demand recovery, the economy will be very slow to recover.
  7. I am not a pensioner but worried about those who draw pensions. Just look at the white pensioners in Zimbabwe and what happened to them when there was hyperinflation. Their savings became more or less worthless over night and their pensions barely covered the cost of a loaf of bread.
  8. With so many companies slashing or cancelling their dividends, what will happen to pensions? There is no way pension funds can keep paying out old pension levels with such reduced returns from their assets. Also, won't this keep pressure on equities from rising?
  9. It seems as if several US Senators and government officials started selling their equities late January and beginning of February after briefings about Covid-19. So US government already predicted a severe pandemic hitting the US but Trump kept insisting that the virus was not so serious and all under control.
  10. And now on SKY News, they are warning of future HYPERINFLATION. That's what I am worried about. Seriously considering buying a few KGs of gold as insurance.
  11. I am sure a lot of rich people have lost a lot. I know a US hedge fund guy who has lost $115 million and essentially broke. Two ex-Goldman Sachs traders who set up their own fund have had to close it. Think most will pay in one way or another.
  12. I strongly believe that there will be tax relief as well as delayed tax payments to alleviate cash flows. But it seems people believe that the government has an endless amount of money available or can print unlimited amounts of money. However, there is always a cost and someone always has to pay. The measures have to be made but I am just worried about the medium to long term consequences.
  13. Cause I am in self quarantine and nothing better to do. But my big positions I execute via Credit Suisse. They provide me with all the tools - shorting, options, futures, mini futures etc. IG I do for fun.
  14. You are really an arrogant know it all. You make a lot of assumptions based on your prejudice and arrogance. I have a BSC in Economics from the LSE and a MSc in Finance from the London Business School. I started my career with Deutsche Bank, been CFO for an international company, Associate Director of Finance for a company managing well into the teens of billions of pounds in real estate assets. So yeah your assumption that I have just graduated is probably correct dmedin. Furthermore, you don't remember 1987 and the inflationary pressures afterwards?
  15. The bank bailout primarily only really led to inflation in the stock market as evidenced by the subdued inflation. This will be different if money is just handed out as it will then also fuel increase in demand without any increase in productivity. That will just fuel inflation in the real economy.
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