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StormChaser

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About StormChaser

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  1. Here's a pretty shoddy simulation with DAX including slippage. Bank would probably need to be ~ £4k. Return ~ 20%. This system works for 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, averaging £1k p/a with a £1/pip bet. Doesn't work for 2011. Five out of six isn't bad (it's a winning proposition on that basis). 2011 price action has very special characteristics for which the system could be tuned. Having that information now, rather than as a future live discovery, is very beneficial. The system meets other ideal characteristics. Purely order based. Stateless. Could be run on the most simple of automated broker platforms. Executes server side rather than client side so eliminates client latency issues. People who are trading have their shelves lined with statistics and programming books. Their TA books are most likely being used as door stops. Open your mind to the possibilities, and to the fact that it is a difficult hill to climb. Drawing lines on charts has absolutely no purpose whatsoever. There are no handouts here. I'm not running this live, rather working on it. I have a couple of large open plays in progress and they are not day trades, but multi-year trades, with potentially very large payouts. I posted on KMR a while back; 30% up in two months with a current price target of 460p (versus 240p current). AEX still pending.
  2. P.S. Who said anyone needs to day trade. One of the fundamental killers is people looking for trades that just aren't there. If you can cut your way through the intraday noise in foreign exchange or indices, good luck with that.
  3. The reason you won't succeed is because your attitude is defeatist from the outset. You've already packed it in and determined you cannot succeed. You cannot succeed at betting. If you treat this as a business, you just /might/ have some hope. You are probably just one of the 90% though, by your own admission.
  4. "Is it possible to make technically 'good' trades and yet still lose money?" Yes, entirely possible. Everything about trading is about taking the losses with the wins. The goal is that the latter exceed the former. This is about Alpha (Edge) and R:R. If you have positive Alpha and Equal (or better) R:R you should make money with minimal draw down. Here's the crunch. Nobody is ever going to hand you positive Alpha. You have to learn/earn it. You could try to buy training but 99% of people selling training are people who can't trade so ... one of the things you often see with sold systems is they have large draw-down. That is not in the desirable feature set of a good system. It suggests curve fitting in machine learning approaches. I'll give you a tip though. The market is BIG. Even among those machines and algorithms there are still /multiple/ edges. You might consider doing nothing, and punting for pips per day, or really learning something and putting together a plan for getting 10% annually and possibly compounding. If it takes 7 years of study in a college, with experts, to become a doctor and earn a six figure salary, how long do you think it will take to become an expert trader with no help whatsoever. Is the money sitting out there just waiting for you to take it?
  5. If you want to make money drawing lines, start a road marking business. Every line someone draws on a chart is subjective and therefore mainly random. Every indicator has multiple parameters and they are all of lagging, subjective, and random. If there is one indicator worth putting on a chart it is probably P/S/R. Other than that, the thing you need to look at is price action and momentum. Simple question. You place a trade with equal R:R (less spread) but you have the (local) direction right? You win or lose? Did RSI help with that? Doubtful.
  6. Why M1? Surely it excludes a lot of information? If you get more granular data you can still work out your own M1 whilst testing to see if anything in sub-M1 data invalidates your thesis.
  7. This is a chart you would never buy, right? Unless you knew the reason for the decline is because of delays issuing a licence upon which a farm in is contingent and the licence is expected to be issued during H2. Unfortunately not available via the IG SB/CFD platform. You'll have to buy the real thing.
  8. There's a couple of straight forward points here: (1) If you don't trust your broker don't trade with them. (2) When asking if there are stop hunts, don't ask if it's IG doing a stop hunt, ask if it's the market. Unless you see the IG price differing somewhat from the market it isn't IG's doing. Do a bit of research on Google on this; there are some seasoned traders who can verify that institutions know precisely the psyche of retail traders and will play it. (3) On all time frames when trending up the market tends to move -N and then +(N+M). When trending down +N and then -(N+M), where M<N. Since traders are mostly taught to have positive R:R, these two facts inevitably lead to trades getting stopped out on all time frames unless your entry/timing is pretty good. Seems you would need to have very good entry criteria or the ability to spot and run with momentum. I'd recommend procuring/purchasing some tick data for either an index or forex pair and getting real up close and personal with it.
  9. Catch a falling knife. Straight through four levels. Something terminal here. China related?
  10. Looks like the problem with BATS is that it is too chopping on the HTF with swings too wide for a small punter to be able to get it right and/or afford the stops, R/R. Probably need to have a long term fundamental position or be following short term momentum. As said elsewhere if you look at the chart and you don't see the trade, stay away from it. If you are looking at it and trying to guess the direction, stay away from it. There are so many instruments out there it is pointless being married to the ones that wreck your head.
  11. Not really. RSI and SS/FS indicators are lagging. They tell what occurred in the past but do not predict what will happen in the future. For example, if RSI is strong in an uptrend it doesn't suggest that the uptrend will peter out, nor continue. Nevertheless, all uptrends peter out, and the RSI will retreat. That doesn't make an RSI predictive. I've never once on an forum seen someone present statistically significant evidence of a back test proving RSI (or SS/FS) is predictive. I'm pretty sure if someone did the analysis computationally it would result in a ~ 50/50 result. Consolidation doesn't suggest a pullback. Neither does the fact that a historical support or resistance line rests at a point above or below the current SP, mean the price will gravitate towards it. Patterns are all in the eye of the beholder. The one thing on the chart that doesn't tell lies is the price, and the volume if you have real volume on the chart. What an S/R line may betray is the price at which people may be willing to buy and sell. That is not set in stone because it is impacted by fundamentals. Fundamentals can be improving or deteriorating so the the prices at which people are willing to deal will alter accordingly. You also need to consider that for a company like KMR the spread can be up to 10p at times. There's only a whim between 215/220 and 209/214.
  12. The chart speaks for itself. Major P&D and let down in the middle of the chart. Wouldn't be inclined to long or short, looks already DOA with limited liquidity.
  13. Forgetting about indicators which just take away from the chart, H1 shipments for KMR are reported to be off due to weather, not production or demand. That could impact negatively on H1 financials due in August. So, fundamentals support a minor pull back but the next time it approaches overhead resistance, likely to melt like butter.
  14. Ticking up on Turkish interest.
  15. Consolidating in upward trend.
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