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  1. MichaelaIG

    More Misery for May - EMEA Brief 14 Dec

    European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker stumped Theresa May's effort to renegotiate on a key Brexit withdrawal point, namely the Irish Backstop. China's reported industrial output and retail sales growth missed expectations. Industrial output growing by only 5.4% in November the slowest rate of increase in almost three years. Asian Stocks fell as China's economy shows weakening. Shares in Hong Kong and Japan led declines, Japan Topix index sliding 1.5% and Shanghai Composite falling 1.5% Apple to push software updates in attempt to resolve potential court ban of some iPhone models in China resulting from alleged Qualcomm patent infringements. COP24 UN Climate talks in Poland come to an end today but Former Maldives President Mohamed Nasheed warns there may be "hell to pay" if counties fail in taking significant steps in key climate issue agreements. Bitcoin continues to decline as it approaches September 2017 level of $3,000. Europe Car sales fell by 8.1% last month the third monthly decline in a row. Asian overnight: Asian markets have failed to sustain the recent uptrend, with sharp losses overnight coming amid slowing Chinese data and a return of fears over Theresa May’s Brexit programme. Data-wise, the Japanese and Chinese economies have been in focus. The Japanese Tankan non-manufacturing index was the big outperformer, rising back to 24 after last month’s fall to 21. Chinese industrial production and retail sales both underperformed, although the blow was softened by a fall in the unemployment rate. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, a host of eurozone PMI surveys will keep the European session interesting as they are released throughout the morning. Also keep an eye out for the US retail sales figures before we return to the PMI focus for the US manufacturing and services PMI readings to close out the day. After rebuffing Theresa May's attempts to renegotiate or outline the Irish Backstop EU Leaders step up No-Deal Brexit plans. It appears once again that the EU is taking a hard stance in these divorce talks. This week has seen May experience highs and lows as Prime Minister. On Monday May was forced to cancel the parliamentary vote on the draft Brexit deal amid fears the Irish Backstop controversy would result in a no vote. Wednesday saw May survive a vote of no confidence but is this a small victory in the face of today's news? Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) 8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone PMIs (December, flash): German mfg PMI to rise to 52.3 from 51.8. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1.30pm – US retail sales (November): forecast to rise 0.2% MoM from 0.8%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Balfour Beatty expects performance to be above expectations after the sale of its infrastructure investments unit. The year-end order book is expected to be £12 billion, above last year’s £11.4 billion. Reach said that performance for 2018 would be marginally ahead of forecasts, after Q4 revenue rose 23% following the acquisition of Express & Star. Costco reported disappointing quarterly earnings and revenue resulting in shares fall of 3%. Starbucks saw a 3% fall after hours, following the announcement of delivery service partnership with Uber Eats. Lundbeck upgraded to overweight at Barclays Meggitt upgraded to buy at Citi Equinor Downgraded to Sell at Goldman IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. MichaelaIG

    Bitcoin hits year low - EMEA Brief 07 Dec

    Bitcoin hit year low falling below $3,500 after a 11% dive. Chip stocks in Europe and Asia tumbled after the arrest of Huawei CFO . AMS dived 7%, STMicroelectronics fell 4% and Dialog Semiconductor slid 3%. Dow rebounds after falling 780 points ending the day only slightly lower yesterday. 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.83% amid stock sell-off compared to the beginning of the week where it was above 3%. Non-Farm payrolls today expected to have expanded by 198,00 in November. Oil prices fell, Brent Crude falling below $60 a barrel, trading at $59.50, down 0.9%. This follows delayed OPEC oil cut decision, further talks to be held today with oil producing nations. Singapore authorities cast shadow over the Noble Group's $3.5 billion debt rescue plan, stating that they would block the relisting of shares. Asian overnight: Equities have recovered from their lows, with a better session in Asia overnight following on from a steep rebound for US indices that saw the Dow recover from an initial 400-point sell-off to end the day only 80 points down. Investors continue to watch for further signs of fallout between China and the US, but so far the situation is quiet. Markets are also waiting for a decision on oil supply levels from OPEC, the cartel having failed to reach agreement yesterday. Asian stocks see some improvement after Wall Street Journal report suggests that the US interest rates may not increase as quickly as feared. Consequently, the Nikkei up 0.8%, the Hang Seng rose 0.2% and Shaghai stocks clawed back 0.4%. UK, US and Europe: The US jobs report is the focus of attention today, with the recent strength in wages likely to recur. Also on the calendar is the Canadian jobs report, plus the Michigan confidence survey. Last night saw an amendment to the Brexit draft laid down in the House of Commons which offered MPs more say over when and if the contentious Northern Ireland backstop will be triggered. However, DUP leader Arlene Foster dismissed the amendment. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) 1.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (November): payrolls to be 205K from 250K, while average hourly earnings rise 0.2% MoM, and the unemployment rate holds at 3.7%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 1.30pm – Canada employment data (November): 10,000 jobs expected to have been created, from 11,200 a month earlier, and unemployment rate to rise to 5.9% from 5.8%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US Univ. of Michigan consumer confidence (December, preliminary): forecast to be 93 from 97.5. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Associated British Foods said that trading for the first eight weeks of the year was in line with expectations, although November trading at Primark was described as ‘challenging’. The outlook for the current year was unchanged. Berkeley Group reported a pre-tax profit of £401.2 million for the first half, down from £539.9 million a year earlier. Despite this drop, the firm has increased its pre-tax profit guidance for the current year by at least 5%. It sold 2027 homes in the period, down from 2190 a year earlier, but the average selling price rose to £740,000, from £721,000 a year earlier. Premier Oil has reaffirmed annual output guidance, thanks to a stronger performance in November and December. Full-year output is forecast to be around 80k barrels/day. It has also begun drilling at the Zama-2 well offshore Mexico, and has completed the sale of its interests in the Babbage area for £30.3 million. Walmart announce plans to buy Art.com a e-commerce home décor site. Fiat Chrysler announces plan to open new factory in Detroit. Yesterday saw 02 customers without data or facing cellular disruption for 24 hours. Akzo Nobel upgraded to buy at Jefferies Amer Sports upgraded to accumulate at Inderes Rotork upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse Schindler upgraded to overweight at Barclay BMW downgraded to reduce at Commerzbank Scatec Solar downgraded to neutral at SpareBank Centamin downgraded to hold at Berenberg IP Group downgraded to under perform at Jefferies IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. Fed hints that future interest rate rises may be lower than anticipated. Whilst Wall Street saw it's 5th biggest daily increase Asian stocks also gained as a result, the Nikkei saw a 0.9% increase whilst SoftBank rose over 3% and Nintendo a further 4%. Trump announced yesterday that he is exploring new auto tariffs with a view to promote domestic production. This comes as part of an ongoing Trump Administration tariff war. Georgia elects first female president. Salome Zurabishvili won the vote with a 59% majority Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Limited was ordered to pay up to 150 million won to 28 South Koreans who were used as forced labour by the company in World War Two. Bitcoin gains heading for biggest increase since April. Providing some relief after the 32% loss this month Intu takeover worth £2.8 Billion scraped. The shopping network cuts dividends in attempt to maintain construction investment. Asian overnight: Equities surged after Jerome Powell made a speech widely viewed as dovish. The S&P 500 posted its best day since March, with tech and consumer discretionary shares leading the way. Asian markets also bounced as investors pinned their hopes on a slowdown in the pace of Fed tightening after one more hike in December. UK, US and Europe: Today’s FOMC minutes are something of an afterthought following the Powell speech, but we do have plenty of German and eurozone data, and investors should also watch out for US existing home sales, after new home sales fell to their lowest level since March 2016. Also watch UK banks, after the release of the BoE’s forecasts on a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario. Russia-Ukraine frictions result in Ukraine calling on Nato to send ships to the Sea of Azov. This follows Russia opening fire on three Ukrainian ships on Sunday. Nato are yet to respond to this plea, however Chief Jens Stoltenberg on Monday called for Russia to free the Ukrainian ships and captive sailors. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) 8.55am – German unemployment (November): unemployment rate to hold at 5.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 10am – eurozone business confidence (November): forecast to rise to 1.14 from 1.01. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1pm – German inflation (November, preliminary): prices to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US personal income & spending (October): income to rise 0.4% MoM and spending to rise 0.4% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses 3pm – US pending home sales (October): sales to fall 0.5%. YoY. Markets to watch: USD crosses 7pm – FOMC minutes: no change was made in policy, but the minutes will be key for USD movement this week. Markets to watch: USD crosses 11.30pm – Japan unemployment rate (October): rate to rise to 2.4% from 2.3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Unilever 10 year CEO Paul Polman to be succeeded by Alan Jope after retirement Phoenix Group reported cash generation of £1.3 billion for 2018, exceeding its target of £1 - £1.2 billion. Rio Tinto will develop a ‘technologically advanced’ mine in Western Australia, with construction to start next year and production expected in late 2021. Revolut given permission to expand the fintech firm into Japan and Singapore Adecco upgraded to buy at Goldman Total upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan Cobham upgraded to buy at Berenberg Iliad upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley BASF downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays Equinor downgraded to underweight at JPMorgan ISS downgraded to sell at Goldman Senior downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. Nissan shares fell more than 5% following Chairman Carlos Ghosn being placed under arrest for allegedly violating Japanese financial law Societe Generale SA settles sanctions violation case with US authorities agreeing to pay $1.34 billion Talk talk hackers who caused massive data breach affecting 1.6 million customer accounts in 2015 have been jailed for cyber crimes Oil prices ended on a high yesterday, as EU reported to back French sanctions on Iran Dow Jones tumbled around 400 points yesterday as technology stocks including Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Alphabet declined Bitcoin fell a further 12% to sit below $5,000, its lowest level in over a year GBP rallied to $1.30 following Prime Minister's announcement of cabinet backing for Brexit withdrawal plan Asian overnight: Asian markets followed their US counterparts lower overnight, with Chinese and Hong Kong markets suffering the heaviest losses, losing 2% over the course of the session. The tech sector has been a particular focus for selling pressure, with recent signs over a potential peak in iPhone sales coupled with ongoing tension between the US and China. Bitcoin has continued its decline following the recent drop below a technically important zone of support around $6000. Nissan stocks took a hit after Chairman Carlos Ghosn was arrested for violating Japanese financial law. The misconduct was reported in a whistleblower report which sited that an investigation showed that Ghosh (and Representative Director Greg Kelly) had been reporting compensation amounts in the Tokyo Stock Exchange securities report that were lower than the actual amount, in order to reduce the disclosed amount of Carlos Ghosn's compensation. The report also suggested this was not Ghosn's only transgression but outlined numerous other significant acts of misconduct such as personal use of company assets. Following these findings it is suggested that Nissan's CEO Hiroto Saikawa, will propose to the Board of director that both Ghosn and Kelly are removed from their positions. Gibraltar - a further stumbling block in Brexit agreement UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the main event of note comes from the UK, where the BoE inflation report hearing sees the likes of Mark Carney take the stand for a bout of questioning. Also keep an eye out for the latest US building permits, and housing starts in the afternoon. Earnings-wise, we see a host of US retail names report their latest earnings, with Gap, Target, Footlocker, Best Buy, Lowe's, and Barnes & Noble all in the spotlight. Theresa May continues to argue in defense of her draft withdrawal agreement, stating at the annual Confederation of British Industry yesterday that the deal puts the UK's economic success above all else. However Spain has argued that a consensus must be met in regard to Gibraltar before they will accept the proposed Brexit deal. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) 1.30pm – US housing starts & building permits (October): permits to rise to 1.27 million and starts to rise to 1.23 million. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Compass said that revenue rose 5.5% to £23.24 billion, while operating profit was up 7.1% to £1.74 billion, for the full year. Spectris said that sales rose 9% in the four months to October, while the full-year performance is expected to be in line with forecasts. Polypipe reported a 10.2% rise in revenue for the four months to October, while the full-year is forecast to be in line with expectations. AO World said that full-year results would be weighted towards the second half of the year, due to more challenging UK trading conditions. Total sales for the half year rose 10% to £404 million, but the overall loss was £11.7 million, although this was fractionally less than last year’s £12 million. EasyJet reported a 41.4% rise in pre-tax profit to £578 million, while revenue rose 16.8% to £5.9 billion. Nvidia fell a further 11% yesterday after 3rd quarter earnings report TSB appoints Debbie Crosbie as new chief executive after IT scandal Urban Outfitters shares increased by over 6% during after-hours trading following company earning reports of 70 cents per share vs estimated 62 cents a share L Brands shares declined by more than 5% after cutting annual dividends in half to $1.20 Melrose Industries Upgraded to Top Pick at RBC Rotork Raised to Outperform by RBC Dermapharm Upgraded to Buy at Oddo BHF Tryg Downgraded to Sell at Goldman Gjensidige Downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Aker BP Downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan Spirax Downgraded to Underperform at RBC IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. Theresa May continues to back her Brexit deal despite deep divisions in her party, 16 members of which have openly called for a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister Brexit draft agreement led to several resignations including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab and cabinet minister Esther McVey The GBP fell 1.7% against the dollar and 1.9% against the Euro yesterday, the lowest in over two weeks. However, this morning has seen a slight rally The Trump administration are reported to be planning to set up a controversial side-event promoting fossil fuels at next month’s annual U.N. Climate talks Apple partners with Studio A24 to create original feature-length movies. This follows 4 suppliers of apple elements cutting their revenue forecasts this week due to reduced orders from tech company. Suppliers include AMS Ag, Qorvo and Lumentum. Lumentum took the biggest resulting market hit as shares fell 30% after Apples update on Monday. Yesterday the much anticipated hard fork of Bitcoin Cash took place, the uncertainty of which saw BCH fall to $386 down 9.1% to it's lowest in over a year Natural Gas fell a further 2% this morning after suffering a downturn of 19% yesterday, it's worst slide in 14 years. This follows Wednesday's surge as cold weather and low stockpiles saw demand increase Asian overnight: Chinese stocks were the one outlier overnight, with losses across Japanese, Hong Kong, and Australian markets taking hold after a tumultuous session yesterday. Improved sentiment around the possibility of a US-China breakthrough have helped the outlook for Asian markets, with the FT stating that talks between the two sides have intensified. Sterling stabilised overnight, as Theresa may’s staunch support for her plan helped ease fears over near-term uncertainty in her position. However, it is not over yet. The killing of Jamal Khashoggi continues to cast a shadow for Saudi Arabia as the Trump administration sanctions 17 people. Consul General Mohammed Alotaibai and senior Saudi official Maher Mutreb are among the individuals sanctioned. This follows the statement from Saudi prosecutors who said they would seek the death penalty for five of those allegedly involved. However, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Mevlut Casvusoglu remain unsatisfied calling for prosecution under Turkish law. UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, the Brexit theme is no doubt going to run through into the weekend, with all eyes on the likes of Jacob Rees Mogg who is helping spearhead a movement to force a vote of no confidence against Theresa May. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister stands firm on her proposed Brexit agreement despite this party controversy. The 585 page long agreement addresses several highly contentious issues, the most noteworthy of which include the establishment of the previously discussed 21 month transition period and the so-called "backstop" (whereby until a future relationship has been established Northern Ireland with become part of the single customs territory with Great Britain). Furthermore, under this backstop agreement the UK must observe "level playing field" commitments, meaning that UK businesses are not able to undercut EU industries. Following the agreement’s announcement yesterday the GBP and FTSE 250 both fell sharply. Despite widespread discontent, Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor stated that there was “no question” of renegotiating the Brexit deal agreed yesterday. With such uncertainty it seems these volatile times may be set to continue. On the data front, watch out for the eurozone inflation data, with CPI expected to fall from 05% to 0.1%. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) 10am – eurozone CPI (October): prices to rise 0.1% MoM from 0.5%, and increase 2.2% YoY from 2.1%. Core CPI to be 0.9% YoY. Market to watch: EUR crosses Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Halma has agreed a deal to acquire Navtech Radar in a deal worth up to £39m. Halma have spent an initial £21m to acquire Navtech, while a further £18m could be paid dependent on profit growth in the next three financial years. Navtech Radar is a provider of innovative radar surveillance and safety solutions for use in highway monitoring, perimeter security and industrial applications Kier Group has sold its share of the Australian asset KHSA to their joint venture partner Downer Group. The deal sees the firm earn up to $43.7m (£24m), with the proceeds going to pay down debt Nvidia shares closed at $202.39 after plunging 16% after hours and regaining 2.6% during the regular session. This follows a 21.9% decline over the past 3 months Cisco shares gained 5.2% yesterday, reaching $47.10, in an intraday high Nutrien establishes Pedro Farah Walmart executive as its new Executive VP and CFO Centamin raised to overweight at Morgan Stanley Aston Martin rated new overweight at JPMorgan Eiffage upgraded to buy at SocGen Galp upgraded to buy at Santander Evonik downgraded to neutral at Citi Innogy cut to sell at Independent Research Leoni downgraded to neutral at MainFirst Nordex downgraded to sell at SocGen IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. Apple hosting event in Brooklyn today, starting at 2pm UK time. New iPad announcements expected UK Chancellor Philip Hammond announced plans to implement Digital Services Tax from April 2020 UK government’s “Cryptoasset Taskforce" published its final report yesterday outlining a range of regulatory steps around crypto assets Bitcoin dropped $200 after two weeks stagnating around $6,400. Having achieved earlier this month a 17-month low volatility rate the perception that it could be a reliable store of wealth had increased Angela Merkel to Step down as leader of the Christian Democratic Union of Germany in 2021 BNP announced net income for quarter 3 as €2.1 billion compared to an expected €1.97 billion Dow Jones dropped 352 points yesterday, it’s biggest same day reversal since February China reverses 25 year ban on tiger and rhino products, allowing use under special circumstances Chinese Yuan drops to Decade low of 6.9724 per dollar Oil prices, dragged down by weakness in global stock and concerns over rising supply, are quickly recovering losses. Saudi’s pledge to produce as much oil as possible has erased concerns over the November 4th implementation of US sanctions against Iran Gold hoovers down as dollar gains amidst US-China trade war fears Asian overnight: Asian markets were broadly higher overnight, with the Hang Seng providing the one outlier to the bullish session. The Chinese securities regulator encouraged share buybacks and investment from insurance companies, yet this bullish sentiment on the stock front did little to boost the Chinese Yuan, with the currency falling to the lowest level in 10-years. Data-wise, the Japanese unemployment rate fell to 2.3% from 2.4% overnight. Should trade talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping continue to fail regarding ongoing trade disputes, the US is preparing new tariffs against all remaining Chinese imports. This follows the 10% tariff imposed in September by the White House on $200 billion Chinese products. Digital Services Tax from yesterday's budget is set to be implemented in 2020 UK, US and Europe: Looking ahead, markets will be looking out for the eurozone Q3 GDP figure, following on from the French figure (0.4% from 0.2%) this morning. In the US session, keep an eye out for the US consumer confidence figure, while equity traders will be keen to see the latest earnings from eBay, General Electric, and Pfizer. The UK Finance Minister Philip Hammond gave the UK governments budget announcement yesterday. Output growth forecasts have increased to 1.6% compared to 1.3% estimated in March. Notably the plan to enforce a Digital Services Tax from April 2020 was announced, this tax will be paid by companies generating £500 million a year in global revenue such companies which may be effected include Google, Amazon and Facebook. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 8.55am – German unemployment (October): rate to rise to 5.2% from 5.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 10am – Eurozone GDP (Q3, flash), business confidence (October): GDP to rise 2.5% YoY and 0.5% QoQ, and business confidence index to fall to 1.19 from 1.21. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 1pm – German inflation (October, preliminary): CPI to rise 2% YoY from 2.3%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 2pm – US consumer confidence (October): confidence to fall to 137 from 138.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades BP said that Q3 profit rose to $3.8 billion, from $1.87 billion a year earlier. Upstream production rose 6.8% to 2,460 million barrels a day Reckitt Benckiser reported a 2% drop in Q3 sales due to disruptions at its UK formula plant. Revenue fell to $3.12 billion, but was up 2% on a like-for-like basis Restaurant Group will acquire Mabel Topico, owner of Wagamamas, for £357 million, and will issue new shares to fund the deal. Volkswagen also reported better than expected 3rd quarter results of €2.7 billion Amazon shares fell a further $103.93 to $1,538.88 yesterday. This 6.3% drop resulting in a total 23% slide in the past three weeks. Boeing shares closed yesterday 6.6% down, their worst daily performance since February 2016 Rambus announces interim CEO Luc Seraphin will become permanent Leader Nintendo Co's quarterly results lower than 37.9 billion yen expected coming in at 30.9 billion yen Asos upgraded to add at AlphaValue Electrocomponents raised to neutral at Credit Suisse PostNL upgraded to hold at Berenberg Travis Perkins raised to equal-weight at Barclays Ahlsell downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan Drax downgraded to hold at Jefferies Kuka downgraded to add at AlphaValue IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. Following Brussels summit Theresa May hints the UK may consider longer transition period resulting in the UK remaining tied to the Euro bloc's rules for a period of 21 months after the exit day Trump escalates economic confrontation with Beijing by announcing his intention to withdraw the US from China Shipping Treaty Cannabis stocks slipped after Canada’s legalisation. Aurora Cannabis Inc posting a 15% slide shortly after market opened yesterday. Popular ETFs ETFMG Alternative Harvest and Horizons Medical Marijuana Life Sciences also saw decreases Netflix shares rose by 10% after releasing quarterly results Dow volatility continues, dropping 260 points yesterday Bitcoin futures daily volumes went up by 41% in quarter 3 compared to quater 2 but rally stalled yesterday trading at $6492.68 down 0.5% from the previous day Asian overnight: The Asian recovery has proved somewhat short-lived, with stocks throughout China, Hong Kong, and Japan all shifting back into the red. The onshore Chinese Yuan hits lowest since 2017 trading at 6.935 against the dollar this morning. Stocks in Asia also saw a decline, Japan’s Topix fell 0.4% and the Korean Kospi fell 0.8%. Similarly, the Shanghai composite dropping by 1.53% and the the Nikki 225 lowering 0.37%. Australian stocks were the one outlier, with the ASX 200 trading moderately in the green following a jobs report which saw a sharp decline in unemployment (5.0% from 5.3%). This also helped drive the Australian dollar higher, with AUD providing one of the only gainers against the greenback. Much of that dollar strength came from yesterday’s Fed minutes, which pointed towards broad agreement amongst members that rates should rise further. Following the Khashoggi disappearance and several companies calling for a boycott of the Saudi Arabia business conference next week senior executive firms including Goldman Sachs, Pepsi, Thales EDF are all still expected to attend. UK, US and Europe: The UK remains in focus once more today, with the retail sales data being released in the wake of the inflation and jobs data over the past two days. Today sees that EU summit draw to a close. Yesterday saw Theresa May hint at a possible extension to the transition period to allow for more trade talks, although her inability to come up with another solution to the Irish Border issue seemed to forego the opportunity to provide a breakthrough in negotiations. In the US, watch out for the latest Philly Fed manufacturing index, while Canadians will look to the ADP payrolls numbers. Oil stockpiling by the US causes largest decline in oil prices in two months. Futures contracts for November West Texas Intermediate crude declined by 3% to settle at §69.75 a barrel and December Brent crude fell by 1.7% to $80.05. Meanwhile November natural gas rose by 2.5%. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) 9:30am - UK retail sales figure Year on year, expected to remain at 3.3% 24:30pm - Japan's National consumer price index Year on Year, expected to remain at 1.3% Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Domino’s Pizza expects full-year underlying pre-tax profit to be in the middle of market expectations, while in Q3 sales rose 5.9% to £303.3 million. A £25 million buyback programme will be launched Unilever reported a 3.8% rise in underlying sales for Q3, with good growth across all divisions GVC said that online net gaming revenue rose 28% in Q3, helped by the football world cup. Falling UK revenues were offset by a rise in European sales Asos shares climb after reporting revenue of £2.4billion for the year with profits jumping to a better than expected 28% Elon Musk announces his intention to buy $20 million of Tesla Stock during the next open trading window IBM slid by as much a 7% yesterday after announcement of revenue decline Constellation Brands’ stock fell by 2.7% following announcement that Rob Sands will step down as CEO of on March 1st Hello and Mathewson Analytics, MoviePass’ company stock declined by 4% after opening of investigation into possibility of company misleading investors Facebook backed proposal to remove CEO Mark Zuckerberg as chairman due to mishandling of several high-profile scandals Entertainment One +4.9% Drax Group +4.6% Sophos +3.9% Bank of Georgia +3.5% Mediclinic -17% Inchcape -13% Softcat -11.5% Crest Nicholson -8.2% IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. MichaelaIG

    Asian Markets Decline - EMEA Brief 09 Oct

    Asia stocks at 17-month low as China lets yuan slip. China’s central bank fixed its yuan at 6.9019 per dollar on Tuesday. Dow: After 3-day downtrend and a drop of 200 points the Dow rises for the first time. Sovereign debt markets were calmer overnight whilst the 10 yr US Treasury maintained its 7 and a half year high. Oil prices are steady but up 0.6% after a late boost on Monday. Supply side shortages from Iranian sanctions claims the move. Google bug caused Shares of Google parent Alphabet to fall more than 2 percent immediately after the report before paring some losses. The stock was last seen roughly 1 percent down. The IMF cuts its global growth forecasts due to trade tensions, global economy now expected to grow at 3.7 percent this year and next year — down 0.2 percentage points from an earlier forecast. Asian overnight: Japanese markets have led the declines, with the likes of the Nikkei and Topix playing catch up following yesterday’s bank holiday. The Hang Seng is the one outlier, with the market trading marginally higher despite declines in Japan, China, and Australia. A wider bearish trend remains in place with fears over a Chinese slowdown coupled with Italian fiscal uncertainty. ...anyone thinking about an EM index or localised commodity exporter trade should keep an eye on a potentially devaluing RMB. China’s stimulus package announced on Sunday may have a positive effect for EM’s by helping to counteract a strengthening dollar and high interest rates. For many it could mean a continuation of imports and commodity prices - miners and commodity exporters should be very happy. There’s also a chance for some EM’s that government led fiscal stimulus may be initiated to counteract some of the effects seen from the US-Sino trade war. Brazil, a major source of imports for China, is one of the key emerging markets to keep an eye on. This is especially important as monday saw Brazilian stocks soar the most since 2017 after far-right candidate won the first election round. Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro garnered 46.7 percent of the votes in Sunday's first round. The Brazilian real rallied more than 2 percent against the U.S. dollar. Despite China’s best efforts to not devalue the renminbi, the currency took a hit on Monday sliding around 0.9%. Here lies the most prominent risk which could all but negate any benefit discussed above: a weak RMB. Increased relative costs, bad sentiment, and a fear of money leaving China could have some serious teeth, so anyone thinking about an EM index or localised commodity exporter trade should keep an eye on a potentially devaluing RMB as it tries to push to the psychologically important 7RMB to the dollar. UK, US and Europe: Data-wise, there are few economic releases to watch out for, with the German trade balance already released earlier this morning. Interestingly, we have seen the German trade figure come in significantly higher, yet this remains below the figure two-months ago. With a distinct lack of any significant economic releases today, watch out for the ongoing themes of bond yields and trade wars as key drivers. South Africa: Global equity markets are trading flat to lower this morning, suggestive of a flat to lower start for the Jse AllShare index. Commodity prices are off their worst levels although they remain under pressure. The rand has started to renew some strength following yesterdays Finance Minister induced weakness, although remains at depressed levels in the short term. Tencent Holdings is down 1.4% in Asia, suggestive of a soft start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 0.3% in Australia suggestive of a marginally positive start for local resource counters. Crude oil futures up during mid-morning trade in Asia Tuesday. At 10:48 am Singapore time (0248 GMT), the December ICE Brent crude futures was up 31 cents/b (0.37%) from Monday's settle at $84.22/b, while the NYMEX November light sweet crude contract was up 31 cents/b (0.42%) at $74.60/b. This is despite expected mild build in US crude inventories due to ongoing concerns about supply pushing prices higher. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Airbus deal to save Emirates has reached impasse amid drawn-out talks involving 36 A380 superjumbo’s engines. Further Airbus have appointed Guillaume Faury as next CEO WPP said that Ford had appointed a competitor as its lead creative agency, but that WPP would still be responsible for the Ford brand in key regions and channels. Wood Group reported it had won contracts worth a combined $250 million from the US energy sector so far this year. Aviva CEO Mark Wilson will step down, although he will remain with the group until April 2019. It added that the firm continued to perform in line with forecasts, and remains on track to hit operating earnings per share growth of 5% in 2018. Unite Group said that full-year rental growth from its portfolio was in line with its 3-3.5% target. It added that its portfolio for the 2018/19 academic year was 98% let. Commerzbank upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan Kuehne + Nagel upgraded to outperform at RBC Schroders upgraded to buy at Berenberg Telecom Plus upgraded to buy at Peel Hunt Atlas Copco cut to underweight at Morgan Stanley RWE downgraded to hold at HSBC Royal Mail downgraded to hold at HSBC Sage downgraded to underweight at Barclays IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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