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OPEC oil talks - EMEA brief 22nd June

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JamesIG

  • Oil seeing volatility ahead of a crucial meeting for OPEC on production. 'History of Crude Oil' video below.
  • Emerging markets aren't helped by trade war talks and slip to a 9 month low.
  • Trade war fallout starting to be seen with Daimler's profit warning likely to be linked to the imposed tariffs. 
  • Relatively large macro economic day today. Give a once over to the calendar below and plan your day.

Asian Overnight: Asian markets were largely back in the red overnight, as the market fear that has been dictating the state of play globally returned once more. Japanese markets also traded lower, despite a rise in the manufacturing PMI survey overnight, with the May figure also revised higher. Oil is going to be the talk of the town today, with the OPEC meeting reaching its conclusion. The question is whether we see a production rise by above or below 1M bpd. This is a rough the threshold that differentiates a result that is seen as a victory for Iran (below 1M), or Saudi Arabia (above 1M).

UK, US and Europe: The PMI theme is going to stick around throughout the morning today, with a whole host of eurozone PMI figures released from the likes of France, Germany, and the eurozone. The big event of the day is certainly going to be the OPEC meeting in Vienna, where volatility across the energy space looks all but guaranteed. In the US session, look out for the Canadian CPI figures, alongside manufacturing and services PMI readings out of the US.

South Africa: The dollar has softened overnight to give some relief to the rand and emerging market currencies. BHP Billiton is trading 0.7% lower in Australia suggesting a weaker open for the local listing and perhaps diversified resource counters. Tencent Holdings is trading 0.2% lower in Asia, suggestive of a flat to softer start for major holding company Naspers. 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

1498467692_2018-06-2208_06_23-ForexEconomicCalendar.thumb.png.76d11a542287c05e600aaeb46dff01f9.png

8am – 9am: French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMIs (June, flash): these initial readings provide a gauge of activity in key parts of these economies. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (May): price growth expected to be 2.2% YoY, in line with last month, and 0.2% MoM, from 0.3% in April. Market to watch: CAD crosses

2.45pm – US mfg & services PMI (June, flash): manufacturing PMI to fall to 54 from 56.6, and services to rise to 56.5 from 56.4. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Featured video

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Playtech has received approval from the Italian regulator to buy the rest of the shares of Snaitech not currently owned by the firm. 

Allianz Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg
Telenor Upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan

Zurich Ins. Downgraded to Hold at Berenberg
Ceconomy Downgraded to Hold at Commerzbank
Equinor Downgraded to Sell at DZ Bank
Heidelberger Druck Downgraded to Reduce at AlphaValue

 

Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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