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The Week Ahead On The Markets


MongiIG

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The Week Ahead

Read about upcoming market-moving events and plan your trading week

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Week commencing 17 July

Chris Beauchamp's insight

This week is dominated by earnings season in the US, which continues with banks such as Goldman Sachs, as well as electric car manufacturer Tesla and streaming service Netflix. UK data such as consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales will be important given the recent surge in GBP/USD.

 

Economic reports

  • Weekly view

Monday

3am – China GDP (Q2): growth to rebound to 7.3% YoY from 4.5%, and drop to 0.5% QoQ from 2.2%. Markets to watch: China indices, CNH crosses

1.30pm – US Empire State mfg index (July): index to fall from 6.6 to 5. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Tuesday

2.30am – RBA meeting minutes. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

1.30pm – US retail sales (June): expected to rise 0.5% MoM from 0.3%. Markets to watch: USD crosses

1.30pm – Canada CPI (June): prices to rise 0.4% MoM and 3.1% YoY, from 0.4% and 3.4%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses

 

Wednesday

7am – UK CPI (June): YoY price growth to slow to 8.3% from 8.7%, and MoM figure to drop to 0.4% from 0.7%. Core CPI to rise 7% YoY from 7.1%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

3.30pm – US EIA crude oil inventories (w/e 14 July): stockpiles rose by 5.9 million barrels in the previous week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

 

Thursday

2.30am – Australia employment rate (June): rate to hold at 3.6%. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

1.30pm- US initial jobless claims (w/e 15 July): Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

3pm – US existing home sales (June): sales to rise 0.7% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

 

Friday

12.30am – Japan CPI (June): prices to rise 3.1% from 3.2% YoY, and core CPI to hold at 3.2%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

7am – UK retail sales (June): sales to fall 0.2% MoM and 1.7% YoY. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

 

Company announcements

 

 

 

 

Monday
17 July

Tuesday
18 July

Wednesday
19 July

Thursday
20 July

Friday
21 July

Full-year earnings

         

Half/ Quarterly earnings

  Ocado,
Goldman Sachs,
Bank of America,
Morgan Stanley
Tesla,
Alcoa,
Netflix,
Halliburton,
IBM
American Airlines,
Johnson & Johnson
American Express,
Schlumberger

Trading update*

    Severn Trent easyJet  

 

 
 

Dividends

FTSE 100: None

FTSE 250: Ninety One, Bytes Technology, Cranswick, Pennon, Foresight Solar, Telecom Plus

Dividends are applied after the close of the previous day’s session for each market. So, for example, the FTSE 100 goes ex-dividend on a Thursday, but the adjustment is applied at the close of the previous day, e.g. Wednesday. The table below shows the days in which the adjustment is applied, not the ex-dividend days.

* Please note these can change without notice

* Dividend adjustments due to be posted on a bank holiday will usually be posted on the previous working day

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      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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