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MongiIG

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  1. For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: China’s Hang Seng tech index rebounds sharply on reports China is responding to investor concerns over regulatory outlook. UK earnings: Lloyds Q2 pretax profit tops estimates, announces acquisition of Embark Shell to resume share buybacks targeting $2bn by year-end BT Q1 earnings top estimates, AZN, Diageo also report US earnings: Facebook warns on growth outlook, shares lower, PayPal disappoints, Amazon ATB Europe earnings: VW raises FY outlook Credit Suisse Q2 net income falls short of estimates Fed last night, rates unchanged, considers tapering bond purchases , US quarterly GDP later today Brent crude closing in on $75 as EIA inventories fall short of estimates.
  2. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates, and acknowledge that while progress had been made toward its threshold to start tapering monthly bond purchases, more time was needed to assess the progress at upcoming meetings. The Federal Open Market Committee left its benchmark rate unchanged in the range of 0% to 0.25% and said it would continue its $120 billion monthly bond purchases. "Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals.," The Fed said in its statement. "Since then, the economy has made progress toward these goals, and the Committee will continue to assess progress in coming meetings." The Fed has faced calls from within its ranks to bring forward the timeline on tightening monetary policy in the wake of rising inflation. Despite admitting that the pace of inflation has surprised to the upside, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been reluctant to heed calls to tighten policy sooner rather than later. “While reaching the standard of ‘substantial further progress’ is still a ways off, participants expect that progress will continue,” Powell said earlier this month in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. A recovery in the labor market appears to be at the heart of the Fed’s taper threshold. But Powell recently admitted the labor market "still has a long way to go." Sentiment on the recovery in the labor market and broader market, meanwhile, suffered a further blow with the resurgence in Covid-19 cases brought on by the delta variant and a slowing vaccination rates. “Until a couple of months ago, our GDP growth forecast had been distinguished for the prior year by being well above consensus expectations,” Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a recent report to clients. “At this point, our forecast is instead distinguished from consensus expectations by the sharpness of the deceleration that we expect over the next year and a half.” Goldman Sachs now expects the U.S. economy to return to expansion of 1.5% to 2% in the second half of next year. Traders will shift attention to Powell's press conference at 2.30 PM ET (1830 GMT), for more clues on the roadmap to tapering bond purchases. But the Fed chief isn’t expected to provide any meaningful updates on the timeline. "We expect the Committee to debate the pace and flexibility, as well as the relationship of tapering with rate hikes. At the post-FOMC press conference, we expect Chair Powell to acknowledge the Committee's discussions, while stressing no decision has yet been made," Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) said in a recent note. By Yasin Ebrahim, 28 July 2021. Investing.com
  3. Hi @ChocoIG, thanks for your question. Please reach out to our client facing team as we can't assist with these queries on the community, the client facing team will be able to check with the desk and see why your orders are not valid and give you feedback, but we do apologise for the inconvenience. You can reach them on helpdesk.uk@ig.com All the best - MongiIG
  4. Hi @bkhan, please reach out to our client facing team as we can't assist with these queries but we do apologise for the inconvenience. You can reach them on helpdesk.uk@ig.com All the best - MongiIG
  5. Hi @Marcraffard, thanks for sharing the link on why Tesla stock fell after the earnings. Great article to read. Regards MongiIG
  6. By Dhirendra Tripathi, 28 July 2021. Investing.com Investing.com – Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) stock came off earlier lows in premarket trading Wednesday and was down 0.4% as the company raised its annual guidance and pegged revenue from sale of its COVID-19 vaccines at approximately $33.5 billion. The revenue from COVID-19 vaccines reflects 2.1 billion doses expected to be delivered in 2021 under already-signed contracts as of middle of this month. It could supply up to 3 billion doses if expansion at current sites happens and new suppliers are added, Pfizer said. The vaccine contributed $7.83 billion in revenue during the second quarter. Expenses and profit from the vaccine are split equally between Pfizer and BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX). Pfizer raised its 2021 guidance for revenue to a range of $78 billion to $80 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share to $3.95-$4.05. This only factors in the revenue from COVID vaccines already contracted. It had earlier guided for revenue to come between $78 billion and $80 billion. Second-quarter revenue at the pharmaceutical giant rose 92% from a year ago to $18.97 billion. COVID shots aside, Pfizer’s revenue was also boosted by growth in its pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar and oncology businesses as people attended to health issues they had been putting off in the pandemic. Excluding revenue from the COVID vaccine BNT162b2, revenue grew 10% operationally to $11.1 billion. Adjusted diluted earnings per share came at $1.07, beating the estimate of 96 cents.
  7. The Federal Reserve keep markets guessing around taper talk, with the rise in Delta cases expected to result in a more cautious approach. Source: Bloomberg Federal Reserve Inflation Federal Open Market Committee Technical analysis Market trend Core inflation Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021 The Federal open market committee (FOMC) return to the fold this week, with investors keenly looking out for clues from a meeting that is likely to be more talk than action. That two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday 27 July. Inflation fears remain Recent months have seen a significant degree of uncertainty after the Federal Reserve (Fed) took a notable shift in tone away from their explicitly dovish and supportive stance seen since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. Instead, the recent rise in inflation has brought a more cautious approach, with the committee clearly losing confidence that this recent rise in prices will be transitory. The chart below highlights how those inflationary pressures remain highly present, with both headline and core consumer price index (CPI) pushing through the 5% threshold. Notably, that takes core inflation to the highest level in 20-years. Source: Federal Reserve Last month’s dot plot highlights how that rise in inflation has pushed outlook at the Fed, with a majority of members seeing rates rising in 2023. Meanwhile, we have also seen a total of seven members that foresee higher rates as early as next year. Source: Federal Reserve Expectations of a 2022 rate rise are evident when looking at the market pricing of the first hike. Any rate rise at Wednesday’s meeting looks highly unlikely given the 0% currently priced in. However, the longer-term outlook sees expectations rise towards the end of 2022. Source: Eikon Delta variant could result in cautious approach Despite the ongoing pressure brought about by soaring inflation, the rise of the Delta variant does provide the basis for a more cautious Fed this time around. Despite 48% of the US enjoying full vaccination status, those efforts have been undermined by rise of the more contagious Delta strain which now accounts for 91% of US cases. The surge in Delta dominance has been simultaneous with a rise in cases, with new cases rising to the highest level since April 2021. Source: Ourworldindata Tapering the key topic for traders With a rate rise unlikely this year, traders will instead focus on tapering given the fact that the Fed will look to address their asset purchases scheme first. The ongoing quantitative easing policy helps to drive equity prices upward and a weaker dollar. With that in mind, any move to withdraw this stimulus would likely drive markets lower. From an FX perspective, the dollar trajectory is less clear as the strength that could come from tighter policy can be counteracted by haven demand as equity prices head lower. While we are unlikely to see tapering commence yet, we are likely to see volatility if the Fed provides forward guidance on when tapering will start. Dollar index technical analysis The dollar has started to head lower as we move into this week’s meeting, with price falling back below the ascending trendline that supported price over the past month. The recent rally is yet to take us up through the prior high of $93.47, with the long-term downtrend yet to be debunked. Until then, there is a risk of a move lower, with a decline through the $92.07 swing low bringing a more bearish outlook. Until that level breaks, there is a risk we could see the uptrend of the past two-months come back into play. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 technical analysis The S&P 500 is also weakening as we head into the meeting, with prices easing back from Monday’s record high. Should the Fed decide to bring a more hawkish stance, we could see this pullback extend. However, such a move would likely represent a retracement of the rally from 4232. As such, even if we do see a somewhat unlikely roadmap for tapering laid out, it would likely present another opportunity to buy the dip. Meanwhile, a more patient approach would raise the likeliness of a swift move back towards previous highs Source: ProRealTime
  8. EUR/USD and GBP/USD on the rise as AUD/USD lags behind EUR/USD and GBP/USD show potential for a bullish resurgence, while AUD/USD lags behind. Source: Bloomberg Forex Market sentiment Australian dollar EUR/USD GBP/USD AUD/USD Joshua Mahony | Senior Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021 EUR/USD shows first signs of bullish phase EUR/USD managed to rise through the $1.1831 resistance level yesterday, with the pair showing the first signs of a bullish phase after two months of downside. The very gradual nature of this sell-off has highlighted the potential for a breakout before long, yet we needed to see a push through resistance for that to come into play. While $1.1831 is a notable level, a rise through $1.1851 would bring greater confidence that a bullish phase is coming into play. Nonetheless, with the intraday trend showing higher highs and higher lows, it makes sense to look at this with a more bullish view unless the price falls back below $1.177. Source: ProRealTime GBP/USD closes in on key resistance GBP/USD has been on the rise over the course of the past week, with the pair pushing up through the 76.4% Fibonacci resistance level yesterday. With pricing closing in on the key $1.391 swing high, a break through that level would bring a bullish reversal signal after two months of downside. As such, the ability to break up through $1.391 will be critical in determining sentiment as we move forward. Source: ProRealTime AUD/USD lags behind as it falls towards double top support AUD/USD has failed to replicate the gains seen elsewhere, with the dollar dominating this pair once again this morning. A break through the $0.733 level would complete a double top formation, highlighting the potential for further downside from here. As such, watch for a potential break below $0.733 to bring about a bearish continuation signal. Notably, the underperformace of the Australian dollar also brings attention to the fact that we could see strength for the likes of EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD in the day ahead. Source: ProRealTime
  9. Gold stabilises above support as oil holds its ground Both gold and oil are consolidating, the former after losses and the latter after gains. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021 Gold The gold price fell back from Monday’s high, but once again found support around $1795. The rally from Tuesday’s low appears to be stalling below $1808, below Monday’s peak, suggesting selling momentum remains strong for now. But the continued formation of a base around $1795 does at least suggest downside will be limited in the short-term. Source: ProRealTime WTI Oil has avoided a renewed turn lower for now, but a break above trendline resistance from the recent highs remains unbroken. However, losses below $70.50 have been contained, which leads the bullish side to have the upper hand for a time. That being said, a breakout above $72 is needed to revive bullish momentum. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on a commodity?
  10. Indices look for new gains after mixed few days While indices have avoided further losses there is still some concern that the bounce from last week has begun to stall. Source: Bloomberg Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Wednesday 28 July 2021 FTSE 100 The FTSE 100's gains have stalled over the past three days, but dips below 6950 have found buyers. The rally seen since last week needs to push on above 7050 to suggest that further momentum is tending towards the upside. Source: ProRealTime DAX Bulls will be hoping that the DAX's bounce has stabilised above 15,450, after a short-term drop back from last week’s peak near 15,700. Trendline resistance from Friday’s high continues to hold back progress, so in the short-term a move above 15,570 is needed to provide a more bullish view. Source: ProRealTime S&P 500 After touching a record high on Monday the price has weakened, but overall the bounce is intact. Further gains seem unlikely unless we see a move back below 4370. Source: ProRealTime See opportunity on an index?
  11. (Bloomberg) -- With the delta variant posing a growing risk to the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are likely to emphasize patience on scaling back the central bank’s massive policy support. The Federal Open Market Committee is all but certain to hold interest rates near zero at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday and repeat a vow to keep buying bonds at the current $120 billion monthly pace. The panel will release a statement at 2 p.m. in Washington and Powell will hold a press briefing 30 minutes later. No forecasts are scheduled to be released at this meeting. “The argument to be patient is much stronger and Jay Powell is a patient guy,” said Vincent Reinhart, Mellon chief economist. “They are worried about the pandemic, of course. They are pleased with unfolding economic data, but there is a long way to go.” The case for delaying any exit from stimulus has also been enhanced by recent market moves. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen since the Fed last met in mid-June, along with market measures of inflation expectations, as the perceived threat of the delta variant to worldwide growth has vexed investors. The FOMC has pledged to keep buying $80 billion in Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgage securities until the economy shows “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment as it recovers from Covid-19. Powell said in congressional testimony this month that the threshold “is still a ways off.” Tapering A debate on the mechanics of tapering bond buying will be a central focus of the meeting. This will likely include when to start, how long the process should take and whether to adjust mortgage purchases at a faster pace in light of the hot housing market. There’s also the question whether the Fed would want to complete the tapering process before raising rates, which are currently projected to be on hold through 2022. The FOMC might come up with a set of formal exit principles, as it did following the previous exit from asset purchases, said Julia Coronado, president of MacroPolicy Perspectives. “Powell will confirm they have started planning discussions around tapering,” said Coronado, a former Fed economist, adding that more details could be shared in the minutes of the meeting, which are released with a three-week lag. What Bloomberg Economics Says... “The Federal Reserve will maintain a steady policy course this week amid market gyrations and some tempering of economic expectations since the June meeting. Accelerating infection counts attributable to the delta variant mean heightened attention on downside economic risks.” -- Andrew Husby, Eliza Winger and Niraj Shah Another potential venue would be a late-August speech at the Kansas City Fed’s conference at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Most economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect an early hint of tapering in August or September, when the FOMC will release quarterly forecasts, with actual implementation in early 2022. Powell is likely to deliver the keynote speech at the forum, as he has done every year since becoming chair in 2018. FOMC Statement The FOMC’s policy statement is likely to continue to reflect a positive outlook for growth as well as acknowledge higher inflation, while repeating that price gains largely reflect temporary factors. The committee could tweak its inflation language following a surge in the consumer price index to the highest level since 2008. One possibility would be using Powell’s characterization from his July 14-15 congressional testimony: “Inflation has increased notably and will likely remain elevated in coming months before moderating.” “An update to the inflation language that Powell used in his monetary policy testimony would be considered by market participants as being a slightly hawkish tilt -- slightly less confidence that it would be transitory,” said Kevin Cummins (NYSE:CMI), chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets. The FOMC could also specifically mention the delta variant, which would add emphasis to the need for patience in removing stimulus. Press Conference Powell is likely to acknowledge the FOMC continued its tapering discussions, while emphasizing patience and a commitment to achieving full employment. The chair is likely to be pressed on inflation following the most recent data, and whether Americans’ expectations are shifting, reflected in gains in recent consumer surveys. He’s also likely to be asked about threats to financial stability from surging housing prices and whether that tips the balance to reducing mortgage-backed securities at a faster rate once the taper begins. “Powell is likely to have a modest dovish tone” and say the FOMC is “watching and waiting here” before making any moves, said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. “Optionality and flexibility seem to be the right course at the moment.” Powell’s characterization of the recovery may be parsed not only by markets but by the White House. His four-year term as chair ends in February and while he’s deflected all questions on the matter, he has left a clear impression that he’d like to stay in the job. About 80% of economists expect President Joe Biden will make him the offer, according to the Bloomberg survey. ©2021 Bloomberg L.P. 28 July 2021. Investing.com
  12. LONDON (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks set to keep its stimulus running at full speed next week despite two policymakers breaking ranks to suggest that its nearly 900 billion pound ($1.2 trillion) bond-buying scheme might have to end early as inflation speeds up. Britain's economy is rebounding quickly from its almost 10% crash of 2020, when the country suffered a higher COVID-19 death toll and longer lockdowns than most other nations. With consumers back in shops, bars and restaurants and fuel prices leaping as the global economy fires up, inflation has sped past the BoE's 2% target and is on course to surpass 3%. Many investors are betting the BoE will raise interest rates before the U.S. Federal Reserve, even though the U.S. economy has already recovered its pre-pandemic size, unlike Britain's. Two BoE rate-setters - Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden and Michael Saunders - have said the time for tighter policy might be nearing, raising the prospect of the BoE curtailing its bond-buying programme sooner than planned. But colleagues have signalled they think the bigger risk would be to stop the bond-buying programme before its scheduled end in late 2021. That could hurt the still incomplete recovery in the world's fifth-biggest economy. Finance minister Rishi Sunak is phasing out furlough payments along with other parts of his pandemic safety net, and a recent slowing of COVID-19 cases could prove fleeting. "I think it will remain appropriate to keep the current monetary stimulus in place for several quarters at least, and probably longer," Monetary Policy Committee member Gertjan Vlieghe said on Monday. INFLATION SIGNALS Key to the BoE leaving the stimulus programme unchanged is its view that the jump in inflation will prove short-lived. In May, the BoE said it expected consumer price inflation would peak at about 2.5% in late 2021 although it was then forced to raise that to above 3% in an interim forecast in June. The new quarterly projections due on Aug. 5 are likely to see a new peak of 3.5%, which would nudge up the BoE's closely watched forecasts for inflation in two and three years' time to its 2.0% target, according to economists at HSBC. That would be taken by investors as an implicit backing of recent market pricing for a May 2022 hike of 15 basis points taking Bank Rate to 0.25%, up from its all-time low of 0.1% now, and a further 25 basis point hike a year later, they said. "This is more tightening and sooner than was expected in May, when the first 15 basis point move was not priced until early 2023," HSBC economist Elizabeth Martins said. Other economists expect the BoE to raise rates in the second half of 2022 or only in 2023. HOW TO TIGHTEN? Investors are also waiting for the BoE to publish new guidance on how it would sequence raising interest rates with shrinking its bond-buying programme, either by not reinvesting the cash from maturing bonds or by actively selling bonds. Vlieghe said on Monday that the BoE would publish its review "soon" but like other MPC members he declined to give precise details on any timing. Deutsche Bank (DE:DBKGn) economist Sanjay Raja predicted the BoE would announce its strategy next week and say that it was lowering the Bank Rate threshold at which it would start to unwind its balance sheet to 0.25% - much lower than the existing 1.5% trigger - or simply scrap the threshold altogether. That would allow the BoE to crack on with the task of shrinking its massive balance sheet, possibly in mid-2022. "Unlike the previous tightening, the MPC will target the Bank's balance sheet more so than the policy rate," Raja said. ($1 = 0.7239 pounds) By William Schomberg, 28th July 2021. Investing.com
  13. For more up to date news on how markets will open, the latest earnings and economic news, watch IGTV live in the platform at 07:30am UK. Today’s coverage: Olympics: UK now standing 6th in medals table in Tokyo behind JPN US CHI ROC AUS Indices: Drifting despite massive beat on tech earnings last night. Europe expected down as earnings deluge continues. HSI drop unabated FX: USD 2wk low ahead of US rates – Fed’s not expected to do or say much Equities: Massive day on earnings: ITV BATS MTRO GSK RIO BARC GSK DBK FB BA F MCD PFE - last night GOOG AMD MSFT all rise AAPL massive beat but stk slides amid chip shortage. MRW investor refuses bid attempt Commods: Oil holds recent gains gold has brief respite from recent drop
  14. GlaxoSmithKline Q2 revenue is expected to show revenue growth from newer drugs partially offset by increased generic competition in older drugs. Source: Bloomberg Shares GlaxoSmithKline Price Revenue Vaccine Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization Shaun Murison | Senior Market Analyst, Johannesburg | Publication date: Tuesday 27 July 2021 When is GlaxoSmithKline earnings date? The GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) earnings release date is scheduled for the 28 July 2021. The scheduled results will cover the groups second quarter and half-year earnings. GSK results preview: What does the street expect? While GlaxoSmithKline (in partnership with Sanofi Pasteur) look to stage three trials of their Covid-19 vaccine, the company has not yet released a vaccine to market. The global rollout of Covid-19 vaccines (by competitors) looks to have disrupted the course of other vaccine programmes in key markets such as the US and the UK for GSK. Revenue for second quarter (Q2) 2021 is expected to be bolstered by sales of newer drugs in the respiratory and HIV segments, with a partial offset from older drugs which are finding increased competition through generic offerings. In terms of the upcoming results, a mean of analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv data arrive at the following: Revenue $10.433 billion (+10.27%) year on year (YoY) Earnings before interest tax depreciation amortisation (EBITDA) $2.855 billion (-8.91% YoY) Earnings per share (EPS) $0.51 (+10.87% YoY) How to trade the GlaxoSmithKline results Source: Refinitiv A Refinitiv poll of analyst ratings arrive have a long term consensus rating of ‘buy’ for GlaxoSmithKline with a target price $47.87. GlaxoSmithKline (ADR) share price: technical analysis Source: IG The share price of GlaxoSmithKline continues to trade in an uptrend which has been in place since the beginning of March 2021. The price has however started to correct from near term highs. The correction sees the price now testing support at the 38.85 level. Traders looking for long entry might prefer to see a bullish price reversal around current levels accompanied by a sharper move out of oversold territory by the Stochastic oscillator. In this scenario, the recent high at 40.55 would become the initial resistance target, while a close below 38.35 could be used as a stop loss consideration for the trade. However should a bullish price reversal not manifest and we see the price move to close below both the 38.85 and 38.35 support levels, this could instead be a suggestion that the uptrend has failed and perhaps a new downtrend for the share price is forming. In Summary GSK reports Q2 2021 results on the 28 July Q2 revenue of $10.433 billion (+10.27% YoY) is expected Q2 EBITDA of $2.855 billion (-8.91% YoY) are expected EPS $0.51 (+10.87% YoY) in the Q2 are expected The average long term broker rating for GSK is a ‘buy’ The share price of GSK is testing support as it finds itself in a short-term correction of a longer-term uptrend
  15. Alibaba continues to enjoy strong revenue and customer growth, but the decline in its stock price reflects a bleaker outlook thanks to the actions of the Chinese government. Source: Bloomberg Shares Alibaba Group China Investor IPO Price Chris Beauchamp | Chief Market Analyst, London | Publication date: Tuesday 27 July 2021 When is Alibaba’s earnings date? Alibaba reports earnings on 3 August, covering its fiscal first quarter (Q1). Alibaba earnings – what to expect Alibaba is expected to report revenue of $32 billion, with earnings per share of $2.24. Alibaba continues to enjoy excellent growth, achieving one billion customers in the 2021 financial year (FY2021), with the vast majority of these based in China. Profit margins and revenues have risen at a steady pace in every year since 2013, at 10% and 23% respectively. However, for Chinese tech shares such as Alibaba, the main concern is no longer business performance, but the attitude of the Chinese government instead. The cancellation of the Ant Financial initial public offering (IPO) and the current clampdown on tutoring stocks points towards a much more restrictive approach to the private sector. As many could have predicted, the culture clash between free market capitalism and the controlling instincts of the Chinese Communist Party has begun anew, with the Party determined to rein in the perceived excesses of the free market. This is a situation unfamiliar to many investors, unused to the impact of government interference on most companies except in relatively isolated circumstances, and accounts for the underperformance of Chinese shares, with Alibaba no exception. Find out more on how to buy, sell, and short Alibaba shares Alibaba broker ratings A total of 17 analysts currently rate Alibaba as a ‘strong buy’, with 30 more at ‘buy’. Three analysts have a ‘hold’ rating, and only one ‘sell’. Alibaba stock – technical analysis The direction in Alibaba stock is clear for the time being. Rallies have been regularly sold, with the latest bounce in late June running into the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), currently 22,225. With the macro outlook so unfavourable the stock continues to reflect investor caution, so it looks like further declines are on the cards as the price targets 18,000 and lower. Source: ProRealTime A solid business, but outlook continues to darken Alibaba has plenty to commend it from a fundamental perspective, but with Beijing adopting an activist position the stock continues to decline. Investors might argue that this means Alibaba is becoming a bargain, but traders will want to see a turnaround in the price, which is unlikely to happen unless the Chinese government reduces its interventions.
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