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Fed Rate Reveal Promotes Stock Rally - EMEA Brief 29 Nov

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  • Fed hints that future interest rate rises may be lower than anticipated. Whilst Wall Street saw it's 5th biggest daily increase Asian stocks also gained as a result, the Nikkei saw a 0.9% increase whilst SoftBank rose over 3% and Nintendo a further 4%.
  • Trump announced yesterday that he is exploring new auto tariffs with a view to promote domestic production. This comes as part of an ongoing Trump Administration tariff war. 
  • Georgia elects first female president. Salome Zurabishvili won the vote with a 59% majority
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Limited was ordered to pay up to 150 million won to 28 South Koreans who were used as forced labour by the company in World War Two. 
  • Bitcoin gains heading for biggest increase since April. Providing some relief after the 32% loss this month
  • Intu takeover worth £2.8 Billion scraped. The shopping network cuts dividends in attempt to maintain construction investment. 

Asian overnight: Equities surged after Jerome Powell made a speech widely viewed as dovish. The S&P 500 posted its best day since March, with tech and consumer discretionary shares leading the way. Asian markets also bounced as investors pinned their hopes on a slowdown in the pace of Fed tightening after one more hike in December.

UK, US and Europe: Today’s FOMC minutes are something of an afterthought following the Powell speech, but we do have plenty of German and eurozone data, and investors should also watch out for US existing home sales, after new home sales fell to their lowest level since March 2016. Also watch UK banks, after the release of the BoE’s forecasts on a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario.

Russia-Ukraine frictions result in Ukraine calling on Nato to send ships to the Sea of Azov. This follows Russia opening fire on three Ukrainian ships on Sunday. Nato are yet to respond to this plea, however Chief Jens Stoltenberg on Monday called for Russia to free the Ukrainian ships and captive sailors. 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT)


8.55am – German unemployment (November): unemployment rate to hold at 5.1%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

10am – eurozone business confidence (November): forecast to rise to 1.14 from 1.01. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1pm – German inflation (November, preliminary): prices to rise 2.4% YoY from 2.5%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

1.30pm – US personal income & spending (October): income to rise 0.4% MoM and spending to rise 0.4% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (October): sales to fall 0.5%. YoY. Markets to watch: USD crosses

7pm – FOMC minutes: no change was made in policy, but the minutes will be key for USD movement this week. Markets to watch: USD crosses

11.30pm – Japan unemployment rate (October): rate to rise to 2.4% from 2.3%. Markets to watch: JPY crosses

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Unilever 10 year CEO Paul Polman to be succeeded by Alan Jope after retirement
  • Phoenix Group reported cash generation of £1.3 billion for 2018, exceeding its target of £1 - £1.2 billion. 
  • Rio Tinto will develop a ‘technologically advanced’ mine in Western Australia, with construction to start next year and production expected in late 2021. 
  • Revolut given permission to expand the fintech firm into Japan and Singapore

Adecco upgraded to buy at Goldman
Total upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan
Cobham upgraded to buy at Berenberg
Iliad upgraded to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley

BASF downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays
Equinor downgraded to underweight at JPMorgan
ISS downgraded to sell at Goldman
Senior downgraded to neutral at JPMorgan

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