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Asian Equities Sell-Off; Oil Plunges - EMEA Brief 25 Mar


GeorgeIG

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  • Shares in Asia fell more than 2% amid growing fears that a recession is on the horizon, Japan's Topix was impacted the most as the index dropped 2.5% at the close. The Hang Seng, ASX 200 and the Shanghai Composite followed and all fell by at least 1%.
  • Numerous reports over the weekend suggested that senior ministers were plotting to oust Theresa May as doing so could enhance support of her Brexit deal, although this has been denied. Mrs May is set to meet cabinet ministers today to update them on her strategy for Brexit.
  • Special Counsel Robert Mueller has concluded that Donald Trump did not collude with Russia during his 2016 Presidential campaign which lead to Trump tweeting "No Collusion, No Obstruction, Complete and Total Exoneration". Although, the summary by the Attorney General William Barr contradicts Trump's tweet as the findings were "inconclusive".
  • Brent crude plummeted 0.7% from its previous close down to $66.56 per barrel whilst WTI futures slipped 0.9% to $58.52 due to the yield curve inverting, which can be seen as a strong signal that a recession is looming.
  • Gold saw a 0.2% rise to $1,316.51.

South Africa: Global equity markets are are trading lower this morning as fears of a global economic slowdown reemerge. US Index Futures are continuing Friday's decline and Asian Indices trade 1.5% to 2% lower on the day. The rand now trades back at its worst levels of the last few weeks. Gold is trading modestly higher, copper is significantly lower and Brent crude has given up around 0.5%. Tencent Holdings is down 3% in Asia, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Group is down 1.3% in Australia, suggestive of a soft start for local resource counters.

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT)

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Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • British satellite operator Inmarsat has been sold for $3.4bn to a private equity consortium.
  • Uber is set to acquire Careem, a Dubai based rival taxi company, for a reported $3.1bn.
  • Majestic Wine is closing down its stores and will re-brand themselves as Naked Wine, CEO Rowan Gormley explained "Naked Wines has the potential for strong sustainable growth, and we will deliver the best results for our shareholders".

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    • Natural Gas Commodity Elliottwave Technical Analysis
      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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