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  1. Despite announcing a loss of 4 cents per share Snap shares soared in after-hours trading as the social media giant beat analysts expectations, the general consensus was that the company would report a net loss of 8 cents per share in Q4. Disney also beat expectations aided by the launch of its streaming service ESPN+ and sales increases in its theme park businesses, earning per share came in at $1.84 vs $1.55 expected. The Dow rose by 172 points, followed by a 0.47% increase in the S&P fueled by gains in the communication services and technology sector. The Nasdaq also saw a gain of 0.7% and closed at 7,402. President Trump announced on Tuesday that he will meet with Kim Jong Un in Vietnam at the end of February. Although progress has been made, the president believes a lot of work still needs to be done. Overall, we saw a largely subdued session in the Asian market due to the Lunar New Year holidays, with the exception of moves in the Australian markets. The Australian dollar fell by almost 1.3% against USD as the Reserve Bank of Australia said that rates could fall if unemployment increases and inflation stays too low. Gold slipped to $1,314.30 per ounce, a 0.1% drop from its previous close. If I had not been elected President of the United States, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with North Korea Asian overnight: A somewhat subdued session overnight saw marginal gains in the ASX 200 and the Nikkei, while the Topix lost ground. Chinese and Hong Kong markets remained closed for the Lunar bank holidays. The Australian dollar was the big mover overnight, after the RBA governor Lowe signaled that the next move could be to cut rates rather than raise them. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s state of the union address provided little of note for markets, with the President focusing on further promises to build a wall rather than laying out solutions to the impasse in US-China trade negotiations. UK, US and Europe: Trump addressed Congress during his second State of the Union on Tuesday night, announcing that he will meet the North Korean leader between the 27th - 28th of February. The two leaders met last year in Singapore which, according to Trump, was a huge success as he claimed that North Korea's nuclear weapons were no longer a threat to the US. In his address he acknowledge that there is still a lot of progress that needs to be made between the two countries, but claimed that "If I had not been elected President of the United States, we would right now, in my opinion, be in a major war with North Korea". Looking ahead, the early release of German factory orders represents the sum total of a quiet European session. Meanwhile, US trade balance, alongside US crude inventories provide the only major releases to watch out for in the afternoon. South Africa: US Index futures are pointing to a flat start to the day. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index are closed this morning on account of Lunar Holidays being celebrated within the region. With market moves minimal this morning there appears to be little in the way of scheduled news data to guide markets for the rest of the day. Commodity prices are relatively unchanged this morning and the rand trades at similar levels to where it closed yesterday. The BHP Group is up 1.67% higher in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local miners. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 1.30pm – US trade balance (November), GDP growth (Q4 preliminary): trade deficit to narrow to $54 billion from $55.5 billion, and GDP expected to grow by 2.6% QoQ, from 3.4%. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – Canada Ivey PMI (January): previous reading 59.7. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 1 February): stockpiles rose by 919,000 a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Apple has announced its retail chief, Angela Ahrendts, is set to leave the company in April citing "new personal and professional pursuits" as the reasoning behind her move away from the tech giant. Toyota cuts it net income outlook for 2019 due to "changes in US taxation rules" and "losses from equity sales". Severn Trent still expects to report full-year performance in line with forecasts, with its biggest capital spending plan in a decade on track. Redrow said that pre-tax profit rose 5% to £185 million for the first half, while revenue rose 9% to £907 million. The dividend was raised by 11%, to 10p per share, while a cash payment of 30p per share will also be paid. Victrex suffered an 18% fall in first quarter revenue, due to weakness in the automotive and consumer electronics markets. The firm said that it had seen some improvement in January and February. Profits at Daimler, the owner of Mercedes-Benz, decreased by nearly a third last year as earnings came in at €7.6bn down from €10.6bn previously. Interserve has announced this morning that they have reached a deal with creditors to cut its debt by issuing new shares through a rights issue, indicating that it will reduce liabilities by around £325m Alstria Office upgraded to buy at Kempen BP upgraded to buy at DZ Bank National Grid upgraded to outperform at RBC Paddy Power upgraded to hold at HSBC EON downgraded to underperform at Jefferies LVMH downgraded to hold at Jefferies Royal Mail downgraded to sell at SocGen TUI downgraded to hold at HSBC IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  2. Coffee giant Starbucks announced that same-stores sales grew by 4% in its home US market, with overall revenue also beating expectations. Speaking about the results, CEO Kevin Johnson said that "Our streamline efforts over the past six quarters are paying off by allowing us to bring more focus and discipline to our three strategic priorities". Talks are continuing in the US as the Senate tries to reach an agreement to end the government shutdown, which is now in its 34th day. The White house is pushing for "large down payments" for Trump's wall, however the Senate has already rejected two proposals as a deal including wall money "is not a reasonable agreement between senators". CEO of Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, has warned that investment into the UK could take a hit due to a hard Brexit as he told the BBC that Goldman has stopped hiring in the UK over the last two years. Westminster is due to vote on the withdrawal agreement from the EU again next week. Asian equities rose due to a rally in the technology sector, despite the continued uncertainty over US-China trade talks. The Hang Seng increased by 1.3%, followed by a 1% rise in both the MSCI Asia Pacific Index and Japan's Topix. Brent crude futures jumped 1.2% to $61.80 followed by WTI crude which rose by 1.3% to $53.82 per barrel, as the US indicates that they may impose sanctions on Venezuela's oil exports due to the continued political turmoil within the country. Gold remained steady at $1,282.08 per ounce. UK, US and Europe: Airbus issued a warning yesterday over Brexit, the company indicated that they may shift future wing-building out of the Britain if the UK end up in a no-deal scenario. As stated above, Goldman Sachs support the view of Airbus both of whom employ a considerable number of people in the UK, with the aerospace group employing around 14,000 people alone. Despite the doom and gloom the pound is up around 1.8% since Monday, due to investors speculating that the UK will likely avoid a hard Brexit. Despite the doom and gloom the pound is up around 1.8% since Monday US markets continue to flounder, having essentially gone nowhere all week, as trade concerns remain at the forefront of investors' minds. One bright spot was the semiconductor index, which rose 5.7%, enjoying its best day since 26 December. Markets are still unable to establish a clear direction, although the lack of any renewed sell-off similar to what we saw in December is helping to calm nerves. The German IFO index is the one event of note today, with the week otherwise set to end on a quiet note. There seems no end in sight to the US government shutdown, with Monday's scheduled barrage of US data unlikely to take place unless a resolution is found over the weekend. South Africa: We expect a positive start to equity markets this morning as US Index Futures trade firmer, led by the Nasdaq, while Asian markets trade firmer led by the tech sector as well. Comments that US President Donald Trump is optimistic about the current trade negotiations have helped lift sentiment in the near term. However the US secretary of Commerce is less optimistic and has commented that US and China remain far away from reaching a trade deal. The US dollar has since weakened against a broad basket of currencies. In turn we see the rand gaining ground to trade at its best levels of the week. Tencent Holdings is up 3.27% in Asia suggestive of a strong start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Group is up 1.3% higher in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local resource counters. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9am – German Ifo business climate index (January): expected to rise to 101.5, from 101. Market to watch: EUR crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Vodafone reported a 6.8% drop in revenue for the final three months of 2018, to €11 billion, but annual underlying organic adjusted earnings growth is still expected to be around 3%. AG Barr said that it expected full-year revenue to be up 5% over the year, thanks to strong performance across all brands. Indivior said that a US court had granted a temporary restraining order to prevent rival Alvogen from launching copycat drugs for its opioid addiction treatments. Deutsche Boerse Upgraded to Hold at Bankhaus Lampe Iberdrola Upgraded to Buy at HSBC NCC Upgraded to Buy at Citi AstraZeneca Upgraded to Buy at Shore Capita Swiss Life Downgraded to Neutral at MainFirst Intu Downgraded to Sell at Goldman Adecco Downgraded to Reduce at Oddo Fevertree Drinks Cut to Hold at Jefferie IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  3. Theresa May's government holds onto power, winning a no-confidence vote in parliament last night by 325 votes to 306. The Prime Minister has now set out to reach a cross-party solution for Brexit, although this will be extremely difficult as the PM was snubbed by the leader of the opposition last night saying that she is in charge of a "zombie government". Sterling remained steady as the currency traded around the 1.2875 mark against the dollar after, as expected, Mrs May's government won the vote of no-confidence. US equities closed higher on Wednesday after strong quarterly earnings by Bank of America and Goldman. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2% whilst the Dow increased by 140 points, both driven by the financial sector. The Nasdaq followed and increased by 0.15%. Stock markets in Asia were mixed as concerns continue over rising tensions between the US and China. Japan's Topix gained 0.4% at the close, followed by the MSCI Asia Pacific Index which added 0.1%. On the other side of this, the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng both slid by 0.1%. Oil slipped 0.5% down to near $52 per barrel as the US reach record output levels, counter-acting the signs of shrinking supply by OPEC+. Gold traded slightly lower at $1,291.65 per ounce. UK, US and Europe: Calls from the opposition and some leading Brexiteers for the Prime Minister to resign seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Last night, Theresa May's government survived a vote of no confidence tabled by Jeremy Corbyn, winning the vote by 325 to 306. It's unclear what is going to happen next in these extraordinary circumstances. Mrs May will seek further concessions from the EU in an attempt to get her 'Plan B' deal through the House of Commons, which the PM must layout to parliament next week. Looking ahead, earnings season continues with Netflix, Morgan Stanley and Taiwan Semiconductor posting results later today. It's unclear what is going to happen next in these extraordinary circumstances... South Africa: Last night saw US markets trading in positive territory led by gains within the banking sector after The Bank Of America reported better than expected earnings. Asian markets and US Index futures are however trading lower this morning tempering the previous days gains somewhat. Last night saw British Prime Minister Theresa May surviving a vote of no confidence in parliament, helping restore some stability in the British Pound. Oil and precious metal prices are trading modestly lower this morning, while base metals are trading positive on the day. Tencent Holdings is up 0.8% in Australia, suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is down 0.2% in Australia suggestive of a slightly weaker start for locally listed diversified resource counters. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) concludes its monetary policy meeting today where no change in lending rates is the expected outcome. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Primark announce this morning that like-for-like sales fell in the 16 weeks to the 5th of January caused by reduced footfall during November, according to the retailer. Fiserv is set to acquire payment processor First Data in a deal worth $22 billion in one of the largest deals we have seen in the financial technology industry. Bank of America shares soared by 7% yesterday after quarterly profit reached a record level of $7.3 billion. Goldman Sachs also beat expectations yesterday as earnings per share reached $6.05, beating estimates of $4.53, and posting revenue of $8.08 billion for the quarter. In a statement, CEO David Solomon said "We are pleased with our performance for the year, achieving strong top and bottom line results despite a challenging backdrop for our market-making businesses in the second half". Asset manager firm BlackRock profits fell short of expectations as the company's assets under management has fallen 5% over the last 12 months down to $5.98 trillion. IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  4. The US government remains in shutdown as Donald Trump addressed the nation yesterday on border security in an attempt to gain support and funding for his wall, claiming that there is a "Humanitarian and National Security crisis" in the US. A positive session for US equities yesterday amid US-China trade discussions optimism, the S&P increased by 0.97% whilst the Nasdaq rose 1.1%. The Dow climbed 250 points, as it registers its first three day positive streak since November last year. Asian shares also rallied due to the trade talks progress, the Shanghai Composite and Japan's Topix both rose by around 1.1%. Adding to this, Australia's ASX index climbed 1% whilst the biggest percentage increase came from Hong Kong's Hang Seng, which gained 2.4%. Oil prices followed the positive results from equities and increased by over 1%, WTI crude breached $50 per barrel for the first time since December whilst Brent was up 1.3%. Sterling and the Euro both appreciated against the Dollar, with the pound up 0.2% to $1.2741 followed by the Euro which is also up 0.2% to $1.1466 Flights at London's Heathrow airport were temporarily grounded yesterday evening as the military were called in after sightings of a drone, this is the second time in two months a drone has halted flights at major UK airports. UK, US and Europe: Investors are becoming more positive on the outlook of the global economy after somewhat recovering from the last years bear market, which was the worst year we have seen for equities since the financial crisis. Trade talks between the US-China are progressing which has caused equities to rally, especially US tech companies. FAANG stocks have experienced huge increases between Christmas Eve through to Tuesday's close with Netflix and Amazon being the biggest gainers, surging by 27% and nearly 37% respectively. Ryan Nauman, market strategist of Informa Financial Intelligence, has explained that "investors noticed that the FAANG stocks are solid companies and their valuations came down a lot after the big sell-off" and also alluded to the correlation between trade talks and performance of these stocks. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Reports are emerging that Apple is cutting production of its iPhone by 10% between January and March, this comes after the company reduced its revenue projections for 2019. Ted Baker announce that retail sales increased by 12.2% for the five week Christmas period to January the 5th, with online sales leading the way by increasing 18.7%. Saisnbury's posted disappointing Christmas sales this morning as like-for-like performance slipped by 1.1% over the Christmas period, with the retailing indicating its decision to reduce promotional activity has adversely impacted sales. Another retailer to post concerning results this morning is Mothercare, as like-for-like sales fall by 11% for the 13 week period to the 5th of January. IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  5. Asian equities began the new year in the red as Chinese manufacturing had a worse December than expectations, PMI dropped to 49.7 from 50.2 in November. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell by 2.4% and the Shanghai Composite declined by 1.2%, while the ASX 200 dropped by 1.6%. S&P futures mirrored the performance of Asian stocks and fell 0.9%, erasing earlier gains after Donald Trump indicated he may be willing to strike a deal to end the government shutdown in the US. Indian stocks also dropped as fiscal deficit concerns grow due to lower tax collection and a potential farm relief package proposed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whom is seeking re-election this year. The NSE Nifty 50 declined by 0.3%. The yen reached a six month high at 109.36 per dollar, rising 0.3%. The Aussie dollar fell 0.5%, whilst the Euro and pound were both down around 0.15% each. Investors 'safe haven' gold rose 0.3% to $1,286.04 per ounce. WTI crude slipped to $44.97 per barrel, falling around 1%, whilst Brent crude futures were down 1.4% to $53.05. Investors started the year concerned about the global economy coming off the back of the worst year for equities we have seen since the global financial crisis Asian overnight: Investors started the year concerned about the global economy coming off the back of the worst year for equities we have seen since the global financial crisis in 2008. China's manufacturing contracted for the first time in 19 months in December as a result of continued trade tensions between the US. Results from the Purchasing Managers' index (PMI), dropped to 49.7 in December, a reading below 50 generally indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity. The director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM group explained that the results "showed external demand remained subdued due to the trade frictions between China and the U.S., while domestic demand weakened more notably". UK, US and Europe: An annual survey conduced by the Financial Times has shown that economists are shying away from making forecasts regarding the outlook for the UK economy this year. Results highlighted that the majority of the economists that took part in the survey did not give a firm prediction for UK GDP for 2019, amid concerns over uncertainty around Brexit and global trade tensions. Looking ahead, we have a busy day ahead for data releases with PMI numbers due in the morning for the UK, Italy, France, Germany and Eurozone, the times of the releases can be seen below. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Deutsche Telekom has filed a lawsuit over a 5G auction against the German government, highlighting issues with a set of preconditions for participating in the auction. China National Tobacco Corp, the biggest cigarette maker in the world, has announced plans to IPO it's international business unit on the Hong Kong stock exchange. According to the Times, Iceland is facing a £21m bill for breaching minimum wage rules as staff voluntarily had sums taken from their wages which was then paid into a savings scheme, meaning pay had fallen below the national minimum wage. Playtech, a gambling software company, will pay £25.2m in a tax settlement with Israeli authorities following an audit of its financial accounts. IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  6. US equities rallied late on Thursday to close higher in a wild session which saw the Dow finishing 1.1% up, after initially falling over 500 points earlier in the day. The S&P and Nasdaq also fell 2.8% and 3.3% respectively, but both ended in positive territory after the late surge. Donald Trump is said to be considering an executive order which will ban US firms from using equipment built by Chinese companies ZTE and Huawei, according to a Reuters report. Overall, European markets fell in their first trading session post-Christmas. The Dax saw a slide of 2.8%, while the FTSE fell as the day continued ending down 1.5%. The Cac followed by falling 1.1%. Japanese 10-year government bond yields fell by three basis points taking it down to negative 0.004%. Gold rose 0.5% to $1,281.40 an ounce, which is its highest level in over six months. Crude oil also increased yesterday, the price increased to $45.75 a barrel - a 2.5% rise. UK, US and Europe: Thursday's roller coaster session comes after the historic rally on Wall Street on Wednesday, as the Dow surged over 1,000 points marking its biggest daily point gain. The early sell-off in yesterdays session was sparked by renewed trade tensions between US-China and weak US consumer confidence data for December. Dave Campbell, principal at BOS explained that "The uncertainty will continue to weigh on the market," and "I think that's going to help drive the volatility as we roll forward because I don't think it's going to be a clean path to an agreement or some kind of resolution." Large end of year FX swap rates: Please be aware that due to year end market factors we are seeing significant moves in the funding rates for most FX pairs. This has been observed across the market, although some pairs are looking to be worse affected than others (most notably if you are short US dollars). These factors include financial institutions balancing their books before the end of the year, putting a strain on certain currencies: Read more here Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) [ Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades The Defence Secretary has highlighted is "very deep concerns" regarding Huawei's involvement in the UK's mobile network upgrade. Cannabis retailer Green Growth Brands Ltd. plans to launch a hostile takeover bid for Aphria Inc. (APHA), which values the marijuana producer at nearly $2.1 billion. CentryLink, which provides telecommunication services to customers across 37 states, had significant internet and phone outages nationwide yesterday leaving its customers being unable to use their services. IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  7. Prime Minister Theresa May won a vote of no confidence in her leadership of the Conservative party last night. The results showed that Mrs May won the vote by 200 to 117, securing 63% of the total votes, she is now immune from any further vote's of no confidence for a year. GBP has fallen back from Wednesday's highs despite Theresa May successfully defending her leadership as investors believed she would win by a larger majority, the pound is currently trading at $1.2617 against the dollar. Several reports are suggesting that a second Canadian has been detained in China in what is believed to be a retaliation for the arrest of Huawei's CFO Meng Wanzhou, a spokesman said "we have been unable to make contact since he let us know he was being questioned by Chinese authorities". Asian equity markets ended positive on Thursday, the Hang Seng index was up slightly over 1%, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.06% whist the Shanghai Composite increased by 1.3%. The US stock markets ended up following on from the positive performance in Asia. The Nasdaq rose 1% to 7,098.31, followed by a 0.64% increase in the Dow and the S&P 500 which climbed 0.54%. Gold remained steady, currently being priced at $1,244.46 per ounce. Asian overnight: Asian markets have enjoyed another positive session off the back of improving relations between the US and China. The pound enjoyed a bullish session after Theresa May managed to fend off the vote of no confidence with 200 votes. However, she still faces the same problem of passing a bill that has little support. UK, US and Europe: Whats next for Mrs May after her victory in the vote of no confidence in her leadership last night? Pressure continues to mount as the Prime Minister now heads off to Brussels for an EU summit to seek concessions on the Irish backstop. EU leaders have already indicated that there will be no renegotiation on Brexit, however founder of G+ Economics, Lena Komileva, believes the chance of meaningful concessions "is actually quite strong". Having said this, Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg has said it was a "terrible result for the prime minister" and has called for her resignation, indicating a third of Tory MPs voted against her leadership. Looking ahead, the Swiss rate decision from the SNB is joined by the ECB monetary policy decision. The question is whether Mario Draghi will allow the asset purchase programme to end despite ongoing worries about eurozone fiscal and economic stability. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 12.45pm – ECB rate decision (1.30pm press conference): no change in policy expected, but with increased market volatility and a continuing stand-off with the Italian government dominating the news, the press conference may provide some insight about whether the bank is still confident about moving on rates later next year. Markets to watch: eurozone indices, EUR crosses 11.50pm – Japan Tankan large manufacturers index (Q4): index to rise to 22 from 19. Markets to watch: JPY crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Ocado said that revenue rose 12% to £390.7 million for the 13 weeks to 2 December, while average orders per week were up 13.1% to 320,000, but the average order size fell 1% to £104.91. Serco expects earnings per share to be ahead of forecasts by 5-10%, thanks to a lower effective tax rate. Trading profit for 2018 and 2019 is expected to be in line with forecasts. Bunzl said that it expects full-year revenue growth of between 8% and 9%, but a stronger pound was expected to hit performance. Johnson Matthey upgraded to buy at HSBC Pernod Ricard upgraded to hold at Liberum WPP upgraded to buy at Shore Capital Elementis downgraded to hold at HSBC Sabre Insurance cut to equal-weight at Barclays Ultra Electronics cut to underweight at Barclay IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  8. The US and China have agreed a temporary ceasefire on additional tariffs on each others goods at the G-20 summit in Argentina to allow for trade talks to continue in the new year. Dow futures soared more than 450 points as investors have reacted positively to the US-China news. Nasdaq futures also rose around 2.7%, followed by S&P 500 futures which jumped 1.7%. The dollar depreciated on Monday as investors looked to take up positions in riskier assets, such as the Australian dollar which rallied 0.75% and the New Zealand dollar which rose 0.5%. The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar versus six major currencies, traded down 0.36%. European markets are expected to open higher this morning, again as a result of the announcement to postpone tariff escalation. The FTSE 100 is currently trading at 7,087, 107 points higher, the DAX 208 points above it's previous close, whilst the CAC is set to open up 83 points. Asian equity markets also traded higher, the Shenzen composite rose 3.5% followed by the Shanghai composite which increased by 2.9%. The increases came following a data release from the Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index which indicated factory activity increased in China compared to last month. Oil prices surged on Monday due to the US-China trade war truce, WTI crude futures were up to $53.63 a barrel, up 5.4%, whilst Brent crude futures were up 4.8%. Qatar's Energy Minister has announced that the country will leave OPEC on the 1st of January 2019, alluding to a "technical and strategic" change to develop and increase natural gas production. UK, US and Europe: The European markets are set to rally after a ceasefire in the trade war between the US and China, after Trump and Xi reached an agreement over dinner in Buenos Aires on Saturday. The deal should see both China and the US hold off on additional tariffs on each other's goods for the next 90 days, whilst negotiations continue in a bid to reach a long-term agreement. Helen Qiao, China and Asia economist with Bank of Amarica Merrill Lynch, explained that "In contrast to the fear — especially in Asia —that the hawks in US administration would make impossible demands, evidence of President Trump working towards a trade deal with China has emerged". With the announcement of a 90-day truce in the US-China trade war, how will this impact commodities? We have seen a surge in the price of oil ahead of the much anticipated OPEC meeting, but what impact will it have on base metals? Join our #IGCommodityChat on Thursday 6 December at 1pm (UK time) to discuss how trade wars are affecting base metals with Author and Economist Daniel Lacalle and John Meyer, partner and analyst at SP Angel. Get involved in the debate by tweeting your questions to @IGTV or by commenting in the section below. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Netflix is under scrutiny by HMRC as the British operation declared sales of £23.9m, way below what the Times estimates the business generates. Convenience store chain McColl's has issued a profit warning today, as the company highlights the collapse of supplier Palmer & Harvey as a "significant supply chain disruption". Stobart Group has announced that dividends will be cut for the fourth quarter to 1.5 pence. The firm said in a statement "The board believes it is prudent financial discipline to use proceeds from further disposals in the medium term primarily to invest in value-creating opportunities based on sustainable operating cash generation and to maintain a strong balance sheet". IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  9. May will start her two-week campaign to sell her historic Brexit deal to MPs as EU leaders have agreed on the UK's Brexit deal during the summit held in Brussels over the weekend, outlining it is "the best and only deal possible". European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker explained that anyone who thinks that the EU will offer improved terms if MPs reject the deal will be left "disappointed" - MPs are expected to vote on the 12th of December. Asian equity markets had a mixed session on Monday afternoon as the energy sector declined due plunging oil prices. The Hang Seng index rose by 1.69%, followed by the Shanghai composite rising 0.29% and the ASX 200 which fell 0.86% - with the energy sub index down by 2.71%. Oil prices managed to reverse some losses after a near 8% drop in the previous "Black Friday" session, WTI crude futures were up 1% followed by Brent futures rising 1.6% to $59.71, although still below $60 per barrel and near Friday's low of $58.41. The deadly California wildfire, which started on the 8th of November, is now said to be 100% contained after destroying almost 14,000 homes and killing 85 people, with hundreds still missing. Tension between Russia and Ukraine escalates as Russia has opened fire and seized three Ukrainian naval vessels, injuring several crew members on-board. The countries are blaming each other for the incident, it's expected that Ukrainian MPs will vote on whether to declare martial law today. Bitcoin's sharp decline got worse over the weekend as the cryptocurrency entered into its largest sell-off since 2014 which is "really testing the faith of a few key players", the price dropped as low as $3,475 on Sunday. Asian overnight: A mixed Asian session saw a strong surge for Japanese and Hong Kong markets counteracted by weakness in China and Australia. That comes despite the careful optimism surrounding the upcoming trade talks between the US and China at the G20 summit. The weekend saw the EU27 ratify the Brexit proposal, in a move that should have pushed the pound higher. However, this barely happened, after the likeliness of parliamentary rejection was raised by Emmanuel Macron who stated that he would ensure the UK is forced into the backstop indefinitely unless his fishing related demands are met. Data-wise, we saw the New Zealand retail sales figures fall short of market expectations, with the core figure falling to the lowest level since 2016. We also saw Japanese manufacturing PMI fall to 51.8 from 52.9. Interesting to see the market reaction in the main session to the news of EU leaders approving the Brexit deal over the weekend UK, US and Europe: Theresa May will face immense pressure as she embarks on her Brexit battle to get her deal agreed in Westminster after the 27 leaders of the European Union approved the deal in just 38 minutes at the summit in Brussels. A recent report conducted by the National Institute o Economic and Social Research will not help her cause as it claimed that Mrs May's Brexit agreement will leave the UK £100 billion a year worse of by 2030. The potential Brexit deal has lead to many MPs venting their frustration publicly, including some of her fellow Tory "remainers". One of these is Sarah Wollaston, a conservative MP, as she explained that "I just don't think it's remotely possible that this deal would pass the commons", although she believes it's unlikely the UK will leave without a deal as MPs are "very opposed" to leaving without any deal at all. Having said this, EU leaders have warned British MPs about the risks of voting the Brexit deal down in a bid to aid the Prime Minister in getting the agreement through parliament. Jean-Claude Juncker reflected on an overall "sad day" but told reporters "I'm inviting those who have to ratify this deal in the House of Commons to take this into consideration: this is the best deal possible for Britain, this is the best deal possible for Europe, this is the only deal possible". Interesting to see the market reaction in the main session to the news of EU leaders approving the Brexit deal over the weekend. Looking ahead, much of the focus remains on Europe, with the German Ifo business climate survey providing the one major economic release of the day. Meanwhile, appearances from Draghi and Carney later in the day should ensure the EUR and GBP volatility is maintained in the wake of the weekend’s Brexit vote. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9am – German IFO (November): business climate index to rise to 103.2 from 102.8. Markets to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – Chicago Fed nat’l activity index (October): expected to rise to 0.4 from 0.1. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Rio Tinto has sold its controlling stake in a Namibia uranium mine to a Chinese firm, fro up to $106.5 million. AstraZeneca said that the US FDA had granted an orphan drug designation for its autoimmune disease treatment. General Motors has announced plans to close it's Canadian plant which employs 2,200 workers. The board of Mitsubishi Motors are set to meet today to discuss the removal of Carlos Ghosn from his role as chairman due to his arrest for alleged financial misconduct. Vecture Group will incur a £40 million loss after it's astma drug trial failed, the chief medical officer said "Although we are disappointed that these results missed statistical significant, I remain confident in our proprietary technology and development capabilities". Allianz upgraded to overweight at Barclays Panalpina upgraded to buy at Jefferies Saipem upgraded to buy at HSBC Wood upgraded to buy at HSBC Altice Europe downgraded to outperform at RBC Pennon downgraded to sector perform at RBC Severn Trent downgraded to outperform at RBC IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  10. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit ended on Sunday with leaders failing to agree on a formal joint statement for the first time in its 25-year history, due to disagreements on trade. Chinese President Xi Jinping expected to gain influence in the Pacific as Trump and Putin decided not to attend the summit, however Xi left disappointed as the US and allies made it clear that they are prepared to use economic and military means to counter China's influence. Asian equities were mixed in afternoon as market volatility continues, the Nikkei rose by 0.5%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.6% and the Shangahi Composite also climbed 0.2%. Australia's ASX 200 dipped by 0.6%. Southeast Asia's second biggest economy, Thailand, slowed in its third quarter as GDP showed no growth from the second due to tourism and exports weakening, a Reuters poll expected growth to be around 0.6%. Theresa May continues to defend her Brexit withdrawal agreement and indicates that she has "never thought about giving up" despite continued pressure from fellow Tories calling for her to resign. The next round of battling for Mrs May comes today at the CBI conference in London where Jeremy Corbyn is also expected to attend. Oil prices have increased by approximately 1% due to expectations that Saudi Arabia, the top exporter of oil, will push OPEC to reduce supply by around 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of the year. One of the leaders of the Houthi movement, Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, announced yesterday that he is ready to initiate a ceasefire in Yemen as long the opposing Saudi-led coalition is prepared to do the same. Asian overnight: Asian markets were largely higher overnight, with the Australian ASX 200 providing the one outlier to the wider bullish story. Chinese stocks led the way, with the Shenzhen composite rising almost 1% despite ongoing uncertainty in relation to US-China trade ties. No doubt investors will be monitoring Trump's upcoming meeting with Xi in Buenos Aires for the G-20 meeting, interesting to see how talks develop UK, US and Europe: Brexit issues remain key for the UK, with weekend suggestions of an extended transition period from Michel Barnier seeing the pound grind lower overnight. A somewhat quiet start to the week on the economic calendar means that traders will be heavily focused on any advancements in the plot to oust Theresa May amid a potential vote of no confidence. Boris Johnson has been extremely vocal in his dismay over the draft Brexit deal in his column on the Telegraph, calling it an "appalling sell-out" as he lays out his own plans for the UK's withdrawal from the EU - a "SuperCanada" style trade deal. The relationship between the US and China continues to be strained after the APEC conference over the weekend. Vice President Mike Pence piled pressure on China in his address as he explained that "China has taken advantage of the United State for many, many years and those days are over". No doubt investors will be monitoring Trump's upcoming meeting with Xi in Buenos Aires for the G-20 meeting, interesting to see how talks develop. The meeting is expected to take place between the 30th of November to the 1st of December. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades BHP Billiton has settled a dispute with the Australian government relating to sales of raw materials. The firm will pay £386 million in additional taxes. McBride has sold its European personal care liquids business to Royal Sanders Group for £12.5 million. LondonMetric said it sold its retail park in Ipswich for £22 million. TSB appoints Debie Crosbie as new CEO, replacing Paul Pester whom resigned after the banks IT downfall which left nearly two million customers losing access to online banking services earlier this year. Fairfax, an Australian based media company, has got the approval of its shareholders to merge with Nine Entertainment which will cause a huge shake-up of the Australian media industry. Bakkafrost upgraded to neutral at SpareBank Novartis upgraded to buy at Goldman Oerlikon upgraded to buy at SocGen Arkema downgraded to sell at Goldman Swatch downgraded to neutral at MainFirs IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  11. Theresa May faces a crucial cabinet meeting today at 14:00 UK time as she seeks support from senior ministers for her draft Brexit deal between the EU and the UK. In light of the news of a potential Brexit deal being agreed, the pound rose 0.12% against the dollar on Wednesday morning and 0.16% against the Euro. The US equity markets generally ended down as Wall Street fails to claw-back earlier losses from the lackluster performance of the energy sector. The S&P slipped 0.2%, it's fourth straight decline, the Dow fell by around 100 points and the Nasdaq closed flat. US crude has dipped 7% settling at $55.69, a one year low, which has sent the energy market into a sell-off mode as OPEC and other oil producers have been increasing output as well as exemptions granted by the US on buying oil from Iran. However, we may see a correction soon as producers will meet next month to discuss the supply of oil. Overall a mixed session for Asian stocks on Wednesday after varied results on China's economy and the oil drop. Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9%, the Hang Seng dropped 0.8% and Japan's Tropix Index saw an increase of 0.2%. Interesting news surrounding digital money, as the IMF indicates that central banks should consider issuing digital currencies. Head of the IMF Christine Lagarde said whilst speaking in Singapore "I believe we should consider the possibility to issue digital currency. There may be a role for the state to supply money to the digital economy". Asian overnight: A mixed session overnight saw gains in Japan counteracted by weakness across most of the other major markets. The Australian ASX 200 was the notable under-performer, falling over 1% thanks to substantial weakness across the energy sector in the wake of the crude decline. That decline was partly down to the OPEC monthly report which saw markets shift focus onto the oversupply that seems likely in 2019. Data-wise, we have seen a whole host of economic releases, with Japan falling into negative growth for Q3 (-0.3%), while Chinese releases fared somewhat better given the rise in fixed asset investment and industrial production. Interesting to see trader sentiment today in the UK and European markets as a volatile session is expected, will we see the markets go in the green or is it still to early too get behind this Brexit deal? UK, US and Europe: The main focus of today is likely to be on Brexit concerns, given yesterday’s breakthrough in talks. The final agreement is far from assured a safe passage, and thus the market reaction is likely to be heavily impacted by the ability to pass through Parliament. With that in mind, expect sterling volatility, with any signals of how the votes might go likely to play a major role. Also watch out for the latest inflation data, with UK CPI expected to rise to 2.5% today. In mainland Europe, markets will be keenly following the latest eurozone Q3 GDP number, alongside the industrial production figure. Finally, the US follows on from the UK with the inflation theme, where CPI is expected to rise to a nine-month high. The news of a potential Brexit agreement will have eased investors fears over a no-deal scenario, we've already seen an increase in the value of sterling due to the announcement. The deal addresses the Northern Ireland backstop, one of the most highly contentious issues which was creating a dead-lock in getting a deal over the line. It is believed that the draft deal aims to avoid a hard border with Northern Ireland by keeping the UK aligned with the EU customs union for some time. However, this has caused many Brexiteer's and the DUP, who have a confidence and supply agreement with the Tories, to question exactly how this proposal will work in practice. Interesting to see trader sentiment today in the UK and European markets as a volatile session is expected, will we see the markets go in the green or is it still too early to get behind this Brexit deal? Not everyone was pleased with the announcement of this potential Brexit deal. Jacob Rees-Mogg announced he could withdraw his backing for Theresa May as "She hasn't so much as stuck a deal as surrendered to Brussels and given in to them on everything that they want and tried to frustrate Brexit". Fellow Brexiteer Boris Johnson claimed that "this is just about as bad as it could possibly be", if the leaked reports about the deal are true. Lookout for breaking news after the crunch cabinet meeting today, which is scheduled to go ahead at 14:00 UK time. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in GMT) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK CPI (October): prices to rise 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY from 0.1% and 2.4% respectively. Core CPI to be 2.2% from 1.9% YoY. Market to watch: GBP crosses 10am – eurozone GDP (Q3, 2nd estimate): QoQ growth to be 0.2% from 0.4%. Market to watch: EUR crosses 1.30pm – US CPI (October): prices to rise 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY, from 0.1% and 2.3% respectively. Core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM from 0.1%. Market to watch: USD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Numerous reports suggesting that airline Flybe has been put up for sale after issuing a dramatic profit warning less than one month ago, the company's shares have fallen nearly 75% since September. SSE has announced losses of £246.4m for the six months to the 30th of September, the chairman of the British energy firm said "This is disappointing and regrettable, but important changes are now being made to the way SSE manages its exposure to energy commodities". WeWork has reported that Japanese technology group Softbank has invested a further $3bn into the office space provider. Smiths Group plans to separate out its underperforming medical division from the rest of the firm/ Q1 trading revenue fell 1%, thanks to good growth at the energy division that offset poorer performance at its medical unit. Underlying growth for the full-year is still expected to match last year’s. Workspace Group suffered an 18% fall in first-half profit, to £101.6 million, although net rental income rose 17% to £35.4 million. The dividend was raised by 20% to 10.61p. British Land said that first half underlying profit fell 14.6% to £198 million, and added that the retail market remained challenging. Auto Trader upgraded to buy at Peel Hunt Burberry upgraded to add at AlphaValue Tullow upgraded to hold at Panmure Gordon BB Biotech downgraded to hold at Baader Helvea ThyssenKrupp downgraded to hold at HSBC Rio Tinto downgraded to sell at Liberu IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  12. GeorgeIG

    ADX Indicator

    Hi, The ADX indicator is called 'Directional Movement' on the IG charts. You'd need to right click on the chart go to Indicators and then select Directional Movement, as seen below.
  13. US mid-term elections have resulted in a gridlock in Washington, Trump's Republican Party hold the senate having had key victories in Texas, Indiana and North Dakota. The Democrats have gained control of the House of Representatives which has set up a divided Congress until the next presidential election in 2020. The dollar has dipped as the dust settles on the results of the mid-terms, the Euro and Yen both rose 0.2% against the dollar. The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, was also down. The Asian markets reversed earlier gains as results began to filter in from the mid-terms, the Hang Seng dipped 0.2% and Tokyo's Tropix fell 0.4% after initially gaining 1.2%. The Nikkei also saw a late fall and finished down 0.28% as investors locked in profits after the news broke that the Democrats took control of the House of Representatives. Shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer has announced that if MPs are left "blind" as to the details of the UK's future relationship with EU the Labour party will vote against a Brexit deal, increasing the pressure on Theresa May. Oil prices dipped as the US allowed buyers of Iranian oil sanction wavers, US crude fell 0.56% whereas Brent slipped 0.25%. UK, US and Europe: Trump had declared victory in the US midterms as he wrote in Twitter "Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!", although he will face increased challenges when attempting to push through policies due to the Republicans losing the House. US equities traded slightly higher as the mid-term results went generally as expected, S&P futures traded 0.3% higher. Dow Jones futures were also up around 0.4%, followed by Nasdaq futures rising 0.6% as markets welcomed the fact that there were few surprises at the polls. However it's not all good news, according to the chief strategist at CCB International Securities, people could view investing in the US as being less appealing due to the more divided political landscape stating it "could be quite disruptive". Interesting to see how the European markets react to the results, as major European indices are generally expected to react positively to the notion of no news is good news. The lack of clarity over the terms of the UK's divorce from the EU is causing concern in Westminster. Ahead of his meeting with EU officials today, the shadow Brexit secretary reminded May that MPs have been promised a "detailed, precise and substantive" Brexit agreement that parliament will be allowed to vote on. On Tuesday, the Prime Minister indicated to her cabinet that she is confident of agreeing a deal with the EU, but reiterated that it would not be "done at any cost" as deliberation continues over the contentious issue of the Irish boarder. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Adidas has lowered revenue expectations for the full year after releasing their third quarter results, previously forecasts were 10% while the sports giant now expects growth of between 8% - 9%. BMW has announced a fall in profits in their Q3 results as operating profit fell 27%, which was below expectations, as the firm indicates high research and development costs has impacted profits. ITV has warned that advertising revenue is expected to be down around 3% in Q4 after reporting a marginally better than expected 2% rise in 9-month ad revenue. Pre-tax profits at Marks & Spencer have rose 7.1% to £126.7 million within the last six months, however revenue was down 3.1%. Food, M&S's largest turnover business unit, revenue fell by 0.2% due to "tough trading" conditions in the competitive landscape. IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  14. Trade tensions between the US and China have finally shown signs of easing as Donald Trump described the conversation he had with Xi on Thursday as "long and very good" and later tweeted that trade discussions were "moving along nicely". Chinese stocks rally in afternoon trading following Trump's tweet, as the Shanghai Composite rose 2% along with a 3.5% increase in Hong Kong's Seng index. US stocks also reacted positively to the potential progress of US-China trade relations. The Dow gained 264.98 points, the Nasdaq rose 1.8% ahead of Apple's quarterly earnings whilst the S&P climbed 1.1%. Investors reacted negatively to Apple's earnings for its fiscal Q4 as the tech giant missed shipment estimates on iPhone's and announced major changes to its reporting, shares tumbled more than 7% and fell below the historic $1 trillion market cap. Good news for Brexit? The EU has floated a compromise on a plan for the Northern Ireland boarder that would give the UK stronger guarantees that a customs border would not be needed along the Irish Sea, the UK is expected to respond to the compromise next week. The dollar has appreciated 0.3% against the yen, mending the previous day's losses. Aussie dollar extended its rally following the positive news regarding China and the US, as AUD increased 0.5% against USD. Oil continues to decline as US crude prices fall 2.5% to $63.69, it lowest level in seven months due to US sanctions on Iran coming into full force next week and continued global tensions with Saudi Arabia. Asian overnight: Sharp gains across the board overnight have reflected improving optimism over a potential trade deal between the US and China, with Chinese and Hong Kong markets rising over 3% in the session. News of the positive talks between Trump and Xi Jinping have helped reverse some of the Yuan losses, with the Chinese currency hitting the highest level in three-weeks. Data-wise, the Australian retail sales figure came in below estimates, falling to 0.2% from 0.3%. have we seen an end of the October sell-offs or is the market overreacting to tweet from Trump? UK, US and Europe: The news of Trump's phone call with President Xi has eased investors fears of a prolonged trade war between the two nations, as equity markets begin November with a broad rally after a rough October. There have been reports that the US president has gone as far as asking officials to draft a preliminary proposal for a potential trade deal with China. Interesting day ahead for the markets, have we seen an end of the October sell-offs or is the market overreacting to tweet from Trump? Watch out for volatility today as the eagerly watched US Non-farm payrolls announcement is due at 12:30 UK time. Looking ahead, we have the second UK PMI reading of the week, with the construction sector coming under scrutiny in the wake of yesterday’s disappointing manufacturing PMI survey. This is released alongside a host of other PMI surveys throughout Europe, yet for the most part, it is the UK release which is an initial figure rather than a revision. Looking at the afternoon, the US and Canadian jobs reports are expected to bring about a sharp rise in volatility for the dollar and Canadian dollar. On the corporate front, watch out for earnings data from Berkshire Hathaway, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 9.30am – UK construction PMI (October): forecast to rise to 52.5 from 52.1. Markets to watch: GBP crosses 12.30pm – US non-farm payrolls (October), trade balance (September): payrolls expected to be 189K from 134K a month earlier,, unemployment rate to hold at 3.7%, and average hourly earnings to rise 0.3%. Trade balance to see deficit narrow to $52.4 billion from $53.2 billion. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 12.30pm – Canada employment report (October): 25K jobs forecast to have been created, from 63,300 a month earlier, and unemployment rate to hold at 5.9%. Markets to watch: CAD crosses Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades The CEO of DNA sequencing firm Illumina Francis deSouza has announced plans to purchase Pacific Biosciences for $1.2 billion. Macquaire Group has increased its expected earnings, it reported annual profits will be up 10% compared to last year as the investment bank eyes a record profit. ING underlying profit up in Q3 to 776 million euros, beating expectations in spite of the firms 775 million euro money laundering penalty. Starbucks shares have rallied as the company reported better than expected earnings and same store sales growth in its fiscal Q4. Barclays has confirmed that their chairman, John McFarlane, will retire as chairman in May next year and will be replaced by Nigel Higgings, current deputy chairman of Rothschild & Co. Paddy Power Betfair has upgraded annual guidance thanks to a good period for its new US business. Underlying earnings are now expected to be between £465 and £480 million, from a previous £460 to £480 million. IAG said that it now expects earnings to hit €7.2 billion per year for the 2018-2022 period, up from the previous estimate of €6.5 billion. It also raised its targets on capital expenditure and its target for average seat per kilometre growth. Axel Springer upgraded to buy at HSBC BAE upgraded to outperform at Credit Suisse Big Yellow Group upgraded to buy at Kempen & Co DS Smith upgraded to buy at Vertical Research Bilia cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux Deutsche Post downgraded to hold at HSBC Panalpina downgraded to reduce at HSBC Wirecard downgraded to underperform at BofAML IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
  15. Deutsche Bank has kicked off the banking season in Europe today as the bank announced a net profit of €229 million, with analysts expecting a profit of €149 million, as the investment bank branch loses ground. Barclays has followed by beating expectations as net income came in at £1 billion vs. £723 million expected, Jes Staley announced he is "very pleased" with the Q3 results. The EU continues to mount pressure on the Italian government as Valdis Domborvskis, vice-president of the European Commission, has told Italy that it’s budget is “not sufficient” highlighting issues with further increasing debt in Italy. The Dow ended 126 points lower but recovered from the earlier 500-point loss during the day, as corporate results from Caterpillar and 3M disappointed. Nasdaq closed 0.4% lower whilst the S&P 500 slipped 0.6% Japanese manufacturing expanded to its fastest rate in six months In October a preliminary survey indicates PMI rising to 53.1, up from 52.5 in September. China's Shanghai Composite slipped 2.3% on Tuesday, counteracting the surge seen on Monday. China is in a state of doing "whatever it takes" to put an end to its stock market falling, as President Xi Jinping pledges to provide unwavering support for the Chinese private sector. Oil prices plunged more than 4% yesterday amid concerns amongst investors about increasing global tensions with Saudi Arabia and slowing global economic growth. Saudi Arabia's minister of energy has attempted to assure the markets that the Khashoggi scandal will not impact the supply of crude oil, with little success so far. Asian overnight: Asian stocks managed to arrest their recent slide, with markets throughout China, Japan and Hong Kong gaining ground overnight. The one outlier to this recovery came from the Australian ASX 200, which lost ground thanks to a sharp decline in the energy sector. With Saudi Arabia promising to keep the oil market well supplied, we saw a sharp decline in crude prices throughout the night despite an attempted rebound. Recent fears over the trade war impact on the Chinese economy have clearly shook stocks in Asia, and with the Italy-EU standoff looking set to rumble on, a risk-off sentiment is likely to stick around for some time yet. Trump's relationship with the Fed and China-US relations will be intriguing to follow over the coming days and how both factors impact trader sentiment UK, US and Europe: The US stock market is still in a sell-off state as the S&P 500 recorded its fifth straight decline, with all other major indices down at least 4.8% for the month of October. The driving force for the sell-off is the on-going trade tensions with China, which do not seem to be easing as Chinese government leaders indicate that they are not scared of a trade war with the US. Adding to this, Donald Trump continues his assault on the American central bank, when speaking to the Wall Street Journal he claimed that the Fed is the "biggest threat to the US economy", adding further scepticism around the US stock market. Trump's relationship with the Fed and China-US relations will be intriguing to follow over the coming days and how both factors impact trader sentiment in the US market. Looking ahead, we have a host of PMI releases from both Europe and the US. Preliminary eurozone PMI for France, Germany and the eurozone cover both services and manufacturing sectors, while the afternoon sees those same sectors covered by Markit for the US. The big release of the day comes from Canada, where the BoC is expected to raise rates once more. Keep an eye out for CAD volatility. Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST) Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar 8.15am – 9am – French, German, eurozone mfg & services PMI (October, flash): eurozone mfg reading to rise to 54.4 and services to rise to 55.1. Market to watch: EUR crosses 2.45pm – US mfg services & mfg PMI (October, flash): mfg index to hold at 55.6, while services rises to 53.9. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses 3pm – Bank of Canada decision: rates expected to rise to 1.75% from 1.5%. Market to watch: CAD crosses 3pm – US new home sales (September): expected to rise 0.5% MoM. Market to watch: USD crosses 3.30pm – US EIA crude inventories (w/e 19 October): stockpiles to rise by 1.9 million barrels from 6.49 million a week earlier. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades Barclays said Q3 profit fell to £3.12 billion from £3.45 billion, although excluding litigation and conduct charges group pre-tax profit was up 23% to £5.3 billion. Wells Fargo has been hit with a $65 million fine related into an investigation into statements made to investors regarding alleged fraudulent claims to "cross-sell" its business model. Caterpillar's disappointing results saw the stock closed 7.6% lower as the company highlights issues with increasing costs due to global trade conditions. Deutsche Bank report net profit of €229 million, a 65% fall in profits, in the third quarter amid the restructuring of the companies leadership. Analysts expected a sharper decrease than reported, a Reuters poll expected a net profit of €149 million. Another bank that has reported earnings today is Metro Bank, the company announced pre-tax profits of £39.2 million which is three times than the amount recorded in the same period of the previous year. Stobart saw a net loss of £17.5 million for the first half, compared to a profit of £111.9 million a year earlier. Revenue was up 21% to £151.3 million, while the dividend was raised 20% to 9p per share. Beer company Heineken has revealed impressive sales as volume grew by 9.2% and net profit increased to €1.606 million, fueled by warm weather in Europe. Shares in 3M slipped as much as 8.4% before recovering and trading at about 3.3% lower than its open, due to quarterly revenue missing expectations and adjusting its earnings perspective for 2018. Banco BPM upgraded to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux Datagroup upgraded to hold at Baader Helvea Salvatore Ferragamo raised to neutral at MainFirst Wartsila upgraded to buy at ABG Baader Bank downgraded to hold at HSBC Bayer downgraded to add at AlphaValue Cineworld downgraded to equal-weight at Barclays GAM Holding downgraded to neutral at MainFirst IGTV featured video Information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.
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