Jump to content

BoE rate changes this week? - EMEA brief 30 July

Sign in to follow this  

  • Asian overnight equity markets broadly subdued for central banks data test. 
  • Dollar steady and range bound before key central bank meetings this week.
  • Oil is mixed, however brent has eased as trade tensions continue to weigh.
  • Gold prices have eased on the slightly stronger dollar.
  • With Facebook, Twitter and Intel results all disappointing last week, the street may be cautious with the release of Apple's end of year tomorrow.

Asian overnight: Overnight markets have started the week in a downbeat fashion, with losses across Chinese, Hong Kong, Japanese, and Australian markets amid a week of possible monetary tightening from the BoE and (potentially) the BoJ. The Nikkei is down 0.75%, as we lead into this week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting. With US tech stocks failing to perform on Friday, that uncertainty has carried through into this new week, with earnings season likely to continue dominating sentiment. Data-wise, Japanese retail sales rose to 1.65; marginally lower than the 1.7% expected.
UK, US and Europe: Global markets are trading softer this morning with US Index Futures continuing Friday's decline which was led by the US Tech sector (after Twitter results disappointed). Looking ahead, today represents a very quiet day on the economic calendar, with little to no major events to keep an eye out for. As we enter the start of a new month, this lull will not last long, with events coming thick and fast towards the second half of the week. The dollar has firmed since Friday's strong GDP print. On the corporate front, watch out for earnings figures from Caterpillar, Loews Corp, and Electronic Arts. More results listed below.

South Africa: Precious metals and base metals trade softer this morning after gains on Friday. The rand is slightly weaker although still well its worst levels of the month. BHP Billiton is down 0.6% in Australia, suggestive of a lower start for local diversified mining counter. Tencent Holdings is down 2.57% suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. 

Earnings look ahead: Catapillar look to releases results today, follower by Standard Chartered, Coats Group, Ralph Lauren, Pfizer, Procter and Gamble and Apple tomorrow. Wednesday will see Capita, BAA Aviation, BAE Group, Molson Coors, Metlife and TripAdvisor releases results, with a trading statement coming from Next.Aviva, the LSE Group, Inmarsat, Duke Energy, MGM Resorts and Yum! Brands will be on Thursday, whilst Heinz, Essentra and Noble Energy see off the end of the week. 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

10am – eurozone business confidence (July): forecast to rise to 1.4 from 1.39. Market to watch: EUR crosses

1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): expected to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (June): forecast to fall 1.5% YoY from -2.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Hiscox saw a strong start to 2018, with the insurance firm seeing a 21% growth in gross premiums written for H1. They saw profit before tax rise 21%, to $154 million, with the firm on track to exceed over 1 million customers in 2018.
  • Senior posted a 31% rise in pre-tax profit compared with last year, with the firm trading slightly ahead of expectations. The Group delivered another strong cash performance, with good margin progression in both Aerospace and Flexonics. Interim dividend increased has been raised by 6.8%, to 2.19p per share.
  • Hulamin headline earnings per share for the interim period declined by 77% from the prior years comparative period.
  • Massmart An updated interim trading statement showed headline earnings expected to be between 16% and 26% lowr than the prior years comparative period. 

Featured Video

Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

Sign in to follow this  


Recommended Comments

There are no comments to display.

Join the conversation

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Blog Statistics

    • Total Blogs
    • Total Entries
  • Latest Forum Topics

  • Our picks

    • A US-China trade deal?; hope for Brexit breakthrough; IMF updates on economic outlook - DailyFX Key Themes
      UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar stirred hope when they both offered enthusiasm after their meeting, saying there was a “pathway” forward as they discussed the contentious border. That was followed by a meeting between the EU’s main negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit minister Stephen after which it was stated they 'look forward to these intensified discussions in the coming days'. Though nothing material has yet been agreed to, this seems like a meaningful break owing to the language alone. Neither side has voiced confidence in their discussions for some time, so this does represent a significant change. 
      • 0 replies
    • Dividend Adjustments 14 Oct - 21 Oct
      Please see the expected dividend adjustment figures for a number of our major indices for the week commencing 14 Oct 2019. If you have any queries or questions on this please let us know in the comments section below. For further information regarding dividend adjustments, and how they affect  your positions, please take a look at the video. 
      • 0 replies
    • Trade wars; recession fears grow; gold's position - DailyFX Key Themes
      We have been unofficially engaged in a global trade war since March 2018. That is when the United States moved forward with a tariff on imported metals (steel and aluminum) from any destination outside of the country.

      As it currently stands, we are still awaiting another wave of products receiving a hefty tariff rate upgrade in approximately two months’ time while talks are set to resume on Thursday between the two parties. That said, reports over the weekend indicated China was not impressed with the Trump administration’s most recent efforts to find middle ground.
      • 0 replies