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BoE rate changes this week? - EMEA brief 30 July



  • Asian overnight equity markets broadly subdued for central banks data test. 
  • Dollar steady and range bound before key central bank meetings this week.
  • Oil is mixed, however brent has eased as trade tensions continue to weigh.
  • Gold prices have eased on the slightly stronger dollar.
  • With Facebook, Twitter and Intel results all disappointing last week, the street may be cautious with the release of Apple's end of year tomorrow.

Asian overnight: Overnight markets have started the week in a downbeat fashion, with losses across Chinese, Hong Kong, Japanese, and Australian markets amid a week of possible monetary tightening from the BoE and (potentially) the BoJ. The Nikkei is down 0.75%, as we lead into this week's Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting. With US tech stocks failing to perform on Friday, that uncertainty has carried through into this new week, with earnings season likely to continue dominating sentiment. Data-wise, Japanese retail sales rose to 1.65; marginally lower than the 1.7% expected.
UK, US and Europe: Global markets are trading softer this morning with US Index Futures continuing Friday's decline which was led by the US Tech sector (after Twitter results disappointed). Looking ahead, today represents a very quiet day on the economic calendar, with little to no major events to keep an eye out for. As we enter the start of a new month, this lull will not last long, with events coming thick and fast towards the second half of the week. The dollar has firmed since Friday's strong GDP print. On the corporate front, watch out for earnings figures from Caterpillar, Loews Corp, and Electronic Arts. More results listed below.

South Africa: Precious metals and base metals trade softer this morning after gains on Friday. The rand is slightly weaker although still well its worst levels of the month. BHP Billiton is down 0.6% in Australia, suggestive of a lower start for local diversified mining counter. Tencent Holdings is down 2.57% suggestive of a similar start for major holding company Naspers. 

Earnings look ahead: Catapillar look to releases results today, follower by Standard Chartered, Coats Group, Ralph Lauren, Pfizer, Procter and Gamble and Apple tomorrow. Wednesday will see Capita, BAA Aviation, BAE Group, Molson Coors, Metlife and TripAdvisor releases results, with a trading statement coming from Next.Aviva, the LSE Group, Inmarsat, Duke Energy, MGM Resorts and Yum! Brands will be on Thursday, whilst Heinz, Essentra and Noble Energy see off the end of the week. 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

10am – eurozone business confidence (July): forecast to rise to 1.4 from 1.39. Market to watch: EUR crosses

1pm – German CPI (July, preliminary): expected to fall to 1.9% YoY from 2.1%. Market to watch: EUR crosses

3pm – US pending home sales (June): forecast to fall 1.5% YoY from -2.2%. Market to watch: USD crosses

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Hiscox saw a strong start to 2018, with the insurance firm seeing a 21% growth in gross premiums written for H1. They saw profit before tax rise 21%, to $154 million, with the firm on track to exceed over 1 million customers in 2018.
  • Senior posted a 31% rise in pre-tax profit compared with last year, with the firm trading slightly ahead of expectations. The Group delivered another strong cash performance, with good margin progression in both Aerospace and Flexonics. Interim dividend increased has been raised by 6.8%, to 2.19p per share.
  • Hulamin headline earnings per share for the interim period declined by 77% from the prior years comparative period.
  • Massmart An updated interim trading statement showed headline earnings expected to be between 16% and 26% lowr than the prior years comparative period. 

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