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Tweets boost Tesla - EMEA brief 8 August


JamesIG

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  • Earnings solid coming from the US continues to push futures up overnight.
  • Oil prices held steady, supported by a report of rising U.S. crude inventories as well as the introduction of sanctions against Iran.
  • Elon Musk tweeted last night regarding taking Tesla private. Stock up as he quoted a $420 price target.
  • Crypto markets slump following SEC bitcoin ETF delay.
  • Today there’s a 39.1 point FTSE div (updated from 39.0 on the dividend adjustment post) and a 25.8 Dow div.

Asian overnight: Another good session for US markets helped to drive Asia higher, while oil prices continued to rise thanks to Iran tensions. Tokyo, Hong Kong and Australia rose, but Shanghai fell 0.6% as trade war fears continued to hit equities there. The US has said that it would be implementing a further 25% in tariffs on $16bn of Chinese imports in two weeks time. Trade balance data from China showed a smaller than expected surplus although exports increased more than expected in July as did imports into the region. While the S&P 500 failed to hit a new record, the index is now within easy distance of a fresh record, proving that bullish sentiment remains strong despite trade war rhetoric.

UK, US and Europe: UK earnings from key firms such as Prudential, Glencore, and G4S help to offset a lighter macro calendar, although we do have a speech from FOMC member Barkin, plus weekly crude inventories and a New Zealand rate decision.

South Africa: The Jse Top 40 Index is expected to open flat this morning tempering overnight gains with this mornings losses in global equity markets. Tencent Holdings is trading 1.74% firmer in Asia suggestive of a positive start for major holding company Naspers. BHP Billiton is up 0.95% in Australia suggestive of a positive start for local diversified miners. 

Economic calendar - key events and forecast (times in BST)

2018-08-08 07_46_57-Forex Economic Calendar.png

Source: Daily FX Economic Calendar

Corporate News, Upgrades and Downgrades

  • Paddy Power Betfair said that pre-tax profit rose to £106 million for the first half, while revenue was up 7%. The dividend was raised 3% to 67p. However, it downgraded its annual earnings guidance, to £460-480 million, from a previous £470-495 million. 
  • Glencore reported a 13% rise in net income for the first half, to $2.8 billion, with a strong performance from metals and minerals and its energy products segments. 
  • PageGroup saw first-half profit rise 18% to £67.2 million, while revenue was up 12% to £751.6 million. The dividend was raised by 5.1% to 4.1p per share, while a special dividend of 12.73p was also declared. 

Countrywide upgraded to neutral at Credit Suisse
Rio Tinto upgraded to add at AlphaValue
Ibstock upgraded to buy at Goodbody
Pendragon upgraded to neutral at JPMorgan

Alstria Office cut to hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
Maersk downgraded to hold at SEB Equities
Rotork downgraded to hold at SocGen
Spire Healthcare downgraded to sell at Berenberg

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Please note: This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients. See full non-independent research disclaimer and quarterly summary.

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    • Natural Gas Commodity Elliottwave Technical Analysis
      Natural Gas



      Mode - Impulsive 



      Structure - Impulse Wave 



      Position - Wave (iii) of 5



      Direction - Wave (iii) of 5 still in play



       



      Details:  Price now in wave iii as it attempts to breach 1.65 wave i low. Wave (iii) is still expected to extend lower in an impulse.



       



      Natural Gas is currently breaching the previous April low, marking a decisive move as the impulse initiated on 5th March continues its downward trajectory, further extending the overarching impulse wave sequence that commenced back in August 2022. This decline is anticipated to persist as long as the price remains below the critical resistance level of 2.012.



       



      Zooming in on the daily chart, we observe the medium-term impulse wave originating from August 2022, which is persisting in its downward trend after completing its 4th wave - delineated as primary wave 4 in blue (circled) - at 3.666 in October 2023. Presently, the 5th wave, identified as primary blue wave 5, is underway, manifesting as an impulse at the intermediate degree in red. It is envisaged that the price will breach the February 2024 low of 1.533 as wave 5 of (3) seeks culmination before an anticipated rebound in wave (4). This confluence of price movements underscores the bearish sentiment prevailing over Natural Gas in the medium term.



       



      Analyzing the H4 chart, we initiated the impulse wave count for wave (3) from the level of 2.012, which marks the termination point of wave 4. Notably, price action formed a 1-2-1-2 structure, with confirmation established at 1.65 and invalidation set at 2.012. The confirmation of our anticipated direction materialized as price breached the 1.65 mark, signifying a resumption of bearish momentum. Presently, there appears to be minimal resistance hindering the bears, thereby reinstating their dominance in the market. It is projected that wave iii of (iii) of 5 will manifest around 1.43, indicative of the potential for the wave 5 low to extend to 1.3 or even lower. This comprehensive analysis underscores the prevailing bearish outlook for Natural Gas in the immediate future.



       







       







       




      Technical Analyst : Sanmi Adeagbo
       
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