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NFP jitters in stocks?


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I am short term bullish, long term bearish on stocks and in the run up to NFP tomorrow we have seen the usual whiplash jitters apparent on a market rally 100% reliant on central bank largess (some might say delusions of grandeur...) for sustainability.  Will a high number result in a rally because the economy is apparently strong or a drop because the Fed will have fewer excuses not to raise rates?  Will the reverse occur?  Who the **** knows?  FWIW (and that ain't much!) I think we will see a miss and a drop in USD on rate rises being once again put off).  This would finish off the retrace in GBP/EUR at least.

 

I have noticed some short term bearish signals and a possible market top (although I don't rate this as a high likelihood just yet, still it cannot be ignored).  Using the Dow, and you can see similar on other related markets, my Daily chart is showing a small possible head & shoulders formation with a neckline that has proved decent support so far.  The time period is not long enough for this to be a strong signal in my view but could represent a retrace signal (EWT 3-4 - see 4 Hourly chart).  For now I expect a retrace and/or rally up to the 19,000 area, which has been my target for the top for some time now with a confluence of 3 tramlines offering resistance.

 

On the 4 Hourly you can see a small scale H&S top (blue circles)around the Wave 3 (blue) top {note this is the possible wave 5 H&S top on the Daily, but I prefer this retrace set up} with a neckline that was broken yesterday and is now being retested at a down-sloping tramline point (pink line).  Should that retest fail I see a fall away to a possible retest of the Flag formation near the Fib 50% (drawn from the Wave 2 (Blue on the daily chart).  At this point the retrace would complete and a final rally to the Top would begin.  Within all this is NFP or course...

 



 

 

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