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Everything posted by Mercury

  1. Breakout! Hmm, USD driven or in advance of stocks I wonder...
  2. Breakout? Wonder if we will see turns across the board...
  3. middle of the channel is the place you do not trade. This could easily be a consolidation phase, probably is, and until it breakout out decisively both bullish and bearish scenarios are in play.
  4. Tell you what though, we could use a bit of Iron Lady action in the UK these days. The current lot have to be the most ineffectual collection of space wasters to ever warm the benches of Westminister. MT would have the UK out already with a deal that was lopsided to the UK. Like her or hate her you can't deny, she got **** done.
  5. So Germany avoids recession (well under the short hand 2 successive quarters of GDP decline measure, which is antiquated) but they put in a massive 0.1% positive GDP last quarter, not exactly the stuff of mega bull markets, unless they are fueled by widespread financial engineering (AKA a ponzi scheme). The UK put in some not so hot retail numbers, has anyone notices any of the bad news around retail... 🎅 Amazingly the analyst consensus on retail sales growth was 3.7% after 3.1 previously. I am surprised it even came in at 3.1% this time but where the hell did the 3.7% come from? They just aren't paying attention but then they don't have the inside track into retail organisations... Upshot is the FTSE is making another leg lower, it really isn't looking strong. So long as price stays below the lower channel lines this is a bearish set up for me.
  6. Potential channel breakout to the upside on EURUSD. If this holds then can GBPUSD be far behind? GBP has been stronger of late but I expect a reversal of that for a period, probably consistent with a strong EUR rally. Watch out for a short term 1-2 rally and retrace before any rally really gets going.
  7. Gold/Silver still rallying, still signaling a potential stocks drop. Dax is the most interesting this morning. Germany managed to stave off recession (We saved!) by putting in a 0.1% GDP growth figure (ah! maybe not!). Dax is falling after a potential wave 2 turn and followed up a short term 1-2 (light blue on my chart). A break of short term resistance could cement the obvious 4H channel breakout, which occurred on NMD around the Fib 88% off the ATH. Russell 2000 and Nikkei have broken short term support levels and are now hovering around these and US large caps are currently in potential ending channel formation with the Dow putting in a new ATH overnight to join the other two, was kinda expecting/needing that to happen to get more confidence we were done with this rally phase. It is early yet and I wonder whether the Dax and FTSE will lead everything down now or **** about waiting for the US open...
  8. Russell 2000 mid caps showing the way for US large caps today?
  9. Another glorious set of UK data, NOT! US data later on today will be interesting, given the slightly improved US data of late we might have thought the US stock market would be putting in a stronger performance but apparently the Bulls are a bit skittish... German GDP tomorrow will be very interesting I expect. The FTSE continues to respond negatively to bad news, which is a blessed relief to those of us fed up with a market tuned to central banks and political comments about nonsense. The chart shows a lower high again and a breakout of the current channel (adjusted since the fakeout from the other day). A lower low vs that fakeout will be bearish. Currently the set up from my previous posts on this thread remain in play. Only a reversal to a higher high would cause me to adjust, although a break back into the channel would give pause for thought...
  10. EURUSD (and therefore likely USD generally) looks lie it may have achieved a turning point. Possible small leg down to come to hit the Fib 62% but equally possible this pair trigger a channel breakout. Strong PMD on 1H and 4H charts and the turn is at the previous channel breakout zone.
  11. As usual, the Yen is strengthening as stocks (Nikkei) keel over. USDJPY has been in a consolidation pattern for some time but trending downwards so my view has been that this pair will eventually drop much further come what may. This could also be driven by USD weakness, a subject of much debate in recent times. A dual tailwind of stocks falling and USD falling would send this pair further than others, which is what my analysis was suggesting could happen. As for now, the pair have seemingly recently topped out and may now approach a key channel breakout point as stocks decline.
  12. So looks my concerns about Gold/Silver turning back up and indicating a potential stocks bearish phase may be coming true. The FTSE has stubbornly refused to put in a higher high so they set up (as outlined in my Recession thread) remains bearish. The Dax has turned at the Fib 88% in what may turn out to be a wave 2 completion that triggers a strong move down before a probably Santa rally in a smaller 1-2 retrace. US large caps may or may not have a final ATH in them or do the same as the Dax with a lower low Santa rally top. For now I am simply focused on maintaining my Shorts off the breakouts. With Gold/Silver rallying and USDJPY falling the stage seems to be set for a period of Stocks bearishness. Bitcoin might be set to breakout into a rally too...
  13. What makes you think they were dead? Interestingly every generation goes through an existential crisis. In the 60s/70s it was the so-called "duck and cover" (American phrase) fear of nuclear annihilation that gave birth to CND and protests like Greenham Common in the UK. Nuclear is still here but CND you don't hear so much about anymore. There was the Cold War and MAD for the 70s/80s, ended with the fall of the Berlin wall, although the Russian Bear never really went away and neither did China but the Cold War generation grew up and worried about other things, like career choices, getting on the first rung of the property ladder, getting married, bringing up kids etc etc. The 90s/00s brought us the power keg that is the Middle East, which still persists and the new Millennium ushered in the era of global climate catastrophy, which has people super gluing themselves to the very electric trains that would help the situation (madness). And it is a kind of madness that grips the zeitgeist such that if anyone dares challenge it they are immediately attacked by the mob that truly believes they are gonna die in they don't do something. Guess what? Life goes on and the World keeps turning. So cheer up, it may never happen. And if you can't do that then buy tinned goods and lots of water and dig a bunker under your house...
  14. Looks like a Gold reversal, maybe into a retrace rally. Coincident with a stocks fall and/or USD rally?
  15. Assume you mean't don't. What makes you think I'm being defensive? I have no emotional attachment to the way anyone else trades or sees the market, why would I?
  16. Do that then. We wouldn't have an operable market if there weren't people on both sides...
  17. Some more bad data from the UK, this time it is a slide in average earnings and an increase in claimants. Oh oh! Is Jobs data about to join the party? FTSE has broken a channel and this morning put in a potential failed retest of that channel. A drop from here is on the card and a lower low confirms a turn. Other indices remain decidedly less that buoyant, despite some better US data and new ATHs on all 3 large cap markets.
  18. Interesting issue @dmedin, and one I have struggled with myself. I have a few personal insights for you, if care for them, as follows: Firstly I use multiple time frames for both analysis and as trading triggers, although I usually use the 1H chart as my main trading window, within the context of the bigger picture. With respect to EWT I never use it exclusively, and it is never an actual trigger for trading, merely an analytical corroboration. In other words I need to have a credible EWT set up but don't use label positioning as a trading trigger; it is too rough a technique for that. With respect to Daily vs 1H, often I cannot see the internals on the daily chart (e.g. a wave 1 with an internal 1-5 pattern) but the wave labeling should sense in the context of the rest of the labeling on the daily. In such cases I will then look to see if I can see the 1-5 internals on a shorter term time frame (4H/1H); occasional also 15 mins but below 1H things get less reliable for me. I will happily trade a price action move that conforms to my trading triggers even if the specific EWT at that point is not conclusive as I often see it in hindsight, however the contextual bigger picture EWT has to be present and credible for me to trade. If we look at the Daily chart for Coffee (below). The May bottom at present looks like a trend ending turn (a large wave C - see my previous posts for why I think this is a C). The rally up to wave 1 (purple) could be seen as either a 1-5 or an A-B-C, indeed my first thought was an A-B-C, which is what I was posting initially. However the move down to wave 2 (purple) is a clearer A-B-C, which suggested the previous rally was a 1-5. With another rally and retrace to follow (1-2 blue) and a strong straight rally to a new higher high vs 1 (blue), I can surmise that the current rally is part of a motive wave that will eventually breakout into a confirmed trend change and long term bull market. I cannot see the internal 1-5 on the wave 1 (brown) rally until I look at the short term time frame charts. However the wave 1 label is consistent with the rest of the daily chart labeling and I had a number of indicators suggesting a turn back down and I was anticipating a bearish retrace to set up a strong move to test the key 11,500 level. So far this is playing out. It must be noted that until we get a breakout and a higher high than the wave 1 (purple) point I cannot rule out a consolidation phase. Indeed there are 2 unclosed gaps on the recent rally, one right at the beginning, which could mean the whole rally gets retraced to a new lower low. If that happens then the wave 1 (brown) is negated. Like a lot (all) of technical analysis the price action needs to confirm which scenarios are possible until there is only 1 left. While I believe my Fundamentals case is strong for a long term bull market the technicals help to sort out the timing via the various scenarios in play. Currently my lead scenario is for a retrace to wave 2 (brown) and then a rally to test the key resistance level. However a deep rally might begin to change my mind. The case for my lead scenario is strong, including the strength of the wave 1 (brown) rally. It will take an equally strong bearish price action move to negate this.
  19. And there it goes! Let's see what happens next but that break to the bearish side is suggestive of a further retrace move, as projected.
  20. Gap ought to be closed and then we will see if there is to be a breakout this time or another false dawn...
  21. But going back to the original point, it was you who talked up index correlation as it pertains to the Dow Theory. Now you seem to be suggesting that the US will continue to boom away but everyone else will fall back? Or just the UK? Note that the FTSE100 is predominately populated by international companies that derive most of their sales and profits from outside the UK, a lot of it in the US as it happens. Add to that a large proportion of mining and energy stocks (i.e. global industrial output) and it is hard to argue that the FTSE is a reflection of the UK economy, more realistically it is tied to the world economy, hence a divergence between these indices is relevant and non US large cap indices may very well be reflecting an early indicator of the end of the so-called Millennial boom
  22. Not sure what London has to do with anything..? And UBS is a Swiss bank and this article relates to deeds perpetrated in Hong Kong...
  23. Failing economy. Riots in the streets. Inability to form any kind of stable government. A total reliance of their big benefactor and yet a total antipathy to them despite the largess. A majority of the workforce working in government jobs with pensions that kick in at aged 50, being paid for my by the private sector so much as the EU. A truly dreadful balance of payments and national debt level. Yeah I'm sure you are right... Hmm,sounds a bit like Scotland actually...
  24. We can only hope, although good luck getting into the EU and doing any better than Greece...
  25. Love this bit from the article you posted @elle "Anybody who thinks they know what some hypothetical trade deal will produce is simply bloviating." It seems from the piece that stacked against all the negatively trending world economic data is the hope/belief that Trump will do a deal with China that will save the world... I'm not holding my breath nor risking my hard won capital on such a flimsy fundamentals case when the truth is blindingly obvious in the data.