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Mercury

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Mercury last won the day on April 21

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  1. FX seems to be all about USD strength, although I remain on the sidelines to see whether this materialises soon or requires a large retrace to "prime the pump". One thing that is certain is that EUR has been stronger than GBP, which is exactly according to my road map for this pair (see previous post). The retrace is in complex form, lots of whipsaw, but now has raced into the wave C and has shot straight up towards the 2 resistance zones I had previously identified. At present I am still tipping a retrace of the long term Triangle consolidation lower line but first we will see how a retest of the breakout zone. Long term I am tracking GBP strength vs the Euro with massive structural issues within the Eurozone (fiscal and political) as fundamentals backdrop.
  2. PS: forgot to add, net COT data hit triple digit positive (+128k) on Tuesday last, just as the market spiked and dropped, a contrarian dream... Silver continues to deteriorate into negative numbers. This supports my view that Gold will now hammer down faster than Silver in a catch up move as the non coms unwind their Longs pronto.
  3. Gold and Silver just got simpler for me with Friday's price action. Since my previous post both of these markets have dropped hard and Silver in particular has closed below my potential neckline, albeit marginally and at support. Gold still has some way to go to catch up on Silver. I see the likelihood of a rally from here as low given a dearth of appropriate signals. I still believe it is more likely we will see a rally in precious metals when stocks eventually capitulate, although it could begin first in safety assets as Bulls begin to shift Bearish, the first movers so to speak. I remain in favour of Gold turning around the Fib 50% and Silver retesting the long term supporting trend-line. I will continue to track all my indicators to see if I get an across the board buy signal around these points. Although not at all predictive it does seem like markets in general are trending to a resolution, one way or another, around about the end of May...
  4. Turning back to the Nasdaq for a minute I am seeing an interesting development on the 1 hour chart in support of my Daily chart road map (as posted last Tuesday). The end of week price action put in a lower low and dropped on the final hour of live trading, typically a Bearish signal, but in an end of rally stage there is often a lot of whipsaw action as Bulls and Bears slug it out. The potential for an A-B-C retrace within a Flag consolidation is high. If the market breaks down to the lower (speculative) line and turns around the Fib 50% and then rallies up through the short term resistance then the Flag will be confirmed. So what? Well the flag often marks the halfway point in a rally (+/- a bit) and is this is proven to be a Flag then the end of the rally would be, wait for it... 8000!
  5. Yet another leg back up in consolidation but this time a higher high, which has created a complex 1-2 retrace pattern (see 4 hour chart below). This afternoon this market hit the Fib 88%, quite normal with these types of retraces, which offered a very low exposure Short. The market duly turned and has run down fast, offering a few additional Short points and is currently continuing to trend down. A breakout of the daily trend-line would be a good bearish sign. Note, big picture, this is a retrace move so could have some whiplash in it yet.
  6. USD continues to thwart me, best laid plans and all that, but swing trading is all about dipping in and out until you catch the move for me. The secret is not to lose big on this stuff. EURUSD is at yet another critical point, the Fib 76/78% (short term move). This is coincidental with a previous price gap, a point where not all orders were filled so they may be this time... We have had a small bounce rally here this morning. A break about near term resistance (11190ish could be interesting especially if it happens fast and strong.
  7. @Foxy I agree with you that the big picture (daily charts) shows a significant support level for both stocks, although just now Oil is more around the recent lows and lower channel line (6865 area - Brent that is). For stocks, again it is a bit lower, maybe circa 25,000 for the Dow, so both could take a short term tumble but still be in overall up trend. On Brent right now price has been stopped at the previous breakout resistance zone and sent back down short term. Will need to see this zone broken to the upside to maintain the short term final wave scenario. A breakout of the channel line below that 6865 would suggest the previous high has ended the rally.
  8. Breakout failed on Gold, either a false breakout or a rebound back off resistance Triangle line (take your pick). Doesn't matter much, looks like Gold has resumed the road map path to lower support zones. Picture is even clearer on Silver, which is currently testing a potential H&S neckline. However if Gold does continue down to at lead the Fib 50% then Silver will probably retest it's long term supporting trendline. I await developments, on the sideline, with interest.
  9. After a small bounce off the potential parallel channel line (potential because it only have 2 touches including the recent one so not conclusive), the market has hit a retrace period. Short term support will be important to see if this brings out the perma bulls. A break of the overhead resistance signals a trend to fresh ATH for the DOW at least and likely all the US large Caps. Other markets seem to be in retrace mode (i.e. will not see fresh ATHs as these markets have already peaked). If this latter is true then the retrace price action is a better signal of an across the board rally end than the ATH points for obvious reasons. My lead scenario is for fresh ATHs on US large caps coincident with critical resistance point retrace turns for other indices. Secondary scenario is that end of Bull market has been seen and Dow put in a H&S top. This will be indicated by a break below current short term support on the Dow.
  10. Not a triangle but possible a parallel channel with a turn today off the Fib 62%. A run up now in concert with stocks will leave me tracking to see if major turns occur when Copper reaches it's next Resistance point at circa 30,000.
  11. USDCAD has been quite whiplashy of late, you would have to say it is in consolidation but if you are selling high and holding close stops then no problem. Another break lower today, will this one stick and break lower support?
  12. After a lower high and lower low it looks like a lower high at resistance level today followed by a possible small 1-2 retrace, not yet confirmed. Looking for another drop tomorrow and swiftly to show a wave 3. And if it does then most USD crosses will follow suit.
  13. A drop to the next level, the Fib 62% and strong rally off this level. My GBP Longs were stopped out so I begin again there but my EUR Longs were not and I have added on the bounce today. A fresh higher high tomorrow and this one is set to run and run.
  14. Ah so much promise and then boom! falls back to earth. Enough to make you throw in the towel but wait, a bounce right off the supporting trend line, a small 1-2 an then rally again. Maybe this time? Stocks are rallying too. One last leg up before oblivious beckons...
  15. Textbook Bounce and small 1-2 retrace to Fib 62% and then rally away, next stop 8000 and then we will see. Traded this on the Dow as there looks to be more upside if the Dow is to make a fresh ATH. 27,500 anyone?
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