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Mercury last won the day on November 1

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  1. Mercury

    US Stock market S&P 500

    Last chance saloon for the A-B-C scenario I have pegged out. The US large caps must rally now or something else is happening, possibly a variation of the same theme but with the Nasdaq making fresh lows vs the Dow and SP500 there appears to be some divergence there. Still a Long here with a tight stop below the recent low is a low loss risk bet while the set up still conforms to my road map. I'll be looking for an exit around about the Fib 62% as per my road map but if the move turns out to be very strong then an alternative retrace target of 26,600 is possible. If we do see the market racing up in a Santa Claus I will be wondering about the fresh all time high of course but that is a problem for another day. Right now I am long with a tight stop, let's see what happens next...
  2. Mercury

    Bitcoin - Price Behaviour

    Don't see anyone catching the falling knife on this one. It only looks cheap compared to the bubble. Will it still look cheap when it hits $1000? Sensible approach is to sit back and wait for the carnage to end then reassess. I suspect institutional investors will be preoccupied with their falling portfolios in the "real world" to worry about currency avatars.
  3. Mercury


    Maybe @Caseynotes, I don't feel I really know enough about the specifics but one thing your example does highlight is the global problem with corporate taxation, a topic I think we have covered on the forum in the past vis a vis Tech stocks paying little tax in countries other than their home base. This is as much an ethical issue for the corporate world in the sense that if they focus all their efforts on enriching their management and shareholders to the exclusion of where they sit in society and in the context of the planets eco-system (and I am far from being a tree hugger on this) the issues raised by both Druckenmiller and PTJ will be exacerbated and, I believe, be catastrophic in the end. Therefore, in that context and not being a socialist at all, I think Trump's ideas are bad for both America and the World because they are too simplistic and are playing to the nationalistic groundswell without any constructive notion of how to actually improve the lives of ordinary Americans. That said, something has to break the camel's back to initiative the reset crash so things can change. Might as well be Trump...
  4. Mercury


    Yeah but Druckenmiller is old school @Caseynotes. His opinion that Trump was fighting too many trade wars, especially with natural allies of America because he is locked into this America first and fair deal for America is the key problem. I think his analysis is sound (or course I would do because it fits my own...). If Trump wanted to have a pop at China ok but also Canada, Mexico, the EU etc etc, America is not so strong that it can stand isolated. Also Trump is seemingly an egomaniac so he may very well think America and the American President is all powerful but it isn't so. Presidents often get blamed for things like a bad economy but wrongly unless their policies are bad. They also take credit for good thing they had nothing to do with. The job of government is to create an environment where private enterprise can flourish, especially in American, but they cannot take credit for Black Americans actually starting businesses surely or business hiring people surely...
  5. Mercury

    bitcoin long period of consolidation

    Looks like the breakout of the extended consolidation Triangle is down then. Is this the end for Cryptos, at least in the current guise? Is it a precursor of a cascade across most assets classes with Stocks also under pressure?
  6. I agree @TrendFollower about what you say about professional gamblers. I know a few in the horse racing game but a lot of what they do is not so much picking winners and getting inside tips, although that happens, but playing the odds and laying off on the online exchanges. Very systematic and not at all taking a bet because they have a feeling. Don't know that much about casino games but I have heard some of the big names in trading referencing it in terms of odds and the recent Drucker interview video posted by caseynotes is an example of the use of casino gambling to illustrate the psychology of loosing traders very well. What I really meant when I said Gambler was not a professional gambler in the way you describe it but a stock market gambler and likening that to picking a grand national winner because you like the name...
  7. Mercury


    Great video interview @Caseynotes, hearing directly from these famous and highly successful guys is always illuminating. As always their war stories about mistakes and how they handle losing streaks etc is great but I was particularly drawn to the overall assessments of the economic mismanagement of the Central Bankers (and governments) and the fact that he has already gone Bearish. Drucker seems to be less disposed than PTJ to more life in the old Bull, although he does seem to be holding on to his big tech stocks... He references a big blow out on Tech stocks, maybe into Christmas and then maybe the Bear. However today's price action suggests to me that the Nasdaq is now weaker than the Large Caps, which would be another divergence and probably tally with the high already in. The plot thickens...
  8. "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result" (although it is often attributed to Einstein there is no clear evidence he actually ever said it...) I think this is a massive trap failed traders fall into and it is what washes them out. After a while you hear the same things over and over again in terms of failure but we often prefer to talk about success, or tips or argue about methods and so on. For a new trader or a struggling trader the short video below is food for thought. It won't turn around your trading if your method is flawed or doesn't suit your personality or you have other psychological blockers in play or you haven't done sufficient research and learning and tested the method you have selected but it should give you pause if any of it resonates such that you look again at what you are doing that is not working and break the cycle of insanity...
  9. Everyone has their opinions on trading mythologies @Clem and often like to tell people why what they are doing is ill conceived but the reality is no one has it locked up, or else they would on CNBC or on an exotic beach somewhere... The people who seem to be very successful all say that you have to find a method that works but also suits your personality and preferred trading style. Also this changes over time. A lot of highly successfully traders trade 24/7, following the Sun as it were (obviously they have staff, an organisation, to do it). So clearly they find it important to see what major world markets are doing but I think (based on TV interviews with these people) this is more to do with gauging if there is anything at odds with their expectations occurring rather than seeking short term trading opportunities from pattern correlations. What I can say from my own experience (I trade the Nikkei from time to time but it is not a main focus) is that trading is a probabilities game and not a predictions game. Literally no one can say what the markets will or will not do or how they will react on any given day to anything, not news, nor other markets, nothing. Many try to explain market moves for this or that reason but so what? That is why the market already moved not what it will do next. You very often get reactions that are "odd": good economic data produces a bearish run ("it was already priced in" or something...); bad data produces a rally ("the Fed has to act" or something...). The Dax is following the Dow, the Nikkei is following China, everything is following the SP500 and what about Bond yields? Personally I don't have the brain power or the computing power to analyse all of this and come up with a credible tradeable system solution and do not have sufficient insider knowledge to "know" why markets move the way they do. That said I do believe that in big picture terms there are correlations between markets (rising bond yields is bad for stocks) but they are never permanent and you can't trade this, you can only use it to set up your overall fundamentals assessments to try to discover a turning point and/or identify a trend emerging. I firmly do not think you can draw any conclusions that are trade worthy on the Nikkei from what happened the night before on the US markets. You have to assess the Nikkei (and any other market) on its own merits: Fundamentals big picture and current emerging price action). But if you are still intent on looking at this then I would urge you spend some time taking a large sample of such situations from historic data, looking at various time frames and understanding the overall market condition (Bull, Bear, consolidation) at the time of you sample and testing your hypothesis that there is a trade worthy correlation. In the final analysis the difference between a trader and a gambler is the former uses a tried and tested system or methodology (doesn't need to be a computer system) to attempt to gain an edge whereas the latter uses gut feelings and received "wisdom". Good luck with it.
  10. Mercury

    EURUSD Trade

    EURUSD eventually did turn at the support point and is now at another important juncture. Will the market follow AUDUSD and breakout through the Daily chart channel line. If it does then a fast move to the 11,800 resistance zone is indicated and then we should either get a retrace or some consolidation before a final push on towards the 12,300 area I have been targeting for the full retrace rally completion. With EURGBP having made the projected rally back off the LT support area it could now also be time for GBPUSD to play catch up and this one is likely to be stronger than EURUSD. I am already long EURUSD but if I wasn't or was minded to take a ST trade to collect the 400 or so points on offer I would look to go long off the breakout. However GBPUSD offers greater reward, albeit with potentially greater volatility risk.
  11. Mercury


    So Paul Tudor-Jones thinks there will (could) be another leg up before "the big one", well no one in his position will call the top but in essence he did in 1987, he just didn't publicise it until after the fact. I was interested to hear him draw parallels with past tops and drops, he said that when central banks withdrew support last time there was a push up and then a top off. But have we already had that, he said this in the Summer, but also just as the last drop bottomed out... His comments spurred me to look again at past drops. I picked 2007, partly because he mentioned it but also because, unlike 1987, I believe 2007 was about to become the great reset until the central banks stepped in. Now there is nothing else they can do so I believe that the next drop will give up all the post 2009 gains fueled by central bank profligacy and then pick up where the 2007 Bear left off to finish the job. The idea is that such a massive reset is needed to change the Financial markets for good, not dissimilar to what PTJ is on about with his JUST ETF. So how does 2007 look vs today. Well just have a look at the 2 charts below... But before anyone gets too excited, the Jan/Feb2018 correction traced out a very similar pattern so nothing here is conclusive. However if this current phase acts also similarly then we could expect a turn at the Fib62% or 76/78% and then it comes down to whether price then breaks down through support to make a lower low or bounces off to begin a rally phase. As always, it is all about watching price action to see where it is most likely to head next.
  12. Mercury

    Brexit Countdown

    That would indeed be a nightmare for clarity and getting the **** thing done...
  13. Mercury

    Gold & Silver in a LT rally

    Mentioned Silver just now in the context of USD. Precious metals seem to be following USD at present and regardless of that the technicals are suggesting a retrace prior to a more significant rally. Same but smaller on Gold I think. If we do get this retrace and a bounce at a good support zone and then a fresh higher high this could be a nice Long trade. A retest of the breakout zone would offer a close stop (low loss potential) Long IF the nature of the price action is consistent with a retrace and not a plunge lower. Ideally you want to see the bounce first but it could run fast. May take a while for this to mature, patience is required.