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Mercury last won the day on March 5

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  1. Another corroborating indicator to watch for me is the Yen (stronger in flight to safety, generally). Of late USDJPY has been showing signs of weakening and continues to do so today.
  2. The aforementioned Russell 2000. Not 100% conclusive but highly indicative for me.
  3. Looks like a small final leg up to critical resistance and now a sharp (1 hour chart) bounce back off that resistance. Not yet confirmed with support breakouts but shaping up for a classic ending diagonal/triangle set up. I often take a speculative Short (or Long in reverse set ups) off the touch and go at the potential Triangle top, which I have done here, then fast stop protection move to minimal loss positions and await developments. Another opportunity for a short is the breakout of the lower narrowing channel line. One of my key leading indicators for US large Caps, the Russell 2000, is flashing Red as well. All in all this is performing exactly as my Bearish scenario lays out.
  4. FX is too tricky to trade just now for me, I am waiting for more clarity with some key breakouts or clear pattern retraces. While USD (EURUSD) looks to have started to firm up on a direction I remain in doubt about this and wonder if we will see yet another twist in FX before the large scale retrace I have been patiently tracing for may months g. Meanwhile there is a possible clearing of the mists on GBPUSD for me, still to be confirmed by price action, which is suggesting a Wave A-B is in play. I do not know yet whether or not the wave Bearish move has started, we may yet see another leg up to the Fib 50% first. In any case I am not seeking to trade this B but rather to spot the rally into the final wave C of the larger scale retrace. I am liking another retest of the breakout zone for a wave B conclusion. If this materialises it could herald a similar move on EURUSD and hence some short term strength in USD. I am expecting GBP to go through a period of relative weakness vs EUR as well.
  5. So another leg up then, and now another 50/50, will Brent carry to the Fib 50% or turn back down with a lower low? There is a strong case for the Wave A completion having already occurred with good levels of Neg Mom Div on both Daily and 4 Hourly charts and other oscillators having turned back from over bought levels. A break of the rising narrowing channel is something to look out for but I currently still believe we will see another rally after any bearishness before the long drop continues.
  6. Gold and Silver are broadly still following my road map. I have added what I believe is a strong channel (both upper and lower lines have a lot of price turn touches). The breakout zone of this channel offers the favourite options for a wave B conclusion (Also Fib 62%), with Fib 76/78% not that much further up this represents a strong resistance zone for me. Silver and Gold are showing some strong congruence in pattern with similarity of Channel and breakout. Wave A looks to be concluded now it remains to be seen how the potential wave B plays out. I am not really key to trade this retrace as I am waiting for a long term rally signal to go Long and there are better short term trading opportunities elsewhere in my view. So long as my road map set ups remain intact I am content to track and wait.
  7. Not sure I could be quite that definitive at this stage. Nasdaq and SP500 have made new highs on the current rally while the Dow has not. The Dow was much stronger in the previous phase so we are seeing a lack of convergence between the US majors. In addition the Russell 2000, a bell weather for momentum stocks is tracking similarly to the Dow, having not made a higher high in this rally yet. I couldn't call which way this is going to play out next week but the stock indices do seem to be at a pivotal point just now. A turn down on Sunday/Monday would trigger a Bearish phase. A turn up would not necessarily trigger a resumption of the Bulls until key resistances are broken.
  8. See a recent article posted by the same Cramer @elle was referencing I believe, posted below. I won't comment on it except to say 2 things: one, without a lot of talking heads talking up the market at turning points I would be nervous - contrarian turning points can't be mainstream; two, the idea that anyone, any institution, can control (or cause) a recession or a boom is total nonsense (Gordon Brown discovered that the hard way). Humans love to explain stuff (to rationalise); feel they can control their environment and, chiefly, seek to blame people for bad things (It must be someones fault or else things are too chaotic to comprehend - well they are, that is what chaos theory is all about). In reality, I believe, it is group think and herd mentality that causes booms and busts. And this is driven by the above mentioned human desire (need even) to rationalise. What institutions like central banks CAN do is amplify the cycle by intervention. Americans are the ultimate purveyors of the so-called free economy but the level of intervention since Greenspan (not just Bernanke) is hardly a free economy. This intervention, which is now a global phenomenon, has staved off the crash and reset that some believe ought to have occurred as a result of the credit crunch and amplified the resulting boom to bubble proportions. The inevitable bust will be, as a result, much more painful that it would have been in 2007. In fact we might now be touching bottom and beginning to come out of it but instead we may have 10 years or more of depression to content with. The reason people like Cramer et al have a ready readership as no one wants to believe what I have just written above, it is too awful to contemplate. OK believe what you want to believe if it make you feel less emotionally fragile but surely the logic of it as a credible scenario would lead you you plan for the worst..? As for me I plan to take full advantage of the Bear when it comes in my trading account to offset other impacts elsewhere, why wouldn't I? https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/jim-cramer-it-is-time-to-burst-the-fed-bubble-thesis-14862451
  9. This is one of the reasons I dislike trading Oil and do it rarely. What looked like a great set up with a strong move in the indicated direction was quickly reversed. The Bearish set up is not extinguished by this move but it does call into question whether a fresh high to the overhead Fib 50% is on the cards prior to the retrace I am seeking. For no I remain cautiously Bearish as all the indicators still support this and despite the Daily bullish in bar (which notably still produced a red bar) the Weekly chart overall remains Bearish to me.
  10. Gold is getting a small bounce but is that on the back of stocks Bearishness, USD apparent strength or something else. I can't really tell right now and unless Stocks are following my #2 scenario (see USD indices, are we there yet thread) I can't really see this as the end of the larger retrace. So I remain with my previously posted road map. This rally will, under that scenario, either trace a wave B from here or give us another small leg down before it does. After that comes a longer wave C to complete the retrace, possible as low as a retest of the prevailing long term supporting trend-line, which would suck in a lot of precious metal Bears, prior to a long, long rally. For precious metals I feel it is important to watch USD moves in the short to medium but overall economic and stocks moves for the long term. The Negative Momentum Divergence is still dominant in the technical set up for me but Stochastic is over sold so a period of bullishness is likely, remains to be seen whether this will turn back down before a higher high or run up to hit the the overhanging resistance first before any medium term retrace. This uncertainty means precious metals are not a good bet right now for me. I am content to hold Longs from way down for the long term, having cashed some on a dual bet strategy. I am waiting for this current pattern to trace out before looking for additional Longs but I will not be taking precious metals Short nor swing trading in what I expect to be a volatile (whip plash type - not the good type) period and view the set up as too uncertain. I would rather look to swing trade stocks and main USD FX pairs that Gold/Silver at present.
  11. Are we there yet? I think so but it is not yet conclusive. The turn on the Dow occurred just below the Fib 88%, which was a very strong retrace rally indeed. However all the signs of the turn were there with a pin bar off the upper narrowing channel line and then a lower high retrace (where I went short). The Market then broke out of the channel to the downside (another bearish signal) and went on a strong drop that stopped after bad economic news (US NFP), hmm... There have been some minor divergences on shorter time-frame charts, a signal that the trend is weakening. However that strong late reaction rally suggest a further retracement is likely before the next phase of the bearish move. I suspect this retrace may carry as far as a retest of the channel breakout. Of course no one can 100% discount the marketing over exuberance continuing to a new all time high but I don't see that as the highest probability scenario at this stage, there are too many economic headwinds for me. This is my scenario 3. The other 2 scenarios I have in play are: this will be a drawn out struggle between Bulls and Bears that will drive a so-called complex retrace with a lot of whip lash (we have certainly had that so far) before the Bulls will eventually realise the game is up and then we turn into a massive wave 3 down The game is already up and the turn down into the big one has just happened Time will tell, for now I remain Bearish, I will hold my Shorts and await events.
  12. The USD is still in consolidation, as is EURUSD unsurprisingly. These things take longer than one expect usually. So the question remains, will it break up into a long term rally or down into a significant retrace before hitting out on that long term rally. Note I do not entertain the scenario where the USD goes into free-fall from here. Main reason is that I am pessimistic about the long term outlook for the global economy. We have had it too good for too long and all the signs of a major recession (or worse) are there for me (including paid for economists saying it wont happen... yet!). Stock markets and economies (at least on paper!) have been fueled by central bank policy, which I believe will be studied intensively in the future and declared a disaster. Recently central banks have made a halfhearted attempt to pull back from their policy excesses, because they likely know in their respective guts that the economy has not responded and to continue is futile, they cannot get the inflation they are seeking to erode the debt excesses. The Eurozone economies as a whole are a basket case. China is flagging, unsurprisingly as they have been overheated for too long and (in all likelihood) being incorrectly represented in official data (although of course no one could prove that so let's say I take the prudent approach of discounting the official data). Emerging economies are struggling with USD denominated debt burden. Even the US economy is not as rosy as it seems, but likely still more stable than most. Trump policy seems to be to pull in to a US defensive posture to further stabalise it. Brexit is not helping the EU cause but is not the driver of their parlous state, the Eurocrats are terrified that the UK might be more successful outside that in, which they may well be, if for no other reason that they will not get plled down in the Eurozone meltdown that is, I believe, inevitable. The Eurozone economic model is not stable and therefore not sustainable and neither is the currency. In terms of policy, the central bankers must know that the end is nigh but who wants to be seen as the one who triggered the fall..? The alternative to carrying on is to admit error and reverse, which would trigger the very thing they have been trying to fend off, a depressionary recession. But to carry on with the same strategy that has not worked bears all the hallmarks of the theory of insanity often attributed (erroneously perhaps) to Einstein - "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result". And they are not alone in this. How many times have we read the great and the good say "that this time it is different" or talk about the "new normal". LOL! Now the ECB seemingly wants to open the pumps again... Oh Oh! So much for the fundamentals, which can only supply the backdrop for me. I need triggers to trader so I use a technical analytical method to frame the fundamentals into real-time price action. The DX move up since early 2018 has described a Triangle formation with significant resistance overhead now including the Fib 62% and a cross resistance point (2 or more trend lines intersecting). That this occurs at the Fib 62% level may be indicative of a major inflection point. There is significant negative momentum divergence (NMD) in play just waiting for a final trigger to push price into a Bearish move. The EWT count has yet to see a significant 1-2 retrace. Previously I had thought the Nov 18 top might be the wave 1 top but another leg up is now on and that critical inflection point now comes into sharp relief. Looking at the Daily we also see a more recent Daily NMD plus other oscillators firmly over bought. On the current rally the desired 1-5 form has not yet completed, so a bit further to go perhaps to test that resistance zone. On the EURUSD chart you can see the same Triangle in reverse and in this case of course PMD. Net I expect another leg up on DX (down on EURUSD) before that significant EWT1-2 retrace, the termination of which will signal the final turn to complete the overall bearish move on play since the Credit Crunch. When this triggers (i.e. a massive USD rally) it will likely coincide with that stocks crash I have been banging on about for a few years now plus the precious metals rally I am seeing signals of all over the place. So that's what I think, does anyone have a materially different view? I would love to hear it.
  13. First support broken. Next up is he 6350 support zone. Note, if this is a wave B then it will either hammer down in a straight and fast 1-5 wave run or whiplash all over the place so caution is indicated.
  14. US indices are at or have broken near term support zones. Given the nature of the bearish moves I am viewing this as a trend change. I am not saying pile in, markets move in zig zags as we all know. I am Short from key breakout points and stop protected at Breakeven. I will be looking to sell into rallies at key resistance zone turning points with close stops above those turning zones. My medium term targets for this move are around the Fib 62% or 76/78% support zones. Depending on the nature of the move and the sum total of signals at these turning points I will assess whether a swing or hold approach (or indeed a split approach) is indicated.
  15. Not a coiling triangle on the hourly chart but a channel consolidation peaking at near the short term Fib 88% off the wave B or 2 top (don't know which yet), plus the Fib 76% off the Wave A top (see Daily chart for that one). Confluence of 2 different sets of Fibs is often a strong support/resistance zone in my experience. Solid breakout of the lower consolidation trend-line confirms the set up for me. Now looking for a break of the 6450 support zone and then an onward break of the next key support zone to cement the trend change. Looking at the Daily chart, the recent rally looks very much like an initial wave A (blue), unless the long term set up is on a very Bullish footing suggesting this is all a large scale A-B-C retrace), which doesn't seem likely at this point. If this proves to be a Wave A then I anticipate a Wave B-C down and then up towards the previous long term rally channel breakout zone, prior to a sustained Bearish market to the bottom (currently targeting the 1998 lows - see previous post Weekly Chart). This is coinciding with my set ups on FX, precious metals and Stocks and with Bonds seemingly Bullish the overall correlated scenario seems strong. All subject to how the price action plays out through Spring into early Summer but we should see resolution to all this soon enough I think. Note also the existence of a Death Cross on the Daily chart. I have observed over time that you often see an initial Death Cross that is reversed and then triggers again after the EWT1-2 retrace is completed. I think this could be happening on Oil and FX, and has already happened on the Dow, which would be consistent with the death of a very strong Bull market for me. Trading strategy: I am holding tactical Shorts, short term and stop protected at break even (I do this to keep my account ticking over to pay for holding long term positions) I may seek to reverse and go Long at the Wave B zone on price action and other signals if I am not fully engaged elsewhere (Stock indices shorts are better value and lower risk just now in my book and I am heavily Short Stocks) I am chiefly focused on getting Short at the full retrace completion for the longer drop but subordinate to stock indices Shorts ("The Big One"). If these markets do all turn around the same time then stock indices are the more lucrative bet for me. That said some diversification can be helpful.