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Mercury

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Mercury last won the day on October 8

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  1. Whatever about Brexit, deal or no deal (looks like a deal is on the table but the self serving interests of the MPs still have to be overcome on Saturday!) the overwhelming driver of FX at present is, to me, the USD. Currently this looks to have turned into a bearish phase, as suggested above and followed up with price action since. The turn down from the weekly channel line on NMD still holds sway and now the market is at the lower channel line breakout point. At the risk of attracting another ~ankey comment about breakouts, this is the critical point. A breakout through this support zone with a close below is critical to the continuation of the bearish move. GBP pairs will be susceptible to wild moves (probably more risk to the downside if the MPs decide to continue to play silly buggers) so either guaranteed stops or cash in before Friday close would be my approach but other pairs (possible EURUSD might hold some risk too) should not be unduly troubled by a local issue. AUDUSD and CADUSD are also going great guns (nothing to do with Brexit!).
  2. Oh oh! US retail sales growth negative for the month of Sept, vs consensus of +0.3% and last month print of +0.6%. According to economist consensus the manufacturing recession (admitted) will be just like the 2015/16 case where Services and the Consumer saved the day. But Services ISM data is trending down since Oct 2018 (hmm, what happens in Oct 2018 again?), and so has US NFP as it happens, but that's ok, apparently the US economy is still strong...
  3. Stop placement is a critical part of a trading strategy no doubt @DSchenk but I cannot help you with 5mins charts on that except to say if you have indicators telling you to enter a trade and then price action does not follow your plan then you have to get out and seek a reentry at a later stage (or reverse your bias if appropriate). I would always prefer to get stopped out a few times for a small loss and catch the big one I was seeking than hold too far into the red. Of course it all depends on order size and the size of the move you are seeking vs the stop out size and number of attempts. Losses are part of trading, as many of the top traders over the years will attest to, you have to learn how to lose before you can learn how to win, seems counter intuitive but that is also synonymous with trading, in my opinion. Due to the nature of my method and the timeframe I trade in I can't really advise you on 5min chart day trading. I can only discuss the longer term trend situation and suggest that you want to be careful trading against that trend. With respect to the FTSE, and most stock indices, my assessment is bullish in general but with a lot of whipsaw potential while the markets remain in trading ranges. Only the US large caps seem intent on making fresh ATHs, which is not a situation that is sustainable long term of course.
  4. FWIW @DSchenk, and it may not be worth much as I don't look beyond the 1H charts typically, I see the FTSE100 rallying to break 7250 to join other indices. The issue you have right now is the FTSE100, bizarrely, seems to have been held up by the very strong GBP but ultimately the FTSE and the Dax and doubtless others, all wait to see what will happen when the US large caps open. So if you are intent on trading in the morning (European time), as I think you seem to be doing from your past posts, you are likely to hit whipsaw price action as the main moves seem to come from 14.30 (uk time) onwards.
  5. Whatever man, there is an old saying, "he who laughs last laughs best". What I was offering DSchenk was my opinion, no need to laugh at it, you can just disagree, respectfully, or maybe you can't... FWIW, @DSchenk, back in 2016 I though that might be it, many people did, but it turned out to be a consolidation, which the charts revealed, that's life, still there was a good bear market phase to profit from, which I did. I have been long biased stocks since the consolidation became apparent but watching for the potential end. Now, since 2018, we are again in a period of either consolidation or termination. Time will tell which it is. If one is not open to both then one is locked into ones bias. What was it CaseyNotes said recently? "Once founded they hold their 'opinions' like it was a bar of gold". Buy the dips strategy in the face of such global economic deterioration seems like such a thing to me. So actually this all goes to prove my point, in consolidation phases, better be careful.
  6. PS: @DSchenk, forgot to say, Gold/Silver - Short; USD - Short; Coffee - Short; Stocks - Flat; Oil - maybe Long but yet to trigger.
  7. Brexit Schmexit! After the referendum result was announced the FTSE went on a tear, along with all the other stock indices. GBP was hit, although that was due and GBPUSD already well in a long term Bear market as a result of poor balance of payments, notably especially with the EU. Short term fluttering aside the biggest driver for the FTSE100 is the US stock indices as a reflection of the sentiment towards the global economic conditions, which are deteriorating, fact! My view is that we are at the end of a major bull cycle so trading stocks is especially risky now until the direction is clear (that could yet be another final bull surge to a blow off top BTW). Just look at a long term chart for any of the major indices and you will see that they have been in consolidation, albeit with new ATHs on US large caps but only on these, which is a notable divergence. Since Jan 2018 the Dow is up 290 points (yes just a measly 290 points), buy and hold? I don't think so. There have been some fantastic medium term tradable swings since then and the best and fasted have been bearish but you need clear triggers to spot the swings. One thing you could consider @DSchenk is either standing aside until things become clearer or trading another asset type until things become clearer on stocks. USD has been the asset to be in since Jan 2018, Gold since Aug 2018, Bitcoin since Dec 2018, if you have the stomach for it. That said, I am clearly coming at this from a longer term perspective, very definitely NOT from a day trading perspective but when I did try day trading stocks I could only make it work when I traded with the main trend (i.e. knew which way that was headed) and avoided consolidation ranges as there is too much whipsaw price action.
  8. Hedgeye, among others, are expecting/projecting a bad earnings quarter based on the trajectory of earnings and macro data. What would happen I wonder if poor earnings was followed up with a further deterioration in both manufacturing and non manufacturing ISM data at the end of October/beginning of November? What would happen on the non manufacturing ISM slipped below 50 ("Hey man, services is fine! Don't worry, buy the dips..."). The killer blow will come when jobs data finally crumbles, not because that drives the economies into recession, there will already be there, but from a psychological perspective lack of job opportunities and security is what most people see as a recession, including financial markets. And if you are feeling bad about you trading system not working out too well just look at Neil Woodford! If this kind of event, plus the US online brokers dropping commission to zero isn't enough to suggest that the wheels may be coming off then check out the ASOS results. Wait a minute? I thought the consumer was still strong and retail was merely suffering from a switch to online? Hmm... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50066615
  9. Oil looks like it is about to breakout into a bullish phase as per my previous outlined road map. Chance of reversal is still there but when it does breakout I think it will be fast and strong. I guess weakening USD can provide additional stimulus as well. Long term I thin Oil drops below current levels but I am now more sold on this happening via a strong rally phase, possible as high as $80 before a wider financial collapse pulls it back down, along with a decimation of stocks. As with the USD we are probably looking at the end of the year/Jan 2020 before this plays out, based on current projections. Bear in mind we could see a stocks "correction" in the meantime but the road maps on stocks are difficult to read at present, as one might expect in an ending phase.
  10. I am not trading this pair at the moment as the bigger rewards are elsewhere but it is instructive to corroborate my assessments of the related USD pairs. I think we have seen the completion and breakout of a Flag formation that, if correct, would signal a wave ending in and around he 8500 support zone. Subject to the price action to get there this is currently looking like a wave 1 down that should trigger a counter trend wave 2. The turn of the wave 2 would be an excellent place to get Short this market as then a long and strong wave 3 should ensue, that could be worth over 3000 points. All in the future though.
  11. Like several USD pairs (especially GBP) USDCAD executed a sharp turn and reversal at the end of last week with a lower low vs the wave B (brown) and a small 1-2 (grey) to kick things off. This has occurred after an extended period of whipsaw price action,which appears to have resolved in favour of CAD. Might we also get some bullishness in Oil as well as USD weakness? If so this one will run and run. I believe we are seeing a fast wave C here, which will run faster and longer than other pairs, which are still in an initial wave A. This one could be the pick of the bunch and could carry much further than the 12700-800 area I have as an initial target, especially if oil get bullish in a big way...
  12. EURUSD looks to have turned but we have seen this before only to suffer a reversal and fresh lower lows within the weekly chart Triangle channel. Therefore, while I am Long and will hold and add on any credible pullback and rally price action, I need to see a break of that upper channel line to get confirmation that the trend has switched to a counter trend rally. The price action on other pairs and DX is encouraging that this time is the one. While I think GBP will rally stronger there will be a reversal phase (check EURGBP) at which point we may see EUR rally harder while GBP goes bearish for a time (not like there isn't plenty of political risk about that could drive that!)
  13. The parallel channel breakout was confirmed in fine style yesterday with a close far above the breakout zone. I had already gone Long much lower so didn't need to sweat that but the confirmation suggest to me that the Fib 62% is a likely target for a wave A of a large retrace that could test the long term resistance trend line up around 14000, which would also be the Fib 76/78%. As I have mentioned on my EURGBP thread I have been anticipating a contrarian GBP rally against the Euro, while the MSM zeitgeist called for parity, and we are getting this rally big time now (I think 85p is a reasonable medium term target before any serious counter trend rally. This means that GBPUSD will rally further and faster than EURUSD, which is certainly the case at present.
  14. Breakout from the short term support (crica 9820) precipitated a strong move on most relevant USD pairs against the dollar, with the notable exception of USDJPY, which remains correlated with stocks (particularly the Nikkei) for now. I am expecting this move to continue to break the lower channel line and make at least the Fib 38% for a wave A of a retrace that will probably take until the end of the year to complete, but let's let the market decide timing, which we will read as price action. We could b entering quite a period of FX volatility as this slow grind up for the USD has given way and doubtless there will be some panic reversing as the dollar bears take over.
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