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Mercury

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Mercury last won the day on July 12

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  1. Mercury

    Silver Bullet

    Well Gold rallied hard recently while Silver lagged. These markets are related but not identical. Besides it may be more correct to say Silver rallied while Gold lagged in consolidation pending a rally..? The day is not yet over and the week only just begun.
  2. Mercury

    Silver Bullet

    Looks like the Silver bullet is back on. I have reversed my positions on a strong breakout to the upside. "As goes Silver, so goes Gold"?
  3. Adding to my Silver post, Gold has been more subdued that Silver, which gave me additional encouragement for considering Silver's resistance Trend line might hold. On Gold itself the EWT set up remains bearish plus a small consolidation triangle has just been broken to the downside. This offered an opportunity to go Short with a close stop just above the set up. I would like to see a strong follow on, representative of a wave 3 or C and breaks of support zones in short order. Fundamentals are the same as for Silver (see Silver Bullet thread) so perhaps we can anticipate a few weeks in any bearish move (or more whipsaw price action consolidation maybe). With a close stop and low exposure I am content to wait for price action to play out.
  4. Mercury

    Silver Bullet

    The whipsaw continues but now we appear to be at the moment of truth. Silver and Gold just took a run down along with an underlying USD rally. Looks like the markets are getting a bit nervy about the Fed decision at the end of the month. Still this is not yet resolved so could we see a breakout through that weekly LT resistance trend line and does that matter if Gold remains subdued? Short term, if we have just seen a top and small 1-2 retrace rally then a break below the 1H chart Triangle could indicate a Bearish phase. The move up looks to be a classic chaotic wave B within a consolidation Triangle (Weekly) also describing a series of A-B-Cs. In addition there is NMD between the A and C (brown), a good indicator of a retrace move termination. It does rather seem line Gold and Silver traders are looking to the Fed rate cut to stimulate further buying, whether as an inflation hedge or as a sign that the Economy is weak. We may have to wait until the end of the month for this to play out and that could mean more consolidation whipsaw price action or a full retrace move. Despite being a perma bear on stocks, I don't quite see this as a full turning point yet, but who really knows... For now I am content to chance a Short at such a pivotal resistance point, especially as I don't see the retrace as having fully played out yet and Gold has lost its oomph.
  5. Another small leg up to complete a 1-5 wave count and another test on the daily upper channel line? There is also a 1/4H channel, a break of which could coincide with some short term support. NMD on multiple time frames. This could be the market top but probably only a wave 3 (blue) to take price back down towards the lower daily channel line. I guess US open will tell the tale?
  6. EURGBP made a large run up off GBP weakness this yesterday and this morning. Now price has hit that long term resistance trend line. The last 3 times price was firmly rejected back from this line with daily and weekly pin bars. The obvious question is whether this time there will be a breakout to the upside or is this another turn in a very long Triangle consolidation?
  7. Trading is a frustrating enterprise @MYK1, as many people point out, losses are part of it. If you have good stop placement and you get taken out then this ought to have been a loss you were willing to bear (i.e. doesn't kill your account). It also means you can start fresh. In the case of GBPUSD the red line is around 12430. Below that a new set up must be sought (either a new wave 1 bottom or the beginning of a big drop (which ought to be mirrored in other pairs like EUR and AUD with a big rally in USD). Note, in my book it is perfectly feasible for GBP to put in a new wave 1 (and/or double bottom) and then rally but I would not hold a Long below the red line; I would wait for a new set of signals. Just for info, I did take a Long back at the breakout of the 1H channel, with a stop just below the red line, which I am still holding for a minimal loss if taken out. I did not add any further positions as I was expecting a pull back (EWT technique), and recent history suggested it would be a strong one (it clearly is, or will break lower...). That leaves me in a Long already so I will not think about trading another Long until I see a credible turn. As I noted on my EURUSD thread, there is a lower low (for a lower wave B) scenario there too, which must be watched as this is the main USD mirror. In addition, EURGBP has now put in a higher high and is approaching the long term overhead resistance trend line so ideally we need to see that turn for my lead GBP scenario to bear fruit. I will post on my Triad thread in due course. Net then I would not be going Long on GBPUSD until I saw a turn on price action, that ideally was backed up by other pairs (especially EURGBP, which means EUR could go lower while GBP rallies). Any Long should have a stop just below the red line (12430) as you don't want to carry the position into white space. It is all about minimising exposure and money management really.
  8. GBPUSD is taking it to the edge these days, last time a potential Wave B (green) just off the previous turn (wave 1) and now a retrace all the way to the Fib 88% and the previous 1H/4H channel breakout support zone. This is a critical moment for GBPUSD, will it now rally away from this support or break through to make new Daily chart lows? EUR is lagging and AUD remains strong, although I expect a retrace on the latter at some point.
  9. I'm kicking myself @Foxy If only I'd know it was that simple all these years... 🧙‍♂️
  10. Possible channel breakout on Dow open to add to the NMD and Daily chart upper channel line failed test.
  11. Fair enough @Foxy then why 30,000 and not 28000 or 29000? Got a particular reason for 30k?
  12. Thanks @GUOLIG alas I cannot read Greek (I think that is Greek anyway...) Looks like the retrace I was looking for is in play now. Where will it stop and turn (or will it just break on through to make new lower lows and thwart me yet again?) well let's wait and watch the price action for the telling of this tale. The beauty of getting in early on a turn is twofold: first you get to hold positions against a very deep retrace; second the exposure, if wrong, is very low. That is the position I am in on this market and on EUR an AUD so I can sit back and let it all happen. AUD is especially strong just now. As for GBP, well we saw a turn at a resistance zone after a 1-5 up on NMD, which bodes well for my medium term prognosis for a significant retrace rally. Could be a quick A-B is already done and we are in a swift wave C down to wave 2 (light blue) turn. EUR is lagging at present so watching the EURGBP third leg of the Triad could assist in pinpointing the turn (if it comes). At present GBP is looking weaker but the key to this is buying that weakness at the right moment. Currently I still favour either the Fib 62% or Fib 76/78% zones but let's see how the after noon progresses.
  13. Thanks @GUOLIG alas I cannot read Greek (I think that is Greek anyway...) Looks like the retrace I was looking for is in play now. Where will it stop and turn (or will it just break on through to make new lower lows and thwart me yet again?) well let's wait and watch the price action for the telling of this tale. The beauty of getting in early on a turn is twofold: first you get to hold positions against a very deep retrace; second the exposure, if wrong, is very low. That is the position I am in on this market and on EUR an AUD so I can sit back and let it all happen. AUD is especially strong just now. As for GBP, well we saw a turn at a resistance zone after a 1-5 up on NMD, which bodes well for my medium term prognosis for a significant retrace rally. Could be a quick A-B is already done and we are in a swift wave C down to wave 2 (light blue) turn. EUR is lagging at present so watching the EURGBP third leg of the Triad could assist in pinpointing the turn (if it comes). At present GBP is looking weaker but the key to this is buying that weakness at the right moment. Currently I still favour either the Fib 62% or Fib 76/78% zones but let's see how the after noon progresses.
  14. USD DX looks to have perhaps started a retrace/relief rally coming out of near term support on PMD. The wave 1 (light blue) could be seen as an A-B-C retrace or a 1-5 so a higher high for a new wave B (green) is possible. EURUSD will offer a better view on this I think.
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