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Mercury

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Mercury last won the day on March 7

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  1. Isn't that similar to what I said? Only US large caps to make new ATHs (if they do at all). FTSE100 and some others have already broken important support, I think they are on the way to 2016 levels and lower so same-same right? Some are in no mans land and could go either way. Overall I do not think we are quite there yet for the end of this extraordinary market phase. Regardless of whether you look at it from an EWT, Dow Theory or Wychoff Theory perspective it all amounts to the same thing. The only open issue for me is whether the current phase on US large caps is setting up a stronger relief rally (or new ATH) or is about to break down. If the latter is true then the floodgates should open for a drop at least twice what we have seen so far. If the former is true then we must wait for the next show to drop. I am minded to favour the former rather than the latter based on US large cap price action.
  2. Sugar has arrived at the Ice line support zone my technical analysis projected (and they say TA doesn't work... Well well there have always been flat earthers!). What next? Naturally either price bounces back off this zone and into a long term rally or it breaks back below it. I haven't a clue which TBH. My current line of thinking suggests a bounce but the price action on the weekly and monthly charts is strongly bearish and I can see the market heading below 1000 before the reflation trade as seems to be the case with many soft commodities at present.
  3. It certainly looks like it. Turned right on the Fib 50% too. I'd expect a relief rally at some point but when that is over it should be a straight run down to that 80c area.
  4. Gold continues to run but if the coronavirus end of the world narrative wanes and it all proved to be a media driven collective madness and stocks rally then Gold may yet produce that strong bearish move I have been expecting. Silver remains stuck in a LT consolidation and I can't see Gold getting to the extremes being talked up until Silver runs much hotter and stocks crater. There are too many gold bug bulls for the rally to be sustainable without a major crisis, which we do not yet have. Therefore the higher high on Friday (or maybe a little bit more early next week) could be signalling the end for now. The fast bearish candle towards the end of the days trading on Friday may be an indication of some profit taking to come. From a technical perspective I see the following: A 1-5 up to the current highs and another 1-5 on the final rally phase. NMD on all chart time frames (weekly; daily; 1H) and over bought oscillators Non commercials net Max COT bullish Spinning top candle on daily and strong end of trading bearish candle on the 1H on Friday
  5. Looking across most major indices it seems market tops and turns are in but for US large caps this is not yet clear. If the last hour on Friday was the first real buy the dips intervention then it would remain to be seen whether this carries to a new ATH or is just a relief rally prior to a major bearish move. MSM has turned very bearish over the overblown Hollywoodesque end of times narrative and the contrarian in me says... Not yet..! I am leaning towards a relief rally with a possibility that only US large caps make fresh ATHs or all only put in relief rallies. If you look at the FANGs the picture is bearish but far from conclusive so on balance I am not convinced that we are there yet and even if the top and turn is in a significant relief rally is indicated. Technically: Pin bar bounce off the LT supporting trend line (lower channel line) and another pin bar on Friday that could be a wave B. Gap above that ordinarily should be closed, unless it proves to be a breakway gap 1-5 up to the A or 1 turn and an A-B-C form bearish phase to the Fib 76/78% level and a strong rally candle in the last hour of live trading on Friday. PMD on the wave 1/4 (pink) and on the wave B/2 (blue) points to more in this rally. Possibility that a 1-5 down from wave B (green) is needed that would suggest another leg lower but for now it looks promising for a decent rally phase to kick off from Sunday/Monday, with or without that final lower leg. Possible correlation with a potential Gold bearish turn and USD relief rally and USDJPY rally.
  6. Still waiting for this pair to retrace to consider adding Shorts. A stocks rally would help, as would a general USD relief rally. Price has been stopped for now at the lower Triangle support line, let's see if this provides the springboard for a relief rally. If we do see a USD and Stocks rally then this pair could rally disproportionately higher than USD generally. LT the picture looks good for an extended and significant bear run, once the first relief rally is done. A H&S forming right should could be on but that is speculation at present, however it does fit with my DX analysis.
  7. Following on from my USD post I see GBPUSD as having broken out of that consolidation Triangle afer a failed retest of the previous Triangle breakout zone. Gap still to be closed above, may happen before or after a retest of the breakout, I'd expect a retrace at some point, which would offer a chance to get in Long. I see the base for this move of $1.27, a break of which would reverse the trend but hard to see that now. I see this as a wave 3 or C, which should run and run strong but I still see EURGBP as being bullish so either EURUSD is going to charge forwards of there will be a decent retrace on GBPUSD in the ST-MT. First LT traget is the channel line around 13800-14000 a break of which sets up a very long rally phase.
  8. USD bear turn looks complete to me, a little under my 10,000 target but no matter. After such a near vertical initial move I am waiting for the inevitable relief rally, although at this stage I am leaning toward this being relatively shallow, maybe to the Fib 38% levels rather than a 50 or 62 but let's see. Not saying the wave 1 turn is in yet but the pin bar price action on the daily on Friday could be setting up the turn, however the lack of a clean PMD (NMD on FX pairs) makes me thing we could see another lower low before the turn. For me I don't much care because I would be seeking to enter/add to FX pairs (preferably JPY and GBP) after said pull back not to trade the pull back itself so wait and see is my approach. If we look back at the bigger picture that A-B-C (Purple) is very much on, which places the markets in a wave C of B. The turn into wave C seems conclusive enough to me now just about tracking for a pull back entry point to get in on a decent wave 3 of C bear run for USD which could move quite quickly. Such a move would deliver many 1000s of points on key FX pairs and I see GBP doing better than the Euro. I don't see USD turning into it's big Bull phase until the Donald looses control of the Fed and/or the country (Biden is the bookies favourite apparently) AND stocks show a significant bearish trend, dare I say crash.
  9. Given the USD weakness, and not withstanding a potential relief rally there, I have changed my mind on GBPUSD. I now see a failed retest of the previous channel breakout within a consolidation Triangle. The bottom was reached on Friday at the Fib 50% and since then we have seen some whip saw followed by a rally yesterday and this morning. I think a break of the upper Triangle line will be compelling and there is a Gap up around 13,200 to be filled along the way. I see GBPUSD as a more compelling Long than EURUSD as my long term analysis of EURGBP suggests a bear market there. However EURUSD is likely to outperform in the short term I think.
  10. EURUSD seems to have broken a key LT trend line and now perhaps put in a retest fail. If this is confirmed with a new higher high then a strong rally phase is indicated (i.e. that USD bear I have been tracking is on!). May still get a second retest of the trend line or break out zone but otherwise looking good. I am not trading this pair as I have no faith in the Euro long term but other pairs look interesting, especially perhaps GBPUSD as USDJPY is dependent on a resumption of the Stocks bear.
  11. Gotta say USD looks to have turned earlier than I thought it would, mostly EURUSD driven it seems. Looking for a relief rally before things really get going with EURUSD current on a key LT resistance trend line and GBPUSD still looking bearish and USDJPY rallying behind a stocks buy the dip but when the relief rally is over then I think GBPUSD Longs will be the place to be and if this is correlated with a major stocks bear turn then USDJPY Short will also be a good bet. I do not thing EURO is the place to be. AUDUSD might work also.
  12. Stocks buy the dips put paid to further USDJPY bearishness and signals suggested a relief rally at least. I imagine the Bear will get going again when stocks turn again, especially now that USD looks to have turned.
  13. really..? You were a committed perma bull dip buyer just a week and a half ago... Why change when even LT Bears like me are suggesting a buy the dip is on the cards?
  14. Still think technical analysis is **** that only works in hindsight..?
  15. Updated Nadsaq Charts for Friday close. Note the pin bar bounce (daily chart) off the LT supporting trend line that now forms a key support level around 8200 (8100 bottom of the zone). My key oscillator indicators are all in over sold on the daily and shorter timeframe charts. I have PMD on the 1H chart and a ST 1-2 bearish retrace after the potential turn. Of course it is quite possible that price reverses sharply on the opening tonight but based on Friday's price action I am more inclined to the buy the dips scenario holding once again, especially after the late Fed jawboning on Friday, right out of the Draghi playbook... In terms of the next phase (other than a break of the 8100 level and slip into oblivion that is), I see the following: If the recent ATH was the top and turn then a strong retrace in A-B-C form to possibly close the gap. If the recent bear move was a 3-4 retrace, and as there is no NMD on weekly or daily charts this is quite likely in my view, then a new ATH is indicted. BUT given the nature of the bear move I see this scenario as very much an ending channel phase that will not soar to massive new highs but may make circa 10000 levels, which would be another touch on the LT resistance trend line. In terms of other indices, it may very well be that the other US large caps will not make fresh ATHs even if the Nasdaq does. The signals for a top and turn are stronger here, especially perhaps on the non Tech Dow Jones. There is NMD on the weekly but not on the daily charts for both SP and Dow so could go either way. FTSE100 and Russell 2000 still look like their much earlier tops are THE top and the Dax now looks like it may have posted a bull ending top with NMD at the turns. Dax has broken a key channel and FTSE is currently held at a crucial LT supporting trend line. We may very well see a small bearish retrace early on but then a rally away. A strong gap down and run through the lower support is the worry for anyone of a bullish mentality. Elsewhere I see Gold/Silver as having turned into a contrarian bear market. This isn't going to go straight down but would be consistent with another bull phase on stocks. Additionally I do not think USD has yet capitulated and see at a minimum a relief rally and possibly a new high on the move before it does switch to a MT bear phase .
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