Jump to content

Where next for AUDUSD?


Recommended Posts

What a difference a day makes!  When you think about it the move up yesterday was too strong to end there so both the Daily Tramline pair and the tentative Triangle have been proved wrong it seems and this market continues up, most likely now to a new higher high Wave 4 as per the alternative scenario I had been tracking.  Unless something truly unexpected happens like a massive rally I think we are down to one scenario only now unless there is a last minute reversal back down.  The higher high could come in the form of a double top of course.


I have redrawn my chart based on the new price information and have a large parallel tramline pair (blue).  The top line of which, plus the previously drawn green line, intersects with the down sloping tramline from the Weekly chart at various points in September and hanging above this is the Weekly chart Fib 50%.


The EWT A-B (Pink) are still valid so it just remains to be seen if the market falls short of the April 2016 high, makes a double top (rare) or pushes on to a new high Wave 4 (Purple).  Given other FX set ups I suspect we will see the latter with the USD strength returning toward the middle of the month with Sept 22 FOMC as the key determining factor for all USD FX pairs.  For me it is most likely that once a turn is put in this market will drop away as USD goes on a significant rally.




Link to comment

I think the AUD $ has been this years currency EWT mind twister lol. This is why anybody in this business knows that this is a constant ever learning process. Anyway from a perspective we could now be finally now resume the main overall trend to the downside and start W5 as of late Thursday the 8th. However I am not sure if this is dollar influence or the Australian economy just taking a hammering or their is expected more QE or interest rate cuts. Regardless of what the driving fundamental factors are, I don't think at this point in time it would be unfair to suggest the analysis charted below. By all means, suggest a different perspective.

Link to comment

I have exactly that scenario too  and agree this market has been challenging during this retrace with multiple scenarios and signals coming and going.  Accordingly I could not yet call this scenario and would need to see a break through my lower tramline and also the support zone (and Fib 50% from previous high-low).


The alternative scenario of a higher high wave 4 remains a valid one (see alternative EWT count in red).  Therefore we have the classic case of a pivotal point at or around my lower tramline with both a bounce back rally and a breakout down being possible.  Looking a the hourly chart I have an interesting set up with a confluence of the Daily tramline (remember it doesn't map right on PRT) a set of hourly parallel tramlines and the Fib 88% off the 31 Aug low.  The strength of the move down is hard to trade against but often such moves produce equal or stronger counter moves and thee move down can be described as an A-B with a 1-4 so far of C.


Therefore my bias (although not strong) is for a rally at the critical point so I will gear up for that an only consider a short on a break of the lower fib 50% level (7490).


Link to comment

Hi Mercury. As stated before, having this alternative W count can always help plan for a trade of a given alternative scenario. I think i would be correct, in you suggesting that this would be a double zig zag, which would therefore correspond with your alternative W count.

Because of the nature of this current complex market, and i mean seriously irritating market, i think we must also consider that if the EUR, GBP and Yen have their own bulls and bears to complete it would not be irrational to suggest that the aud $ would also have more to gain. Therefore if we fail to pass the end of W1 then the alternative W count is most likely in play.

Link to comment

Don't know much about double zigzags and all that  but I am wondering if we may get a double bottom at this strong support zone.  A turn here would bring a new Wave 4 high into play but a break would favour the downside scenario/  I find it hard to see the downside scenario if USD is set for some weakness.  Havign said that I expect EURUSD to show weakness before it rallies so let's see...


Link to comment

One reason I was confident of taking a Long here, as well as the primary analysis of course, is that GBPAUD looked like going into a retrace and with GBPUSD set for another rally after the current retrace move this added up to a strong rally on AUDUSD.  Even if you don't want to trade it there is benefit in looking at the whole Triad.


See GBPAUD charts for reference below:



Link to comment


This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • General Statistics

    • Total Topics
    • Total Posts
    • Total Members
    • Most Online
      10/06/21 10:53

    Newest Member
    Joined 08/12/23 12:13
  • Posts

    • Insightful write up. Personally, I use top down analysis to mark my pivot points and i prefer to call them zones. As seen from my ETH chart below, i have been swinging the bullish ride with my top down analysis. 
    • One exchange that checks the box interms of my own requirement is bitgetglobal. The exchange is reputable for been compliant with regulations globally, its copy trading is the largest with over 100k elite traders and 540k followers, its trading fees is amongst the lowest in the industry. The one area i feel they need to improve on is their P2P. This area is lagging compared to that of Binance and Bybit.
    • Here's the next set of TIME CYCLES - I've had these dates on my charts since 2015 ish Please note this is just to show you that the markets are not random and we can TIME them - the AIM of this thread is to SHOW you that dates calculated years in advance can be significant These Time Cycles are not all of them, just the ones I wanted to show you, which are the INTERNAL cycles of a bigger Time Cycle - some will hit and some won't - REMEMBER, lots of active cycles are ALL operating at the same time Notice that there's not a TC for the 2022 high - the reason is that there was one, it's just not part of this series of TC's I'm showing you - Then when we look backwards in 2034, you'll be able to see market price action around the dates and you will KNOW these are not random dates thrown on a chart in the hope of hitting - because If you are ignore the latter dates (not yet shown) in the cycle, then you will come a cropper and when Investments are concerned that will mean LOSING lots of your money I'm still using the screenshot taken in Oct 2020 - Once we complete 2025, I'll update the chart with price data and take a screen shot from then on for the next cycles The THICK BLACK line is the mid-point of the cycle, which in the grand scheme of things "should / is expected to be" a significant LOW point when viewed back in time from 2034! - It WILL NOT be a major low, so don't expect a humungous price crash to it, it will NOT be how you are imagining it in your head right now Notice that most of those cycles are "LINKED" that's because they are the same cycle which repeats THT
  • Create New...