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Well, Tom Bombadil? Sing us a new song.

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The following code is Pinescript (you can use it on tradingview.com).  It is the 'famous' 4-9-18 (E)MA crossover strategy.


strategy("3 MAcross_alert", shorttitle="MAcross_Alert", overlay=true)
EMA_Fast =input(4, minval=1) // To input period for 1st sma, default period set as 10
EMA_Medium =input(9, minval=1)
EMA_Slow =input(18, minval=1)
s1=ema(close,EMA_Fast) // sma values stored in s1 and s2 variables
plot(s1, color=#2196F3,linewidth=2) // Plots the MA
plot(s2, color=#FF9800,linewidth=2)
plot(s3, color=#9C27B0,linewidth=2)
long= crossover(s1,s2) and s2 > s3 // Define our buy/sell conditions, using pine inbuilt functions.
//long= close > s1 and s1 > s2 and s2 > s3
short= crossunder(s1,s2) and s1 < s2
//short= close < s1 and s1 < s2 and s2 < s3
//exitLong = crossunder(s1,s2)
exitLong= close < s3
exitShort = crossover(s1,s2) and s2 < s3
strategy.entry("long",strategy.long,when=long) // Buys when buy condition met
strategy.entry("short",strategy.short, when = short ) // Closes position when sell condition met


Try applying it to the various indices on a 15 minute time frame.

For example on the U.S. 30, 15 minute time frame, it gives this:

Net Profit
$ 2852.40
2.85 %
$ 3318.70
3.32 %
$ 466.30


I did manage to tweak the exit conditions to get this to generate profit going short as well as long but I've forgotten what it was.  Otherwise you would only ever take long trades on this market.

The maximum drawdown was $ 2160.60

The real kicker though, is the equivalent buy and hold profit: $ 25609.35

Interestingly - if you apply it to other indices such as Australia 200 and French 30 the exact same system generates a pure loss (it makes profit on several others)  Hence, the same MAs on the same time frame do not generate results for different securities that are remotely similar.  (So much for the techniques of TA being applicable to everything.)

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20 hours ago, dmedin said:

the same MAs on the same time frame do not generate results for different securities that are remotely similar


And there's nothing to suggest that these EMAs will keep on working on the DJIA into the future, either. 

So, we have made another discovery: the same TA approach, applied to different markets, different times, or the same market at different times, provides completely different results.  :D 

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The search goes on though.  Why?

With buy and hold we typically have to buy an ETF.  There are plenty of S&P 500 ETFs, but few for indices like Nasdaq and Dow Jones.  (I found a good Nasdaq ETF, but it's about $500 for a single share.)

Also, we have no chance of profiting from shorting unless we buy short ETFs, which are probably more arcane and pointless even than spread betting.

Also, we have no exposure to FX or commodities if we buy and hold.  But then again, why should a fat smelly punter sitting at home in his underpants (like me) have 'access' to complex financial instruments in the first place :D 

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