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Market wide Gaps! Breakout or retrace?


Mercury

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In classic charting lore price gaps are almost always closed and quite quickly.  The main exceptions being the so-called "breakaway gap" and "continuation gap".  The former is essentially a major reversal in trend, does last nights gap feel like that?  The latter signals a resumption of a long term trend after a significant retrace (essentially a mini reversal) and often occurs around the halfway point in a major trend but this gap is going in opposition to the recent trend and I find it hard to believe we are at the halfway point of a long term rally...

 

Therefore I would expect the overnight gaps to be closed and reasonable soon.  Depending on the specific market this may signify different things.  For stock indices my road map suggests gap closure and continuation down to a lower low.  However on Oil I think the gap closure represents a retrace before a longer rally.

 

Given the proximity of the US election I am risk off at present but if I weren't I would be waiting for gap closures before deciding on my next move.  Oil and copper represent interesting markets that are largely unaffected by the US election nonsense.  Copper barely registered any gap and on Oil it was very small and within normal operating experience.

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Guest Futures

EURUSD retraced it on SUN to 111010 but not the whole overnight range on FRI I lost triple on my weekend trade stop loss I can't complain I made nice 4Gs on this gap trade sometime back and lost just .7Gs this time better be lucky than right

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