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Are pre election jitters returning?


Mercury

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In a previous post I outlined a route map down to a wave 4 turning point back up on the S&P, which called of a wave 3-4 retrace to a recent Triangle line breakout down.  The market has just done that off the back of the FBI news on Sunday night together with a significant price gap.  My view is that the price gap is likely to be closed and if it is then the turn could happen around currently levels at the Triangle retest.  If we then see a lower low the Fib 50% support zone is the next most likely turning point (one assumes only if Clinton wins tomorrow).  FWIW the Triangle line also coincides with a Fib 38% of the wave down top (at the wave 2 turn) and NMD on the hourly chart.

 



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Always the danger, that if we get a Hillary Clinton victory this market rallies far to fast, which can happen even with W5's. However we have so far encountered a strong decending resistance line at present. Therefore i could not say if we have truly ended, but in the case of a Clinton Victory you would expect  high probability of a rally.



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I think you can be almost certain that the algos will go nuts with a rally on a Clinton victory, just look at what we saw on Sunday night with the FBI thing, if that isn't a harbinger I don't know what is.  It looks like I drew my Triangle line in the wrong place and now the S&P is finding resistance at my revised line and Fib 50%.  I see something similar on the FTSE, probably we will see a small rally this morning followed by some fall back as initial Trump momentum news comes in early but this is academic for me as I am not trading this until the election call is made.

 



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