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Windsurfing in a winter whirlwind


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Ironic, when the most unstable of forces (Trump) finally exits, under duress, stage left, the worlds economies get exactly no time to breathe a sigh of relief. For the 2nd Friday in a row, nervous profit taking abounds. Markets , almost in totality are on the move and heading south for the winter (it seems). Naturally the outlier is Bitcoin, which is like the mad cousin at a family reunion where no one is quite sure what they will say or do next. 

It would appear that markets are becoming aware that the virus is not just going away. Far from it. More of the world is locking down again, even as the vaccines are rolled out post haste. This would appear to give a different complexion to the rosy, the only way is up, opinions of legions of equity traders, who may end up being skinned by forces so much bigger than themselves. Was it ever thus? Perhaps the way of the contrarian may be an apt strategy  in this climate of uncertainty. Certainly till spring. Perhaps one may be advised to take profits when they are there and not wait for more. and move quickly.  Position traders may have to adapt accordingly, especially if the day of the week ends in "y".

It is interesting to see the inflation figures both for the US and Uk. it would appear the trend is on the up. Considerably so in the case of the US. This does not translate so well for equity, but is converse for commodities, especially food. We shall have to keep a ken eye on the weather. 

Am hedging furiously currently, though am of the bias confidence will return when the (Covid hospital and death)  numbers show sustained reduction. For how long is a moot point, but long enough for a decent swing (imo).

It's like windsurfing when it's too windy really to windsurf. You either get better at windsurfing, get very wet and a bit scared or, at worse drown. Beware out there, it's blowing a hooley!

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    • If we could get some news about negotations and a possible ceasefire in Ukraine then i would say this is the bottom https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed "That indicator previously fell to 0 in August 2002, July 2008, September 2011, September 2015, January 2016 and March 2020, observed Hartnett. When it has previously zeroed out, except in the case of a double-dip recession such as 2002 or in the event of systemic events, as in 2008 and 2011, three-month returns have been strong, as the table below shows." https://www.marketwatch.com/story/based-on-history-the-next-bull-market-is-just-months-away-and-could-take-the-s-p-500-to-6000-says-bofa-11655475414
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